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Challenges facing McChrystal, his blunt assessment, who says his troops are in the situation of apowerful but stupid bull lunging after insurgents. More important to protect the Afghan population he says to his troops tna to kill insurgents. But do the people think this way or do they simply wnat to be left alone by both the Taliban and the American forces if they could speak their mind. See Intelilinks for ground reports including Kearns Goodwin.

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A poll done by the International Republican Institute, a nonprofit affiliated with the Republican party, of 3500 people across Pakistan found a couple of important things. The Republican Institute's goal is to promote democracy in the developing world. 1. Popularity of President Zardari at 9% and Nawas Sharif's at 55%. The US resumed contacts with Sharif, and Sharif is seen as able to bring the Islamic moderates to the American side. 2. Economic issues are what concerns Pakistanis most. Refugees are approaching the 1 million number according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. 3. 81% said the country was going in the wrong direction, Zardari was never elected and is incompetent and this could be the reason. But military is still unpopular, 77% want democratic rule, possibly with Sharif or some sort of combination of Sharif, lawyers movement, and Islamic moderates in charge. 4. From alow of 9% in January 2008, now 37% are willing to work with the USA against extremism. Could Obama's election and US support of Pakistan's effort to heal itself be apart of this change of heart? 5. 45% support fighting extremists in the tribal areas and the Northwest Frontier Province. And 69% say having the Taliban and Al Quaeda operate in Pakistan is a serious problem. If these poll results accurately reflect shifting feeling in Pakistan, American help to help Pakistan pull itself up by its bootstraps economically and unify the country under a democratic administration of Islamic moderates and people from other areas like the lawyers movement, could work. It also improves the prospects of pulling out of Afghanistan after the situation improves, and setting up an administration that comprises Islamic moderates and tribal representatives that keeps out Al Quaeda, and works to rebuild Afghanistan after seemingly endless years of war. These efforts would require cooperation of Iran, India, Pakistan and the US, and assistance of countries like Turkey, in creating an atmosphere that promotes peaceful development in the entire region. ...

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McChrystal as one of the five best generals in the army today according to one general who worked with him in Iraq, and the perfect man for th job. He was chief of staff for an army task force during operations to overthrow the Taliban in Afghnistan so his work with Afghanistan goes back many years. He is a field and hands on kind of guy, and at the same time has the intellect and listening ability to coordinate things with others, which may be badly needed here.

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The WSJ editorial says Gen McChrystal may bring the qualities of flexibility and imagination, and intellect, the way General Petraeus did to the war in Iraq. It says Defense Secretary Gates did well with President Obama to bring achange of leadership to the American effort to bring security to the Afghan people from the Taliban militants. It was the leisurely way the NATO effort proceeded under Gen. McKiernan in building the Afghan army- the only remaining institution that commands confidence in the country - that WSJ faults for having gone on too long. The other institutions like the corrupt police, and the failing government of Hamid Karzai, along with the spread of opium farming in the south have led to further deterioration in security.

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The decision to replace Gen. McKiernan with Gen. McChrystal and to have Lt. Gen David Rodriguez as his deputy, was made by Defense Secretary Gates and Jt Chiefs chairman Mullen, after thinking about this during the transition to the new Obama administration. The failing war effort in Afghanistan with the Karzai government controlling only pockets of Afghanistan and Kabul and leaving the countryside to the Taliban has alot to do with this. Gates feeling is "we can and must do better." That it took so long, with the Taliban only 50 miles from Islamabad, Pakistan, and the question of Paksitan's nuclear weapons falling into thier hands vexing the adminstration, shows that things slowed down with the transition and the economic crisis. The decision was not adifficult one considering that McKiernan had little to show for his efforts, and the rapidly deteriorating situation by all accounts. McKiernan was a senior officer who spent his entire military career commanding conventional forces, serving in the Balkans and the Iraq war in 2003, and has the wrong midset and background for counterinsurgency warfare. McChrystal has experiences suited to counterinsurgency warfare, having commanded commando teams that took out leading insurgents. He is also director of the Joint chiefs of staff, so known to Mullen for his abilities. Rodriguez commanded the 82nd Airborne Division in eastern Afghanistan, is seen as aleading expert in counterinsurgency warfare. He is also Gates's senior military advisor so known to Gates for his abilities. The new strategy is to go with counterinsurgency warfare to turn this thing around. This puts 2 commanders with this kind of experience in Kabul, and close communication with Gates and Mullen because they worked together before. With additional troops, and shift in resource acquisition at the Pentagon that Gates is trying to secure for this kind of warfare, this creates the kind of combination that could help the US in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and achieve more modest goals. See the links to Gates's and Petraeus's more modest goals....

