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Congressional Budget Office projections show the difficult choices facing the U.S. - tackling the deficit by letting the Bush tax cuts and the payroll tax cuts expire will lead to low growth. The alternative is growth with much higher deficits. GDP growth would be at about 2.3% in this fiscal year if the payroll tax cut is kept till December 2012. In fiscal 2013 if a number of tax cuts are permitted to expire and across the board spending cuts take effect as scheduled GDP growth would decline to 1.1%. Taxes would increase by $465 billion in 2013 over 2012 if tax cuts expire - individuals and companies would pay $2.99 trillion in taxes in fiscal year 2013 in that scenario. Spending cuts would take effect in Jan 2013 for $1.2 trillion over 10 years. The result- " a sharp fiscal contraction" in the words of CBO director Elmendorf. Unemployment would go up to 8.9% in 2012 year end and 9.2% in 2013 yearend from 8.5% today, if no agreement is made to extend tax cuts and block spending cuts. The risk of not taking the debt reduction actions is to let the debt grow to $11 trillion over 10 years, an unsustainable path, compared to about $3.1 trillion over 10 years if tax cuts are permitted to expire and spending cuts take place. This is the tough choice facing America in 2012, and comes when Europe is facing similar tough choices....

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Portugal's foreign minister, Paulo Portas, resigns in protest against continuity of austerity measures signalled by the selection of Ms. Albuquerque as the new finance minister. Portas's party is part of the coalition of centre right parties in the administration of prime minister, Pedro Passos Coelho. Cuts in public employee pay and spending on health and education, income and sales tax increases, have cut the deficit to 6.4% of GDP by 2013 from about 10% in 2010. The cost of this is an economy that is shrinking more than expected- by 4.8% in 2011 and 2012, and an additional 2.3% in 2013. Unemployment exceeds 17% in 2013. The loan terms negotiated for the 78 billion euro bailout with the IMF and E.U. in 2010, were renegotiated so that the 3% of GDP target for the deficit for 2013 was relaxed to 5.5%. Portas's party and other leaders are calling for a further renegotiation to take into account the economic conditions in Portugal and boost growth. Portas's party opposed the effort to cut labor costs of companies with a large increase in worker social security contributions, a measure seen as counterproductive even by business leaders that was later dropped. In financial markets the 10 year Portugal bond yield increased 0.22% to 6.615%....

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About 14 million people are in poverty or slipping below the poverty line according to Paritatische Wohlfahrtsverband, umbrella organization for welfare organizations. German per capita wealth is about 52,000 euros but there is growing inequality in wealth and incomes.  A household with 2 parents and 2 children is at the poverty line at 2410 euros a month or about 29000 euros a year. Social safety net under Hartz IV does little to help because it is set at 449 euros a month with 285 to 376 euros for each child. This is expected to go up to 503 euros a month per person in 2023. Even though experts say at least 650 euros are needed per month to live  with dignity. Under this system only 5 euros per day is set by Hartz IV for food, says DW.com, which is shocking. It means food of lesser quality or less food goes to the less well off. About 2 million people use food banks. Prices are up 12% in 2022 for basics such as bread, vegetables, milk and cheese. One study shows old age poverty is likely to affect 20% of Germans by 2036. The situation is bad for elderly, students and women. Women have worked part time reducing their income.  A student with federal funding gets 934 euros a month which is well below the poverty line. A new program for 200 billion euros is planned by German government to protect against inflation for households. Minimum wage is 12 euros per hour so that someone who works 40 hours a week makes 1480 per month in net income. After inflation this is close to the poverty line. Such is the situation for Germans today even after decades of growth and being seen as an export powerhouse. Compare this to the situation in India where the food program of the Modi administration continues to support food supplies that are adequate for feeding a family right through the pandemic for 800 million people and one sees that the idea of what is a rich or poor country is turned on its head. It is simply the will of the culture of a people and a country and its leadership that makes its limited or larger national wealth available to all its citizens, for the basics to fulfill the idea that "all men are created equal and they are endowed by their Creator with some inalienable rights to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness," enshrined in the minds of Asia borrowed from America. ...

