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Hillary Clinton narrowly loses the Michigan primary to Bernie Sanders in March 2016, as the Sanders campaign focusses on Clinton's support for trade agreements that hurt American workers and lead to loss of manufacturing jobs. About three fifths of voters in the Michigan primary considered this a major issue. Many less educated younger workers see their job prospects diminish and wages drop with free trade that hurts American manufacturing jobs. Bill Clinton signed the NAFTA agreement with Mexico, and as a member of the Obama administration Clinton supported the Trans Pacific Trade Agreement, later opposing TPP when she left the cabinet. Sentiment against trade that hurts manufacturing jobs in the U.S. is strongest in midwestern states such as Michigan, Ohio and Illinois. This was also a major issue benefitting the Liberals under Justin Trudeau who won in Canada's industrial Ontario province which has suffered hollowing out and loss of manufacturing jobs under the Conservative Harper administration. In the U.S. the issue goes back to the Clinton Administration for two decades. New jobs created by Apple, Google, and other tech companies pale in comparison with the industrial jobs created in another era that benefitted working class families. This issue and high unemployment or under employment, lower wages for working class families, was a major issue in the 2016 U.S. presidential election campaign. Widening wealth disparities, and lack of upward mobility, high tution and healthcare costs for ordinary families, dominated the campaign in the U.S....

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Renewed calls for higher capital reserves by banking regulators and Britain's Independent Banking Commission after $2 billion in losses at UBS. The losses were a result of derivatives trades made at UBS's London trading desk.

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China's president Hu Jintao responds to questions by the WSJ on relations with the U.S., the 2008 financial crisis, the 11th Five Year Plan period, China's currency Renminbi, the Korean peninsula, and China's new assertiveness in foreign affairs.

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U.S. Vice President Biden and Vice President Xi Jinping visited a high school in Dujianyan, in Sichuan province, China. Xi Jinping is expected to be the new President of China in 2013. This is the first time he has spent extensive time with a U.S. leader. Xi Jinping shared his experiences of meeting with ordinary citizens with Joe Biden. Xi's daughter is a student at Harvard University. He showed considerable interest in the political situation and debt ceiling negotiations in the U.S. Li Keqiang, who is close to Premier Wen Biao, is expected to become prime minister of China in 2013. Li gave a speech to students at the University of Hong Kong during the Biden visit with Jinping, and at one point talked to students in English.

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Inflation in China and rising wages are pushing up costs for American manufacturers. The pressure on China, most recently in Congress, is helping to push up the value of the yuan. This combined trend is making it attractive for some manufacturers to bring factories home to the U.S. A trend in the U.S. towards non-unionized labor and the new trend to a two-tier wage level- with lower wages for entry level workers- and the shedding of legacy health care costs, is creating a more cost competitive labor force in the U.S. This extends from older industries such as furniture and auto components to newer industries and technology. The new factories setup in the U.S. use technologies that require a smaller number of workers, in most cases less than half the number of workers that were employed earlier. This adds another element in cost efficiency, though it means fewer jobs are created with new plants.

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A study by Prof. Peter Petri of Brandeis University, shows the Trans Pacific Trade Agreement boosting economic output in the U.S. by about 0.4% by 2025 or $77 billion. Winners are biologic drugs which get long term patent protection, tech firms and software engineering services. Losers are the Detroit auto industry with higher auto parts imports, light manufacturing, and some heavy manufacturing sectors. Prof. Douglas Irwin of Dartmouth College and other experts say it is not clear how U.S. consumers and businesses will benefit. The import duties as a percentage of total imports are now at about 1.4%. Experts say about 4/5ths of the benefits of TPP for the U.S. are from opening up trade in services and new rules for investment and commerce. TPP includes Pacific countries Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Chile, Mexico, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, and Japan. Issues are environmental rules, worker protection and standards, agricultural imports in sensitive countries such as Canada and Japan, affordable drugs in poor countries....

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A Wall Street Journal/NBC poll conducted in September 2010 shows a big change in public opinion in the US towards outsourcing of production and on free trade agreements. Poll respondents were asked "Do you think free-trade agreements have helped or hurt the US?" The response in 1999 was close to 30% for those who said hurt and those saying helped. By 2005 the curves diverged seriously with more people saying that it hurt and fewer saying it helped. In 2010 this swing is sharp with about 50% saying it hurts the US and only about 10% saying it helps. When asked "Do you agree or disagree that outsourcing of production and manufacturing work to foreign countries is a reason the U.S. economy is struggling and more people are not being hired?" the response is overwhelmingly agreeing that this is bad for the U.S. job situation. The answers are the same across party affiliation, in fact higher for Republicans than Democrats 90% to 84%, higher by income level with 93% for those making over $75,000 agreeing and 86% for those making less than 75,000 agreeing, 93% of professionals and managers agree compared to 89% white collar and 83% blue collar agreeing. This shows all segments of society agree that that the manner in which free trade and outsourcing of production is taking place is not helping the U.S., and this time the highly educated segments are leading the way. Bill McInturff, the Republican pollster who helped do the survey points to the big change in the way well educated and upper income people perceive free trade agreements. In 1999 only 24% of this group making over $75,000 said free trade hurt the U.S., now 50% of this group says it hurts the US. This is sure to lead to big changes in U.S. trade and currency issues with China and other countries. ...