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The government of Hamid Karzi released Mr Dastagir from jail 2 months ago even though he was aTaliban commander in an area near Turkmenistan. This fuels feeling among ordinary Afghan people that the corrupt or criminal can get themselves out of jail. In this case the tribal elders who advocated his release may themselves have faced threats from the Taliban and argued for his release. He was killed in a US pinpoint bombing raid.

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The Economist points to ways in which the effort in Afghanistan might see success. More troops on the ground to avoid civilian casualties from air attacks and bombings which can antagonizepeople and create more young militants exposed to religious extremist propaganda, huge investment in development, piecemeal arrangements with the local tribes and powerbrokers including the Taliban, help to Pakistan and concentrating its mind on the effort in its frontier areas so close to its capital Islamabad. At the same time building support inside Pakistan for a liberal state that remains Islamic but keeps religion out of the state, and builds alasting peace in South Asia without getting mired in conflicts like Kashmir which it calls "intractable disputes" that may be bypassed for an overall peace.

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David Brooks on the ground in Wardak province of Afghanistan, points to the efforts to restore the indigenous government and community structures that will be so important to restoring to Afghanistan what was lost in years of war, and which has left a vacuum in which the insurgents flourish.

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Only refugees from war zones are eligible for asylum in Germany. People coming from the Balkan countries looking for better job opportunities are being sent back home in September 2015.

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The protests for democracy continue in Syria in May 2011. On May 20 2011, 26 protesters are gunned down. The Assad government continues to crackdown on the protests. Friedman sees the events in Syria having wide reaching impact on the Middle East. He calls it a keystone nation because of relations with Iran, the Golan Heights, the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah, the long border with Turkey, the border with Iraq, and Hamas relations with Syria. Compared to Egypt the international community has been for the most part silent in its support for the democracy protests in Syria. Friedman also asks the question about rival sects in Syria and other Arab countries and what happens afterwards. Would a post Assad period lead to people from rival sects putting aside differences and working together to build and sustain a democratic government. He says there is uncertainty but also that something deep down is coming to the top in the Arab world- that Arabs want to be full citizens of their countries with a voice in their government and in the way things are run in their countries. ...

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Friedman reports from an election booth in the Shubra el-Khema neighborhood of Cairo during the Egypptian parliamentary elections in 2012. He says the realities are quite different as the poorly educated women who were voting described their day to day concerns to Friedman about security, education for the children and social services. The Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafist Al Nour party win most of the seats. Yet the democracy protests have empowered all parts of Egyptian society, and has created checks and balances in the process.

