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Robert Doll, equity strategist for Black Rock, the world's largest money manager, says the growing population of the U.S. will drive economic growth in the next decade compared to Japan and Europe. He says that over the next two decades the U.S. work force will grow by 11%, Europe's will decline by 5%, and Japan's will decline by 17%. China's population growth will be only slightly more than that of the U.S. during that period and Doll expects China's growth to slow. He sees America as the best bet in a bad neighborhood. Higher immigration in the U.S. is a huge positive, as he points out economic growth is simply the product of the change in the size of the work force multiplied by its productivity. And America's productivity is good enough compared to other nations, is how Doll sees it. In 1995 the U.S. produced 25% of the world's goods and services, it was still 25% in 2010 says Doll. Other economists have pointed to this and observed a similiar pattern for most of the twentieth century. Doll sees this pattern continuing. India's population will show signficant growth and he sees greater opportunity there for long term investing. Doll sees a decoupling between U.S. stock markets and high unemployment. Most of the large U.S. companies generate a large portion of their sales and profits overseas. He estimates 40% of the business of these companies is overseas. Doll's estimate is for 70% of the incremental earnings growth of the S&P 500 companies coming from overseas markets. He also expects higher inflation with the Fed keeping it from getting out of control, and deficit cutting efforts to cut some trillions over the years. He sees favorable prospects for equities based on the money growth being strong and credit markets being good....

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Problems facing S. Africa include the high unemployment rate of 24% and the funding of social grant programs for the unemployed. As it stands today with the increase in population and the economy unable to create enough jobs, there are more people on the social grant program (similiar to welfare, disability and social security payments in the U.S.), than there are people working. Only 10% of S. Africans pay taxes which starts at 120,000 rand, or about $15,230. The numbers of people on social grant payments are growing at five times the rate of people added for income tax payments. And there is concern about the tax base's ability to sustain this in the future as population grows. The awards are now at 3% of GDP or $13.4 billion.

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Sweden which appeared resilient in the early part of the eurozone financial crisis is seeing a sharp slowdown in exports. The government growth forecasts show a steep decline in growth to 1.1% in GDP and unemployment at 8.2% in 2013 as eurozone exports decline. GDP growth forecast for 2014 is at 3%. The decline is from the 3.7% growth in 2011. About a third of Swedish exports go to the eurozone countries. Sweden's steel company SSAB has put workers on a 4 day work week and a 20% wage reduction as demand declines. Finance minister Anders Borg says "Our assessment is that Sweden is facing a couple of lean years. It is becoming clearer that the crisis in Europe and developments in the U.S. are again costing jobs and weighing on growth in Sweden."

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Interview with Robert Shiller of Yale University, by Simon Constable of the Wall Street Journal. Shiller tells Constable that the second dip recession is imminent. Shiller senses that when the National Bureau of Economic Research looks at third quarter data for 2010, it will find that the second dip of the recession started here. In other comments Shiller said that the U.S. is standing at the edge of deflation. The view on housing markets of Shiller, who is one of the creators of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, is that housing prices could decline for the next 5 years. Shiller sees the US's chief concern as unemployment. He suggests that local governments and the federal government create jobs. One idea is to have a teacher's aide in each classroom.

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Greg Ip says all the data show the economy is much stronger with low unemployment and inflation coming down, yet for the nation people are not so upbeat, and for their own state really upbeat. He attributes it to the general mood of uncertainty of people, and the negativity with which the media presents news. Some clues to what they actually believe can be seen below the superficial look at the data. For instance as people surveyed say they feel the economy is much worse today by a significant margin for the whole nation they say just the opposite for their own state by an equally significant margin. Listen to this- the WSJ poll Greg Ip cites shows US economy is getting worse or better in the graph. For the US it shows 31% think it is getting worse. The opposite for Arizona 30% and Pennsylvania 25% think it is getting better. In other states people say it is about 18% better- the states are Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada. This suggests that the surveys have to be looked at from the perspective of their own state which reflect the data which clearly shows a big improvement. Greg Ip says the WSJ has seen this in another place, when people are about Congress they say its looking worse, when asked about their own state Congressman they say just the opposite and quite favorable. It is something that is important to bear in mind in 2024 and for the future, the American people are still rational and science based in their thinking, as they have been throughout the nation's history pioneering in the Industrial Revolution. ...

