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France lags behind Germany and other countries in competitiveness. France's share of European exports decreased from 15.6% in 2000 to 12.5% in the first 5 months of 2011, according to Coe-Rexecode, an economics consultancy firm. Germany has used the last decade to lower social spending and state spending, bring wage restraint, and making industry more productive. France has not experienced a similiar process. Competitiveness and growth is needed for France to improve public finances. After the rise in borrowing costs to Italy France's premium over Germany to borrow for 10 years went up to 71 basis points on July 13, it is now at 62 points. France's trade deficit is rising and was 7 billion euros in April and May, according to Societe Generale.

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Friedman on the opportunity for president Morsi to move the Middle East towards a peace settlement between Israel and Palestine and acceptance of Israel in the broader Muslim community. For the U.S. it also means continuing support for the democracy movement in Egypt and the Middle East. For this to happen Israelis have to take the extra step away from the current position of being insecure in their borders and morally secure to a unknown but right direction of moving towards a lasting settlement of problems. This is looking beyond the conflicts with Syria and Iran- which are likely to be resolved by the people of Syria finally asserting themselves and the Iranian people choosing economic improvement over a weapons program.

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A former treasury secretary, and economist at Bradesco Management, Joaquim Levy, is appointed central bank chief for the second term of president Dilma Rousseff. During Rousseff's first term Brazil's currency lost a third of its value and the economy faces low growth and high inflation. Financial markets expect the new central bank chief to pursue conservative policies to keep Brazil's investment grade ratings. Levy has been in this kind of environment before. In Lula Silva's first term the economy faced many problems with high debt, prospect of default, declining currency, and lack of confidence in financial markets. Levy took over at Treasury during 2003-2006, when he pursued debt reduction and improved confidence. He is a University of Chicago trained economist and former IMF official.

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Ukraine under President Yushchenko joined the WTO, and will now work towards a trade agreement with the European Union, which should help raise living standards in this country of 46 million people still lagging behind other Eastern European countries like Poland in economic conditions. Yushchenko will support membership in the WTO for Russia, and hopes to use the dispute settling mechanisms of the WTO to settle disputes with Russia over steel, sugar and dairy products. Ukraine is the largest country in the former Soviet Union, making this one more step towards bringing Eastern European countries into trade and commercial relationships with the rest of Europe. And it provides another manufacturing location for companies in Western Europe, if wages rise significantly in Poland and the Czech Republic.

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The US has 1 trillion in trade deficits each year and it is completing the destruction of manufacturing in the US. Half of this is with China as China exports through Vietnam and Mexico, third countries, in addition to 295 billion dollars of trade imbalance the US has with China. China, Mexico, Canada and Vietnam are the largest offenders. No country can long endure with such a loss of its manufacturing base. The US Navy itself is in danger without the manufacturing to compete with China in shipbuilding. China has taken up over 50% of shipbuilding, and soon the US Navy will not be able to protect the free world if these types of economists and self serving German or other foreign interests drive a false narrative and the US acts on such false narratives.  Without the US Navy in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans no one is safe, not Germany, not the EU, not India, not Latin America or the rest of Asia and the world.

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The oldest person to sail around the world alone, non-stop and unassisted is a British woman. She is 77 years old. She comes from Lymington, Hampshire in England. Jeanne Socrates ended her 320 days voyage in Victoria, Canada. This is also the second time she has done it. In 2013 she was the oldest woman to make the circumnavigation of the world. Her boat is 38 feet long called Nereida. The mainsail and backupsail sustained damage, and solar panels were lost overboard.  The wind gods she said were not with her and she had two cyclones off Hawaii to avoid, and one in the Indian Ocean to avoid. She wasted time with that. She has received a lot of support, which she says comes from people realizing and appreciating the way she persevered and overcame so many problems on the way around in different oceans, showing it can be done. Shortly after retiring she and her husband took up sailing. After her husband died in 2003 she continued sailing. She took up the daunting effort to learn all about the systems on the Nereida and dealing with a whole range of problems. Her first attempt at nonstop sailing around the world was in 2009, when rigging problems led to giving it up. Another effort four years later in 2012 also failed. She persisted and in 2013 made the successful attempt. Jeanne Socrates has overcome a number of setbacks in her career. In 2017  before she made her current effort she fell off her boat, breaking her neck and ribs as she prepared. She recovered from that fall. A look at her website shows how she has persevered over many, many years, making repeated attempts, following  up with more effort after the last one failed. That she also brings a cheerful positive attitude throughout and enjoys nature, birds, and meeting people on land during her trips from Sweden to Mauritius, to Mexico, is clear from looking at the many photographs on her website.   ...

