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The U.S. Supercommittee in Congress fails to reach an agreement to come up with $1.2 trillion in savings to reduce the deficit by the Nov. 23, 2011 deadline. This shifts the focus to the sequester or triggering automatic cuts in Jan. 2013, as mandated in the Congressional deficit reduction deal of August 2, 2011. These automatic cuts would reduce defense spending by 10%, cut social programs without touching Medicaid and Social Security, by 7.8%, and reduce Medicare payments by 2%.

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Daisuke Wakabayashi's exceptional account of how Steve Jobs directed the project to develop the iPhone starting in 2005 upto to the introduction in 2007. At one point Jobs gives Christie, the engineer leading the very small project team, 2 months to put it together or he would find someone else to do it. This is similiar to the way in which Sony's Morita approached his project team working on the Walkman telling them what he wanted to see and the size of the device. Jobs payed attention to all the details from how the phone names addresses appeared on the screen, dialing from the phone book, the swiping action to start the device, the music, and the colors on the screen. Only in on the project's detail were Bill Campbell, Apple director, and Jony Ive, Apple design chief. Christie was approached by Scott Forestall in late 2004 about this secret project codenamed "Purple." Christie is the engineer who joined Apple in 1996 to work on the Newton, and early touch screen device that failed because the technology was not developed enough at the time, making the device bulky and cumbersome. Christie was working on software for Mac computers in 2004. Greg Joswiak, Apple vice president for iPhone marketing, monitored other phone makers to see if they were coming up with a device that migrated the iPod's music features to the phone. Hence the absolute secrecy for this project. The project team is amazingly small. The practice of small teams can be found at Amazon and Kayak....

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The Conservatives get a big boost from the 2021 budget. This budget increased the corporate tax to 25% by 2023 from 20% under previous Conservative governments of Cameron, and 19% under May. A survey by YouGov shows 55% of the British public thinks this budget is "fair," only 16% saying it is "unfair." This is the highest rating for any British budget since 2009. For Boris Johnson's Conservatives this means a 4% increase in popularity just in the last week up to 45% and Labour under Keith Starmer dropping 4% to 32%. This has opened a 13 point lead for the Conservatives likely to show up in the local elections coming up. This Conservative lead is higher than the 44% vote share for Boris Johnson's Conservatives in the general election.

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With the effects of the government tax credit fading, Commerce Department numbers show a 33% drop in sales of new single-family homes from 446,000 units in April to 300,000 annual rate in May 2010. The supply of homes for sale went up by 47% to 8.5 months in May from 5.8 months supply in Aprill 2010.

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The influence of regional political parties in India continues as the Congress party depends on the Samajwadi party in Uttar Pradesh led by Mulam Singh Yadav for its majority in parliament in 2013. This follows the withdrawal of support first of the party of Mamta Banerjee in West Bengal in 2012 on retail foreign investment issue, and the withdrawal of support of the DMK party in Tamilnadu state over the Sri Lankan issue in 2013. Not only are the regional political parties based in a particular state, they are also dominated by political personalities, such as that of Yadav in Uttar Pradesh (UP), Banerjee in W. Bengal, and Karunanidhi in Tamilnadu. Tamilnadu is in the south with a language Tamil of Dravidian origin, and W. Bengal is in the northeast near the Burmese and Bangladesh border with its own language Bengali of very different origin and completely different script. The regional parties have little in common. Some like the DMK in Tamilnadu are small parties with 18 member in parliament. Congress coalition government has 230 members and needs 270 for a parliamentary majority....

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This report in The Hindu says farm loan waiver promises at Congress party rallies contributed largely to its performance in the Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh. BJP offered only a limited waiver in UP and Rajasthan and has followed this as a matter of policy increasing the rural-urban divide that did not favor the BJP.

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Gordon Brown, former prime minister of Britain from 2007 to 2010, chaired the April 2009 G-20 meeting that came up with ways to tackle the global financial crisis. Brown also led the way by recapitalizing British banks, a step the U.S. followed. He comments on the volatility in financial markets in August 2007 following the S&P credit downgrade of the U.S.. Brown gives an incomplete grade to the tasks the 2009 G-20 set out to accomplish. He points to three goals the G-20 had set in the middle of the financial crisis in April 2009. The first was to prevent a recession from becoming a depression. The other two were to establish a financial stability regime, and a compact for growth. These two became paper promises says Brown. Brown sees the best approach to prevent a lost decade is for U.S. and Europe trading their way out of a downturn as the Asian market absorbs more industrial goods from Europe and the U.S. This includes policies that would keep commodity prices low and ways of coping with currency shocks. Analysts have pointed to an export led recovery as one of the solutions the U.S. was hoping to achieve with a lower value of the dollar. This has had only limited success because of deep structural problems- high consumer indebtedness, bad debt at the banks, weak housing sector following the mortgage crisis, and a rising U.S. deficit- which will take some time to clear. Brown does not come to grips with these underlying imbalances built up during the boom years of the last decade, both in Britain and in the U.S., during which he was the finance minister of Britain....

