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David Leonhardt on the policy errors of the Obama administration in managing the economy. Why he asks did the Obama administration not take the risks it took for "undeserving" recipients in the auto industry to provide significant help to GM and Chrysler and at the same not provide large scale and situation changing help to millions of mortgage holders who were under water? The housing crisis with millons of foreclosures depressing home prices has played a significant part in the lagging economic recovery. He points out that Obama economic advisors had read Rogoff and Reinhart's book "This Time Its Different," about the longer times it takes for a economic recovery after a housing bubble, and still made the mistake of believing economists who suggested that the stimulus by itself would be sufficient and that recovery was underway in 2010. Others in the Democratic party had pointed to the lack of focus on unemployment by the Obama administration. Why were such voices not heard?

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Washington Post editorial on the Obama Georgetown speech of April 13, 2009. It questions whether President Obama has the candour and courage to tackle the tough issues of deficit reduction and entitlement reform. New healthcare spending for coverage itself will add to entitlement, and it says some of the savings mentioned by the President are phony or already needed for new spending for the economic recovery and health care. At the same time the paper gives Obama good marks for his clarity and grasp of the crisis and steps for recovery, and the policy agenda in the areas of health care, energy and education. The questions about courage and candor also raise all the questions about facing upto the facts about insolvent banks that Krugman, Rosenfeld, the Economist and others have raised. Is Obama dodging the hard choices, is he dithering? On the toughest issues like foreclosures, insolvent banks, global regulation pushed by the Europeans, will he end up making inadequate or faulty choices, and when he comes around to making the tough choices, will he have lost so much valuable time as to prolong the crisis and stretch it out to many years....

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Bernanke's defense of the action of the Fed's monetary policy making committee, on November 3, 2010, (with a vote of 10-1) to buy an additional $600 billion of Treasury securities over the next 8 months. His defense focusses on the prospects of deflation- how low inflation can morph into deflation (falling prices and wages), that can create a long period of economic stagnation. In addition, with low and falling inflation, Bernanke sees spare capacity in the US that can be utilized to reduce the number of jobless people. He points to the rise in stock prices and fall in long term interest rates in anticipation of the Fed's action, as evidence that this Fed move would improve financial conditions. Lower mortgage rates would make housing more affordable, higher stock prices would increase consumer wealth, confidence and spending. Spending would lead to higher incomes and profits for economic expansion, from this viewpoint. The situation in November 2010, was a deepening housing slump anticipated for 2011, gridlock after the 2010 midterm elections and no agreement on additional stimulus for 2011, the need to rebalance the global economy lacking cooperation from China (with China increasing imports and reducing exports and the US increasing exports and reducing imports). Fed's Bernanke does not mention these factors, and only hints at the gridlock towards the end of the statement. This Fed action will push the dollar lower, just as efforts to improve exports and the trade balance are underway. The Fed's committee sees the risks of commodities inflation as an acceptable risk in the current situation, and the use of a cautious approach assessing the purchase program regularly as sufficient measure of safety. As to difficulties of the unwinding of these policies, the Fed sees present danger outweighing the risks of no action. For emerging markets such as Turkey, India, Australia and other countries seeing even more inflows of capital, the risks are left to these countries to manage. The central banks of India and Australia moved to increase interest rates at the same time that the Fed made its move....

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Ezra Klein cites Ed Luce, who writes in the Financial Times, that the real unemployment rate in the U.S. is 11%, when you count people who have no job but have given up looking after months of fruitless searching. These are the long term unemployed and pose risks for the economy and for society. Compared to 2007, the percent of people in the U.S with a job or actively looking for work has dropped from 62.7% to 58.5%. Luce's 11% is arrived at by considering these 62.7%, including millions of workers who have quit looking but would start looking again if the labor market brightens. This is important because U.S. government statistics show unemployment dropping below 9% in November 2009, supposedly an improvemment, when its actually the reverse that is actually happening. The real underemployment is nearly 20%.

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Brazil's GDP increased by 0.34% for the 4th quarter of 2011 from the prior quarter. For the full year GDP increased by 2.7%, with an actual decline in GDP for the third quarter of 0.1%. The GDP growth for 2010 was 7.5%. The slowing economic growth reflects an overvalued currency, weak manufacturing competitiveness, and inflation. Brazil's growth will be lower than potential say analysts, and it will be tough to get to even 3.5% growth in 2012-2013. A similiar process is seen in other emerging markets. China's premier Wen Biao announced lower growth targets of 7.5% and a shift in priorities recently. And India's growth rate for 4th quarter, 2011, was 6.1%.