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Hillary Clinton narrowly loses the Michigan primary to Bernie Sanders in March 2016, as the Sanders campaign focusses on Clinton's support for trade agreements that hurt American workers and lead to loss of manufacturing jobs. About three fifths of voters in the Michigan primary considered this a major issue. Many less educated younger workers see their job prospects diminish and wages drop with free trade that hurts American manufacturing jobs. Bill Clinton signed the NAFTA agreement with Mexico, and as a member of the Obama administration Clinton supported the Trans Pacific Trade Agreement, later opposing TPP when she left the cabinet. Sentiment against trade that hurts manufacturing jobs in the U.S. is strongest in midwestern states such as Michigan, Ohio and Illinois. This was also a major issue benefitting the Liberals under Justin Trudeau who won in Canada's industrial Ontario province which has suffered hollowing out and loss of manufacturing jobs under the Conservative Harper administration. In the U.S. the issue goes back to the Clinton Administration for two decades. New jobs created by Apple, Google, and other tech companies pale in comparison with the industrial jobs created in another era that benefitted working class families. This issue and high unemployment or under employment, lower wages for working class families, was a major issue in the 2016 U.S. presidential election campaign. Widening wealth disparities, and lack of upward mobility, high tution and healthcare costs for ordinary families, dominated the campaign in the U.S....

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Critics say China's currency is undervalued by 20%. China is only willing to increase the value of the yuan by 3% this year, fearing that a signifcant revaluation will lead to the closure of textile and other factories in the coastal areas that operate on a small profit. Facing high unemployment the US is not willing to let this happen gradually. US businesses that manufacture in the US and export to China would benefit if the yuan appreciates significantly. Retailers such as Wal-Mart and textile producers with offshore manufacturing at contract sites in China are on the other side as they benefit from the lower value of the Chinese currency.

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The Washington Post cites researchers at the University of Chicago about the kind of economy Biden achieved by Jan 2025-

“Under the Biden administration, real GDP rose 12.6 percent, rightly cheered ... as ‘a historically robust expansion’ that repeatedly defied forecasts. Since the pandemic, economic growth in the US has far outpaced that of our peer nations. Business investment is up; unemployment is low.”

As a new DJT administration takes over in the US it has the potential of carrying on the task of rebuilding infrastructure, and strengthening the economy,  tackling cost of living, income indisparities, with greater involvement of the private sector, in the same way that some of the priorities of the first DJT administration such as infrastructure and bringing jobs home in manufacturing were taken up by the Biden administration with participation of the US government in rebuilding the economy.

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The US is on track to bring back 350,000 jobs in 2022 that were taken overseas during the two decades of hyper growth in China, according to the Reshoring Initiative. A false idea was created mostly by economists and business that shifted jobs to China during two Democratic and one Republican administration, the Clinton, Obama and the Bush administrations, that this would benefit the American workers and families through lower prices at the retail level. It ignored the severe damage this would do to jobs, incomes and whole communities when factories on which they depended for a living were shipped overseas. It damaged labor in ways that destroyed much of the American working class and the families built during the years of FDR, Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson. Business failed during this period to meet the challenge of higher American wages and productivity issues by using innovation and other steps to keep manufacturing at home.  This led to the hyper growth that did not benefit China, because a moderate pace of growth would have helped China control the rampant contamination of its air, water and soil. It also was leading China to a dead end reached during the 2016 election campaign with the election of president Trump with deep discontent from workers in midwestern states. The pandemic simply underscored the need for supply chains that were close to home and reliable in crises. By 2020 president  Biden was committing to a restructuring of the supply chains and pushing forward with it with legislation in the $369 billion Climate bill, and SCIENCE and Chips Act, to make solar panels, semiconductors and other products in the US. Reports from China showed that growth was slight or flat during 2022 and youth unemployment at 20%. The policy was to shift people back from the cities to the rural areas and support the informal economy, a sense of nationalist sentiment, and preparing for a future where the supply chain for the US and the European Union had moved away from China. In the long run the policies now look as ones that benefitted neither the US, the European Union, India or China.  ...