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A 850 megawatt solar project, the largest in the US outside of Las Vegas runs into opposition from environmentalists concerned about the effect on views and on tortoises other endangered species. The planned project on top of Mormon Mesa would put over 1 million solar panels 10 to 20 feet tall in the Nevada desert. Across the US 800 utility scale solar projects are under contract for generation of 70,000 megawatts of electricity, enough for 11 million homes, for more than Texas. Over half of this solar capacity is going into the southwestern US, with its sunshine and open land. For the first time the ardent advocates of renewable energy such as the Sierra Club are now opposing such projects. Solar made up one tenth of one percent of US energy in 2010, in 2020 it made up 4.5%. It is growing very rapidly because costs are going way down. Even before government subsidies solar is now below the cost of natural gas. Projects near Martha's Vineyard on the Massachusetts coast took 12 years to get sate and federal approval for wind energy. These battles are similar to ones being fought in Europe. The US is better positioned for solar because of vast desert spaces in the American southwest. President Joe Biden plans to use this advantage of solar and wind to get to 100% renewable energy by 2035. ...

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This NYT editorial brings up the 14-19% tax proposed by U.S. president Obama for overseas profits of U.S. companies. The 5.25% tax in 2005 under the Bush administration for repatriation of about $300 billion did not result in a positive experience says NYT, as most of the money went into dividend payments, share buybacks, and severance for laid off employees. It led to a new surge in unrepatriated profits in the expectation of another tax holiday of this type. A Senate investigation in 2013 showed Apple has $100 billion in Ireland with no tax paid on much of this amount, as cited here. The NYT says Apple shows arrogance in thinking the EU Commission which has taken up cases on tax avoidance of Fiat, Starbucks, Amazon, BASF, would not look at Apple in Ireland. It calls tax deferral on overseas profits as the root of the problem, as it allowed companies initially to look at investment opportunities, but now simply to stash the money abroad till some better tax arrangement can be achieved with U.S. Treasury. The Obama administration proposal was to immediately tax existing profits at 14%, whether repatriated or not, and thereafter at 19% on profits moved offshore. The NYT is in favor of ending corporate tax deferral altogether, and applying taxes on profits in the same year they are made.  ...

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US stock funds are up 3.6% by Feb 9, 2025, on top of 17% gained in 2024.

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The U.S. Agriculture Department lowered its forecast of corn yield per acre from 166 busherls per acre to 123.4 after a severe drought in the U.S. The projected corn harvest is expected to come in at 10.8 billion bushels, 13% smaller than the 12.4 billion bushels in 2011. The USDA forecast for corn price in August 2012 was raised at the upper end to $8.90 per bushel, up 39% from a month ago.

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Attorneys for homeowners describe the foreclosure process as a mass production line, and efforts to avoid foreclosure as a fight against a machine. In most cases a person would be needed to read what they file, but in many mortgage firms no such person existed. They describe the problem as industry wide and pervasive- and involving loan servicers, law firms, docment processing companies and others. The big mortgage companies, including government bailed out Fannies Mae and Freddie Mac, were eager to get bad loans off their books so they imposed penalties if the process was not speeded up.

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In the focus on a dazzling IPO in this report one finds no mention of what this company does at all much less its meaning in people's lives in proportion to the size of the investment. Looking up Figma one finds it enables collaboration for designing digital products. The company raised $1.3 billion for 9% of the company sold to investors making it get a value of $13 billion.

At such moments much of the razzle dazzle of IPO's raising huge tons of money for anything but kids education, and healthcare, lifestyle education, better community infrastructure including sports that directly impacts the quality of life in America, needs necessary skepticism and new vigor for a new path to be forged for the years ahead in our investment making structures and decisions.

