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Tim Cook is interviewed by Jenna McGregor of The Washington Post. He describes the problems he faces running Apple. He had expected Jobs to stay on as  chairman to continue leading the company even after the illness. Cook thought Jobs would "bounce" back. The death of Jobs was a big blow for Cook. Cook describes taking advice from Jobs's wife Lucerne at key moments. For tax issues before Congress he talked to Blankfein of Goldman Sachs, on political issues with Bill Clinton, and on personal issues with Anderson Cooper of CNN. The books he is reading include Mohandas Gandhi's "The Story of My Experiments with Truth," that he found at the Gandhi Ashram in Gujarat, India, on a recent visit. 

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Pearlstein raises the question, are there business leaders who believe that what's good for America, is good for business, rather than the other way around. Google, like other technology companies, pays much less in taxes than the corporate tax rate suggests. Research by the Washington Post shows this to be 18%, not 35%, for 2009.

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Tumblr is a microblogging site with about 100 million users but very small revenue of about $13 million. Yahoo is acquiring Tumblr in a $1.1 billion all cash deal. Tumblr was started by David Karp in 2007, has 175 employees, and is based in New York. Tumblr made it easy for users to create blogs and post comments, photos and videos, and Tumblr users can follow other user's updates in the manner of Facebook users following their friends in social media. It has 108 million blogs and 117 million users worldwide, according to comScore Inc.

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Jonathan Ive, Apple's design chief, talks about what it is like working as part of a very small team that included Steve Jobs and Tim Cook for two decades. Jobs complete focus was on creating great products. The innovative products were created through the work of very small teams, says Ive. Two attributes the team members had to have are being inquisitive and curious. Making the product, manufacturing it using new technologies for materials like light weight titanium, was not something tacked on at the end, but something that was addressed as part of the design at the outset. Form, material, process- the design development and making- are intertwined thorughout, says Ive. For titanium that meant complete redesign, discovering new partners to work with, and hiring a new organization. This put Tim right at the heart of things and deeply involved right from the beginning. Ive repeats the idea focussed small team effort, and says this is no platitude. Titles, organizational structures are insignificant in this setup. Today Ive meets 3 times a week with Tim Cook. Tim sees design as an effort to articulate how a user sees the object, and credits Cook with a unique ability for giving this special attention and working to understand how an object is perceived....

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Peers says Amazon's strategy is flawed and the new Kindle Fire tablet will cut into Amazon's already low margins. He points to the analysis of components going into tablets by IHS iSuppli, which found materials costs alone come up to over $262. For companies making hardware such as Samsung and Sony the tablets have to be priced higher. By pricing the Kindle Fire at $199, Amazon CEO Bezos, may be counting on the tablet boosting Amazon's retail business, the digital music, and the streaming of videos, and bookstores. Surveys show the tablet being used mainly for web surfing or email, and less for watching video or reading books. Amazon has the Kindle e-reader which is a better option for readers because of the price. And video sources include other suppliers including YouTube and Netflix. Apple still has the edge in resources- $76 billion in cash and investments in mid 2011- to support lower prices on newer versions of the iPad with more capabilities and design features. Apple with its supply chain experience may be able to obtain better costs from component suppliers than Amazon for future price reductions. Sony and Samsung also bring the manufacturing knowhow and expertise to do this, with Sony's added capabilities in designing devices. The H-P tablet experience shows how quickly a tablet can become obsolete in this market....

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One reason Republicans and Democrats are looking at taxes paid by business is that some corporations are paying very low taxes. This report in the WP cites GE's annual filing showing GE (General Electric) paid a low of 4.2% in taxes in 2013. By plugging tax loopholes U.S. president Obama's budget proposal for 2015 would raise $276 billion in higher taxes from these large corporations for overseas earnings over the next decade.

