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If there is no good succession in Medvedev's view the economic and social development of Russia will slow down significantly, for this reason the First Deputy Prime Minister under Putin puts a lot of significance on getting a good leader in place to continue the development progress of recent years. It is interesting that the thought process behind the remarks shows that the person has reflected a lot on these things, on leadership and good succession and its role in development, on a government and the importance of a good constitution and getting the best out of it, on studying the experience of other countries and being aware of their historical development, the role of a national leader, the constitution and everybody abiding by it, on corruption and its presence in latent and other forms and its different character in different societies. He talks about the importance of a Presidential system for Russia with strong presidential power, and the complete unsuitability of a parliamentary republic for Russia because it appears that the government could end up being weak with a many party coalition, especially in Russia at this time where there are many parties and factions each would be jockeying for power. Coalition governments would not accomplish much leading to stalled economic and social development. Manufacturing is very important to Russia, and adding a high portion of the value added to products is very important,  that Medvedev understands. It appears he has reflected on a lot of things that matter to Russia's development, and would make a different kind of President than Putin. He just might carry forward Russia's development for the next 8 years in a proper manner. From the standpoint of oil prices and availability of supplies, a good environment for cooperation in the energy sector between foreign companies and Russian companies, it appears that Medvedev would offer good leadership for the next 8 years in a Medvedev- Putin combination as President and Prime Minister, a Medvedev-Putin administration. This would also be true in the manufacturing sector in the expanding industries like automobiles and others. ...

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As many politicians and commentators deride programs by the government in the infrastructure area as " mere spending programs", Robert Frank, an economist at Cornell and NYU offers some much needed clarfication. High savings rates are not bad for the public, savings go into investment int he economy, and higher savings properly channelled can lead to higher productive investments that in turn generate a virtuous cycle of more investments. There is thus no conflict between private savings and economic growth. China's and India's higher savings rate leads to savings going into investments in the economy for higher economic growth. Only in sharp economic downturns does the paradox of thrift operate, here lower consumption leads to lower production and layoffs, and the economy goes into a tailspin as consumers hoard their cash and postpone purchases. There is an element of fear in that kind of downturn. So its aunique animal. With the government stepping in to provide investment, make up for jobs lost, and restoring confidence, the paradox of thrift does not operate. ANd its ok and desirable to have consumers save especially when they are so overstretched as they are today. A real world example is that much of the US credit card debt is at 20% interest rates or more. In just 5 years says Robert Frank each dollar invested in reducing debt would support more than $2.50 of additional consumption, in 10 years more than $6. Savings matter. The wastefulness of spending is not a given. It depends on where the government is spending. If there are productive investments like infrastructure that are waiting to be made, then with some due diligence and care the investments can be very efficient....

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This report in the Economist says that the days of double digit increases in the car market are a thing of the past. Future increases will be in the mid to high single digits, according to McKinsey consulting firm. China's economy is slowing and official estimates of GDP growth of 7% are described by experts as overstated, with real estimate of growth for the 1st quarter of 2015 by Citi, Conference Board and Capital Economics all below 5%, as reported in the WSJ. A sign of the change in the market is the need for higher use of incentives. The growth in the used car market offers buyers other alternatives. The new plants being added will increase production by 5.3 million light vehicles a year and come online in 2015 and 2016, this is in addition to the 22.8 million in sales in 2014. Average Chinese auto plants operate at 70% of capacity and the added volume will lower capacity utilization further. China's local automobile companies, with the exception of companies in joint ventures with foreign companies, have failed to gain customer loyalty. Many of these companies may be absorbed by foreign car makers or shut down as the industry consolidates. Foreign companies will find doing business less attractive as sales decline. ...

