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Even though volatility is high in stock markets, the U.S. stock market has rebounded to levels in August 2019. The level on March 10, 2020 after effects of the coronavirus on the global economy was for the DJIA average in the U.S. to be at the level it was on August 14, 2019, as shown on the graph in the WSJ, in the neighborhood of 25,000. In the last quarter of 2019 there were steep gains in the Dow Jones averages that could not be fully explained, these gains have disappeared. Considering the suddenness of the crisis from the coronavirus in China, and the double whammy of impact on global manufacturing supply chains of first the tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S., followed by the coronavirus, the impact on stock markets seen in this overall context is comprehensible. Particularly the sharp gains in the last quarter of 2019 which now appear to be muted. There is also some good news for economies such as China and India, which are large oil importing countries, and the rest of Asia, in the sharp drop in oil prices that helps cushion some of its impact on the global economy. For the U.S. this also happens at a time when the economy is in much stronger shape than at any time in the last ten years. ...

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Greg Ip says what a difference US policy under DJT has made for energy independence and for exports. US economic growth is affected only slightly as it exports oil and LNG. Forecasts by Citi revised for the US for economic growth by only 0.1% downward for the Iran War, for the European Union by 0.4%. EU spends 1-2% of GDP to get imports of LNG and oil. US gets 0.2% of GDP for the oil and LNGit exports.  The US is in a strong position with oil policies to increase production and there is also additional supplies from Venezuela that can be added to replace Persian Gulf supplies. Which is why DJT can tell the world and the Europeans, Japan and China to get their own oil and do the job of opening Hormuz because US does not get any of its oil and LNG from Hormuz straits. In 2025 EU gets LNG from Norway 89, US 81, and Russia 37 in billions of cubic meters of imports for total in 2025 of 207 down from 257 total in 2021 because of conservation. US LNG will increase as US sells more LNG to Europe in 2026 and 2027 and reduces the little it imports from Russia. EU is doing a good job of conservation that the US can adopt to export even more to India and Japan replacing some of the supplies from the Persian Gulf nations. ...

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Light in our galaxy The Milky Way travels at a speed of 300,000 kilometres a second so that light from the moon reaches us in less than 2 seconds. There are other distances we cannot even comprehend such as it taking thousands years for light to travel from distant stars in the Milky Way to earth. And even these distant stars have contributed to life on earth say scientists. During this strange pandemic where virus can mutate and can infect 18 million in the U.S. alone and about which so little is known, this idea of the planets and stars and time puts everything in perspective. Here DW.com talks to a British astronomer who studied at University College, London and Imperial College. Giles Sparrow is the author of "The History of the Universe in 21 Stars." Giles Sparrow tells us there are 200 billion stars, think of that for a moment!  Sparrow says 61 Cygni is an obscure star in the constellation of a swan. Astronomers with today's telescopes, itself something recent, have figured out the distance. Why are stars not shifting their positions as the earth moves around the sun? The reason is that stars are so far away we can only imagine these distances, or maybe not even able to imagine. ...

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Demographic trends and Muslim populations around the world. some of the fastest growing populations are in Pakistan, India, Nigeria. Slower growth in Indonesia. In Europe faster growth in Spain and France relative to other countries. The Muslim popullation in Europe will be about 10% in places like Sweden and France in 2030. Where multiculturalism has been denounced, in Germany the Muslim population grows from 5% in 2010 to 7% in 2030, and a little over 4% to 8% in Britain. In France it goes up from close to 8% to a little over 10% in 2030. This is from research and forecasts done by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life in January 2011. It does not suggest a huge problem especially if the Muslim populations are affected by the trend to democracy in their home countries and improving standards of living, and a move towards integration in the different societies in Europe.