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Grim warning from chief scientific and medical advisors to the British government that we are not through this yet, there is more ahead. Without strong action there could be 200 deaths a day and 50,000 cases a day, says Sir Patrick Valance, chief scientific adviser. Tens of thousands of deaths could happen in the winter and there is little prospect that restrictions can be lifted for the next 6 months. The chief medical officer to the government says if we do too little the virus is going to take off. Sir Patrick Valance said at a joint appearance with Whitty in Downing Street that if the virus doubles in 7 days, then if we have 5000 cases a day, it would be 10,000 the next week, 20,000 the next week and 40,000 a day the week after. In a month we could be near 50,000 a day. The vaccine the advisors said may be available to small groups by the end of 2020, only in the first half of 2021 will it be a likely scenario of it being available in widespread way. On protection they say most of us are not protected only about 6-8% may be protected in the hope that immunity is gained by having been infected and developing antibodies. We have to deal with it collectively for the next 6 months as it is now growing across the whole country, not just in some places or environments. Doing too little is dangerous and could let it take off speedily and affect hospitals again, doing too much so that unemployment is affected and poverty social deprivation happens is also to be kept in mind. ...

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The Fed and FDIC issue a report on the failure to regulate SVB and Signature bank. It says the failure to regulate stems from the law passed by Congress leaving a gap for regulation of mid sized banks, and the appointment of Randall Quarles to the Fed supervisory position by then president Trump in 2019. The result was a 40% decline in hours spent by supervisory regulators on the SVB bank even as its assets grew rapidly. Overall the supervisory hours for the Federal Reserve system as a whole declined. This led to cultural issues under Mr. Trump where less regulation the better was the prevailing attitude. Fed report in Fedspeak says- "Staff felt a shift in culture and expectations from internal discussions and observed behaviour that changed how regulation was executed." It would take a special effort by the Biden administration to bring the situation under control to keep the nation's banking system healthy and strong to support the investments the economy needs. After the 2009 crisis and the decade lost to the US economy and the American people from losses in unemployment and savings as a result of deregulated banks, another crisis was prevented. This time the Fed, FDIC, General Accountability Office are all clear about the value and role of regulation in a properly functioning economy, instead of the pushback after the 2009 crisis to regulation. Once again president Biden has shown the way.   ...

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Improving business conditions and lower unemployment are helping president Macron of France recover from a drop in popularity following the yellow vest protests. Macron tackled the crisis by changing his style of governance from top down to a listener style with regular town hall meetings and meetings with people who were critical of his government. Recent poll from Elabe shows 33% approve of the French leader compared to 23% in December 2018 at the height of the yellow vest protests. The yellow vest protests were from people who felt left out at the lower end of the wage scale who were protesting increasing inequality. Macron also offered minimum wage earners billions of dollars and shelved his economic agenda till he had a better grasp of the French public's opinions. The recovery in the economy means Macron has more flexibility in taking up priority items in the national agenda. The French pension system is fragmented with about 43 different plans, with some plans for transport workers offering generous retirement by age 52. The system is also likely to go into deficit of 10 billion euros in 2022. Brazil has run into major economic crisis from generous pension plans taking up a major part of the budget. Macron wants to increase the number of years people work before they collect pensions, not just increase the retirement age of 62. Most major European countries are at 65 years retirement age, the U.S. is at 66 years. Transport workers paralysed the nation's transport system including subways and bus systems recently to keep their generous benefits. Macron sees himself as promoting a national agenda similar to India for GST, and other countries tackling shortfall in pension systems by increasing the retirement age, even though in the short run people who benefit from the old system oppose it. By addressing grievances at the lower wage levels and tackling glaring issues in the way benefits such as pensions are distributed Macron can win enough support to offset the opposition of entrenched groups. Lawyers will see their pension contributions double for lower benefits and are opposing the pensions overhaul. For decades workers in different groups or sectors took to the streets in protest making any changes even if well thought out and in the national interest hard to make in France. By taking on entrenched groups tactically and first letting the groups express their sentiment before announcing top down changes, and by being an empathetic listener, Macron is showing that he has learned a lot from the past year without losing his sense of what is best for France. It just maybe that in the short run there is an offset gaining some support from neutral groups and losing support of entrenched groups. Yet in the long run when the dust settles there is more overall support particularly through empathetic listening and carefully planned flexible approach to making changes that improve the economy and reduce unemployment. ...

