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Indifference on the Republican side, and a sense that not much is going to get done on the Democratic side, as President Obama pitches a $447 billion second stimulus plan in a speech to both houses of the U.S. Congress on September 8, 2011. Dana Milbank documents the attitudes and skepticism with which members of Congress received the proposals- a general sense that President Obama was too weak and ineffective to get things done and has lost credibility. John Taylor, senior economic advisor on the Republican side pointed out in a Wall Street Journal column a few days before the speech, that the jobs proposals Obama and economic advisor Alan Krueger were presenting were similiar to old plans that have not produced results. Taylor viewed them as placing too much reliance on government and not enough on the private sector to generate economic growth and jobs.

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Joshua Wong of the group Scholarism is 17 years old and just entering college. His arrest and detention of 40 hours for stepping into a government building area led to increased protests. In 2012 Wong was part of protests that led to the withdrawal of a "patriotic classes" plan for Hong Kong schools. Asked what Hong Kong would be like in 10 years, he says, "there will be universal suffrage." The age of the protesters is one remarkable aspect of these protests, as they are not just young, but very young. And this should give Beijing pause, as this is China's next generation. And what seemed right in your own day may not be right around the corner as time passes, as Mr. Jinping and his revolutionary veteran father experienced, struggled with, and overcame in their own lives because of the tolerance of others.

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Russian ambassador to Kabul Mr Kabulov talks about his experience in the Russian Afghan war when was the top KGB person in Kabul. He describes what he learned from the war, which he is telling Americans there and Nato forces leaders there. He makes a couple of important points. First, he says the Soviet record is largely unknown or unpresented, when it comes to helping modernize Afghan society in the cities like Kabul. This modernizing mission led to billions of rubles being spent on education, advancing the role of women, and building roads, dams and an industrial infrastructure. Of the mistakes Americans are making, he lists them one by one. "Because we deployed very easily into the major cities, we did'nt give much thought to what was happening in the countryside." He says there is an "irritative allergy" in the countryside, which is hard to control in a vast mountainous region, has historical basis which the British experienced, and is easy to stir up by sending large number of troops from European or Western powers. When these troops have to take retailatory steps such as destroying villages where insurgents are found along with the civilians there. That is why he thinks increasing American troop levels to double troop strength from current Nato levels of 65,000, can only stir up this"irritative allergy." The Soviets had 140,000 troops and this did not help. What he thinks would have beeen better was to let the Afghan army do the job, and for the Russians to say goodbye. America may be about to do just that, but in the meantime there may be an effort to create a respected Afghan government and army which inspires confidence and support in the meantime. What is clearly different here is that America is not fighting a proxy war with a superpower, and it is fighting awar for the soul of Pakistan now, so that at some point the wholehearted support of the people of Pakistan may be marshalled, especially if the Taliban alienate moderate Islamic Pakistanis and America can wean away Afghan Islamic moderates and get rural support from tribes and other sources....

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The US president DJT said today Feb. 13, 2025, as he introduced the new Health Secretary of the US-  "There's something wrong, and I think it's it's something that can be found out. In 2022, more than 40% of children had at least one chronic health condition, and today, nearly 80% of young adults do not qualify for military service in large part for health reasons. We're, ah, think of that 80%. Something is wrong and that's why immediately after Bobby is sworn in, I will be signing an Executive Order establishing the President's Commission To Make America Healthy Again. We have some great people on that commission chaired by our new secretary. This groundbreaking breaking commission will be charged with investigating what is causing The decades long increase in chronic illness, reporting its findings and delivering an action plan to the American people, and it's going to be a plan that people are really waiting to hear. Bobby, ah, I want to thank you. You've gone through a lot. It's taken great courage. You've been amazing actually. I'd call him and say, You're gonna be OK. And he said, I know, I really do. "Perhaps most importantly though, Bobby created a nationwide movement made up of millions and millions of mothers and fathers and young people and concerned citizens of every background who want to end this horrible chronic disease crisis that exists, exists in America. He's absolutely committed to getting dangerous chemicals out of our environment and out of our food supply and getting the American people the facts and the answers that we deserve after years in which our public health system has squandered the trust of our citizens, and they really have, they didn't, they don't trust us. They don't trust anybody, frankly they've gone through hell. There's no better person to lead our campaign of historic reforms and restore faith in American health care, and Bobby's going to do it. The United States spends more money in health than any other country on Earth, but we're growing sicker every year. We're not as healthy as countries that spend just a fraction of what we spend, so there's something wrong. He's going to figure it out. In recent decades we've seen staggering increases in cancer rates across all age demographics, including more than 40% increase in childhood cancer since 1975. Who can believe that? And an explosion in other chronic childhood illnesses not long ago, 1 in 10,000 people, children had autism. Now it's 1 in 36. Think of that 1 in 10,000, 1 in 10,000. Now it's 1 in 36. Who can believe that there's something wrong. There's something wrong, and I think it's it's something that can be found out. In 2022, more than 40% of children had at least one chronic health condition, and today, nearly 80% of young adults do not qualify for military service in large part for health reasons. We're, ah, think of that 80%. Something is wrong and that's why immediately after Bobby is sworn in, I will be signing an executive order establishing the president's commission to make America healthy again. We have some great people on that commission chaired by our new secretary. This groundbreaking breaking commission will be charged with investigating what is causing The decades long increase in chronic illness, reporting its findings and delivering an action plan to the American people, and it's going to be a plan that people are really waiting to hear. Bobby, ah, I want to thank you. You've gone through a lot. It's taken great courage. You've been amazing actually. I'd call him and say, You're gonna be OK. And he said, I know, I really do. He's really, ah, been supported amazingly by Cheryl and his family. And it was a very tough. It was a very nasty group of people that were after him, but he was tougher and he was smarter than they are, and that's why he's here today. There are very few people that could have withstood the, ah, the assault, but he was able to." ...