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Spain's Finance Minister Luis de Guindos talks with reporters House and Perez from the Journal in March 2012. He says the situation Spain faces is very serious and the risks of declining growth are high. He points out that either way Spain loses, if the spending cuts and higher taxes lead to further decline in growth, markets are likely to penalize Spain with higher interest rates on its debt; and if Spain is seen as not doing enough to reduce its deficit, markets will penalize Spain. The yield on Spain's 10 year bond increased to 5.3% on April 2, 2012. The 2012 budget presented by Luis de Guindos calls for 27 billion euros ($36 billion) in cuts to reduce the deficit to 5.3% from 8.5% in 2011. Spain's situation is precarious because the cuts come when unemployment is at 20%, and youth unemployment exceeds 50%. A general strike in March 2012 over labor reforms brought protests drawing over 800,000 people. The government's forecast is for the Spanish economy to contract 1.7% in 2012. Luis de Guindos says half of the 2012 budget provisions have been implemented, with 15 billion euros of cuts implemented in December 2011, and new taxes presented in the 2012 budget implemented immediately. To help local governments with poor finances and owing suppliers 30 billion euros, the Spanish government has set up credit lines as a stimulus move. The net impact of the budget actions, stimulus move, and declining economic growth will be to increase Spain's debt to GDP ratio from 68.5% in 2011 to 78.5% in 2012, according to Luis de Guindos. Spain's plan is for gross issuance of government bonds of $86 billion in 2012....

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The failure of the northern electricity grid in India and the huge power outage in 8 states affecting 369 million people on July 30, 2012. This includes the capital city of New Delhi. The outage was a result of the northern grid taking more than its quota of power from the national electricity grid in India. Analysts say India has a shortage of about 10% of electricity needs. Over half of India's electricity generation capacity of 205 gigawatts is based on coal. Coal India which is the largest producer has failed to meet growing demand and the coal shortages are making it difficult to expand power capacity. The national plan is to increase capacity by 44% in 5 years.

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The meeting of EU leaders in Brussels in Oct. 2012 focusses on the issue of setting up banking supervision for eurozone banks. France pushed hard for setting up the banking supervisory authority by Jan 2013. German chancellor Merkel facing elections in Sept. 2013 pushed for a longer time frame into 2013. Setting up the banking supervision, a basic part of the new eurozone financial architecture, would clear the way for direct aid to Spanish banks. In the end Germany and France agreed to complete the legislation setting up the supervisory system by the end of 2012, and getting the supervisory authority- to be placed under the ECB- operational "over the course of 2013," in Merkel's words.

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Hollande served as mayor of the town of Tulle in central France for 7 years. During these years he worked hard to modernize schools, provide home care for the elderly and improve finances in a relatively poor town. He is remembered for his hands on style, freely talking to people about their problems. Hollande moved to this region from his birthplace in Rouen, so that he could contest the seat here in elections back in 1981, over thirty years ago. He lost that election but won in 1983 as a local councillor for Ussel, which is close to Tulle. In 1988 he is elected to France's parliament from Correze, loses in 1993, and comes back to win in 1997.

