LyrArc Article Gist
A crisis situation exists in state revenue and spending needs. According to a Census Bureau report overall state revenue in the US dropped 30.8%, to $1.1 trillion, between fiscal 2008 and 2009. The gap between the spending needed to provide services in the recession and revenues is very large. States fiscal problems along with housing losses, will be the two forces acting as a drag to the US recovery in 2011-2012. State payrolls will be cut back and contracts to private companies reduced to cut spending. Declining federal help in 2011-2012, with the new focus on reducing the federal deficit, will worsen the situation. According to the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, even with large federal help 46 states had to raise taxes and make cuts to close a combined gap of $130 billion in their current budgets. And next year 40 states already have projected gaps totaling $113 billion. Even as revenues drop, the Census Bureau report says the state government expenditures went up by 3% to provide essential services, safety net programs and education. Illinois has a budget deficit of 45 percent of its overall budget, according to the Pew Center on the States. In California it is equal to 13% of te state's total budget, and in Arizona it is 15%. For 2009 tax collections fell by 8.5%, and were partially offset by a 12.9% increase in federal help, which was a total of $477.7 billion, according to te Census Bureau report....

LyrArc Article Gist
This Economist magazine editorial says the Republican plan for health care with its roll back of Medicaid expansion by limiting funding to states after 2020, and by scaling back subsidies especially for older Americans and not basing them on income levels, is likely to have its own problems just as the Affordable Care Act. One concern is that keeping healthy people in the market with a mandate that everyone have insurance is present but in a milder form with premiums going up by 30% in one year if they change their mind. There is concern that this may not work among insurers leading to an increase in premiums, pricing people out of the market in "a death spiral." This could lead to more people being priced out of the market as premiums rise. About 12 million people were added to Medicaid by increasing eligibility level to $16400, or 138% of poverty line- this reduced the uninsured from 16% in 2010 to 8.8% today. The Economist concludes that the Republican health care bill has its own problems, and that this bill does not clear up the problems in Obamacare by substituting Ryancare as the Republican bill is called. Peggy Noonan writing in the WSJ says this may have negative consequences for the new Republican base shift to populist support. Critics on the right like Rand Paul see even the reduced subsidies as an entitlement program, yet the Republicans can only change parts of the Affordable Care Act as they need 60 votes in the Senate where they only have a small majority.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This editorial in the New York Times points out that the new president of the ANC party -that runs South Africa and has a monopoly of power in the post Apartheid years, under Mandela, Mbeki and Zuma- faces a uphill task as the ANC remains deeply divided after supporting Mr. Zuma in office till the very end. Apart from the stagnant economy, there are challenges the ANC faces in the lethargy of the post Apartheid years, and the culture of corruption, and patronage management that led to mismanagement of state enterprises.