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The Large Institution Supervision Coordination Committee (LISCC) was setup by Fed chairman Bernanke and Fed governor Tarullo, in 2010. The Fed's 200 PhD's, bank examiners and other experts at headquarters are now tapped for the the task of looking at adverse scenarios, checking on assumptions made by the banks in their analysis, requesting data from large banks on their loan and securities portfolios, and asking banks to consider adverse scenarios. Such adverse scenarios include a decline in the U.S. economic growth of 1.5% in 2011, and decline in housing. The Fed checks the banks estimate of its financial position aginst the Fed's own standard and prods the banks to consider new risks. Before the 2008 crisis the Fed's 12 Reserve Banks did the day to day supervision and reported back to Board of Governors, a system that led to a diffusion of responsibility and did not work. Former Fed vice chairman, Alan Blinder, says the bank boards did not exercize responsibility, and "blew it, big time," during the financial crisis. This approach has the effect of acting as a early warning for the banks for things that could go wrong. J.P. Morgan Chase CFO Braunstein made a Feb 15 presentation to show that Chase's stress scenario was more stringent than the Fed's. The current review says Tarullo includes asking banks to do a check before issuing dividends to shareholders, and consider what would happen if the economy is in trouble in the next 9 quarters. According to Fed guidelines issued in November if the bank's plan does not show enough capital to handle economic, regulatory and lending risks, the Fed can challenge the bank's decision....

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In an intervew with WSJ's David Pearson, Tom Enders, CEO of Airbus, points to the changes at Airbus after improvements in governance in 2012, leading to a smaller role for the governments of France and Germany. One is the shift away from Europe. Compared to 2004 when Airbus orders were 50% from Europe, this has dropped to 10% in 2014. Airbus is also staying away from a 623 million euros loan from Germany for the new Airbus A350 widebody jet, because of pressure from the German government to allocate work to German factories. The same policy will be followed in future programs to rely less on government support. Enders does not want to be tied down to certain workshare agreements imposed by governments with the loans. In 2012 Airbus reduced the role of the German and French governments with a large increase in the percentage of shares traded on stock markets. In the past the funding was critical for programs. Today Airbus has 9-10 billion euros on its books because of booming sales.

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Analysts point to the problems with thin film solar technology- lower energy conversion rates of 15%, and quality issues. As a result its market share has remained at 10%. Analysts say Hanergy global market share in thin film is insignificant. Yet its share price soared before declining by 46%, on the basis of its claims for thin film technology. It is a sign of the nature of the Chinese stock market with share prices having a tendency to jump and decline with reports of new technology.

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HTC, a Taiwanese company makes a version of the I-phone called the Touch that sold 3 million units in 11 months. It new version coming out later this year should also be a big seller as its lighter sleeker and more powerful. It runs on Microsoft software. HTC is also participating in Google's intiative to produce a new cellphone this year using Google software is expected in the second half of this year. Both phones will make it easy to surf the internet and check email.

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Tensions continue between Nissan and Renault after the prosecution of Carlos Ghosn. Renault asks a Japanese investment bank to approach Nissan to setup a plan for a holding company. Nissan owns a smaller share of the shares in the alliance 15% stake even though it is the dominant partner, compared to 44% for Renault, and 15% for the French government.  This is the result of the original merger decades ago when Nissan was in a financial crisis. The imbalance in management control and shareholding structure is a major complaint of Japanese executives. Today nationalist sentiment in Japan, and Nissan executives see the arrangement giving Renault major management role as an affront to Japanese sentiment and underrating the contributions on the Japanese side of the alliance which is technically superior.

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To correct misgivings in many quarters about Syrian refugees not finding a haven in Gulf states, this letter from the Cato Institute points out that the population of Syrian refugees living in the Gulf states including Saudi Arabia has gone up by 1.1 million by 2013 from the beginning of the civil war. He cites World Bank data showing 241,000 Syrians living in the Gulf states before the civil war. By 2013 that number is 1.4 million. For Saudi Arabia the figures are up from 111,000 to 1 million.

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The relationship from college years at Amherst College in the U.S. of Greek political leaders Antonis Samaras and George Papandreou. The efforts to setup a national unity government that failed. The increasing support for the opposition New Democracy Party led by Samaras- with 16% unemployment- and the prospect of new elections. Samaras supports spending cuts. He also favors tax cuts, and a flat tax rate of 15% on business. Greece has a long history of tax evasion and distrust of central authority going back to centuries of Turkish rule. Samaras believes that the lower tax rate of 15% would help change the Greek cultural trait of evading taxes becaue it would be on the honor of people to pay such a basic tax. EU leaders are skeptical that lower taxes are the right policy to reduce the deficit. This adds to the political uncertainty as the new government would have to implement the measures agreed to between the current Greek government and the EU leaders. A similiar situation existed in Portugal but the recent elections there, participation of the opposition party in talks, and the newly elected government conducting its own negotiations, has removed that element of uncertainty which exists in Greece. ...