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Two divergent approaches to the coronavirus are shown in this report in the WSJ. One in Italy which relies on quarantine and lockdown and mandatory social distancing, and the other on keeping borders open and aggressively tracking down the infected using data and testing. In South Korea infections have stabilized at 8000, and in Italy the are rising at 15,000. The divergent approaches and the results vary with the people's history, culture and recent experience. The cultural difference in Asian societies with people willing to cooperate and work together with health authorites for the social stability and good of the country is different from the more individualistic nature of western societies. In addition Italy has a long period of foreign rule of Hapsburgs nd French that has created an attitude of working around authority, the tendency to being furbo which prime minister Conte referred to in a nationwide address.  South Korea and Taiwan also have experience with the SARS and MERS virus during which public health regulations were instituted and comprehensive databases setup that are now being used to combat the new health crisis by tracking down people with health needs. The precedents have taught people in South Korea and Taiwan of how serious this kind of crisis can become, which was absent in Italy in the early stages. Both South Korea and Italy are democracies. The difference being that one has experience with public health crises from experience with SARS, MERS, H1N1, and has developed policy tools, broadened public support and increased state powers in anticipation of such crises. In South Korea there were fines of $8300 for those not willing to be treated and the government aggressively tracked down people. Public support and awareness also helped in controlling the situation. Taiwan has done better than South Korea as covered in a separate article in the WSJ, and shown here, controlling the situation from the beginning including shutting down flights from China early because of its close proximity to China.  ...

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Revised auto fuel efficiency standards win the support of GM, Ford, Chrysler, Honda and Hyundai. These standards would lower the average fuel economy to 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025, a decline from the initial target of 56.2 mpg. The revised proposal calls for a 5% average annual increase in fuel economy for cars and a 3.5% increase for light trucks through 2021. After 2021 both cars and trucks have to meet a 5% annual increase. Useful innovation in the new standards is to provide credits for hybrid pickup trucks, and give credits for technological advances that improve fuel economy but don't show up in EPA tests such as the one that shuts of the engine when a car is idling. Other credits would be offered for solar roof panels on electric vehicles. It includes incentives for "promoting early market penetration of tailpipe CO2/fuel consumption reducing technologies." This comes after a long period in which the U.S. lagged behind other countries in fuel economy. It could be one of the main achievements of the Obama administration, and help build a new auto industry around new technologies....

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Questions about the whereabouts of Masataka Shimizu, president of Tokyo Electric Power Company, which owns the Fukushima nuclear plant. Shimizu was last seen in public appearances at a news conference on March 13, 2011. The chairman of the upper house of Japan's Diet, the parliament, calls this "inexcusable." The governor of Fukushima prefecture, Yuhei Sato, tells Japanese television that the people there cannot accept apologies, "because their anger and anxiety are extreme." Protestors walk past Tepco headquarters, chanting "No more Hiroshimas."Toko Kanoh, a former Tepco vice president, and for 12 years member of the Diet upper house, says Shimizu should talk to the public as soon as possible. This kind of disappearance is not uncommon in Japanese corporate circles. During the Toyota recall crisis, the chief of Toyota was also unavailable. Shimizu like other senior executives in the corporate elite is a lifer, having joined Tepco at 23, after graduating from Keio University. Because of the size and influence of Tepco, it produces one third of Japan's energy, he is also vice chairman of the Nippon Keidanren, the Japan Business Federation. Shimizu's role at Tepco was marked by an effort to restore profitability after the 2007 earthquake that damaged a nuclear plant. Shimizu decribed Tepco's core mission in the last annual report as "cost-cutting. He describes the need to construct "disaster resistant nuclear power stations," but at the same time in somewhat of a contradiction, says that the company had cut the cost of inspections not "by postponing them but by reducing their frequency." Just as Toyota went through a wrenching crisis after cost cutting and insulated corporate executive behaviour, which combined with technology and user behaviour put its safety reputation in risk, Tepco finds itself in severe shock. Tepco has lost two thirds of its value on the Tokyo stock exchange, and is looking for $25 billion in emergency loans. ...

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Alan Blinder, a professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton University, looks at explanations for low productivity growth since 2010, and points to the most likely reason- the lack of technological progress with the kind of impact that the personal computer and other innovations had in the period 1995-2005. Facebook, Google, Amazon and Apple tech innovation has more impact on consumers than on the industrial economy and production. Lower investment since 2010 with the financial crisis could have added to this, but to a smaller degree, says Blinder. Blinder even points to some hours of work being taken up by workers using Facebook, Twitter and other similiar services. The notion strange to Silicon Valley is supported that tech progress, dynamism and entrepreneurship may have actually declined to some extent. Intel's Andy Grove, no stranger to early innovations supported this notion around 2008, saying he saw less innovation of the type he was familiar with, more refinements than breakthroughs by startups in Silicon Valley. Grove was critical of the decline in manufacturing in the U.S., which is likely to have hurt productivity growth....