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French voters turned to parties outside the mainstream left Socialist Party and the right Republican Party for the first time in a run off presidential election. The National Front's Jean Le Pen made it to the runoff in 2002, then lost to Chirac of the Republican Party who won 78% of the vote. This time the Republican Party candidate Fillon had about 20%, the Socialist Party candidate Hamon won just 6% of the vote with the rest of the socialist vote going to a far left candidate Jean Luc Melenchon who had 19.6%. The winners were Emmanuel Macron, a former Economy minister under president Hollande of the socialist Party, getting about 24% and Marine Le Pen, the daughter of Jean Le Pen of the National Front, getting 21.5%. Compared to the U.S. the situation is slightly different in France because of the very high unemployment rate for young people- younger voters supported the National Front, and people especially in rural areas in the north, north east, and the south of the country around Nice and Marseille supported the National Front. Macron's movement En Marche, centrist party drawing support from centre right and centre left without clear ideology except to renew France and pro-EU, was strong in urban areas, among more educated people, especially in Paris and the area around Bordeaux and Toulouse in the south east of the country. Fillon did not do well in some traditional Republican Party areas including Nice, with inroads from Le Pen, who defined the party around anti-immigration, closed borders, and withdrawal from the European Union. ...

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NATO's new guiding document and security concept now includes China for the first time as a shared security challenge. In the past there were concerns about China yet Germany and France continued economic engagement with China as before. The clearly worded statement by Xi Jinping and Putin expressing strong disapproval of a world in which the US and the EU play a prominent leadership role, made just before Russia launched its attack on Ukraine, has changed the sentiment in Europe. It is now becoming clear to Germany that the world has changed.Under Merkel Germany expanded trade ties with Russia on energy and with China as a major trading partner. The first steps are now being taken to decouple the trading relationship with China and restructure Germany's trade away from China towards other parts of the world including India, Vietnam and other Asian countries. Mr Scholz pointed to this needed shift during the Trade Fair in Hannover. As part of this shift NATO now sees cooperation with Indo-Pacific partners Australia, Japan, and South Korea and India essential for meeting the challenge of Russia today and of China over the long term. The NATO document says about China that "its stated ambitions and coercive policies, challenge our interests, security and values." Here are some of the ways the world has changed today. There are new administrations and newly elected leaders in the US, Japan, South Korea, and Germany. The new administrations are led by leaders in Japan and South Korea that are keen on working hand in hand with the US to meet the challenge from China. In the US president Biden seems determined to build up America's strength to meet any challenges China can pose. In Germany the administration is run by the SPD socialists with the Greens and the Free Democrats coalition. The Greens led by Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock have taken a strong position to face up to Russia's invasion in Ukraine, and Mr. Scholz is following step by step and has distanced himself from old SPD and CDU policies of  Angela Merkel of close commercial ties with Russia and China.  Indian prime minster Modi was a close partner at the G7 conference in Munich, Germany. The leaders of Japan and South Korea attended the NATO summit in Madrid and met with president Biden as shown here.   ...

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Robert Kagan makes the case for continued leadership of the U.S as a champion of liberal democracy and free trade, as the view that it will just happen in a multipolar world of China, India, the U.S. and Europe, is not credible. The existing democracies- India, Brazil, Turkey, S. Africa, Australia -are weak and lack the experience to provide this leadership. India and China could easily end up in rivalry in a multipolar world. This has implications for today. The U.S. cannot provide this leadership as a services economy- it needs a strong manufacturing base to do this. Lessening inequality was a hallmark of the progress made in the 20th century, and especially the six decades since World War II when the U.S. clearly exercized this leadership. The progress to European unity was another hallmark of these six decades. A healthy Japan was also part of this.

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Krugman says the TPP is no big deal because most of the trade in that region is free, protectionism is way down. He cites a recent report on American import restraints by the International Trade Commission putting their total cost at 0.01% of GDP.