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New affordability and choice in EV's in US under $40000 in 2025. Even without incentives from the government EV's remain an attractive option now that new gasoline cars cost an average of $49,000 and affordable EV's come at price range uder $40,000. In Germany VW has EV models for about $30,000 and this pricing and choice of models can be expected in the US in 2026. Mims looks at how EV's are now a realistic option for car buyers in 2025. Americans drive an average of 33 miles a day- the 300 mile range of new EV's means charging once a week is good enough. New EV batteries are better and can outlast a vehice's life. Savings from low maintenance costs can make up for any shortfalls for EV's.

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This report in the NYT says South Korea is putting itself at a disadvantage by investing in the US and with its commitments for buying LNG from the US. It like other articles in the NYT sells America short. The goodwill earned by Japan and South Korea by the approach to trade agreements that acknowledges the unfair treatment the US put up with from both partners for decades is something that will be remembered by the American people. Any agreement South Korea and Japan make with the US will be to the lasting benefit of the two Asian nations as it is built on shared goodwill of the American people and the people of Japan and Korea. Agreements with China are largely temporary adjustments in a larger situation of competition between the US and Europe with China and are transient arrangements.

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Financial expert Guy LeBas- questions bond investors need to think about are whether $3 trillion in AI investments are societally productive, economically and financially productive. This WSJ podcast is a discussion on the effects in the bond market of financing by AI. LeBas says the corporate bond market is dominated by banks in 2025. AI financing makes up 7% of the corporate bond market in 2025 and is likely to double to 15% with the 5 Tech companies issuing corporate bonds. He says the question is what effect this will have on the economy, on society, and the larger question is what effect it will have on the Nation's priorities- for tackling crumbling infrastructure, investing in American manufacturing shriveled after 3 decades of neglect and unfair trading practices of trading partners, tackling climate change, needed investment in pharmaceutical manufacturing in the US, in education and childcare.

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Plans to introduce its Luma line to China by June 2012 in cooperation with China Telecom. It is betting on Chinese demand for smartphones to recover. Sales of CDMA phones- China Telecom uses CDMA technology- are expected to double to 60 million in 2012 from 30 million in 2011. China provided 17% of Noka sales in 2011, mostly basic or older phones. The challenge is now to get the Lumia line up and running fast. Nokia's timing is right as smartphones are just beginning a surge in China- IHS forecasts an increase from 65 million in 2011 to 120 million in 2012. Nokia's advertising and marketing and close work with China Telecom has also to kick in for it to maximize on this opportunity.

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Indonesia's airport passenger traffic increased to 60 million in 2011, up 15% from 2010, according to the Ministry of Transportation. About 8 million were international passengers, up 23% from 2010. After the Asian financial crisis in 1997 the government relaxed restrictions on setting up an airline to stimulate the economy. There are now 18 airlines offering scheduled flights, up from 13 in 2001. Garuda spun off a low cost carrier, Citilink, and Lion Air is starting premium carrier Batik Air in 2012. The middle class in Indonesia has grown from 80 million to 130 million since 2003 creating more passenger traffic. Existing infrastructure is struggling to cope with the demand for air travel and is falling behind.

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The meeting of EU leaders in Brussels in Oct. 2012 focusses on the issue of setting up banking supervision for eurozone banks. France pushed hard for setting up the banking supervisory authority by Jan 2013. German chancellor Merkel facing elections in Sept. 2013 pushed for a longer time frame into 2013. Setting up the banking supervision, a basic part of the new eurozone financial architecture, would clear the way for direct aid to Spanish banks. In the end Germany and France agreed to complete the legislation setting up the supervisory system by the end of 2012, and getting the supervisory authority- to be placed under the ECB- operational "over the course of 2013," in Merkel's words.

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To speed up housing development in UK Labour strips environmental groups of the power to stop home building. About 150 road, rail and energy projects will be speeded up by the new rules.

Under old rules in UK regulators would ask developers to mitigate any environmental damage before approval. This is changed to where regulators approve the project and ask the developers to contribute to a "restoration fund" that would go to mitigate any environmental effects, avoiding delays.

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Marketing campaigns in 2011 for the Toyota Siena, Honda Odyssey, Chrysler Dodge Grand Caravan, Ford C-Max. Sales are up 42% for Honda Odyssey since October 2010, when 2011 models and campaign was introduced. The campaign has helped increase sales by 18.5% through November 2010, for Toyota's Siena. This is double the industry average for minivans and is a bright spot for Toyota, whose overall sales have been flat since the recalls. Toyota's Siena campaign shows rapping parents with kids in the back, making it cool to be seen in a minivan. Toyota's national marketing manager says the stories they heard were that people just did'nt want to be seen in a minivan, the soccer-mom joke or feeling playing a part in this. These ads hope to dispel that notion.