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The baffling situation where no executive from Lehman faced charges for accounting manipulation after a long S.E.C. investigation under S.E.C. chief Schapiro. The report by Lehman bankruptcy account examiner Valukos cited accounting manipulation. This NYT report says Mr. Canellos, the co-head of the enforcement unit, was supported by Robert Khuzami in the decision not to move ahead with charges, and S.E.C. Schapiro continued the investigation but did not make the decision to support moving ahead.

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The Home Affordable Refinance Program's (HARP) gradual success in 2012-2013 in reducing foreclosures, after struggling in 2010-2011. From about cumulative 1 million who refinanced loans under HARP for relief in home payments the numbers went up to close to 3 million by the end of 2013, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Of this a major proportion were people who owed less than 105% of their home's value. The performance of the program improved with a revamp of HARP at the end of 2011.

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The new head of U.S. President Obama's Council of Economic Advisors, is Princeton economics professor, Alan Krueger. Kueger is known as the academic's academic, whose office is located with other labor scholars in the Princeton library. His work has focussed on what he calls "Rockenomics" (research about which bands do well and the reasons for this), on commuting, on studies such as the one with a suggestive title, "Sorting in the Labor Market: Do Gregarious Workers Flock to Interactive Jobs?" His appointment suggests the Obama administration is looking at no new policy initiatives, focussing on an incrementalist approach in policy actions, with the hope that he can get both political parties behind smaller changes. Putting a micro-specialist in charge at a time of huge volatility in financial markets shows an administration that is likely to continue the status quo with small changes till the presidential elections in 2012- the opposite of strong action because the Obama adminstration has no idea how to turn this economy around and only hopes things will change....

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Compared to the situation in 2008-2009 during the global financial crisis with the excess supply of labor, China in 2012 faces an excess in demand for labor. In 2009 about 20% of migrant workers were unemployed when the crisis hit, and wages dropped 10% for migrant workers, according to the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Stanford University. The situation three years later is one of tight labor markets and higer wages. A large stimulus in not only not needed today in the way it was in 2008-2009 as a way to maintain social stability, it would reduce the benefits of the anti-inflationary steps taken in 2011-2012, by putting more pressure on wages and prices. Manufacturing sector wages increased by 20.1% in 2011, according to China's statistics bureau. This may be why the Chinese government is taking measured steps to avoid creating more bad loans through indiscriminate lending, and being more selective in accelerating development projects in the pipeline. According to Hong Kong's new Chief Executive Officer China plans to have about 7% growth. This shift in approach would help China refocus on growth strategies recommended in the recent Development Reform Commission and World Bank Report on China....

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The U.S. Labor Department reported 120,000 jobs were added by private companies in March 2012. The U.S. government cut jobs by 1000. Manufacturing added 37,000 jobs, with a lot of these jobs in the auto industry. Health care, financial services and professional and business services added jobs. Retailers cut 34,000 jobs. Construction and transportation did not change. Average hourly earnings increased by 5 cents to $23.39, and wages increased by 2.1% over the prior year, still about the same as inflation; leaving workers with no real increase in incomes. The U.S. has to increase jobs by at least 100,000 jobs to keep up with population growth. March 2012 jobs numbers revealed what the U.S. Federal Reserve already knew when it pointed to weak growth in jobs ahead. It comes as the equity markets are sharply overextended after a couple of months of better job numbers. The unemployment rate declined from 8.3% to 8.2%, largely from fewer people looking for work.

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Edward DeMarco is head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), which is the independent regulatory agency overseeing U.S. housing lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The FHFA was formed in 2008 after merging two existing agencies. Later that year Fannie and Freddie were taken over by the government. FHFA head, DeMarco, is reluctant to help homeowners with underwater mortgages on their homes with reduced payments because this would mean losses to the taxpayer. He sees his mandate as protecting the taxpayer. Sheila Bair, former head of the FDIC, says she understands DeMarco's mandate is not to provide fiscal stimulus, and the Obama administration has been all over the place when it comes to providing homeowner assistance. The result is that there is little help by the U.S. government to homeowners with underwater mortgages since 2008, and this creates larger headwinds for the Federal Reserve Bank to provide momentum to the U.S. economy. Many experts see this as a serious problem and a well respected economist, Martin Feldstein, has made repeated proposals for structuring the help to homeowners since 2008. ...

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The failure of foreclosure programs under the Obama administration continues into 2012.