LyrArc Article Gist
What is happening here appears to be that the whole American system of government as it operates today has some serious weaknesses, which if exposed in a critical situation- and with some life threatening situation for an industry group- can subvert the whole system and the economic life of the country. The serious weaknesses are the lobbying of Congress that is legal, and the financing of Congressmen and Senators election campaigns by industry groups which is legal. The life threatening situation for an industry group are the accounting rules and nuances that require that the banking and financial industry that holds these mortgage home loans, if they change one loan to lower payments in one geographic area, have to then show the lowered value of that loan in their books on all other loans of that type in that geographic area. Without this the banks and financial institutions were already or close to insolvent with losses of over $1 trillion. With that accounting change the industry losses would make large parts of the industry insolvent. This becomes incentive enough to fight loan modifications at all costs for the industry, and explains why Hope for Homeowners has generated only 25 loan modifications when it was advertised to generate 400,000. This creates a once in a lifetime or once in a hundred year chance of the whole system of democratic government working to destroy the economic life of the country. How? By providing a big enough reason for the banking and financial industry to fight loan modifications almost to the death, against even their better judgement when in late 2008 and January 2009 this would mean suicide for the economic life of the country, and the chance that they would both go down into the depths, the industry and the boat that is the American economy. This is what this story tells us, all key Congressmen and Senators were taken into their fold by the lobbying groups with large donations to their election funds, both Republican and Democrat, Shelby, Frank, Dodd, Durbin, and their aides. After Hope for Homeowners program failed, the new Hope Now program was again designed with the connivance of lawmakers in both parties by the banking industry representatives. It was designed so it would largely fail by not doing enough to keep homeowners in their homes. The industry faced with a life threatening situation did the wrong thing. Instead of saying lets get the government to help to change the accounting rule, and advocating that the government join the industry to share the losses and go out aggressively to restructure the loans in a three way loss sharing arrangement with homeowners, government and the industry, the industry instead decided to stick its head in the sand and let nobody do anything period. To do this it had to create the illusion that somehow the problem would fix itself with housing recovering on its own. In addition to the donations many Republicans like Preston, Secretary of HUD with oversight of FHA, and others in the Bush administration, may have had the mistaken notion that somehow the housing industry would recover without much help, that the economy was basically still healthy, that the crisis was not as bad as it appeared, that freemarket principles were still the best guide, and that toxic assets of banks and foreclosures were two entirely different things, with foreclosures for those who had borrowed recklessly not a bad thing....

LyrArc Article Gist
Nancy Koehn calls this a brave and insightful book, with relevance for readers watching the debt ceiling negotiations unfold in the U.S. in July 2011. The question he asks about how the elites could have got so many things wrong relate to Greece as well as the bubbles and ensuing crises in the U.S. in the last decade. Manolopoulos points to the problems of using GDP indicators if the economic activity it measures is not reflecting an increase in the productive capabilities and competitiveness of the country. He also cautions about the negative impact of liberalization of capital flows if this results in a large pool of global credit that short termist governments can access without regard to the longer term consequences of repayment. The creation of bubbles is one danger of access to large pools of capital. another danger is that this capital leads to governments relaxing all conservative practices of budgeting in managing a nation's finances.

LyrArc Article Gist
The amazing story of Vivat publishing house that continued to publish books and even opened a new bookstore with bombing all around the city of Kharkiv. Many continued to work even from bomb shelters. The warehouse was moved to near Lviv. Since the war began Vivat has produced 60 books. The year before the war Vivat produced 2 million books. Today there is growing demand for books, for childrens books and books for younger people. People want to feel life is as close to normal and books are part of this.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Labor Department reports U.S. unemployment rate at 4.4% in April 2017, dropping slightly from 4.5% in March. Average hourly wage year over year growth is 2.5%. Including people working part time or those who dropped out of the labor market the unemployment rate was down from 8.9% to 8.6%. 211,000 jobs were added in April 2017- this makes the average for three months 174,000. But the picture for marginalized workers because of skills erosion, location, and other factors is still an issue- the labor participation rate fell from 63% to 62.9%.