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This editorial in the WSJ points out that U.S. president Obama made economic inequality "the defining challenge of our time" in his State of the Union address in 2013, yet the U.S. has seen widening economic and social disparities in his two terms- creating the situation where Bernie Sanders is now in a virtual tie in Iowa with Hillary Clinton. It says Hillary Clinton wins handily over Sanders on three of four issues of the most concern for Democratic caucus voters in pre-entrance polls, healthcare, terrorism, and on the important issue of jobs and economy by 51% to 42%. Where she falls behind is on the issue of income inequality, and by a very wide margin reflecting voter disillusionment with policies that resulted in marginalization of some workers through globalization and long term unemloyment, and reduced access to education with high tution costs- there Sanders wins by 61% to 34%. Federal Reserve policies that kept rates low near zero hurt middle class savers, working class savers, and benefitted disproportionately upper class investors in the stock market, widening the social and economic disparities....

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When the president and his administration are investing trillions of dollars in the economy as Biden is doing with support from friends in Congress from both parties and the US economy is growing with Made in America reviving American manufacturing- this changes the way labor and immigration can be viewed. There is an expanding demand for labor in such an economy and this is true today. Paul Krugman in the NYT shows evidence that the native born Americans have not lost jobs to immigrants in 2019-2024. Much of the demand in the restaurant, hotels and health care industries, in construction, agriculture and occupations native born Americans are less interested in filling are filled by entry level workers who are immigrants. The Wall Street Journal showed in a recent report that Topeka, Kansas is trying to recruit new immigrants to come and live in Kansas where the unemployment rate is lower than the national average today under Biden of 3.7%, and there are thousands of jobs to be filled. This is why Senator Graham of South Carolina and Tillis of North Carolina, the senior Republicans in the Senate, were trying to fix asylum and parole policies in immigration with the help of president Biden to close the border and yet allow an organized flow of new immigrants to the US to fill jobs that would otherwise remain unfilled. Not everybody wants to live in Topeka but there are immigrants such as the Venezuelan and Colombian immigrants shown in that report who are happy to live in the Kansas winters in the prairies of the American heartland. Many come from educated backgrounds and are similar to other Americans already in Topeka such as the mayor of the town, and fit in well say officials in Topeka promoting economic development in the state. It is noteworthy that Kansas is a Republican state for decades.  ...

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David Segal takes a detailed look inside Apple's retail stores in the U.S. and talks with employees at different stores to find out what its like working as an hourly employee at an Apple store. World wide Apple's 327 global stores sold $16 billion in Apple products. Per employee the sales are about $473,000, but at an hourly rate of about $12 the average employee makes about $25,000 per year. After recent wage raises this could be up to about $36,000. The National Retail Federation says electronics stores have about an average of $206,000 in sales per employee. Contrary to what most people may think most of Apple's employees are not engineers and other professionals, about 30,000 of the 43,000 Apple employees in the U.S. work as hourly employees in the retail stores. Most are young people in the early 20's, single, with health insurance provided by Apple not costing as much for that age group. There is no career path and most leave after a couple of years. Because of the Apple mystique and the drive to create new user friendly products there are many young people looking for this kind of temporary work, especially now with high unemployment. ...

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The record shows that like other industrial states such as Illinois, Michigan and Ohio, Massachusetts lost many manufacturing jobs during the period 2003-2007, when Romney was Governor of Massachusetts. At the end of 2002 there were 338,000 manufacturing jobs in Massachusetts, by 2007 this had declined by 12% to 298,000, according to Andrew Sum, an economist at Northeastern University. Romney cites a drop in the unemployment rate from 5.6% to 4.7%. Prof. Sum who heads the University's Centre for Labor Market Studies, says this was people left the workforce during this period in large numbers. He says only Louisiana of all U.S. states had a bigger decline in the labor force when it was hit by Hurricane Katrina. The dot com bubble burst during the period before Romney took office. Massachusetts had already lost 158,000 jobs in 2001-2002 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Romney was unable to do much to reverse the job losses that continued during his term in office.