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Maine is the only state in the US where the median age declined in 2021. More people from other northeastern states migrated to Maine during this pandemic leading to population growth as younger people move in. This puts Maine in the ranks of sunbelt states such as Florida and South Carolina. This has one drawback- the increase in home prices that requires the state to pitch in to make housing more affordable for locals. During the pandemic three years Massachusetts lost 100,000, New York 600,000 to out migration. Maine has some of the most spectacular scenery in the northeast with Acadia National Park near Bar Harbor on the long coastline.

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The question whether the source of the coronavirus that led to deaths of more than 1 million Americans is a lab leak at a Wuhan lab in China is still being checked. The Energy Department says that with  "low confidence" it emerged from a lab leak at Wuhan, China. Earlier in 2021 the FBI stated that it was the result of a lab leak not a natural transmission. The Energy Department runs many labs doing research in the field. Petroleum exports supported the allied war effort in two world wars says this report in the WSJ. Europe is shunning Russian oil after its invasion of Ukraine.

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The $42 billion withdrawal on Thursday March 9 from SVB bank is the largest one day withdrawal in US banking history, over twice that of Washington Mutual when it collapsed in 2008, says this report in the WSJ. By concentrating on Silicon Valley, SVB bank went on a growth spree, but its concentration in the Valley proved to be its undoing. The optimism turned awry in 2021 with the decline in NASDAQ of 33%, and tech companies facing layoffs with more scrutiny from the government and the US Congress, efforts to breakup monopolies, the Fed chairman Powell's and president Biden's efforts to focus on the cost of living crisis.

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The failure of the SEC under Gary Gensler to protect ordinary Americans who are mistakenly trusting their savings to cryptocurrency firms is seen as a major flaw in his running of the agency by former SEC officials and other SEC experts. The gaps in SEC enforcement and this weakness is the subject of this report in the WSJ. The cryptocurrency firms are not registered with the SEC and do not follow SEC rules hurting ordinary Americans putting money there. Mr. Gensler was made head of the SEC in 2021, and the SEC has been looking at crypto firms since 2017 but failed to come up with a regulatory model in 5 years.

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The NYT's Motoko Rich and Hikari Hida look at the relationship between Shinjo Abe and Fumio Kishida of Japan. Both entered parliament at the same time in 1993, and both are sons and grandsons of members of parliament. Mr. Abe took the lead and when it resigned in 2021 Kishida was not his first choice to succeed him in the Liberal Democratic Party, Kishida sees increasing defense spending as on of the realities of the changing situation in Asia and the Japanese public now supports this. Kishida is pursuing a different economic policy with an effort to reduce economic inequality which he sees as a problem similar to the US and Europe.

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Was Russia better off in 2021 than after the invasion of Ukraine. Was it better for upward mobility, health, openness of the economy and growth, and standards of living. Was the US perceived as a hegemon when it also lacked control of its own companies that preferred to invest elsewhere and ignored US workers for a long time. This report in the WSJ asks whether it is not true that not just Russia, but the US, the EU, China, India, other large nations faced a world order that was in many ways difficult, not to their liking, and in some ways posed risks for their countries. 

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Major changes have happened in CEO's in 2019-2021 for major American companies in aerospace, automobiles and information technology hardware. Patrick Gelsinger is new CEO of Intel Corp. With Gelsinger come $95 billion in new investments in the US manufacturing of chips. Dave Calhoun is new CEO of Boeing as it increases investments in US manufacturing capabilities. Jim Farley is new CEO of Ford Motor Company. With Farley come billions of dollars in new investments and a shift to electric cars and electric car technologies. All three companies had new Chief Financial Officers within months of new CEO';s assuming their new roles.

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Kate Bingham, head of the Vaccine Task Force in Britain is commended for her intelligent approach in placing bets on vaccines in different technologies, "four buckets" as she calls them. This includes the Moderna and Pfizer in the mRNA technology and the viral vector Astra Zeneca, J&J vaccines. This approach made the British vaccination drive effective by being supported by a resilient supply system.