LyrArc Article Gist
David Brooks says the Paul Ryan Budget proposal is a bold step forward that is badly needed in this debate on health care, even though it has some grave weaknesses which need to be corrected. It is a bold step forward because he says Democrats say they want no middle class tax increases, or are not willing to say what kinds of tax increases they support, and yet they believe the Medicare and Medicaid and Social Security programs are worth preserving. This is'nt based on reality. He cites the weaknesses, beginning with the one discussed in David Leonhardt's column in the New York Times on April 7, 2011. Too many Americans pay too little into Medicare taxes and expect to collect several hundred thousand dollars more in Medicare benefits. The example given in Leonhardt's column is from a study that shows 56 year olds with average earnings pay about $140,000 in dedicated Medicare taxes over a lifetime, and then go on to collect $430,000 in benefits. Middle class and affluent boomers can't get off paying their share like everybody else. Its just the right way for their children and the nation's children. Ryan's plan excludes older people reaching retirement in ten years. The other major weakness is that the cuts are too deep. Things like the Pell grants which Ryan proposes to cut back to 2008 levels need to be preserved, and more money has to go into science, education and research and early childhood education for the U.S. to be competitive with China and India. The Ryan proposal places cuts that would be required so that tax revenues need to be at 18% of GDP. The number where a larger consensus exists is for tax revenues at 20% of GDP (also supported by business and the Wall Street Journal's editorial columns). This would preserve programs that are most productive for the economic future of the U.S. Ryan's proposal lets the hope for reducing costs of medical care rest entirely on future retirees deciding how much medical care (tests, procedures etc) they consume through larger cost sharing. Yet a structure and framework is needed to manage these costs effectively, and some combination of incentives to retirees to control costs and an effective structural framework is needed. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
P&G 's focus on premium priced brands is questioned as being the right strategy at a time when private label brands are putting pressure on suppliers for lower prices.

LyrArc Article Gist
Here is the answer to how retailing is doing in February 2009. See the graph. By type of store, Discount stores have held up with 2.9% increase, drug 1.6% decrease, Apparel 5.5% decrease, Department stroes 9% decrease. Of the discounters Walmart is up 5.1%, Target is down 4.1%; of Department stores Macy's down 8.5%, Penneys 8.8%, Saks and Neiman Marcus down 26 and 21%; and in Apparel stores Gap is down 12%, Abercrombie and Fitch down 30%, and Aerospatiale up 11%.

LyrArc Article Gist
Luis Gutierrez, Charirman of the subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Consumer Credit, has a bill in Congress that is presented as a reform effort by the lending industry, many Republicans and some consumers. It would allow payday operators in the $50 billion payday lending industry, to charge what amounts to an annual percentage rate of 391%. Rep. Maxine Walters described the bill this way, "we've got to resist any attempt to make it look as if we are cracking down, when in fact we are opening the door to more abuse." This is what Countrywide's Mozilo does in a interview with BW, that he gave at the time the housing and mortgage crisis was breaking open in 2008. And this is the way those in both political parties in Congress, lobbyists, and businessmen who profited from all the unethical things that went on in the housing lending industry, all worked together to undermine the foundations of the country's economy by putting toxic assets at the centre of the credit and banking system of the US. They did this by saying that they were helping the poorer classes get access to housing, and used the term "a piece of the American dream," which seems to be the phrase that opens all sorts of caves in the American imagination, like Ali Baba and his magic lamp and his magic phrase did in Arabian times. And so the NYT editorial writer, facing the greater evil suggests that a smaller evil, an usurious rate of 36% that is an option afforded to military families is a desirable option, when at that rate the loan numbers would double in less than 3 years. All this when the government at federal state and local levels could assume this among the many activities it already undertakes, because it does best those activities, such as some of the public transportation and other services. The government bank could require proof of desperate need, and provide loans for purposes of medical care, care of elderly, care of children, educational needs, food and shelter needs, at rates of 10-15% to make up for losses in loans not repaid, and run it as a nonprofit. Capitalism is also of the good kind and the bad kind, the 391% payday loan capitalism or the loans at pricing that made them unaffordable to low income people, or loans to low income people who did not have incomes to afford housing (where the risk was then passed on to the owners of the securities after a false sertification of A rating had been obtained by undermining the rating process) is a bad kind of capitalism, and the 36% usurious rate for military families is of the tolerably bad kind of capitalism, and the 10-15% kind of payday government sponsored loan is of the good kind of capitalism. And critical to its understanding is what experience has taught us in the last 100 years- that for this good kind of capitalism, there is a critical social role for the government to play. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
President Biden's cyber security strategy recognizes that "too much of the responsibility for cybersecurity has fallen on individual users and small organizations." The strategy signed by president Biden took months to develop with involvement of 20 government agencies. The cyber security strategy says that free markets and a reliance on voluntary security frameworks have imposed "inadequate costs" on companies that offer insecure products and services. The 35 page strategy report says that "we must shift the liability to those entities that do not take reasonable precautions." Kemba Walden, acting cybersecurity strategy director, says that "software companies can and should shoulder a bigger share of the cyber risk." President Biden sees this as an effort that will draw support from Republicans in Congress.  Modernizing federal government technology, forging international partnerships for cyber norms, more collaboration with the private sector, and international collaboration are other priorities listed in the strategy report. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Friedman points to another reason for conservation- $60 barrel of oil supports Iran's nuclear ambitions. He points to the lack of U.S. leverage on this issue and the need for India, China and Russia to moderate Iran's position. He also points out that Bush's efforts to promote democracy and peaceful governments in the Middle East and Asia that are not anti-western will be undermined by $60 barrel oil. See the link to other articles that point to the need for a gasoline tax (Leonhardt, NY Times, Feb 8, 2006 on being fooled by Hybrids) or in the absence of a gasoline tax to new CAFE standards. See also a link to shift in influence on foreign policy from Cheney to Rice, to more moderate positions that accomodate Europe and Asia.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Russian economy has proved stronger than other emerging markets in a similar situation. The ruble has declined from 35 to the dollar before the Ukraine crisis and sanctions in 2014 to 86 to the dollar in Jan. 2016. Foreign currency reserves dropped from $600 billion to $385 billion in 2009, when Russia with memories of 1997 when the ruble collapsed, decided to prop up the ruble. In Nov. 2014 Russia's central bank let the ruble float, this time responding in a different way following western sanctions over Ukraine and a emerging markets crisis. Interest rates were increased to tackle inflation.A key rate was raised to 17% in Dec. 2014, dropping by Jan 2016 to 11%. Inflation was 12.9% in Dec. 2015, the target for 2017 is 4%. The economy has contracted by 3.7% in 2015, and expected to contract by 1% in 2016, according to the IMF. Alexsei Kudrin, former finance minister, expects modest growth in 2017.