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Thomas Sargent of New York University and Christopher Sims win the Nobel Prize in Economics for 2011. Sargent, a professor at New York University, is best known for his work on "rational expectations theory, " which points out that people base their actions on their expectations about the impact of government policies in the future. The implications for today are that monetary policy by lowering rates cannnot permanently lower unemployment, as people will expect higher future inflation and insist on higher wages for labor and higher interest rates for capital. Sargent did most of the signifcant work on the theory of rational expectations at the University of Minnesota from 1971 to 1987. Sims work is in statistical relationships and use of vector autoregressions to study the economy. He taught at the University of Minnesota from 1974 to 1990.

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The US needs good manufacturing jobs for the jobs and income that it brings into communities, and also because of the tax revenues from the companies making products in America that provide the basis for local governments to provide good public services in healthcare, education, and transportation. To say comparitive advantage that helped first Japanese and now Chinese manufacturers is real and how society gains is to deny some basic facts that are self evident from observation that contradict textbook ideas in economics. Comparitive Advantage is a textbook economics concept that says countries are proficient in what they make best and should specialize in that product. But it is a static concept that exists only in textbooks. If Japan in 1960, China in 1980 and India in 2000 were each presented with this idea they would have turned down the idea of making steel and remained makers of lower end products such as footwear and textiles. If Japan in 1980, China in 2000, and India in 2020 were each presented with this idea they would have turned down the idea of making semiconductors and remained makers of lower end products such as steel. A senior vice president of US Steel in the late 1960's even told this writer a graduate student at Northwestern in Chicago- as the US can make steel better than India or China let us keep making it for you. He and much of the business faculty at Northwestern also could not understand in 1970 why Airbus was being setup to compete with Boeing who by the concept of comparitive advantage should have had the whole market to itself for commercial aircraft . By this kind of thinking Airbus would not exist today because it did not have the lowest cost or the manufacturing technologies Boeing had through its vast manufacturing operation. America would be still the only one making aircraft in 2023 if textbook concepts ruled the day. By indirect methods such as hidden preferential arrangements, provision of inputs such as land, capital and labor, tax relief, the costs can be represented in a way that shows it is cheaper to manufacture overseas. The lack of a level playing field is what president Biden is correcting by doing what first Japan, then South Korea, then China and now India are doing since the 1960's. By 1974 in four years after its founding in 1970 Airbus came up with its first model the A-300 using advanced technologies. America will regain its leadership in the cost and manufacturing of many products through Biden policy and the efforts of American companies by 2030, and do this in a transformative way that will benefit the world as a whole.  It is an enormous error to say the US does not need good manufacturing jobs, that local governments do not need the tax revenues from manufacturing plants to build services for communities where manufacturing workers live, and the US does not need the manufacturing experience curve that leads to reduced costs. It is this loss of the manufacturing experience curve that is the most vital aspect for understanding the need for the US government to compete effectively with the governments of Asian countries to keep manufacturing healthy and strong at home. Economics experts ignorant of how important this science and engineering principle is fail to grasp this. Related to this is the idea of a virtuous cycle in manufacturing- whoever braves the hard years of moving up the learning and experience curve gets rewarded because once that country has mastered that skill it gets better an better as the technology advances- making it harder and harder to prevent a new monopoly in manufacturing by the country (Japan, China or Taiwan) that had the highest costs and the least advantage ten or 20 years earlier but just persevered through it all with the government's help to gain cost competitiveness. This part does not make it into the economics textbooks which are mostly theory and much of it outdated by the time they are written. Observation is the best teacher and guide as it is in science, to guide policy and action. Obsessive attachment to theory that ignores observation becomes the enemy of progress. Comparitive advantage is one concept that needs to be retired even from the textbooks. Overseas manufacturing then is a piece of the overall picture that fits into what is good for the US. Macroeconomic principles determine microeconomic outcomes as opposed to microeconomic principles with companies out on their own being forced to compete without a level playing field, or handing out technology for special status in a recipient country as some do putting the US at a macroeconomic disadvantage. This is also healthy for the recipient country overseas, as recrimination with loss of manufacturing jobs in the US inevitably leads to the kind of recrimination that does not serve either country well as in the case of China today, and worse still can lead to conflict, even war. After the egregious situation of loss of manufacturing communities across the US leading to destabilizing the social fabric, it is hard to see such thinking prevail about the US not needing manufacturing as a vital part of its social fabric and industrial strength. China, it can be said, would have developed, and developed well over the past two decades without overconcentration of US and EU manufacturing in China. Without aggravating the problems of climate change and contamination of air, land and water, and destabilizing the social fabric in the US hurting workers and communities across the US, if macroeconomic policy was made to manage this process in the US government without it being left entirely to individual companies to decide. Instead China faces today a difficult situation through events such as destabilizing the social fabric in the US (the Trump tariffs), advanced economies in G-7 resistance to sharing of technologies, the damage to its environment from microeconomic locally determined policy at individual companies, and the global effects of climate change from climate unsustainable levels of growth since 2000.  ...