The Indian government has supported the effort to get several companies to make the Sputnik Russian vaccine in India in an effort to diversify supplies. Reddy Labs is one of the major manufacturers working on the Sputnik vaccine in 2021.

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Everyone over 50 years is to be given the vaccine in just a few months of 2021 by the NHS. A massive logistics and training effort is underway. The government changed the law to let student doctors, physiotherapists, and dental workers to give the vaccine. Retired doctors and nurses are called in. Britain has a war effort to counter antivaccine propaganda unlike other countries such as France and Germany. Compare that 79% of Britons are seeking the vaccine, 54% in France and 64% in the U.S. showing that the UK is doing a much better job. Vaccination starts next week for over 80 year old people. The world is watching.

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The US Supreme Court unanimously agrees that letting a state decide who is on the ballot and who is not based on an insurrectionist interpretation of the US Constitution would lead to chaos. The SC was considering a lawsuit filed by the state of Colorado asking that Trump be disqualified for insurrectionist behaviour related to events at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. Other states had filed similar lawsuits. With 51 states any state could do this leading to chaotic and unanticipated situations. Any such disqualification would have to first come from the US Congress says the SC. It will also hear other cases related to the other lawsuits going through the courts involving Trump.

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It is a major step to cut carbon missions in half by 2030. The Biden plan is to have majority of cars to be electric by 2032. It does not require a certain number of cars to be electric only requires carmakers to meet certain emission requirements overall and the carmakers then choose what the mix of gas, electric, hybrid would be. It also has concessions to workers unions and carmakers, and an understanding that there is resistance to buying electric when charging stations don't exist in adequate numbers and costs are high for electric. It does this by allowing accelerated development in 2030, 2031 2032 to do the job, as by 2030 enough capital investment and research will have happened to make this possible. This also seeks to not politicize climate change in the way the former president seeks to do as a realistic plan is needed and simply having no plan and eliminating the political opponent's plan and denying climate change is not possible in 2024 as in 2016, there is just too much happening in terms of floods and fires for people to not believe. Automakers and workers themselves believe that a plan is needed to fight climate change in 2024 even though these same automakers such as VW and large automakers in the US had a wait and see attitude in 2016. For the Biden administration listening to carbuyers, carmakers, auto workers and the general public to make the plan workable and meet real concerns is the best way forward in 2024. ...

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Neelakurinji deep blue flowers on India's western ghats mountains in western India, this time of the year, as shown in The Hindu. A UNESCO Heritage site since 2012. 

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Ukraine leader Zelensky is expected to be in Washington to meet president Biden and to address the US Congress on December 21, 2022. A bill in Congress includes $44 billion for aid to Ukraine.

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Coronavirus cases reach a daily high of 53,000 in the UK, December 28, 2020. London has twice the rate as England. There are calls for a nationwide lockdown as the NHS faces a crisis.

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The new Indian parliament building in New Delhi where the flag is hoisted in 2023 marks a remarkable journey since the first parliament met Aug. 15, 1947- a 75 year journey for India.

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The world is truly changing again. Japan which suffered from deflation after it went through decades of rapid growth is once more reviving and has its first experience with inflation in decades in 2023.

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JN.1 is the latest mutation of the Omicron virus. it is spreading in France and other countries. The NYT looks at this new variant and the threat it poses in November 2023.

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Starting in 2023 the penalty on missed RMD drops to 25% from 50%, and down to 10% if corrected in 2 years. The statute of limitations for missed RMD's is three years.

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About 21% of Independent voters are less likely to vote for the former president Trump after the conviction of the former president in New York trial in a Ipsos survey in June 2024.

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Growing number of parttime workers and poverty levels in Japan. About 16% of the population in Japan lives on an income that is half the national median income, which is the way the government defines poverty. OECD studies in 2011 show Japan as sixth from the bottom of 34 members of the OECD. The poor quality of jobs is worsening the problem of the working poor, just as it is in the U.S. with lower wage manufacturing jobs and very low wage jobs in retail/ restaurant industries. Experts say the problem has worsened since 2012 when prime minister Abe was elected. Since 2012 the number of part time or irregular workers without permanent contracts has increased by 1.5 million, with parttime workers at 20 million, or 40% of the Japanese workforce. They point to the parental support with many young workers living at home, as is true also of Spain and Italy, that has mitigated their difficult situation. This piece in the Economist provides insights into the condition of parttime lower wage workers in Japan, a large number of whom are young people, a situation similiar to that in some European countries such as Spain and Italy. At the very low end as Japanese local and national governments- under pressure to cut spending with its high debt- reduce benefits, more people have been added to the welfare rolls with 2 million people now on welfare....