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G.E. reported profits of $5.1 billion from operations in the U.S. in 2010. Its American tax bill? G.E. paid no taxes, claiming a tax benefit of $3.2 billion. G.E. does this by lobbying for tax breaks, aggressive strategies for reducing taxes including concentrating its profits offshore, and innovative accounting. G.E. has a large tax department, which some call the nation's largest tax law firm. Other firms are following the same practices The corporate share of the U.S. tax receipts has fallen steeply over the years- down to 6.6% in 2009 from 30% in the 1950's. This raises all sorts of questions in the current budget deficit situation facing federal and local governments.

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This WSJ editorial describes the contribution made by Lee Kuan Yew to economic freedom. Chinese premier Deng looked at Singapore as a model for China's capitalist development under the leadership of the Communist Party. In the last decade Singapore's people are looking for political freedom and an open political system, calling for changes in the existing system which favors Lee Kuan Yew's PAP Party. A similiar situation exists in Malaysia where the United Malay National Organization Party has run the government under Tunku Abdul Rehman, Tun Abdul Razak, and Mahathir Mohammed, for over 50 years since since independence from Britain in 1959. Through different methods the two parties have prevailed by keeping the opposition weak.

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For the first time in decades the U.S. trade deficit with China is falling significantly. China's exports to the U.S. dropped 12.5% to $296 billion in 2019 from $323 billion in 2018, according to Chinese customs data. Actually China's trade surplus with the U.S would have fallen even more had not the U.S. exports to China declined by 21%. With the Phase 1 trade deal negotiated recently U.S. exports to China will increase significantly, while 25% tariff on $250 billion in Chinese goods still in place limits China's exports. This means in 2021 and 2022 and years ahead China's surplus should shrink much faster achieving one of the principal goals of Mr. Trump and his trade negotiator Mr. Lighthizer. Mr. Lighthizer was chosen by Mr. Trump for having accomplished a similar goal decades back in the eighties with Japan's surplus. Even though China has not stated this in writing, American officials have said China will increase purchases of American goods and services by at least $200 billion over the next 2 years from 2017 levels. China and the U.S. have essentially agreed that the two economies so tightly intertwined works to the detriment of the U.S. with the Chinese surplus creating tensions. China will now have the European Union as the largest trading partner followed by south east Asian countries, and other regions. China decided that its priority is technological development and was unwilling to meet U.S. demands to reduce its efforts for technological competition and access to western technologies. Instead opting for shifting it economy away from dependence on exports to the U.S. in a gradual way. The other demand of the U.S. for stopping state subsidies is also a concession China is not willing to make as it sees it as an economic feature of its business model that is working and a competitive advantage.  This leaves the U.S. with a limited win so that trade and resulting jobs can be brought into favoring the U.S. a key Trump goal, and not a win in the technological competition with China which will continue. ...

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Pakistan prime minister Imran Khan visits the White House to meet president Trump. Mr. Trump welcomes Khan and lauds the Pakistani leader as an athlete and a leader. He tells him trade deals can be struck, future was bright and flow of aid can be turned on. Trump makes a casual offer to help mediate the dispute between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, even though it is certain that nothing comes out of this, because of India's position not welcoming other countries doing any mediation. At the heart of this reconciliation is Afghanistan and president Trump's conviction that Pakistan can get the U.S. out of Afghanistan. Trump stated this- "I think Pakistan is going to help us out, to extricate ourselves. Pakistan is going to make a difference." The idea is that Pakistan can persuade the militants, the Taliban, into a face saving settlement that will allow American troops to come home. Mr. Khan in turn stated that Pakistan had given up its policy of using Afghanistan to give it "strategic depth" against India. The army would not go behind the back of the civilian government to conduct a policy of its own. Mr. Pompeo and Mr. Trump are impatient to get this done. The deadline of Mr. Pompeo is September 1 and talks continue between the Taliban and representatives from Afghanistan. The U.S. effort is handled by Zalmay Khalizad. How Afghanistan is governed in the future is not determined and Pakistan has a key role to play in making a sensible solution take place if it decides that something new has to be tried.  In the past U.S. governments from both parties lacked the ability to take a good hard look at the facts the origin and evolution of this dispute. To tackle it directly with a willingness not only to call it for what it is but also to give the other side an incentive to try new solutions. The inventive style of the Trump administration to tackle the situation directly, but also come up with new and novel solutions is what is now being tried. ...