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A 5 month investigation by Adam Tolley KC into bullying claims from the British Civil Service led to his resignation. The bullying claims came from three departments- the Brexit Department, the Foreign Office, and the Ministry of Justice. Raab's contention was that he was not aware that it was bullying, that behaviour should count as bullying if he knew it was bullying. Tolley disagrees. He says it is the victim's experience that matters more than Raab's intention. Raab says he was faced with "cultural resistance" at the Ministry of Justice on developing a British Bill of Rights to replace the European Convention of Human Rights. Tolley stays out of this but does say there was "an adverse impact of the health" of civil servants and that their complaints were "acting in good faith in raising concerns that they genuinely held." It could be said that this is part of the role of the civil service to share their genuine thoughts on a matter pertaining that could lead to wise decisions or changes in decisions. The Guardian reports that the style of cutting people off because he did not want his time to be wasted, had the effect of being intimidating and abrasive. ...

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U.S. auto sales increase to levels seen before the recession in 2006- with 16.5 million units sold in 2014. Sales increased by 5.9% over 2013, according to Autodata. Fiat Chrysler NV sales reached 2 million units in 2014, for an astounding recovery under Marchionne, close to the 2.4 milllion units sold by Toyota and the 2.5 million units sold by Ford Motor.

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U.S. companies have decided to wait out the conflict in Libya till a clear picture emerges. Mufson gives a good account of the history of Libya's tumultuous relationships with western oil companies over 3 decades. Nason Saleri, former head of reservoir management at Saudi Aramco, now head of Houston based Quantum Reservoir Impact, says oil companies have decided not to get involved until the situation stabilizes. Oil companies such as ConocoPhillips attended a meeting of the U.S.-Libya Business Council where representatives of the Benghazi based coalition presented. Ali Tarhouni, leading economic policymaker for the Benghazi coalition says oil contracts will be honored. Saleri says western oil companies are preparing for the time when a new government takes charge in Libya after the end of the Ghadafi regime. His view is that once things settle down and a new government is in charge he sees the potential of enhancing the percentage of oil from known reservoirs. The reserves are there in Libya to stabilize production to earlier levels and to increase it says Saleri....

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A seven member panel formed by Toyota to look into Toyota's recall problems made its recommendations recently. The panel's report says Toyota was not good at responding to criticism from outside. Company executives looked at complaints about sudden acceleration defensively or skeptically, and viewed regulators in an "adversarial" manner. The NHTSA also has come under criticism in investigations, because to some extent Toyota's close connections with the NHTSA made it possible for the company to drags its feet in responding to complaints. Edmunds.com CEO, Jeremy Anwyl, says Toyota has a stable and predictable way of doing things and this does not work well in a crisis, leaving Toyota uniquely vulnerable to this. The insularity of executives in Japan because of the lack of non-Japanese on the Board. and in other important positions, magnifies the problems when they are rooted in a crosscultural environment. Such complaints in the U.S. media are viewed differently than in Japan. The report also pointed out that safety and quality are two different things - that processes that improve quality will not necessarily produce safe vehicles. By putting safety under quality and making everyone responsible for quality, no specific executives were assigned responsibility for safety. One of the lessons learned from the recall crisis is that specific responsibility needs to be assigned for safety, and the person in charge has to report directly to the President and top managers. One of the panel members, Brian O'Neil, a former president of the Insurance Institute for Highway Saferty, says the old adage is true in this case- when everyone is responsible, no one is responsible....