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President Obama presents a $3.73 trillion budget proposal for fiscal year 2012, for the year beginning October 1, 2011. The budget calls for $1 trillion in deficit reductions over 10 years. Three fourths of this comes from spending cuts and the rest from tax increases or elimination of tax breaks. In fiscal 2012 the budget shows savings by reducing or closing 200 federal programs for deficit reduction of $33 billion. This includes a cut to the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program of $2.5 billion. Most of the reductions are in the discretionary on-security spending portion of the budget, which is only 12% of all federal spending. No changes are made to Medicare or Social Security. Defense spending is cut by $78 billion over 5 years in this budget to bring the defnse budget to zero real growth. The Dept of Education funding would be increased from $64 billion in 2010 to $77 billion, with additional funding to increase the number of science, engineering and math teachers in schools by 100,000. The President's Deficit Commission recently proposed deficit reductions of $4 trillion over 10 years, including larger reductions in defense and reductions in spending on Medicare and Social Security....

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The Vineyard Wind Project is a major new wind energy project approved by the Biden administration. 84 turbines will be installed 12 nautical miles from Martha's Vineyard to generate 800 megawatts of electricity. This would power 400,000 homes.

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Most states do not have cleaning standards and there are reports of planes cleaned in less than 10 minutes. Even in business offices the cleaning can vary greatly. This poses a real danger to reopening the economy, saving jobs and recovery.

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Efforts to make it possible for Princess Akiko, 19 years old, the only child of Emperor Naruhito 60 years, to succeed her father. Japan has never had a female as Queen, in the manner of Queen Elizabeth in England.

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Going up - Arsenal, Inter and Bayern Munich. Going down Leverkusen, Benefica and Paris Saint-Germain in the last 16 of Champions League soccer 2025. Inter beat a Dutch team and Bayern beat Leverkusen. Barcelona beat Benefica. Paris lost to Liverpool.

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What it takes to put a CDU/SPD coalition government in Germany- 16 working groups, 250 negotiators, 10 work days. And that is only the first step. It then goes to party leaders talking with their working groups. Taxes and migration policy are 2 key hurdles. Lars Kingbeil on the Social Democrat side, Carsten Linnemann on the Christian Democrat side with to be chancellor Merz. Both sides say some friction, dissent is normal after an election in which the CDU barely crossed 29% and the SPD made it only to 16% of the vote. Both sides see each other as indispensable. CDU feels SPD is sticking to its positions. Migration- SPD's Carl Stegner says- "The SPD will not engage in a contest to treat as badly as possible those who have come to Germany and have done nothing wrong." The CDU wants to give only "bed, bread and soap," to rejected asylum seekers. It sees its promises in the election as real when it made clear statements to stop migration and cut benefits, with its credibility at stake. CDU also believes that like DJT in the USA this tough policy is certain to make such migration unattractive. The other difference is on Taxes- the SPD wants to see higher taxes on the well off. ...

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Juleanna Glover points to the need for financing of the Kurdistan regional government in Iraq as the central government in Baghdad has failed to make payments to the KRG for its share of national oil income. The KRG would receive 17% of Iraq's national oil income under negotiated agreements, but only $2 billion of $12 billion owed to KRG has been transferred in 2015. The Kurds also have to support 1.8 million refugees from Syria and Iraq with the ongoing civil war. The World Bank predicts a shortfall in funding for KRG of $1.5 billion in 2015, and it needs a $2.4 billion bridge loan. Peshmarga forces it is reported have not been paid for 3 months even as the Kurds have borne a disproportionate share of the burden in the war.