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Japan's Business Federation Keidanren chairman, Sadayuki Sakakibara, says he "expects companies to make aggressive action" to increase wages. Keidanren says wage increases of at least 2.2% should be given. Prime minister Abe attended the new year's eve party hosted by Japan's three business lobbies and asked business leaders "to make a brave decision, when can you take action if not now?" Bank of Japan chief has talked to corporate leaders asking for wage increases. He also visited the new year's eve reception of the Japan Trade Union Confederation, as a way of supporting labor's demands for higher wages. BOJ's target is for 2% inflation, and Kuroda says wage movement is critical. About 17.5% of the total workforce are union workers at large companies who are affected by union-company wage negotiations in spring. Non-regular workers make up 38% of the workforce, and the wages for this group also need to be raised to have a serious impact on overall wages.

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U.S. president Obama called Libya and the policy of not following up on helping establish a stable democratic government in Libya his biggest mistake. Kristof of the NYT says people looking back would say Syria and not establishing safe zones is Obama's biggest mistake. He describes the 470,000 deaths in Syria as a huge tragedy that could have been avoided to a large extent by setting up safe zones. In addition the UN estimates that millions of refugees on a scale similar to the partition of India in 1947 were created.There is bipartisan opinion on this. Kristof cites General Cartwright's opinion in a conversation he had with Cartwright that this should have been done. Others who agree are Madeleine Albright, Bill Clinton's Secretary of State, who spoke at the Democratic Convention about how America helped change her life as a young refugee after Russia's invasion of Czechoslovakia following Prague Spring. Albright says force should be used carefully so as not to aggravate the situation but action taken where needed, something that was done successfully under Bill Clinton in the Bosnian conflict following Serbia's ethnic cleansing policy under Milosevic. Not only that, with the diplomacy of ambassador Holbrooke Clinton was able to negotiate the peace accords that hold till today- a huge achievement.  Kori Schake, director of defense strategy in the George W. Bush White House also agrees. This would have improved U.S. relations with Turkey as this was a key Turkish request. And it would have reduced the dimensions of the refugee crisis in Europe, which has hurt the European Union. The Brexit "No" vote many in Britain have attributed to ads showing refugees in endless numbers streaming across Europe's borders. Similar ads were used in Austria's elections. Kristof points out that Secretary of State Kerry's job of negotiating a peace is difficult in these conditions. Another issue raised by Kristof is the lack of Obama's leadership in helping the refugees in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, as he points out only 41% of this is funded. David Miliband former British Foreign Secretary, who heads the International Rescue Committee , says 200,000 Syrian kids are growing up in Lebanon without an education. George Washington counseled against getting involved in the wars on the European continent for a young nation, this advice was not followed in the Reagan and other administrations without showing the carefulness needed before action is taken. As Hillary Clinton has once pointed out the situation has resembled a pendulum swinging in the other direction under president Obama, and former Defense Secretary, Panetta, has expressed similar views. Hillary Clinton and Leon Panetta, Gates, Gen. Jones, served in the first term of the Obama administration, many of these mistakes were made in the second term by president Obama and his White House advisors Dennis McDonough, Valerie Jarrett who clearly lacked the deep foreign policy experience of Hillary Clinton, Leon Panetta (who served under Bill Clinton), and Gates who served under many presidents). ...

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A study by AARP of 514 brand name and generic drugs between 2005 and 2009, shows that generic drug prices went down an average of 31% during this period, and brand name drug prices went up by 41%. One of the authors of the report says that it is important to look at individual drug prices and not studies showing total spending on drugs, because this is a significant cost for people paying out-of-pocket, It drives up insurance premiums, and pushes retirees into coverage gaps in Medicare Part D drug program. Analysts indicate pharmaceutical companies are increasing prices on drugs before patent expiration to get as much profit before the patents expire.

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France and Germany remained far apart on approach to banking regulation in Dec. 2012. Germany does not support regulatory powers of the ECB over Germany's small and midsized savings banks which lend to small businesses and consumers. France supports regulation of all 6000 banks in the eurozone by the ECB. Germany also raises concerns about how the regulatory powers of the ECB can affect its powers in setting interest rates. Germany does not support the British position for regulatory powers over London based banks to remain in Britain. Coming up with a new banking supervisor for European banks with regulatory powers of supervision is needed for Spain to get access to additional EU financing. This is also part of the new financial architecture for the eurozone, including deposit guarantees, which needs to be set up.