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The Public-Private Investment Program of the U.S. Treasury Department has not had a good start. With most banks passing the U.S.government's stress tests and raising $50 billion in the markets, PPIP which was intended to to help resolve the situation of all the toxic securites siting on the bank's books, has gone the way of all the prior efforts to solve this problem. Simply postponed this time hoping that the housing market recovers. With the Rogoff-Reinhardt study showing that it takes about 6 years or longer before housing recovers from such aserious crisis as this one, it would be 2012, before one sees an improvement. See the link to the Business Week analysis that shows housing markets in the USA having some aspect of normalcy in 2012. Yet even this analysis is using an optimistic scenario, because it assumes Moodys Economy.com estimates of economic growth for GDP of 4-5% in 2011- 2012. This assumes the consumer debt that has reached over 100% of GDP will be reversed quickly in 2010, and the the factory capacity utilization currently at 68% and expected to drop further in 2009- with more automobile manufacturing capacity remaining to be scrapped -will recover quickly in 2010-2011. This is unrealistic considering the combination of factors at work. Here Devin Leonard talks to PIMCO chief Bill Gross, who with Warren Buffett and PIMCO CEO Mohammed El-Erian, are key proponents of the PPIP program. Both El-Erian and Warren Buffett say they conceived independently of such a program, in which toxic securties are taken off bank's books with government help. As PIMCO is one of the largest traders of mortgage bonds in the country and has years of successful experience in dealing with mortgage bonds, the New York Fed under Geithner turned to PIMCO for advice in 2008. By this time PIMCO was under ownership of Allianz, a German insurer, which bought PIMCO for $3.3 billion in 2000, with $233 million and a $40 million retention bonus going to Bill Gross. Bill Gross describes how the program would function. PIMCO puts up $500 million, and Treasury matches this with $500 million. Analysts estimate that this partnership would be able to attract as much as $ 4 billion in low interest financing from Treasury and the Fed. Gross says that some of these securities pay as much as 14% interest, and even with a 70% default rate, this partnership could make $250 million a year on the $5 billion partnership, or a 5% return, with PIMCO making a 25% return on its original investment. This isn't exactly pro bono work as Buffett had originally suggested to Bill Gross in the midst of the crisis. But a more fundamental concern is that no one really knows exactly how much of toxic securties the banks have on their books, even though estimates have been made. If this is closer to $1 trillion, PIMCO's expertise and efforts will simply fall short of dealing with a problem of this size, and the window dressing of a problem of this magnitude could only hurt efforts for the eventual resolution of this problem. If housing does not recover as is expected till 2012 at the earliest, and the economy continues to deteriorate in unemployment and factory utilization, then the toxic securities on the bank's balance sheets may pose a bigger problem that will require serious action....

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Aghhanistan peace talks with the Taliban in Kyoto, Japan in June 2012.

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Brexit and Scotland's referendum both have similar consequences economically for Britain and Scotland. This hurts both countries in unwinding relationships built over many years, unwinding 44 year membership for Britain, and 310 year union for Scotland. Britain exports to EU are 45% of total exports, and for Scotland the number is 63% for exports to the rest of the UK.  Scots benefit about 1200 British pounds more for average citizen than a average citizen of UK, and pay 400 pounds less to the government. Scotland would start with a 90% debt to GDP ratio if it takes a proportionate share of UK government debt from the beginning of independence. Fidler correctly points out the economic risks to Britain and Scotland which are being ignored or not fully taken into account by politicians.

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The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration failed to take action when asked by drivers to investigate incidents of unintended acceleration. It also failed to take up action with the company's quality staff in Japan- who were in charge of things related to quality- after what appeared to be years of inaction and stalling by Toyota. Where it did investigate, the agency did nothing about the complaints when Toyota failed to provide the necessary information. Internal agency documents show that since 2003 the agency opened inquiries into possible Toyota problems, and six times closed them without action of any sort. With agency managers joining Toyota after their work at the agency, there appears to have been a cozy relationship with Toyota. Add to that the lack of a steady hand at the agency- with about 6 changes in directors since 2005- and the current administrator David Strickland only confirmed in December 2009. Throughout its 6 investigations NHTSA regulators were told they have to talk not with Toyota USA but Toyota people in Japan who made the decisions and had the answers, yet no effort was made to break the logjam and get Toyota Japanese managers to provide answers. At one point State Farm Insurance brought the incidents of accidents and near accidents to the attention of NHTSA, something that happened a decade before this in the Ford Explorer roll over accidents. On both occasions NHTSA was slow to act....