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Greece's New Democracy party and Mr. Mitsotakis wins about 41% of the vote in Greece's elections. Syriza come is second with 21% and Pasok left party at 12%. Mitsotakis has increased Greece's growth to twice the eurozone rate, and cut migrants by 90% in line with EU policy. New Democracy party gets 145 seats in a 300 member parliament. The first round was conducted under proportional representation, only 60% of voters cast their vote. Mitsotakis will go for another election by July because in a second round the winner gets additional seats and this could let it form its own government. It sees this as needed to maintain policies of economic growth that have led to GDP growth at twice the rate of the eurozone. A surveillance scandal appears not to have affected the election results as Greeks opted for stability and growth. Mitsokatis himself put it this way- "This is not the time for experiments that lead nowhere." Greece was almost out of the eurozone when Syriza conducted referendums on the debt repayment that led to a chaotic situation, and then moved in the opposite direction in callous implementation when the Eurozone held firm. Mitsotakis said Greece needs to achieve an investment grade rating to lower borrowing costs. Worldwide the policy of delivering on growth is key to success in elections in democracies and in countries that are catching up after the colonialist phase. This is true for delivery of infrastructure and public services such as water and electricity, modern rail in India. It is true also for winning enough public support in countries like China that run parliamentary representation under one party the CCP. Strict immigration controls since 2015 reflect a similar policy pursued recently by Italy. Migrants have dropped by 90%. This is popular among Greeks. Looking back Merkel made a serious error in letting in migrants coming in from Hungary and Austria at the beginning of the migration inflows into the EU in 2015. Merkel came from former East Germany, the communist led GDR, and had no understanding of how harmful this would be for the European Union. In just one year by 2016 the misguided open migration policies of Merkel had led to her CDU party getting less votes than an anti immigration AfD party in her home state of Meckenburg. It led to anti-immigration movements in Europe that were used by parties in a self-serving way including in Britain that led to exit of Britain from the EU. It also led to a decade of austerity and a lost decade for the European Union as it permanently sidelined parties to the left such as Social Democrats that unknowingly or unwittingly ended up with the blame for the public's discomfort with lack of borders and migrants upsetting borders. In balance the right way to tackle this was to build stronger economies that supported workers and families in the EU, that then invested significantly in developing countries of Africa and Asia to help them catch up with modernization. Another failure in policy was the Bush-Obama Merkel policies in failed states such as Iraq and Afghanistan. There it was fundamentally important not to get involved in any way that committed US or EU's precious resources.  ...