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Defense Secretary Gates does not see Russia as the threat it was in the Cold War, first because Russia's conventional forces are a "shadow" of what they were during the Cold War, and Russia has adverse demographic trends that will diminish Russia's ability in conventional forces. He sees the Georgian war in the context of Russia's seeking to exorcize, as he puts it, past humiliations. And Gates sees opportunities in the relationship with Russia. Such things as Russia's willingness to work with the US on Afghanistan. Evidence of this is Russia supporting the renwal of the UN resolution on Afghanistan. Another indication is that Russia he says is very worried about the drugs coming out of Afghanistan, and has been supportive to provide alternative routes for Europeans to get equipment and supplies into Afghanistan. These views come across in an interview on December 17, with Charlie Rose, a five time elected Congressman, for the PBS Charlie Rose show. They are also reflected in an article in Foreign Affairs journal's current issue. Gates was a CIA analyst and has some insightful observations. Gates told Charlie Rose that he does not see the Islamic radicals and violent Islamic extremists as a threat in the same way as the threat in the Cold War years. This threat is not as big as the threat to freedom during the Cold War. He says the failure in strategic communications was huge as agencies of the US government engaged in activities in other countries, like the Agency for International Development and the US Information Agency, were neglected starting in the in the 1990's. Communications in other countries of what the US represented and stands for was left to the Pentagon, a role the Pentagon was ill-suited for. He sees the Islamic terrorism as more of an ideological conflict. Speaking at a town hall meeting at the Balad Air Force base in Iraq, in December, Gates pointed to these communications failures as a real challenge for the new administration. But he now sees a huge opportunity in this past failure, and ways of addressing it creatively, in addition to commiting resources and people to this effort. Walter Pincus wrote this article, and its part of the fineprint analysis effort at the Washington Post in which speeches, reports, and other documents are examined by people like Pincus, to catch the really important things, uncovering the fine print that really makes the headlines. Another aspect of this fineprint effort is that there are a huge number of reports, and speeches and documents that had a tone reminiscent of the Cold War during the Georgia war and yet they do not correctly reflect the real situation about Russia, as Gates sees it from his analysis of what is actually happening. Gates has used Foreign Affairs, the Dec 17 Charlie Rose Show on PBS in which he was interviewed, and the speech at the Balad Air Force base in Iraq, to communicate his views and analysis. They are important to underline and emphasize precisely because they show that all that cold war hysteria reporting and speeches may be misleading and lead to improper conclusions and mistakes in policy, wasted effort, wasted resources, and lost lives. And just as the US strategic communications was starved of resources and effort, so also this necessary work to retrieve and give emphasis to the important things is neglected. One additional link to this is the speech, discussion, and QA session in Washington DC at the time of the G20 summit in which President Medvedev and the new administration's elder statesman and diplomat Marilyn Albright, former secretary of state, expressed their hopes and plans for a new era in Russian-American relations. ...

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Former U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates points out in this intervew with Holman Jenkins of the WSJ, that Iraq's prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, who worsened Shiite-Sunni relations, was the principal cause of the unraveling that happened in Iraq during the first term of U.S. president Obama. He says President Obama failed to do what was done by president Bush to persist and obtain Status of Forces Agreement with Iraq, to maintain a U.S. foce presence in Iraq. Presence of U.S. forces would have prevented the spread of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. U.S. force presence would have provided a more even handed treatment of Sunnis in the region, creating the conditions for peace by having Sunnis, Kurds and Shiites continue talks about the future of Iraq. Gates grew up in Kansas in the 1950's, attended the College of William and Mary for undergraduate studies, studied Russian and Soviet history in grad school at Indiana University and Georgetown University, before joining the CIA. Gates was selected by Brzezinski to work in the White House, worked under Brent Snowcroft, and as head of the CIA (1991-1993) during the elder Bush administration. He was Secretary of Defense from 2006-2011, under presidents George Bush and Barack Obama, succeeding Donald Rumsfeld. He was succeeded by Leon Panetta, Chuck Hagel, and Ashton Carter. ...