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This opinion in the DW.com after the selection of ExxonMobil's Rex Tillerson as U.S. Secretary of State, asks whether the exploitation of natural resources and gaining advantages in trade agreements replaces concern for human rights. Still it says after all these concerns Rex Tillerson deserves a fair chance.

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This Wall Street Journal editorial comes out in favor of higher capital reserve requirements similiar to that suggested by Federal Reserve Board governor Daniel Tarullo. The Journal says that if regulators are serious in the U.S. about controlling systemic risk, then the 14% rule or a 15% rule for assets held in reserve by banks should be adopted. Daniel Tarullo had suggested a 14% capital reserve requirement. These requirements would be phased in gradually over several years. Basel III requirements require only a 7% requirement and is phased in over many years. Capital standards are likely to be gamed. For this reason the requirement for only Tier 1 capital to be eligible is essential. What about the Basel III standards and the European banks? Would this put them in a better position to earn higher returns. This should be a problem left for European taxpayers to tackle says the Journal. As long as U.S. taxpayers are supporting U.S. banks with an implicit subsidy to take on larger amounts of risk -because they will be saved in a crisis with taxpayer dollars- the Journal says it makes sense to require 10-14% in capital reserves. It cites the Japanese banks which were highly overleveraged with lower capital reserves compared to American banks, and fared poorly. The Dodd-Frank bill imposes a complicated set of regulatory requirements with regulators required to write new sets of rules. The editorial concludes that it is far better to tackle the problems in the banking system with a sufficiently high requirement for capital reserves to manage risks than to have the detailed rule making on every subject that Dodd-Frank suggests....

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WSJ tells the story about Biden being slow to act in 2021 and 2022 to close the Southern Border, without telling the complete story and all the facts. Biden did close the Border in 2024 by executive order- when Trump blocked passage of Republican Lankford's legislation in Feb 2024 supported by Biden to close the southern Border. No mention is made that Biden was faced with a once in a century pandemic, winning the fight for vaccines over skepticism, and on Feb. 22 2022 Putin launching an attack on Kiev, Ukraine, and negotiating to get the crumbling infrastructure of the US rebuilt, funds for CHIPS and Science. On top of this the Venezuelan economy completely collapsed leading to an unanticipated migrant surge. Only FDR and Lincoln faced so many huge challenges and tackled them one by one. Without these facts the result can be to stall the biggest boom in manufacturing under president Biden/Harris that America has experienced since the space race in the 1960's. ...

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The slow growth on spending in services is affecting economic recovery in the U.S. in 2011-2012. Spending on discretionary services since the second quarter of 2009- other than housing and health care- is up 2.8% according to Wall Street Journal analysis of Commerce Department data. This is affecting gym memberships, eating out, air travel, and other postponable purchases. By comparison spending on consumer goods is holding up better. Spending on goods was up 9.1% in the same period. This shows up in sales of autos, flat screen televisions, and other electronics. Alan Krueger, chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisors, says services account for about half of GDP, and over half of jobs, and points to the lack of growth in discretionary services.

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In an effort to not cede the market in tablets and smartphones completely to Apple and Google, and e-books to Amazon, Microsoft is now in an alliance with Barnes & Noble's Nook digital business, and Nokia in smartphones. The deal with Barnes & Noble's Nook, includes an agreement to bring out a Nook application that will bring access to digital books, magazines and newspapers to Windows devices. Microsoft will get a share of revenues from sales of this content. For Barnes & Noble this is an alliance with a well funded company, at a time when the digital business is losing money because of the huge investments needed to compete. Markets recognized this by pricing Barnes & Noble shares over 50% higher after the announcement, up to $20.75.