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Elected to the Politburo in 1980, Gorbachev became president of USSR in 1985. In the six year period to 1991 he launched a movement to free the USSR from the rigid constraints of communist party rule called Perestroika to improve productivity, freedoms and quality of life. He came from a peasant family with Ukrainian origins and was born in 1931 during the period of upheaval in Russia. The rapid removal of Soviet rule was something Russia was not able to adapt to in the early years with no experience in democratic process. By 2000 after drop in life expectancy and fall in the standard of living Mr. Putin emerged as president.  Russia's economy recovered under Putin's three terms till the miscalculations in the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, that were itself a result of a sense that Russia had lost something with the fall of the Soviet Union and the advancement of NATO and the European Union. Gorbachev's sense in his memoirs was that Russia would do best under democracy. Even in 2017 he wrote that Russia and its people were "ready for a real multiparty system, fair elections and a regular rotation of government." Yet he was too much of an optimist and not enough hands on to grasp that Russia was a large economy and safeguards had to be put in place for the rule of law to prevent lawless elements that could control companies, safeguards for the vulnerable sections of society such as pensioners and older people, and limited self government through elected assemblies and parliaments were needed for a decade before democracy to take roots. Gorbachev's knowledge of American and British democracies, constitutions and parliaments and their evolution over centuries was non existent, with little contact and education of this sort under the Czar or Soviets. The democracies in Germany and Japan were established with American power and extensive education, the Marshall Plan, and unlimited imports by the US from Japan to prevent economic catastrophes of the kind experienced by the Weimar Republic in Germany in the 1920's. No plan from western aid and assistance, limited self government of the people was introduced as training ground as in India. In India the British introduced limited self-government or Swaraj in the 1930's with elected assemblies in Indian states, in the pattern of Dominion states such as Canada and Australia. Mohandas Gandhi negotiated the rights of indentured Indians in South Africa in this arrangement and studied British law and constitutions. This led to the catastrophic failure of the rule of law in Russia after 1979, lawless elements emerging under Yeltsin  that controlled companies and the state, high unemployment, failure of the economy, and drop in life expectancy between 1979 and 2005. How this led to the Putin years and now led to the war in Ukraine is covered in more detail under the Lyrarc article on Gorbachev and how he is seen in Germany. ...

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Fiat under Sergio Marchionne has come a long way since he joined in June 2004, and has since executed a most remarkable recovery. At the time he joined in 2004, Fiat was only using 70% of its 2.5 million capacity. Now by 2010 Fiat expects to make 3.5 million vehicles. At the time debt was 4.4 billion euros and cash flow was draining at a rapid rate. The $2 billion from GM as part of their agreement, came in handy to make several new car models. But Marchionne had to start with a whole new team, and tear up the old ways of doing business and the old hierarchy and management. He put a group of younger managers in charge, and brought in a style that was open honest and straight talking, with plenty of direct communication. By 2007 on the back of the Punto and the Fiat 500 and the Bravo and other new models, Fiat had made a record profit of 3.2 billion euros while eliminationg its industrial debt. Its a new way of doing business in Italy. Marchionne had moved quickly and decisively in making changes at Fiat. He flattened out the structure, and gave a small number of younger people the freedom to take the initiative. He also put the former design chief of Pininfarina in charge, and brought all the designers together in Turin's Mirafiori complex in Oficina 83. He put design at the core of the manufacturing process, and cut time to build new models for the Bravo and Fiat 500 from design freeze to production to 18 months from 26, by relying entirely on computer simulations and not building any prototypes. He also gave designers freedom, and took risks when it came to styling to come up with really original and exceptional designing. He also continued developing Fiat's advantage in fuel efficiency of its engines, so that its engines have lower average emissions than any competitor. On the other hand Fiat has been slow to take advantage of the growth in emerging markets in India, China and Russia. Russia for instance will soon become the largest market in Europe, larger than Germany. Fiat shows that the right manager can and does make a difference between disaster and making a big success. Alitalia is now in the situation that Fiat was then, it isstruggling to find its future. With Chrysler's collapse in the US, and the efforts to revive Chrysler, these are lessons applicable in the US also. ...

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The White House announced it has the plan for regulatory reform outlined in a 85 page white paper. It provides the bbasic steps planned and the the reasons the administration chose to modernize the existing setup analogous to redesigning and making improvements based on the existing framework rather than building from the ground up. The five key steps are: 1) Increase the power of the Federal Reserve to provide strong and consistent supervision of the larges financial firms. 2) Getting Congress to authorize the government to dismatle large firms to avoid the kind of chaotic collapse that ocurred at Lehman and which worsened this crisis. 3) New rules for derivatives trading and securites built from mortgage loans. 4) Creating anew agency to protect consumers of mortgage, credit card, and other financial products. 5) the administration having a setup to increase coordination with other countries to prevent businesses from migrating to less regulated locations. Obama's comments to CNBC were " Speed is important. We weant to do it right. We want to do it carefully. But we don't want to tilt at windmills. We want to make sure that we're getting the best possible regulatory framework in place so that we're not repeating the mistakes of the past."...