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How temp services companies such as Kelly Girl and Manpower were started in the post war period. What this means in today's economy with the increase in temp and part-time workers without worker protections and benefits. The trend to temp workers without contracts or protection is seen in Germany, Spain, Japan and other countries. Hatton cites Census Bureau statistics showing one third of adults experiencing poverty are working, one fourth of jobs in America pay less than the federal poverty line of $23,050. In the U.S., Europe and Japan it is not only the jobs that matter but the kind of jobs. Even in countries such as Germany that reduced the unemployment rate this came with a downside in the higher number of lower paying jobs. Temporary workers almost doubled in two decades in Japan to 33% of workers by 2007. Some of the difficult work after the nuclear accident in Japan was performed by temporary workers.

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A shift in priorities away from focussing on high growth to lower sustainable growth was announced by China's premier Wen Jiabao at the National People's Congress, China's parliament, in March 2012. This shift will reduce investment in infrastructure, power generation and exports, which will affect the level of imports of commodities from commodity producing nations in the Middle East, Australia, Canada and Brazil. It should increase imports of software, computers, entertainment, tourism and high tech goods from the U.S. and Europe. Chinese leaders have said they would make this kind of shift for some years now but growth has consistently increased more than the target rate, and domestic consumption as a percentage of the economy has actually decreased in the last decade. Now 9-10% growth rates may be a thing of the past and the target of 7.5% set this year may be actually closer to the real figure. The Chinese leaders have belatedly realized the need to make these changes now because slowing markets in Europe -which is seeing declining growth and high unemployment- and in the U.S., make the issue impossible to avoid. Wen told the Congress: "Accelerating the transformation of the pattern of economc development... is both a long term task and our most pressing task at present... Domestically it has become more urgent but also more difficult... to alleviate the problem of unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable development." This is his way of saying that its unavoidable and better to start in earnest now, and at the same time recognizing the resistance to change from the stateowned companies and the other interests who have benefitted from surging growth, and now occupy a central role in the power structure. An opinion article in the People's Daily, China's official newspaper, said: "imperfect reforms are to be preferred to a crisis caused by no reforms." The World Bank's president Zoellick is respected by the Chinese leaders. He also urged them to make changes now. The recent report of the DRC, China's planning research arm, and the World Bank, also laid out the new direction away from a focus on infrastructure to domestic consumption. The fear is sudden deceleration in the absence of policy action. The impact of this will be negative for commodities over time, leading to slower growth in Australia, Brazil, and Canada. It should boost imports from Europe and the U.S. of high tech, consumer, pharmaceutical goods over time....

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The Journal profiles the small company of Dell'Orco & Villani in Prato, in the Tuscany region of Italy, in the context of the eurozone financial crisis in Greece, Italy and Spain. The Italian economy is dominated by such companies that have remained small and decided not to grow because of the difficulties facing them in the form of red tape, the slowness of courts in enforcing contracts, and labor laws that make it harder to hire employees and retrench in a recession. Today Italy's economy is only 3% larger than 10 years ago. Companies with less than 20 workers dominate the economies of southern European countries, employing 60% of the workforce in Italy and Greece, and half the workforce in Spain and Portugal. This compares with 30% in Germany and 20% in the U.S., according to the O.E.C.D. Businesses face an average of 258 days to get permits to open a new warehouse in Italy, compared to 26 in the U.S., according to the World Bank. Enforcing a contract in court could take as long as 1210 days in Italy compared to 300 days in France and the U.S. Italy's postwar economic recovery was based on these small firms around cities like Turin, or textile locations such as Prato. But building economies of scale has eluded these firms, and businessman from that period such as the elder Dell'Orco are content with remaining small. The Dell'Orco family firm makes machines that recycle plastics, rubber and other junk into fibers that can be used for carpets or clothing. The firm has trouble making a decision to hire a new younger worker to do work after four older workers retired. The company makes the machine that only does the first stage of the processing, referring customers to another firm in Prato for the second machine. Most decisions including a tiny showroom are made in excruciatingly slow fashion because they go through the family patriarch, the 91 year old founder. The son and granddaughter defer to him in all decisions. An unsold machine costing 400,000 euros sits in the factory after one buyer decided to delay the purchase, making it risky to grow. During the pre-euro period of the last two decades Italian businesses could take advantage of the regular devaluations of the lira to price below their competitors in Germany and other countries. During the last two decades competition from emerging market economies S.Korea, China and India have added to problems competing in global markets, without the advantages of scale. The inability to hire younger workers hurts unemployment for the young- youth unemployment in Italy is 29% in 2011....