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In a Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted June 2-5, Republican presidential candidate Romney receives more support than President Obama. Among all Americans Romney and Obama receive 47% each, among registered voters Romney leads 49% to 46%. Independent voters gave Romney 50% to 43% for Obama. The poll shows Obama is being viewed with increasing skepticism because of the economy. By 2 to 1, Americans say the U.S. economy is on the wrong track, and 9 in 10 see the economy as doing poorly. The poll also show a significant shift to Republicans being seen favorably for running the economy, 45% now see Republicans as being better able to tackle the economy, a 11 point increase from a March poll.

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Strikers at a Honda transmission factory in Hoshan, 100 miles northwest of Hong Kong are asking for raises of $117 or 800 renminbi in cash above the $132 a month or 900 renminbi that they are now paid. About 950 of 1900 workers at the plant are trainees, young people from vocational schools or high schools earn $132 a month. Older employees earn upto 1500 renminbi or $220 a month. The significance of this strike is that the Chinese government is tacitly encouraging the strike as it begins making moves to increase domestic consumption and make the economy less dependent on exports. This requires consumer's having larger purchasing power and higher wages. It also means that China will not remain the low cost manufacturer for manufacture goods makers around the world for very long. Consider the size of the increase and the policy change of the government and this implies a significant shift by China.

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Spain's central bank was lauded for macroprudential supervision before the housing bubble burst. Will China's central bank and financial authorites which have managed the housing bubble upto this point face similiar problems? Can China be the sole exception even as housing bubbles burst with wide repercussions in the U.S., UK and Spain? Nicholas Lardy, of the Peterson Institute of international Economics, says urban housing stock makes up 41% of Chinese household wealth in 2011. The same figure for the U.S. is 26%. Chinese buyers invest in homes because low interest rates on savings accounts cannot keep up with inflation. Real estate investment was 13% of GDP in 2011. Home ownership is a recent development in China, only since 1990, Chinese have never experienced large price declines. Household debt as a percentage of disposable income has increased significantly in recent years, up to 53.6% in 2011 from 31.3% in 2008, according to Lardy.

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The U.S. government has spent $18 billion on training and job-search programs, with 47 programs offering training for the year ending Sept. 2009, according to the Government Accountability Office. President Obama proposed spending $8 billion more over 3 years to train 2 million people for new jobs. In addition there are state and local programs which get federal funding. Lawrence Katz, a Harvard labor professor says the money is given out on a haphazard basis and does not have a good track record of matching the training to the job openings. Part of the problem is that the government leaves it to state unemployment offices to evaluate labor markets and help trainees decide on professions to prepare for. A better approach is now being take by getting employers to offer on-the-job training. This approach is being adopted by community colleges and the Labor Department to improve matching of skills training to job openings.

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The serious problem of the large number of long term unemployed in the U.S. in 2012, strikingly different from any previous recession the U.S. has experienced. This means that if the problem is not addressed or solved these unemployed people will simply fall by the wayside, say experts. U.S. Federal chairman Bernanke, says this is a priority to be taken into account in setting interest rate policy. His fears are that this will be a permanent loss to the productive capacity of the U.S. Evidence of the extent of this problem is that the share of the population that is working has barely budged since late 2009 when the global financial crisis hit. It dropped from above 62% to about 58% in late 2009. It was 58.6% in ealry 2012, based on Labor Department data, even though the unemployment rate edged down to 8.3% by Feb. 2012.

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David Wessel says the U.S. is in a liquidity trap. He says the 500 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Averages was a less significant event than the decision by the Bank of New York Mellon to charge clients for keeping large amounts of cash. In a liquidity trap investors are indifferent between keeping their money in cash or in investments providing a return, because interest rates are so low. Today the S&P 500 have in total an estimated $963 billion in cash. The solutions for gettting out of a liquidity trap include government stimulus spending, devaluing the currrency, and generating inflation that could make it easier to reduce government debt. The stimulus approach was adopted in the first 2 years of the Obama administration and there are now increasing pressures to reduce the U.S. deficit. Because of the role of the U.S. dollar as an international currrency and large sovereign holdings of U.S. currency, an outright devaluation of the dollar has not been considered an option. At the same time the weakening of the U.S. currency has helped exports and is encouraged by the Fed and the U.S. government. In a sense all three options are being tried in different degrees and ways. The stimulus was the early response till the deficit concerns began to increase and require attention, the efforts to lower the value of the dollar to increase exports is underway, and the rounds of quantitative easing by the Fed were intended to produce inflation (and avert deflation). All with limited success....