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The weak dollar and lower unionized labor costs may make exports an attractive goal for US carmakers as the US market is shrinking. After years of shunning export markets US carmakers may finally be waking up to the potential in places like Brazil, China and India. GM is considering export of the Malibu to Brazil, and expects to send 25,000 Buick Enclaves to China because the Buick brand sells very well there. With the new UAW agreemets and lower unionized costs, the US carmakers backs to the wall and open to trying new things and not so America centric, and a cheaper dollar, exports may be one more way in which US carmakers can revive the automobile business in a declinig uS market. It is possible that after this recession the US market may have matured to the point where US sales levels may have peaked like that in Japan and Germany and exports and international markets are the only ways to growth. In this sense the transformation to making the so called Big 3 into global companies has begun in earnest in a true sense, and their company structures and the kind of people who work there will in future reflect this global nature of their business. The UAW is on board in this effort, new wages are at $14 per hour for new hires, and the UAW understands that exports mean additional jobs. In fact the Lordstown, Ohio plant is one location for another GM small car in the future which would be exported, this 42 year old plant once a target for closure could then become an example of renewal in a new kind of business model. Note that the US exported $50.66 billion in vehicles, half of it to Mexico and Canada. It imported $150 billion in vehicles. From now on the shift wold be to export to emerging markets....

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Rep. Dave Camp, House Ways and Means Committee chairman, representing northern Michigan, says every deduction in the tax code is there because of a reason, and powerful lobbies will oppose any changes. The best he can do is work himself out of this job as he will have to tackle the Democrats on entitlements, the business lobbies on tax loopholes, and other lobbies protecting their preferences in the tax code. He plans to achieve a simpler tax code with lowered rates of 25% for business and earners above six figures, and 10% for everyone else. The approach he is taking is to be revenue neutral when tackling tax reform, in the belief that the economic growth generated from a simpler tax code and lower rates would generate revenues of 18 to 19% of GDP, up from about 16% today. He says the economc cost of not getting this done to get the economy rolling again is so high that he is upbeat that both sides can come together after the election no matter who wins. He is also looking at a repatriation tax of 5% on profits kept by American companies overseas, which would boost revenues for business which could be reinvested in stead of sitting idle. Today the much steeper tax rate on repatriation makes businesses reluctant to bring it back....

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As the trade problems with the U.S. escalate in tit for tat tariffs, China looks back at its history for parallels. The period of the "unequal treaties" imposed by the Western powers on China in the period 1850-1900, the Korean War of the 1950's, and other analogies that come up to people. Yet China's planners and leaders are looking at another situation the Plaza Accord of 1985 in which the western nations pressured Japan into accepting a significantly higher exchange rate to reduce its trade surplus and the Japanese yen appreciated by 50%. Japan cut interest rates from 5% to 2.5%, and introduced huge fiscal stimulus, banks opened up to lend vigorously. The result was a boom by 1990's followed by a bust that led to another decade of lending to loss making firms called "zombie" businesses, that led to a stagnant economy. This has persisted for three decades. This China sees as an unacceptable situation when China has still not achieved developed economy status in terms of per capita incomes. It fears getting into a middle income trap as the economic growth slows and the aging population makes a recovery more difficult.  The difference with Japan in the 1985-1990 period is that Mr. Trump lacks the kind of five nation economic coordination that put pressure on Japan. Today there are differing views on China in Europe and the U.S. and different policies. Mr. Trump is known for his style of deal making and could settle early, as feared by some Republican leaders in Congress who see in China a challenge to America's technological dominance. There are no calls to appreciate China's currency. Only calls for China to change its state subsidies model and put in writing and through laws that change the way of doing business that does not require American companies to hand over advanced technology. This is also a concern for Japan and the European Union countries such as Germany, and is something all nations try to protect in global competition. Japan is still facing the consequences in creating a new competitor in high speed train technology after building the first high speed trains in China and transfer of the high speed train technology by Kawasaki. The Household Survey by the Federal Reserve showing the financial fragility of 40% of American families shown on this page today shows how this situation is likely to evolve as working class families in the U.S. support a trade stance that protects American jobs and technology. Job losses over three decades and a $891 billion trade deficit in 2018 are seen as unacceptable to the U.S. in 2019. A stronger U.S. dollar helped increase the U.S. trade deficit by 10% in 2018, nullifying some benefits of Mr. Trump's trade actions. Mr. Robert Lighthizer was a negotiator in the trade dispute with Japan in 1985, and runs the negotiations with China with support from president Trump. This alone has kept the Japanese situation in 1985 uppermost in the minds of China's leaders as they try to come up with a way to settle the trade dispute with Mr. Trump.     ...