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A native of Turin, who was a debonair lawyer then retrained as a physiotherapist, is beloved as "Alberto" to the Afghan people. He runs the Red Cross Afghan Rehabilitation Center in Kabul, and is the most loved westerner in Afghanistan. Its a visible location, but in all these years of war it has never been attacked. In the tradition of the Red Cross founded in 1860 as a neutral entity, the Red Cross's orthopedic centers make no distinction by political affiliation and help combatants on all sides because only the name is asked, as well as civilians who have lost legs to landmines. About 90,000 people have received new limbs since 1988, and 70,000 revisit the centers each year for replacement or adjustment of their prostheses, which last an average of 2 to 3 years for adults and as little as 6 months for children. All the treatments, including overnight stays at the centers that can run for weeks, are free. About 10 million mines were strewn across the landscape in the Soviet invasion from 1979 to 1988. Because most of these mines have been cleared by the UN and charities like the Britain's Halo's Trust, patients now recieve help for congenital deformities, polio, tuberculosis, and accidents as well as other war injuries....

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The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq by one estimate have already cost 1 trillion dollars. By comparison World War II cost 4 trillion dollars in inflation adjusted dollars. The figures are from the Congressional Research Service, and show the pressures to control spending. The reason that civil society is not very disturbed even as these wars cost so much, is that so far these costs in 2008 for example were 1.2% of GDP, creating the danger that these wars can be carried out by a political leadership without the nation feeling the strains of the war. This may change with higher unemployment, and the feeling that not much is gained, that this money can be used in better ways to rebuild the US economy and infrastructure.

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A documentary that will be shown on HBO in fall 2016 was screened at the Tribeca Film Festival in April 2015. It shows the disagreements between Holbrooke, who negotiated the Bosnia accords that ended the war there, and president Obama.

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The Adventures of Amir Hamza is a story much like the Odyssey but set in the Persian, Central Asia Islamic world. It was born as far back as the 9th century. It has a South Asian version since the epic is retold in different settings and has a oral tradition of being recited by dastangos who used to recite these myths and legends . Amir Hamza is supposedly the uncle of the prophet Mohammed. Its South Asian version is in the Hamzanama that was commisssioned with painted manuscripts by the Mughal emperor Akbar. It has 1400 illustrations and formed the basis of Mughal art which was a fusion of the artistic worlds of Hindu India and Islamic Persia and Central Asia. In those times the Persian speaking world extended from Tabriz to Hyderabad in south of India and the Hamza Adventures were told around campfires and in the outdoors. The Hamzanama paintings commissioned by Akbar were shown at the Sackler Gallery around the time of the Iraq invasion in the summer of 2002 and show a world long forgotten. The Saudi type of Wahhabi Islam and religious zealotry is a far cry from this more open world of art and legend and life in central, south and western Asia, of commerce, trade and ways of life intermingled and flow of people across a large region in Asia. What it may suggest is that the current wave of religious zealotry is a kind of phase that like a passing wind comes and then is dispersed, maybe its a reaction to western interventions, maybe a failed response of tradition with modernization, maybe something else, a clinging to old outmoded patterns in areas that are most left behind by change, with ethnic and other strife mixed in with it. No single or simple response to it makes sense and a lot of patience is needed. Conflict of civilizations talk and the like may simply be overdone and way oversimplified things....

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How Petraeus won support in Congress and with public opinion, while at the same time changing the nature of the effort in Iraq. His struggles with General Fallon even though he reported directly to President Bush, who wished to disengage too quickly to make adifference in the failing effort to bring security. The first effort was to bring security with the surge in troops, then to build the Iraqi forces. To keep public opinion informed about tangible achievements of modest goals such as security for ordinary Iraqis, and fewer American casualties, rather than some beacon of democracy goal for the Middle East. A detailed account by the Washington Post of how this played out in the words of key players like Petraeus, Fallon, Ambassador Crocker and others, and what it may tell one about the lessons for another very different effort in a rural mountainous backward country like Afghanistan. One that emerges is to set modest goals like security, try new approaches but with a clear eye on the field, put in younger leaders who can bing flexibility and imagination and intellect, but disengage on favorable terms that achieves these modest objectives....