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House rules of order from the U.S. House of Representatives would have as presiding officer at the Republican National Convention, Speaker Paul Ryan. Efforts to change this were pushed back at a RNC meeting in Florida. Trump's representatives Manafort and Ben Carson attempted to repair damaged relations between the Republican National Committee, its chairman Vince Preibus, and Trump, at that meeting. The Manafort argument was that Trump's flaws were of personality not character, which would be easier to fix than that facing Hillary Clinton, yet many RNC members were skeptical of this. A April 2016 WSJ/NBC poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Trump 50% to 39%, by 11 points- the surprising finding is that the poll also shows 56% of both candidates support comes from voters anxious to avoid the alternative candidate.

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VW bonds take a big hit following the emissions scandal. The annual cost of insuring 10 million euros of VW debt against default for five years is 214,000 euros. VW's cash flow after dividends is estimated at 5 billion euros by Fitch in 2016-2017. What is happening to VW goes beyond the emissions scandal. The overly easy environment for corporate borrowing with the loose monetary policy in Europe and the U.S. has made it easy for corporate borrowers to raise money at really low rates. This environment is about to change with VW being the beginning of a shift. In January 2015 VW raised 1 billion euros, with a 15 year bond and interest rate of 1.625%. This bond has dropped in price to 85.6% of face value.

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Census data show that 41% of all Mexican Americans in New York city schools have dropped out of school. Of Mexican American immigrants ages 19-23 only 6% are enrolled in college. This becomes significant considering that Mexican Americans are the fastest growing large immigrant group in the city, numbering 183,200, up from 33,600 in 1990, according to Census figures. These figures are worse than that of the Mexican American population as a whole, because of higher rates of illegal immigration, lack of stability in households, parents holding multiple jobs and lacking knowledge of English or contact with the school. Many are not aware that illegal immigrants who graduate from high school in New York State or earn a G.E.D. are allowed to attend the state public university system and pay in-state tution.

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Greece's economy is expected to shrink by 6% in 2012 by many private sector economists in Greece. This means Greece will have a deficit closer to 10% of GDP. Antonio Samaras, leader of the New Democracy Party, is expected to win the elections in Greece to be held by spring 2012. Opinion polls show his party getting 24% of the vote, and Papandreou's Socialists getting 15%, showing how little support any party can gather in Greece. Samaras told the Journal in an interview- the contagion is spreading rapidly, and what he fears is political and social contagion from high unemployment and austerity measures. Samaras says his government would continue with the spending cuts, but also reduce the tax burden on Greek households and businesses, which he views as having worsened the recession in Greece.

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Ford announced on April 19, 2012, that it will build a $760 million plant in Hangzhou, China. This follows an announcement for $600 million expansion of a plant in Chongqing. Ford forecasts the Chinese market will grow at 5% annual rate for the next 10 years. It is planning to take sales away from other manufacturers by offering an expanded product lineup. Ford was slow to enter the Chinese market and has only 2% market share in China. The expansions will give Ford an annual capacity of 1.2 million cars in 2015, up from 450,000 in 2011. Ford's Chongqing operations are located far inland and a long distance from the west coast of China, which will make it more difficult to export if it turns out that there is too much car capacity in China.

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The Crystal Bridges Museum of American Art is under construction in Bentonville, Arkansas. The 201,400 square foot museum will open on November 11, 2011. The museum has a complex of eight gallery pavilions and is being designed by architect Moshe Safdie. It is the dream project of Alice Walton, daughter of founder Sam Walton. The Walton family has decided to make a $800 million donation to the museum. Ms. Walton conceived the project six years ago and is buying art works to build the collection. She outbid the National Gallery of Art in 2005, to buy Asher Durand's Hudson Reiver School masterpiece, "Kindred Spirits," from the New York Public Library, paying $35 million. The museum will cover the entire period of American art from the colonial era to contemporarty art works.

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The Case-Shiller Index shows a decline in housing prices of 4.2% in the first quarter of 2011. This follows a drop of 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 2010. Of the 20 cities in the index, 12 were at a post-bubble low in March 2011. The yearly drop for Minneapolis was 10%. Only Washington D.C. showed a rise in March and over the year. Housing prices are at 2002 levels. The Center for Economic and Policy Research estimates a decline of 6-8% for the rest of 2011. The excess supply of housing was estimated at 1.8 million units in April 2010 by the financial Blog Calculated Risk, which used 2010 census data for the estimate calculations. The Conference Board consumer confidence index fell to 60.8 from a revised 66 in April 2011.