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Problems facing the energy industry in India include lack of coal supplies to use all of the existing electricity generation plants. Lack of investment and modernization in the coal industry is holding back tapping of large coal reserves. India is expected to see a huge surge in energy demand in the next twenty years, with the International Energy Agency saying India will need $1.6 trillion in investment in power generation, transmission and distribution through 2035, and $550 million investment in coal, oil and gas sectors.

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India's Russian oil imports Indian OMC's (oil marketing companies) say Russian discount for oil was about $8.50 per barrel in FY24, and dropped to $3-5 in 2025 with at present in August 2025 it being $1. CLSA/Citic Securities research report uses an average of $4 per barrel to get the $2.5 billion gain for India per year in 2025. Note that Russian oil is of inferior quality and the CIF landing cost used by Indian companies is much higher because of long supply routes insurance costs compared to Saudi oil. India could shift to buying from Saudis and UAE in 2026, and reports suggest India is already making this shift as Jamnagar and other refineries in India shift to non Russian sources. India's gains from Russian oil imports estimated at $2.5 billion lower than the $10-25 billion figures says a CLSA/Citic Securities research report. In 2025 Indian oil imports are at present 36% or 1.8 million barrels a day from Russia of 5.4 mbd total oil imports. Saudis provide 14%, Iraq 20%, UAE 9%, USA 4%. One alternative for India would be to shift much of it's oil imports to the Saudis, UAE and US to shift to the situation before the Ukraine war and Russian discounts for it's large population.   ...

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Greece is estimated to lose $30 billion in uncollected taxes each year. In an effort to make the wealthy pay their fair share in deficit reduction and austerity measures the Greek government is going after tax havens in London of Greeks shifting money abroad. This includes important members of parliament including the president of the Greek parliament.

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A second term Trump-Vance will face uphill risks and a mess in economics from a Trumpian Republican party and Congress, says WSJ. WSJ Editorial Board says a second Trump term is not without risks. Tariffs cost 1.1% in annual growth in the Trump first term says WSJ, and it did have an impact on inflation. It would have had greater impact on inflation with the supply chain crisis of Biden's first term, had this supply chain crisis happened in Trump's first term. A second term Trump-Vance support tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese imports which would have a bigger effect on inflation and economic growth than of the first term. The key difference is that with tax cuts a basic rule for Republican policies Trump-Vance second term would not invest in infrastructure the way Mr. Biden has done and Biden will do so in a second term. As a result the economic growth is likely to be greater and inflation smaller under a Biden administration. Trillions of dollars in investment in the economy and infrastructure under Biden in a second term will be missing in a Trump-Vance tax cuts administration policy. And with it hundreds of thousand of jobs created each quarter will be missing in Trump-Vance second term. Add to this the level of clarity of stable economic policy under a Biden second term and contrast it with some of the chaos in economic policy of a Trump-Vance second term. The basic contradiction between tax cuts policy and the nation's need for infrastructure spending/rebuilding under a Republican under Trump administration will not go away, present a huge stumbling block. Chaotic policy could come from Project 2025 that says consider abolishing the US central bank Federal Reserve. This kind of erratic and unwise policy proposals are clearly not happening under Biden and Yellen. Another key difference is the cost to the economy of delays of several years in doing nothing for climate in Trump-Vance 2024-2028. Severe effects on climate if nothing is done could cause acceleration of climate negative costs which a future economy under Democrats would face, in reality the Nation would face. America's Business has taken a short term approach to climate change, when the time comes to pay the costs of short term thinking it assumes it is somebody else's problem- this happened with supply chain concentration in China the burden falling on the middle and lower classes, it would happen again with missing climate change action under Trump-Vance second term. ...