LyrArc Article Gist
German leadership in the eurozone and the EU- with the strong stand for eurozone countries to do their economic homework and restore fiscal balance, and the action taken to bring the EU countries together on Russian intervention in Ukraine- is leading to questions about the dominant role played by Germany. Chancellor Merkel has played a leadership role partly because of the absence of other leaders with strong support in their home base who could provide such leadership. Merkel's poll rating in Germany actually shot up during the eurozone crisis from 40% in 2010 to 70% in 2013, and steady at 67% in June 2015, as German taxpayers and voters see Merkel as preventing debt ridden countries in the eurozone passing on higher costs in the debt crisis to Germany. With German wages kept low for the last decade to ensure a economic recovery and lower unemployment, Germans see no reason to support other eurozone countries when a low wage sector exists inside Germany, except under conditions that ensure fiscal balance. In a Harris poll taken in France June 30-July 1, 2015, Chancellor Merkel is rated higher at 43% expressing approval compared to 36% saying they approve of French premier Hollande's handling of the Greece and eurozone crisis. Over 50% of people in Spain and in France disapprove of Merkel's handling of the eurozone crisis, yet two thirds of France's main centre right party support Merkel's handling of the eurozone crisis. In the Harris poll when asked how Merkel, IMF, Hollande and Tsipras handled the Greece crisis people polled in France gave 43% approval to the IMF and Merkel compared to 36% for Hollande and Tsipras of Greece, and 60% disapprove of Hollande and Tsipras handling of the crisis compared to 53% disapproval for the IMF and Merkel. The Christian Democrats party in Germany has dominant leaders in its tradition starting with Konrad Adenauer in the early postwar years, through the Kohl years during reunification and Merkel in the eurozone crisis. By contrast the Social Democrats from the period under Wily Brandt, through the Schmidt years and Schroeder have operated under more of a consensus leadership. Under Sigmar Gabriel or some other Social Democratic leader Germany is likely to have a different style of leadership in the future, especially because the German public does not favor Germany playing this kind of dominant role. At different points in the eurozone crisis Merkel's leadership was needed for decisionmaking- making banks take a 50% writedown on their loans in negotiation with Charles Dallara in Brussels, calling for Italy's president to bring in a new government (led by Mario Monti) when premier Berlusconi failed to make needed changes, and providing flexibility for spending rules for Spain, Italy and France. Merkel has actually moved to the centre to maintain popular support inside Germany, especially since the new coalition government was formed with Social Democrat leader Sigmar Gabriel. On the other major issue of immigration Merkel has provided decisive leadership to prevent the rise of anti-immigrant parties in Germany. Herfried Munkler, author of "Power in the Middle," about why Germany is playing this role may provide clues to Germany's role- by representing different aspects of German public opinion Merkel has prevented the rise of right wing populist or nationalist parties in Germany, which would distort the German narrative about what it sees as its role in keeping Europe together after three wars. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
How the energy business sale of gas turbines to provide electricity in the middle east is boosting GE's energy business worldwide, increasing sales to over $20 billion in 2007, at the last peak in 2002 sales reached $22.5 billion for GE's energy business. Couple of things to note. GE's revenue is growing at about 20% a year in the middle east. Its sales in the middle east now exceed China's with $8 billion in Middle East for 2007 vs. 6 billion in China. By 2010 sales from China India Brazil and Middle East will total $50 billion compared to 30 billion today. thst is an increase of 67% over 3 years. Power is a big chunk of this in addition there are aircraft engines and health care equipment. See the other article on middle east growth July 19, 2007 WSJ. About half of the population of 300 million in the middle east is under 20 years of age. Also note the last runup in GE's stock price was from its surging energy business in the 1990's.