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David Reilly warns that though the U.S. Federal Reserve's stress tests of U.S. banks showed they passed- including approval for dividends and share buyback- except for Ally Financial and Citigroup, this can be deceptive. True, the Fed used 13% unemployment and sharp drop in stock market prices as conditions. The problem is with capital ratios. The Fed used a leverage ratio of 3%. It should not be forgotten that the financial crisis of 2008 was caused by excessive leverage and risk. Tested on this measure the banks fail to achieve safe levels of leverage and risk. Under the Fed's highest stress scenario Citigroup ratio was at 2.9%, Morgan Stanley's at 3.4%, Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan at 3.8%- what ths means is that the leverage for these banks was at 26-29 times capital. Reilly raises the question- how is this so different than the leverage used by these banks before the crisis. The stress tests in the U.S. by the U.S. Federal Reserve are lauded for being better than the European Banking Authority's stress tests, but is this a standard by which to judge them? Before the collapse of Lehman in 2008, experts including Anil Kashyap at the University of Chicago, pointed out that for every $1 of bank losses in a deleveraging cycle bank lending goes down at banks by $10, and for investment banks at $20-$30 depending on leveraging- in David Henry and Matthew Goldstein, Business Week, July 16, 2008, How Bad Will It Get on Wall Street? Lehman's leverage ratio was between 24-31 times capital before the crisis. Worse, by saying banks are now safe compared to the situation before the crisis, is the Fed giving the green light to banks for some of the same leveraging behaviour that ocurred before the crisis?...

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The Bureau of Labor Statiistics puts out a statistic each month, called the JOLTS for Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which shows how many job openings there are in the US. This statistic stood at 2.2% for February 2009, down from 3% in Feb 2008, and this is 2.2% of all the jobs in the USA, which comes to about 3 million. The Conference Board's report shows 3.2 million online advertised vacancies as of March 2009. The odd thing is that there are so many advertised vacancies when the unemployment rate has shot up in the same year from 4.8% to 8.1%. The implications are serious. First there is a mismatch in qualifications. As jobs are lost in construction and the financial industry and in retail, new jobs are appearing in health care, education, government and accounting. This structural shift is happening quicker than the market can respond, or faster than labor retraining has time to respond. And compounding this the severe housing market leaves people unable to sell their homes and move. This makes for a less mobile labor market than the US has had in the past. With the government stepping in to ease the burden of unemployment there may be even less incentive to move. And those that move will have to accept the lower pay in new careers , and employers will have to settle for imperfect fits in filling vacancies. To reduce the mismatch in qualifications governments will have to ramp up their job retraining programs. ...

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Scott Bessent, DJT's senior most economic executive says-“There’s nothing that tells me that Powell should step down right now. He’s been a good public servant." The media is making much out of DJT criticism of US central bank Fed chairman Powell. Yet Powell is one of the original appointments by DJT in 2018 and has done his job carefully and methodically, explaining to the public each step of the way. He correctly pointed out the role of supply chain in inflation during covid and was careful to calibrate his moves so that the Fed is ready to respond but does not overreact. His explanations were direct and his manner humble enough to get him respect. In fact DJT may have made one of his best appointments in Jay Powell who was nominated in the Senate by a vote 84-13 in 2018. Compared to his predecessors his style and work carefully monitoring inflation and unemployment to strike the right balance is far better than any of his predecessors going back to the 1980's, and complements the work done on trade for a level playing field by DJT.     ...