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The tech boom bust since 2000 that has hurt America and Europe and which also laid the foundations for the loss of manufacturing and technology to China, ceding American leadership and critical advantage, is shown here in the WSJ. The role of the finance sector  is explained here. That has added one more factor to the factor of endless wars in the Middle East, where American and European investment in healthcare, education and new infrastructure was somehow diverted away, and much of America's and Europe's resources wasted- or not turned to the benefit of the people of America or Europe.  One financial firm that rode the tech boom to the hilt finds itself with unacceptable losses except in a severe recession. Tiger Global Management was using tens of billions of dollars from pensions, endowments and rich clients riding on some of Silicon Valley's hottest stocks.  With the plunge in tech stock values including startups in which Tiger pushed into aggressively now facing large losses after hyper valuations, Tiger's hedge fund which managed $23 billion at the end of 2021 was down 52% in 2022. Another of its funds that managed $11 billion has lost 62%. WSJ says this wiped out two thirds of the gains Tiger has made in the tech stocks since its founding. In addition large writedowns are expected on its venture funds valued at $64 billion at the end of 2021, says WSJ.  WSJ says cheap money (money somehow diverted from infrastructure and funding manufacturing in China instead of the US now goes by the misnomer cheap money) reshaped Silicon Valley in the last decade, as pension funds, rich investors and celebrities turned to well connected money managers such as Tiger to put money in tech stocks and startups. This WSJ report says compared to Sequoia Capital and an earlier generation of venture companies Tiger Global is simply not interested in management of companies it invests in, taking a broad brush approach, using Bain Capital for research, and trying to haul in a large load of fish like trawlers at sea hoping for some companies to make big gains. Many pension funds such as Calpers California's public pension fund invest in Tiger with a $400 million investment. WSJ also reports that Tiger Global's venture funds do not reflect the realities of the tech business as venture stocks will reflect the drop over 2022 and 2023, including its ByteDance Chinese tech investment which will need larger writedowns. Tiger has also not hesitated to get into cryptocurrency which has loss of about $1.5 trillion dollars. It is of interest to note that Julian Robertson, hedge fund manager of the 2000 period (when Clinton-Bush were US presidents) who ran Tiger Management provided the impetus for Mr. Coleman, then 25 years old, for the start of Tiger Global. Julian Robertson closed his fund in 2000 during the dot com bust. Coleman hired a Blackstone analyst and started on the next cycle of tech with social media platform Facebook now Meta, followed by China's JD.com as investments in a new China boom were started. The end result is that during a period of Middle East wars under Bush and Obama, and building dependence on Russian oil and gas supplies under Schroeder and Merkel, China was the gainer as the US and EU lost much of its manufacturing and technology to China. During this period US and Europe neglected investment in infrastructure that would benefit the people of America in ease of living and quality of life. Just as money was wasted in wars much of the tech investment was wasted. The companies that added value over time were started long before and relied on sales growth and new products that revolutionized their field such as Apple with smartphones that started well before the nineteen eighties, Amazon with logistics and its own style of management, Microsoft from an even earlier era. Tech monopolies Facebook, Google, and others would not be missed much in terms of real progress for the people of America. The cost is many decades of ceding manufacturing and technology advantage to China by US and the EU led by Germany. China 2030 and the war in Ukraine with China's support have shown how fragile the foundations have been with weak political leadership and a finance sector running backwards in terms of America's and Europe's strengths in new infrastructure, better healthcare, services and education for the people of America and Europe. Leaving it to the Biden administration and a new coalition of Greens and Scholz in Germany to begin the task of rebuilding America and Europe on strong foundations, including the dignity of the workers and families, that makes who we are and what we believe in, and why the free world believes in us. ...