LyrArc Article Gist
Matthias Muller, 61, is the new choice for CEO of VW following the emissions scandal in 2015. Changes at VW with the departure of Mr. Winterkorn, include the resignation of Ulrich Hackenberg, chief engineer of Audi, Wolfgang Hatz, chief of R&D at Porsche, and Heinz-Jakob Neusser, development chief of Porsche. Hatz and Hackenberg worked closely with Winterkorn. VW says about 11 million cars were equiped with the software that turned off the emissions control mechanism on the road. This was on the VW Passat, Jetta, Audi 3, all built on the same platform and using this software to circumvent emissions controls. The new head of VW USA is Mr. Vahland, 58, head of Skoda, who is a former manufacturing strategy review chief of GM Europe. Matthias Muller, is backed by the Porsche-Piech families that are large shareholders in VW. Ferdinand Piech had actually lost confidence in Winterkorn and tried to remove him from the CEO position in April 2015, before a turn of events led to the emissions scandal. Muller completed an apprenticeship with Audi in 1977, followed by studying computer engineering at the Munich University of Applied Sciences. In 1984 he joined Audi's IT department, becoming product manager for Audi 3 in 1993, and taking on overall product management at Audi in 1995. In 2007 VW's new CEO Winterkorn appointed him head of product strategy for VW, and in 2010 to the CEO position at Porsche....

LyrArc Article Gist
Research firm Dragonomics says real estate prices fell 4.9% in April from the prior year for nine cities in China. In 2010 prices in these nine cities went up by 21.5%, the increase in 2009 was 10%. Standard Chartered estimates China's second tier cities, such as Dalian and Tianjin, could have 20 months of housing inventory by the end of 2011. Standard Chartered says price declines of 10-20% can be expected. Government data understates the extent of the bubble and the drop in prices say analysts. Beijing real estate consultant, Soufun, confirms the slowdown in price increases, saying its data show average property prices went up by 5.1% in May over the prior year, compared to the jump in prices in 2009 and 2010. Prices of copper and steel are coming down after rapid increases. The price increases in the Chinese real estate market have put housing out of the reach of ordinary couples. In 2006 an average price of a new apartment in Beijing cost $100,000, by 2011 this had gone up to $250,000. It woud take 57 years of saving for an average person to buy the apartment at todays cost. The government's response has been to boost down payments on mortgages for second homes to 60% from 40%, prohibiting state owned enterprises outside the real estate sector from investing in real estate, and raising the reserve requirements of banks....