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A shakeout for manufacturers in the solar industry is developing in 2011-2012, as prices of solar components drop sharply. There is slowing growth for solar products in 2012. Seven solar power manufacturers have filed for bankruptcy or insolvency in 2011, including two German companies Solar Millenium and Solon SE, and Solyndra LLC of the U.S. Debt exceeds market capitalization for the 10 largest publicly traded solar companies. A major reason is the subsidies offered by governments in Europe, the U.S. and China, which resulted in a glut in manufacturing capacity and falling prices. Chinese banks encouraged by the Chinese government have given $43 billion in credit facilities to Chinese renewable energy companies, according to Bloomberg Energy Finance. Prices of solar panels at $1.60 per megawatt in 2010, dropped to 90 cents per megawatt in 2011. Another problem is slowing demand. In Europe banks are reducing funding. Installations doubled for solar energy in Germany in 2010, and dropped 29% in 2011, according to Jefferies. Germany is the largest market for solar energy in the world....

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Systemic risks from "too big to fail" and the pushback on capital reserve requirements that leave banks with lower reserves. Ewing describes the role of the president of the Swiss Central Bank, Mr Hildebrand, in setting rules for higher capital reserves for Swiss banks than that of other countries and the pushback from the banks resisting the new regulations. "He will never find another job in Switzerland," a Swiss newspaper Der Sonntag quoted one banker saying this about Mr. Hildebrand. Losses at Swiss bank UBS during the financial crisis and the $2 billion loss at a UBS trading desk in 2011 have created a new awareness of systemic risk at banks. During the financial crisis banks used an optimistic estimate of "risk weighted assets" which led to insufficient capital reserves in a crisis even as the banks were shown to be well capitalized. A sense that banks in Europe and the U.S. will continue to have insufficient capital reserves at 3-4% of assets under new rules and with the longer phase in times for the new Basel III regulations of reserves at 7% of assets to after 2016....

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Experts compare the performance of two states with thriving economies California and Texas, but run by governors who are different, one passionately liberal Democrat and the other passionately conservative Republican. The Texas economy is slowing following the drop in oil prices. The Dallas Fed has lowered the forecast for growth in Texas to 0.5%-1% from the 1.5% rate projection. This compares with a growth rate of 3.4% in 2014. During the economic downturn following the financial crisis of 2008, Texas was lucky to have laws that prevented the kind of housing bubble that happened in California. It also benefitted from high oil prices. California has recovered from the worst effects of the crisis with unemployment dropping from 12% in 2011 to 6.3% in 2015, and half million jobs added in the last 12 months. Many of the jobs are in the higher paying tech sector. Critics point to the weakness in education and lower paying jobs in Texas. Texas has diversified ite economy since the 1980's, with about 13% of the state's GDP from the oil and gas industry in 2015 compared to 19% in the earler period. ...

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June 21 is designated International Yoga Day by the United Nations. India celebrates International Yoga Day with 35,000 children and adults doing Yoga in central Delhi. Narendra Modi leads the effort to promote yoga for fitness and health. Yoga research centers are being established to improve health and treat diseases such as diabetes alongside modern medicine. Yoga day practice sessions of yoga were organized throughout India, with the participation of millions of people. Yoga Day activities in Paris, France, included a outdoor yoga session below the Eiffel Tower. In his address to the UN General Assembly on September 27, 2014, Narendra Modi said about yoga: "yoga is not about exercize, but to discover the oneness with oneself, the world and nature." It is part of a 5000 year old tradition from ancient India that promotes meditation, spiritual development and health. This ancient tradition is gradually being revived and is useful in India, China, the Middle East, the U.S. and other countries that see the spread of obesity, diabetes and other health problems. It helps improve spiritual concentration of mind, and increases the body's vital energies....