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Germany has shown that low tech contact tracing efforts work- no apps needed, a phone, a desktop computer with a centralized database, and most important the human relations skills of the person doing the calls. The  sensitivity to the situation facing each person being called, being able to talk to the person in the language they speak in a multilingual environment such as California, is shown here. A 40 person team operates in San Francisco consisting of public health officials, clinicians, medical students and librarians. They call the contacts of people with coronavirus, arrange tests, and as needed send packages of food and medicines to hotel rooms or homes. Every call is expected to last 15 minutes but all sorts of questions are handled.  English and Spanish are used. Here one of the persons doing the contact tracing says she does not use apps, just an open source software used in the fight against Ebola. Definitely low tech, no waiting, get going is the message to every city in the world. She says apps software such as what Google and Apple are putting out can tell you whether the person went to some place, but cannot tell you more about that person, cannot tell you about problems the person is having being tested, and how they are having difficulty providing for families. One of the big lessons from Germany and efforts such as this one in San Francisco, and in other places such as Paris, Singapore, Taiwan, is that there is a complex nature to contact tracing that cannot be solved by tech. In fact the best thing to do is to get started immediately, with a phone and a database on a computer, as long as you have a person who has the motivation and skills, empathy with people, a lot can be done. Waiting for apps is a dangerous waste of time is shown by the low tech German experience, and the experience in other places. Most important is starting immediately. The example shown here of working with migrant workers in contact tracing shows in the most vulnerable places it is these human relations skills that count, that no tech app can do. It requires detective skills to find out and get people to share their history of movements and contacts for 14 days . In Singapore crowded dormitories house 300,000 of 1.4 million migrant workers. Singapore using an app also but its use is secondary. Apps don't work in many situations but fail in the most critical situations such as these dormitories and other eccentric or atypical situations such as faced by South Korea with religious groups and gay communities, elderly people in Europe, that generate the worst dangers of spread and need to be cluster isolated quickly. Human contact tracing has a history of being an effective method and was used in China and South Korea during the 2003 SARS epidemic. More countries need to adopt the method used in Asia and in Germany, particularly Britain, the U.S., France and India. It is OK that Britain's NHS and India's national government with Aarogya Setu app have put out their own apps which balance privacy concerns with the need to act immediately and cover the entire country, but the hard slog of human contact tracing teams in each district is indispensable. This is why the former Health minister in Britain calls it Britain's national mission to do this. Speed is key- putting together teams across the country in every district from skilled volunteers or government workers, and pulling together the phone and a centralized database on a computer as basic equipment. The fact that this is easily doable and people with human skills needed can always be recruited as they have been in Germany- from public officials in local government who are less busy in lockdowns, medical students, clinicians, volunteers, people from different professions- makes it inexcusable not to learn from others experience and get going. Just Do It. You want to reopen business, professions, offices and public services- Just Do It, it makes this possible. You want to prevent spread of the virus- Just Do It, it makes this possible. You want to limit damage to the economy and get the recovery going- Just Do It, it makes this possible. People of all shades of opinion can agree on this- its the only thing that works, even when there is a lack of enough proper accurate testing. ...

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Geoffrey Hinton, a pioneer in the development of AI, resigns from Google and warns about the dangers of AI. He says AI poses profound risks to humanity and society. He says it is hard to see how bad actors would not misuse AI for bad things.

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This report in The Guardian shows that ChatGPT is nothing new. The first version of this kind of generative AI was developed in 1966 at MIT by a computer scientist Weizenbaum, who called it Eliza. The buzz around it like that around ChatGPT was that it was thinking and acting on its own, the way humans like to think it did, but in fact Weizenbaum showed that it was simply code written to take what was given to the computer as input and spitting it out in a different way that made it look that it was acting on its own, when it clearly was nothing but parroting it out like a parrot. The issue of turning our world over to robots based on AI is controversial and even dangerous. A Japanese futuristic movie shows how the man who has written the code for the master computer that runs everything in Japan is disillusioned about it and finds himself in a nightmare world where the machine tries to isolate and eliminate the man who created it. Machines cannot think or have emotions like humans do and it is these emotions, rethinking, that the world depends on for its survival. Can anyone say that a machine would have made the decision that Chinese president Jinping just made in January of making a complete u turn and moving away completely from lockdowns into a complete opening with a plan that appears to have worked and is reviving China's economy following the street protests by informal groups including young women? ...

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Without human consciousness Ai's simply lack the vital elements of what makes us human. So called intelligent behaviours don't amount to much in this the most important aspect of our behaviours that makes us human in the way we have evolved over long periods of time. A recent Japanese movie showed how even the creators of AI that runs things in a futuristic Japan find themselves trapped in an AI run society, and how AI fails Japanese society.