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The Spanish government said on May 23, 2012 that it will provide 9 billion euros to help Bankia cover capital provisions for bad loan losses. The government took control of Bankia in early May 2012. Bankia was formed by merging 7 troubled cajas savings banks. It has about 10% of Spain's loans and deposits. Bankia has the largest exposure of financial institutions in Spain to real estate loans. Of 37.52 billion euros in loans for real estate, about half or 17.85 billion euros are troubled loans. Spain's approach to the banking crisis from the real estate bubble was to merge failing banks with smaller amounts of government money as aid, and having the new entities raise cash through initial public offerings. For Bankia most of the nonperforming loans were separated and placed in BFA, the parent company. Bankia did an IPO in July 2011 raising 3 billion euros. Since the IPO Bankia has lost half the value in its share price for large losses to investors. Under new capital provisioning rules set by the government for banks to adequately cover nonperforming real estate loans, Bankia needs 7.1 billion euros. An additional 1.9 billion euros is needed for capital requirements for a total of 9 billion euros, which is the amount of the capital injection by the Spanish government. Finance minister Guindos told parliament that the rest of the Spanish banking system can withstand adverse scenarios....

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Peugeot plans to shut down its plant at Aulnay-sous-Bois near Paris in 2014. About 3000 jobs will be lost at the plant. In all Peugeot plans to cut 8500 jobs, about 8% of its workforce in France. Peugeot says the pace of losses is unsustainable, with Peugeot losing 200 million euros in cash each month, putting the entire enterprise in peril. This also raises more questions about France's competitiveness as 400,000 manufacturing jobs were lost in the last ten years according to government data. Peugeot is seeing declining sales because of slowing sales in southern Europe, a critical market for Peugeot. Overall capacity utilization for Peugeot dropped from 86% in 2011 to an average of 76% in the second half of 2012, with sharper declines in the small car segment on which the company has focussed. The Aulnay plant produced 300,000 cars 2007, by 2011 this came down to 135,000 cars. Peugeots strategy of making smaller economy style cars with higher French labor costs presents a challenge say analysts, and its slower move into Asian markets has not given it the advantage enjoyed by German manufacturer VW. In addition to the 3000 jobs lost at Aulnay, Peugeot plans to cut 1400 jobs at its Brittany plant in Rennes, and 3600 corporate jobs. To assure unions the company will build a new car at the Rennes plant in 2016, and could move 1500 jobs from Aulnay to another plant near Paris....

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Any Asian conflict involving China would in a few months destroy Apple's value, CEO's would change quickly, and Apple policies change to shift entire production to India and the US in a rapid shift. Tim Cook would be seen as having gambled against America's interests, unresponsive and failing after repeated warnings.  Apple's goal of sourcing from India by 2027 a mere 26% of its iphones, means that a decade after USTR Lighthizer and DJT started the task of reshoring manufacturing to US and allies in 2016, the No. 1 outshoring company would still be making 75% of its dollar value iphones in China. A degree of overconcentration that would make no sense considering that Apple's 75% of manufacturing would be entirely at risk in 2027 after repeated warnings and inaction. The only option for Tim Cook in 2025 is to come up with new goals of shifting a minimum of 50-60% of its dollar value product manufacturing for iphones to India by 2027. . Tim Cook as Apple CEO has done little to prevent the overconcentration of manufacturing in China since 2016. About 10 years after DJT was elected to bring manufacturing back to India or close allies the simple idea of diversification was not implemented. Why? Having set up this system starting in 1998, a system that did not exist before that tiem when Steve Jobs hired Tim Cook with a winning formula to Make in China, a country just emerging from its Communist phase of failed state economy. By 2008 in 10 years the infrastructure was built in a backward largely agricultural economy that was rapidly modernizing under a market economy with state run capitalism under the Communist Party experiment. The Bush Obama 16 years were ones with America not responding to the challenge posed by this new system which could create huge surges in production capacity with focus on key technologies and flood markets. The next decade after 1998-2008 was one of rapid growth of this experiment which combined with design and engineering in the US generated few jobs in manufacturng in the US, but huge profits with huge margins fro a low cost base with a high image and technology innovation product. Lighthizer, Navarro, Jamieson had already sounded the alarm for American manufacturing and loss of jobs in 2016.  America's deindustrialization was becoming a bigger challenge by 2020 so that president Biden continued the policy of reindustrializing. In 2025 China 2025 Plan that was a warning in 2016 is already a reality with China flooding the world in solar panels, and ready to flood the markets overseas with electric cars. Apple may only get a reprieve, this exemption is not the same as the last one. National security is an issue, key technologies need to be protected. There is only one more opportunity to rebuild American manufacturing and keep promises.     ...

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The Hudson River Museum with the river view view on autumn day. The exhibit- "Paintbox Leaves: Autumnal Inspiration from Cole to Wyeth." Grand vistas from a time when the American idea was alive, and the national energy was bringing new life to the wilderness.