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The graph showing the monthly volume of issued bonds shows that the bonds issued came to a complete halt in October 2008, leading to a collapse in this market, making consumer finance almost impossible to get. The action by the Fed to lend $600 billion to investors to buy these bonds is an effort to unclog these markets for consumer finance. It also comes as the market for cars collapsed in October, with auto loan financing difficulties a major factor in this collapse, especially for GM. The market for mortgage securities issued by Fannie and Freddie also seemed to be drying up as investors and foreign central banks shunned Fannie and Freddie, resulting in the spread over Treasury bonds for these securities issued by Fannie rising from 0.7 percentage points in September to 1.7 percentage points in October 2008. The Fed announced that it would buy $600 billion of these securities starting December 1, 2008, and hire asset managers to manage this portfolio for the Fed. Mortgage rates dropped half a point to to 5.5% on the announcement injecting some life in to housing markets. This does not help the 11.8 million homeowners under water, and those facing foreclosure, and it does not help those buyers who do not qualify for mortgages. It does help those who were responsible in their finances through the recent years and helps others refinance. So it helps those who were better off but started cracking under this economy. So it does not change the underlying fundamentals say some experts, but it does help keep some life in the housing markets say other experts. The Case-Shiller index of housing prices which declined 15.1 % in the second quarter, declined 16.6% in the third quarter, year over year. This helps keep up the prices from severe drops, but even the lower mortgage rates from this Fed action may not last as the rates dropped after the rescue of Fannie and the again started creeping upwards again. . . ...

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Bank of America's mortgage unit will have a new head who reports directly to CEO Brian Moynihan. Terry Laughlin who worked previously with Moynihan at FleetBoston Financial will head the unit. The unit is called the "Legacy Asset Servicing" group and has 1.3 million delinquent loans. This is part of an effort to deal with the losses from delinquent loans. As part of this effort the bank will exit the busiess of reverse mortgages to concentrate on critical areas. Because of the bad loans that came with the acquisition of Countrywide in 2008, the mortgage unit lost $8.9 billionin 2010. In the fourth quarter the bank also recorded a $2 billion noncash impairment on a drop in value of that business and took a $4.1 billion provision to cover buybacks of mortgages that government agencies and others purchased from Countrywide.

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Foreign investment in the auto industry is having a significant impact in the growth of Mexico's middle class. VW has plants in Puebla, General Motors in Silao, Chrysler in Toluca, Nissan in Aguascalientes. Production increased by 24% in February 2012 over the prior year. The growth is likely to continue. Facilities in Mexico have high productivity and are technologically equiped comparable to plants in the U.S., Europe and Japan. Nissan plans a $2 billion investment in a plant in Aguascalientes. Because of the lower cost of living, with food, transportation and health care costing less, even though household appliances cost more, workers at a Mexican plant earning $4 an hour in pay and benefits or $130 a week can still have a decent standard of living. Foreign investment is likely to grow with Mexico's emphasis on technical education - about 130,000 engineers graduating each year according to Mexico's president Calderon- the work ethic of young Mexicans joining manufacturing plants, the productivity of these lower cost plants, and a growing market in Latin America. Nissan plans to produce 1 million cars in Mexico with an investment of $2 billion in Aguascalientes. Nissan has succeeded in taking over from VW as the preeminent manufacturer in Mexico, and has 32,000 workers in the Aguascalientes area, once a small town but now a thriving city of 700,000. Drug cartels have no interest in places like Aguasalientes, which is why foreign investment continues to come into Mexico. The lack of economical credit- interest rate on car loans is about 10%- and the flow of about 600,000 used cars each year into Mexico from the U.S. has restricted growth in Mexico's automobile market. Jose Munoz, Nissan's senior executive for Latin America sees this changing as more credit including Nissan's new financing center in Aguascalientes make lower cost credit easily available to a growing middle class....