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China's new foreign policy team under the Jinping-Keqiang administration. Foreign minister Yang Jiechi, becomes state councilor, and senior official on the team. The new foreign minister Wang Yi, was China's ambassador to Japan 2004-2007. The new ambassador to the U.S. is Cui Tiankai, a diplomat who graduated from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in the U.S. Cui was ambassador to Japan 2007-2009. Managing the China-Japan and China-U.S. relationships is critical for China because China depends on U.S. and Japanese companies for investment and new technology, for continued economic progress. The relationship has been affected by the territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea. Germany as an advanced technology manufacturer and commodity exporters Australia, Canada, Argentina and Brazil depend on the Chinese market for exports, creating an interwoven economic dynamic that is likely to be the dominant factor in relations. This is also the perception of Li Keqiang who told a press conference in Beijing that the competition with the U.S. has been overemphasized, that he "does not believe conflicts between great powers are inevitable." Foreign affairs remains subordinate to domestic policy and priorities in China, as China tackles the problem of reorienting its economy to give an important place to the private sector and consumers. Itself not an easy task, as prime minister Keqiang pointed out at his first press conference: "Talking the talk is not as good as walking the walk." One of Keqiang's main allies in this effort is Robert Zoellick, former president of the World Bank, who helped put together with China's DRC, the report "China: 2030," outlining these priorities....

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U.S. Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell tells the Washington Post in an exclusive interview that the dynamics surrounding the Trans Pacific Agreement pushed by president Obama have changed. He sees little prospect of it passing Congress before president Obama leaves office, and says it will be up to the next president to take it up after Obama leaves office in Jan. 2017. McConnell said that there is a lot of pushback all over the place. The Republican frontrunners Trump and Cruz both oppose the TPP, and all Democratic candidates including Hillary Clinton oppose it. In addition tobacco interests in McConnell's home state of Kentucky and pharmaceutical interests backing Senator Orrin Hatch, the Republican Finance chairman also oppose aspects of the negotiated deal. Labor unions, the automobile industry, environmental groups, and public interest groups, have strongly opposed provisions of the TPP that hurt workers and the public interest from the beginning, making it a risky proposition for Congressmen coming up for reelection in 2016. The divergence between the Republican establishment and the presidential front runners Trump and Cruz also have diluted support in Congress on the Republican side, making it a no win proposition....

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A Peterson Institute of International Economics study on the TPP trade agreement shows it would reduce growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector by a fifth, according to this report in the NYT. Workers incomes and job losses in manufacturing are a key concern for voters and account for the surge in polls for Trump and Sanders in the U.S. presidential election of 2016. All four leading candidates Clinton, Sanders, Trump and Cruz oppose the TPP agreement. Congress will wait till after the election to decide. This is a big issue today because about 5 million jobs have been lost in 1977-2014, according to the Alliance for American Manufacturing. The Peterson study predicts job losses of 50,000 a year, yet another study by Tufts University predicts job losses of 450,000 a year. Another study by the Economic Policy Institute study shows other damaging effects such as labor's share of national income declining from the TPP.

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This commentary in the WSJ says it is essential that the U.S. get back manufacturing of all technological goods back to the U.S. or its allies. The dangers of depending on China or other countries not clearly allied with the U.S. is quite clear especially after the pandemic. The U.S. and European supply chains need to be completely remade, restructured, to avoid dependence on China or countries that are not allies. This is what supply chain renewal is about. Yet initiatives alone with hundreds of billions of dollars price tag re not the answer to the problem. What is needed are specific targeted actions such government direct assistance to key sectors to ensure U.S. technological advantages in worldwide competition. Giving a hole range of incentives and direct financial support to industries making everything from electronic and computer components to high tech parts that go to defense and civilian production.   The U.S educational component in this puzzle is university students in all high tech courses which should be kept for U.S. citizens or from key allied nations at American universities. The manufacturing base would mean securing incentives and aid to manufacturing industries, component by component, part by part, to secure American leadership and distinct advantage.  Job losses have to be reversed and industries relocated back to the U.S. And only in cases where it is advantageous to manufacture overseas to relocate in allied countries India, Japan or South Korea. U.S. labor has to be brought into the picture as a key participant in the national interest and given an important role. R& D efforts have to be developed component by component, technological part by part, and technology by technology, so that a systematic plan can be followed to secure American leadership for the rest of this century, is what experts including this one say is required today. ...

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Close to half of the respondents in the 2010 Annual Survey of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, say that they face regulators who show a preference for domestic companies. About 80% of respondents said their operations were profitable in 2010. In 1999, 58% of Shanghai members of the chamber said their profit margins were below worldwide levels. In 2010, 78% said their profit margins matched world levels. Just under half of the respondents said they feared a negative impact from China's effort to build "indigenous innovation" and encourage domestic champions in each industry. 63.1% of respondents say regulations are getting worse or staying the same. Chinese President Hu on a state visit to the US in January 2011 is presenting the idea of a level playing field for American companies.