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Portugal in 2012-2013 stands as a good case study of what is good and what is bad about austerity measures, about what makes sense and is needed and what does not make sense and is bad both in a fiscal sense and for growth. Patricia Knowsmann does a good job of bringing this out, from the hundreds of stories written about austerity vs growth in the media. During 2011-2012, the elected government of Passos Coelho has supported an EU-IMF-ECB program that reduced wages, raised taxes, privatized state owned companies and changed labor laws that reduced hiring by businesses. During this time the Portuguese have patiently accepted the program compared to other countries and the budget deficit is shrinking from 9.8% in 2010 to an expected 5% in 2012. The unemployment rate has gone up to 15%. Now a new plan by prime minister Coelho in September has created an uproar and sparked popular opposition to the austerity measures threatening what has been achieved in deficit reduction, including the credibility of the austerity program. The plan is to reduce the portion of salaries that employers contribute to the social security system from 23.5% to 18%, in the hope that employers would increase hiring. At the same time it increases the portion of salaries employees pay from 11% to 18%. Coelho was looking at Germany and Slovenia where employees pay more than 20% of salaries to Social Security. What he failed to look at was the situation in Portugal where workers and pensioners have lost about 24% of their income through wage cuts and tax increases. The new plan would reduce incomes even further. Portugal's small business owners expressed strong disapproval for the plan because it would mean a drastic drop in consumer spending. The president of a Portuguese shoe maker, Kyaia, with 600 employees, says it makes no sense to reduce companies contribution if the company can't sell enough shoes to keep its workers. Kyaia has already experienced a 25% decline in demand and its CEO Fortunato Frederico, says he cannot understand how a company can hire workers if demand declines. This impact on consumer demand and sentiment is a fact that policymakers cannot ignore throughout the eurozone as austerity measures are implemented, especially when demand has already declined to an unacceptable point. The move by Coelho ignored a study by Portugal's finance ministry and central bank that showed export businesses may be induced to hire from the savings in contributions, but the businesses serving the domestic market would simply take in the savings. The EU-IMF-ECB recognized this and suggested increasing taxes to pay for the reduction in employer contributions, which would also depress demand by reducing incomes further. Portugal's economy and business is not focussed on exports, small business makes up 97% of Portugal's companies and most of them do not export. The introduction of such a plan gives credibility to the idea that there is a transfer of wealth from workers to business under the austerity programs, which affects the credibility of the entire deficit reduction and competitiveness improvement programs. For Coelho it also means the strong opposition of a minority party in his coalition government and from members of his Social Democratic Party. Large demonstrations were held on Sept 15 in 40 cities in Portugal in the first large scale opposition to further austerity measures and the Coelho social security contribution plan. Capital markets in Europe also see a problem with such plans because it removes the essential element of popular acceptance of deficit reduction plans jeopardizing the entire program. After the failure to win popular acceptance in Greece capital markets see additional risks and failures as one too many for the eurozone. ...

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Efforts to end the use of single use plastics that are a threat to health and the environment, land, rivers and oceans.  The use of plastic water bottles has worsened the crisis. Supermarkets are slow in the US to ban plastic bags showing need for prudent regulation. Talks in Busan, South Korea, in Nov 2024 to find a solution to the plastics proliferation crisis. The plastics industry including plastics makers and recycling companies say things are under control with recycling goals, yet reports show only 30% of plastics is being recycled each year in 2024, and going back to the beginning of plastics 2 decades back only about 10% has been recycled. All the rest ends up on landfills, gets incinerated causing more pollution, or ends up on our coastlines and in the land contaminating it.