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The deterioration in the Irish banking crisis. An additional 13 billion euros will be needed by Irish banks to pay bad real estate debt, after this round of stress tests in March 2011, according to Ireland's Central Bank. This is on top of the 85 billion euros rescue package after collapse of the banks, and the 10 billion euros given by the EU and the IMF. Some estimates say the cost of the banking bust could reach $140 billion for a country with GDP of $241 billion. Ireland's interest payments on debt are estimated to rise to 13% of government revenues by 2012. Serious calls are being made for bondholders to share in the losses as the crisi escalates. Daniel Gros, Director of the Center of European Policy Studies, says policymakers in Europe saw the experience of Lehman Brothers and do not want to see a repeat of that experience at any cost. The weak banks in Germany and other lender countries are too politically connected in his view to be allowed to fail. German banks hold $62 billion in Irish Greek and Portuguese debt and French banks hold $26 billion. Hypo Real Estate, taken over by the German government, holds $14.5 billion of this debt. Bank assets in Europe are a larger share of the national economies in Europe than in the U.S. making the situation more intractable- In Britain over 3.5 times the economy, Ireland 2.5 times, in Netherlands 4.4 times, in France 3.25 times, in Spain 2 times and in Germany 1.5 times GDP, compared to 60% of GDP in the U.S. After the Irish government decided to guarantee the debt of its banks two years ago, Irish taxpayers are stuck with the entire cost of bad debt at the Irish banks....

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A steady decline in the price of Brent crude from $115 to $92 in the period from June to October 2014. Slow or no economic growth in Europe, and declining growth in China was the main reason. A cut in oil price by Saudi Arabia in September with lack of coordination in OPEC to control supplies when prices are declining, and increasing supplies from the U.S., provided additional basis for price declines. This price decline comes as large energy companies invested heavily in mega-projects to bring more oil supplies when prices were up to $128 by mid-2012. Consulting company EY estimate is that there are 163 such mega projects worth $1.1 trillion underway, most behind schedule and over budget. The projects were based on oil prices being over $100. Oil field development costs are increasing rapidly. Douglas Westwood, a consulting firm, estimate is that productivity of upstream capital spending has fallen by a factor of 5 since 2000, declining by 5% a year, as oilfield equipment and services demand exceeds supply. Greater technological sophistication also adds to cost such as Shell's Nobel Bully platform for deep sea drilling. See link- Noble Bully. Oil majors are now cutting spending, and some planned big projects are on hold. About $300 billion in assets may be up for sale. Shell plans to cut spending by 20% in 2014, Exxon and Chevron 5-6%. Shale oil projects in America need about $57 to be profitable with an internal rate of return of 10%, by one estimate. Yet this is an average and does not reflect differing producer costs. This estimate does not reflect the high cost producers, some of whom need closer to $110....

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A very relevant comment about the media coverage on Putin's negotiations in Beijing for supplying natural gas to China, by a reader of the WSJ, Frank Peel. He points out China and Russia do not share the same goals and Putin talked about the Chinese as tough negotiators after signing the deal. The price as a "commercial secret" is because its years, could be 5, before gas actually flows to China from Siberian fields. Russia, is a smaller oil based economy- having failed to make the transition to a diversified economy- and very susceptible to the economic conditions in Europe and the U.S., as the 2008 crisis showed with very steep drops in output. President Obama has also pointed to this. Russia also shares with Argentina the tendency for elites- in the case of Russia a newly created oligarchy of business interests under Putin and his predecessor- to shift capital out of the country, making it even more susceptible to loss of value of the currency, the ruble. Devaluation of the ruble experienced under Yeltsin was severely traumatic for Russia, and the head of Russia's central bank went on state television recently to reassure ordinary Russians that this would not happen. The rainy day sovereign fund of over $400 billion acts as a cushion for shocks in short periods, but sustained loss of foreign investment would damage prospects for future improvements in standards of living or economic growth....