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Rina Bliss, a professor of sociology at Rutgers, says while AI can bring information to kids it cannot make them think. To truly learn children will have to do it themselves and in interaction with teachers, parents and other children. She took the approach of a scientist and let her two children try out AI tools and software and came to this conclusion. One reason she says is that AI is based on computational intelligence and the human mind and brain are not quantifiable. The brain is flowing like a river and always learning from its environments.  There is a social environmental piece says Marin, there is interaction, there is a drive to know and connect, curiosity and passion that are part of learning.  Basically AI is developed through taking vast amounts of information collecting it and ordering it in a certain way. How each originator of the AI orders it affects how it will work. And what is in the basket of information collected will affect how it will work. There is no thinking brain outside of the human originator who put a particular version together. Like every piece of software there are implicit or explicit instructions on how to use the basket of information collected that is put in by an originator who developed the AI software. For these reasons it will only do basic tasks and is not intended for complex tasks that involve thinking processes and social-emotional aspects of human behaviour. The risks of using it begin to grow as soon as it is used for tasks it was never intended to perform such as replacing the human thinking  processes and the socio-emotional aspects of these processes.  If it is used to do things it was never intended for, the larger the activities it performs, the larger the mistakes and risks it it is liable to make or create. If it is assigned the task of transportation for a country, it will at some point be asked to think and at that point it will fail to make the right decisions, making the risks grow exponentially, very, very fast, leading to disaster. ...

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This condensed adaptation of the book by McNish and Silcoff on the collapse of Blackberry with the launch of the iPhone, tells a story of complacency at Research in Motion. Supreme Court Justice Brandeis once said that complacency was like all the seven sins rolled into one. In the smartphone industry the results were lethal. RIM founders Lazaridis and Balsillie responded to the iPhone launch believing this would not affect Blackberry. The founders rationalized that what would determine success in the business was security, battery life, ability to type, and using less capacity so as not to strain networks, areas in which RIM was strong and on which it had built its market presence. Design, using mobile to offer broad access to internet content, and the touch screen, were not seen as changing the very nature of the phone market. During the summer of 2007 many users shifted to the iPhone, and it cultivated a cult following using strategies Apple had honed on earlier product launches, reaching 1 million in sales. RIM was completely unprepared and could offer Verizon Communications a prototype called the Storm, which was launched hastily with product glitches still remaining. This happened in November 2008 and turned out to be complete disaster- initial sales were great selling 1 million units in 2 months of 2008, but reversed when almost all of the units were returned because the browser was slow and the clickable screen did not respond well. Nokia, another competitor, is also caught unawares sticking to its formula of success, when all the rules were being rewritten by Apple by showing what the new possiblilities were with the right technology in what one could do with a smartphone. Blackberry introduced a smartphone in 2012 by putting together a patchwork of licensed technologies. By this time Apple, Samsung and other competitors had captured significant market share, and the smartphone flopped. The successor Z10 also flopped in 2013. Nokia faced another problem- the inability to convert R&D, at times larger than Google and Apple, into new products, and the failure of management to grasp the potential of new technologies. According to a former employee, Nokia management turned down a internet ready phone with touch screen developed by its engineers in 2004....

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Microsoft has done poorly in anticipating and developing products for the internet and mobile devices. On the enterprise side the server and tools business has done well. Microsoft's Server And Tools business made operating profit of $8.2 billion in the year ending June 2013, up 13% from the prior year. Office 365 sold on a subscription basis to accomodate the shift to cloud computing, and other cloud products are expected to make up for decline in Windows revenues with decline in PC sales. Satya Nadella, who ran the Server and Tools business from 2011 till he was shifted to head the cloud computing effort in the reorganization of 2013, is a candidate for the CEO position.

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Eighth grades civics and history national test scores in the US hit new lows of 13% for history and 20% for civics meeting proficiency standards. The Test used was the National Assessment of Educational Progress. Reading scores are also low. About three decades of progress appear to be wiped out during the pandemic. A message for president Biden- the fight for the soul of America starts right here and this site Lyrarc.com has a knowledge role for this to happen.

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Ezra Klein of the NYT looks at proposed US, EU and Chinese regulatory framework for AI. He points out the problems with the EU- too specific, US- too broad, and China's - state oriented. Klein gives specific points that need to be considered carefully including setting up the regulatory agency like the FDA to strictly regulate AI systems and companies.