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The views being currently argued in meetings with the President about the war in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Vice President Biden's view: Completely change the goal and strategy. Scale down the military presence. Change the goal from protecting the people from the Taliban- and note that reports on the ground suggest that the people are indifferent and see the Americans and the Taliban as equally bad, with the Americans as foreigners far worse, see Doris Kearns others- to accelerated training of the Afghan forces to fight the Taliban. The focus of US interests would shift to Pakistan. Biden points to the disparity for every $1 spent in Pakistan $30 goes to Afghanistan, and the US real interests lie in Pakistan, not Afghanistan. The US would work with Pakistan to take out Al Quaeda in the border regions. And the proof is that this is working, as Al Quaeda figures have been taken out with Pakistan's help. Counterinsurgency would be replaced by counter terrorism so the US doesn't get bogged down in support of a failing government. The fraud in the recent elections and increasing isolation and loss of support for the Karzai government, supported by unofficial evidence from the ground, make this a serious option, especially as President Obama knows the Karzai government does not merit support and presents a losing proposition. The second view is that of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton- Ike Shelton of Missouri on the Armed Services Committee and Leslie Gelb (see links) share this view- who said in an interview on PBS, "Well Al Quaeda's no longer in Afghanistan. If Afghanistan were taken over by the Taliban, I can't tell you how fast Al Quaeda would be back in Afghanistan." The problem with this view is that the US has only a limited presence in a large mountainous country with the difficult terrain that Afghanistan has, and its not American ground troops that have done the damage in taking out Al Quaeda, its mostly high tech drones. WIth a wider engagement and expanded US ground troops in support of a failing government, that is alleged to have corrupt and narcoltics connections, the popular support would dwindle to the point that the extra troops would not be seen as protecting the population- because how do you protect a people who simply don't care or are suspicious of you? The solution requires some sort of settlement with the Taliban, which guarantees that it not serve as a haven for Al Quaeda. Progress with schools and modernization would have to be, at least in the short run, be given upon the basis of the U.S. coming to terms with what it can and cannot accomplish at an acceptable cost, and the idea of vital interests not lying in Afghanistan but Pakistan. The missing elements in this puzzle would help this strategy, bringing together key countries in South Asia, India and Pakistan, to assume greater joint responsibilities and abandon the entire postindependence. approach to relations. The third view is that presented by Bruce Reidel, who led the Obama administration's strategy review of Afghaistan and Pakistan earlier this year, and is based on pragmatic considerations and the unofficial information on the ground. Reidel puts it this way: "A counterinsurgency can only work if you have a credible and legitimate Afghan partner, and thats in doubt now." And he goes on to say "part of the reason you are seeing a hesitancy to jump deeper into the pool is that thay are looking to see if they can make lemonade out of the lemons we got from the Afghan election." For a complete change in policy and focus Obama would have to admit that he now has different information, and he is willing to admit to have misread the situation during the first 6 months and during the campaign. That is a test of leadership, being able to change after looking at the reality of the situation and digesting it fully. ...

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Frank Rich talks to Goldstein author of Lessons in Disaster on the Vietnam War and how John Kennedy refused to commit combat troops to Vietnam. He asks whether Obama can arrive at the right decision?

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A detailed account of how the American airstrikes in Farah province look from the ground. CIvilians who may not have much to do with the Taliban get caught in these strikes, and burned bodies of women, girls, children are to be found along with destroyed homes. It only creates new volunteers among the young for the Taliban and legitimizes anti-American feelings after bombings of this kind. Its also exactly as the Taliban intended it, as they hid among the civilians with this in mind. US soldiers outnumbered in difficult terrain and vast spaces call in airstrikes after ambushes and difficult fights. The US has to do some serious problem solving on this one, or risk losing the support of ordinary Afghans , and with it the war. These are some of the tough choices in this war, with what kind of air support to fight this war. One that is pinpoint and based on accurate intelligence and in skirmishes in the open, but avoiding the kind that gets close to civilian areas. And finding other ways to tackle the problems. Having popular support is critical, and providing security is critical, which calls for more feet on the ground, more aid workers on the ground, and more to show for these efforts in reduced casualties and better lives of the people in each area. ...