LyrArc Article Gist
The ruling in a 5-4 decision requires the EPA to consider cost when the agency makes environmental rules. It does not remove the regulations on mercury emissions and does not prohibit the EPA from setting rules. A lower court will have to rule on how the case should be handled. Its likely effect is for the EPA to consider the price for industry compliance in setting environmental rules. The majority decision wirtten by Justice Scalia says the EPA "must consider cost- including, most importantly, cost of compliance- before deciding whether regulation is appropriate and necessary." The current EPA environmental rules were set in 2012, and were put into effect in early 2015. During the early part of the process of setting the rules the EPA did not consider cost. But in the later stages the agency estimated costs of compliance for utility sector at $9.6 billion and public health benefits of at least $37 billion. Justice Elena Kagan alluded to this in her dissenting opinion. Some utilities have received an extension on installing scrubbers to remove mercury pollutants, and these plants would now receive more time. Of the 600 power plants the EPA regulates as part of the rule, 450 are coal fired plants. Of these 35% were given a 1 year extension for compliance. About 21 states heavily dependent on coal and power companies brought this case before the court. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Von Mark Schieritz of Germany's Zeit Online describes the changes underway following the election campaigns in the U.S., and France, and the Brexit vote in Britain, all signalling the discontent of people left behind by the tech, capitalism, trade and globalization changes of the last two decades. The appeal of one time fringe politicians using racist slogans and divisive rhetoric to appeal to those left behind, appealing to people lacking intergenerational mobility, and without much hope for a better future, is a serious concern. People who are gullible enough, lack college education, or racially isolated so that they are not likely to look carefully at what is being offered in terms of programs and change of competing parties, and likely to overlook the hard and difficult road for corrective course of action, because of anger and pentup fears. Schieritz cites as part of this change the unanimously approved conclusion in its final declaration at the G-20 meeting in Chengdu, China- "The benefits of growth need to be shared more broadly within and among countries to promote inclusiveness." Yet this can be a sort of "too little, too late."  Bankers who are cited in an email going around Wall Street lack credibility with groups on Main Street, to people adversely affected by tech, trade and globalization changes that have been persistently ignored for over a decade, close to two decades. More convincing is the tone of Theresa May, the British prime minister's first statement outside 10 Downing Street- who spoke of the "burning injustices" and her determination to make this a top priority of her government. Still more convincing are the programs to invest $275 billion over 10 years in infrastructure put forward by the leading candidate in the U.S. presidential election of 2016, to provide easier access to public universities and colleges to those left behind, as a sure way to create new jobs and address intergenerational mobility. In fact every leading candidate had made the loss of upward mobility their central plank already in 2015, long before Trump and Sanders started their campaign. The real hope lies in western leaders Merkel, May, and Clinton, all keenly aware students of changes, all women by the way who have sensed the injustice and have the ability to come up with something new and promising for the future, after learning the lessons of the past. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The issue of how the deficit reduction will affect the middle class, the poor, and the elderly. Bernie Sanders says the Democrats Reid Plan and the Boehner plan both fail on this account. And he finds it incomprehensible that this is happening without similiar contributions from the higher income Americans, even though 72% of the American people- according to a July 14-17, 2011 Washington Post/ABC poll -want those earning more than $250,000 a year to pay more in taxes. And incomprehensible says Sanders that Congress is debating the Reid and Boehner plans that exempt higher income Americans from their fair share of the burden.