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Kudos to Ellen Barry for hands on reporting right from Amethi, Uttar Pradesh state in India. For years UP (Uttar Pradesh) has been seen as one of India's most backward states, even though it is the largest state in India centering around the Ganges valley. Politicians were content to use backward parts of the state as mere vote banks at the time of elections. The elections in 2014 focussed on development are beginning to change this. The Gandhi family based in Allahbad, India, had Amethi in UP as the place where family members stood for parliamentary elections. In recent years as the Gandhi family's grip on UP loosened, the same vote bank policies were employed by caste group parties led first by Ms. Mayawati and then Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav. The elections of 2014 were about making the shift and sea change in Indian politics in the heart of the country- the north central Ganges valley region- away from vote bank politics and caste groups. The BJP under Gujarat's Modi focussed the election on development and delivery on infrastructure and jobs. For too long reporting on an important part of Asia has been laid back from metropolian centres without the hard work needed to grasp the situation in the countryside and on site. Kudos also to NYT's Bearak's report from Ladakh on the enormous logistics required for an election of this magnitude with about half a billion voters. ...

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Population experts including Liang Zhongtang a demographer at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, are not convinced the change in the one-child policy in 2013 will have come in time to reverse the trend in increase of elderly population relative to the younger population. Zhongtang says the whole policy should have been removed. According to UN projections China's labor force will lose 67 million workers from 2010 to 2030. During this period the elderly population is expected to increase from 110 million in 2010 to 210 million in 2030. Wang Feng, a demographer at Fudan University in Shanghai, is skeptical about how much difference the new policy will make. He says the figures by population experts showing a maximum of 2 million additional childbirths over the next 3 years, starting about 10 months from now won't make much difference, and these additions will not enter the labor force for another 20 years.

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The 50th anniversary of the Elysee Treay between Germany and France. Konrad Adenauer and Charles de Gaulle signed the treaty in 1963.

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The Fed over the past year has assumed, backstopped, or committed to take on about $2 trillion in assets from shaky financial institutions including Bear Stearns, AIG, Citigroup and Bank of America. In some cases the banks will assume some of the losses, or Treasury will accept some of the losses before the Fed comes into the picture. Another $1 trillion in lending could occur in 2009 as liquidity programs are tapped further by borrowers and the Fed purchases more bonds such as the ones sold by Fannie and Freddie, and securites backed by student loans, auto loans, credit card receivables and small business loans. This would result in a balance sheet for the Fed over 3 times what it was 18 months ago in mid 2007.

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The gradual fading of China's demographic dividend. This is the reason some analysts believe India's growth rate will surpass China's by 2013 to 2015. The World Bank reflects this in its growth rate estimates for China, which slow from 8.7% in 2009 to 7.7% in 2015, and 6.7% in 2020. One reason for this is that India's age dependency ratio, which reflects how many wage earners support older people, is rising, and China's is declining- with experts expecting that trend to continue till 2040.

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This NYT editorial on Jeb Bush economic advisor Ben Hubbard of Columbia University, says his response that "compensation didn't stagnate" about the wages and benefits of working class Americans and the middle class does not reflect the way these groups are falling behind. It says that the public cannot expect a new perspective from advisors who were in top positions in previous administrations when the middle class incomes and living standards began to face stagnation.

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The Human Needs Index pioneered by 2015 Nobel Prize Winner Angus Deaton looks at consumption of services such as healthcare, housing and of food, to determine how people in each region are doing and poverty levels. Using this index Minnesota and North Carolina at about 1.15 are doing much better than Nevada and Michigan.

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Baucus is a six term senator from Montana. He won easy re-election in the fall. Question are being raised about the extent of fundraising Baucus is doing even as he is conducting the negotiations for writing up the health care reform bill. He continues to accept donations from health care executives and health care companies. Public Citizen advocacy group says that Baucus's fundraising in the middle of the health care debate is very troubling. As chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, Baucus is a key person in the health care legislation development.The Washington Post says health care companies gave Baucus $1.5 million in 2007 and 2008 as he began to hold hearings for the health care reform debate. The health care industry gave $170 million to federal lawmakers in 2007 and 2008, with 54% going to Democrats, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Senator Grassley of Iowa, the ranking Republican in Baucus's committee received more than $2 million from the health care industry since 2003. House Ways and Means Committee chairman Rangel took in $1.6 million, and ranking Republican Dave Camp $1 million. Clearly any new health care legislation will fall short on achieving the critical reduction in health care costs that is needed to help the U.S. economy as long as lawmakers are beholden to lobbyists and donations....

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Former U.S. Treasury secretary Robert Rubin talks to Charlie Rose about the August 2 Debt Ceiling and Deficit legislation. He says there are two constructive things about the legislation. There are no serious cuts in 2011 and 2012, so there will be almost no loss in demand as spending cuts do not affect the immediate 18 month period. Former Treasury Secretary Summers also makes this point. And that the cuts include defense and non-defense. He favors the approach of the Bowles-Simpson Commission. On the overall situation Rubin points out the importance of getting a real public discussion going about what this means, what the consequences of decisions made now. Especially important for Rubin is public understanding of the importance of setting up a serious deficit reduction program that sets the date of implementation a couple of years into the future to give time to get back on track, and the need for increased revenues. A useful point Rubin makes is that the question of jobs and the question of getting into a sound position fiscally are really the same question. He cites his experience in 1993 when he helped President Clinton setup and implement a deficit reduction program- which had half spending cuts and half revenue increases. Bowles-Simpson Commission recommendations for closing loopholes for tax expenditures and Martin Feldstein's similiar proposal for limiting the deductions and exclusions to 2% of Adjusted Gross Income offer an option that creates revenues without any tax increases....

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Feeding America, a national network of food banks, finds that 37 million, or 1 in 8 Americans, needed emergency food assistance in 2009. Even in affluent suburbs like Long Island it found 280,000 sought assistance for food in 2009. And 39% of these were children under 18. Only 30% of those seeking help received food stamps suggesting that even that program is not reaching everyone that needs help.

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Kessler says the assumption that pension systems such as Calpers (California Public Employees Retirement System), can make returns of 7.5% is fantasy considering that U.S. Treasury bonds are yielding 1.74%. Calpers reduced its expected rate of return on its portfolio to 7.5% fom 7.75% in June 2012. Public pension funds in Illinois use 8.18% for expected returns. U.S. public companies with defined benefit pension plan assets of $1.3 trillion use an expected rate of return of 7.5%, even though these assets have return of 5.6% since 2000. Kessler's estimate for expected rate of return is about 3%- fixed income yielding negative real rates of return and pulling returns down. For equities he estimates return at the total of inflation component at +2%, productivity component at +2%, and multiple expansion at -1% because interest rates are at zero.

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The Senate FInance Committee's $829 billion bill, would cut by $113 billion money for America's Health Insurance Plans over ten years, specifically Medicare Advantage, reducing insurer profits. The AHIP is responding with aad campaign to seniors to fight this setting up aconfrontation with the Obama adminsitration.

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This editorial in the WSJ tells readers not to confuse the spirit of a pro-growth initiative in the CEO statement of Oct. 2012 with a simple tax increase. The CEO's are doing this as a part of a larger effort for a strong recovery in the U.S. economy and not simply to increase taxes. For the first time CEO's are backing tax increases to break the influence of what the Journal calls Republican deadenders who flatly oppose any tax increases period leading to unacceptable deadlock and uncertainty that prevents business from investing and hiring. This is part of a broader set of tax reforms to lower rates overall, reduce tax expenditures and support the Simpson-Bowles commission recommendations framework to reduce the deficit.