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The last time the FBI involved itself in elections was with Edgar Hoover in the election between Harry Truman and Dewey for U.S. president in the 1948 election, when Hoover made clandestine efforts. One Georgetown scholar says it may be an unfair comparison for Comey, but it raises questions about his bringing up the email inquiry a week before the election. Other experts say it may be a sort of moral hubris of Comey that led him to this. An expert at New York University School of Law, Mr. Gillers, is cited by NYT. Gillers says the letter to Congress was a second or third mistake to cover up a previous mistake, that Comey should not have made repeated public statements, not the statement criticizing Hillary Clinton about the email practices, not writing a letter to Congress a week before the election. Michael Chertoff, a Republican who led the criminal division of the Justice Department under Bush, says Comey violated longstanding Justice Department rules and practices in July and this week, and provided fodder for all kinds of speculation.  ...

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After the National Rally party of Le Pen wins 30% of the vote to Macron's En Marche 15% in EU elections, showing the unpopularity of Macron, Macron responds by calling for snap elections. Macron is taking an aggressive approach to stop NR party as so far  parliamentary elections in France  have led to voters on the left and right veering to the centre to avoid giving the far right National Rally of Le Pen a win. National Assembly elections also require getting 50% of the vote under different rules than EU elections.  Politico points out that the situation is different today as the NR is more in the mainstream of politics. Macron's hope is that the NR would increase its seat numbers from 88 but not as much, and that other parties such as the Republicains and the Socialist parties, the parties that governed France since 1945 would also make gains. He could then appoint a prime minister not from En Marche his party but from the Republicains party of Nicholas Sarkozy, French president (2007-2012), which supports Macron.  ...

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The election of Claudia Sheinbaum of the Mexico Regeneration Party Morena with about 60% of the vote, a margin of 30% over the Opposiion parties Galvez, shows the strong support for current  president Lopez Obrador who is limited to one term of 6 years. Sheinbaum, a close associate of Obrador during his time as Mayor of Mexico City, and his successor as Mayor, was chosen to run by Obrador. Morena Party won 6 of 9 governor elections in states and 253 of 300 Congressional seats, practically sweeping the whole country except for Guanajuto. This shows that the Mexican people believe that Obrador had carried Mexico through the pandemic, through the difficulties in relations with the US and the negotiation of a new trade agreement with US and Canada, and set the country for steady growth by support for the economy and good governance. He has also helped build popular support by working to improve the standard of living of the poorer classes in Mexico. Obrador tackled corruption in Mexico to give Mexico good governance following decades of corruption. ...

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Japanese prime minister Kishida joins president Biden in deciding not to run again with low popularity ratings and cost of living concerns of the public. The LDP administration of prime minister Kishida put through a $100 billion investment package to revive the economy in November 2023. In the first quarter of 2024 the Japanese economy GDP growth suffered from a 0.7% decline. Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida of the LDP party popularity has remained at around 25% and Kishida has decided not to run again for prime minister. His term expires in 2025. A new LDP leader will be elected. This report says growing voices in the LDP party persuaded Kishida not to run and have a new leader. Inflation which was tame for over a decade has increased with surging prices for oil and gas after the Ukraine war. The situation is similar to the US and EU where rising prices have hurt ordinary people struggling to make a living. Kishida committed Japan to investing 2% of GDP on defense. The effects of economic developments is that the Japanese currency is weakening. ...

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Ann J. Selzer who does the polling for the local Iowan Des Moines Register for three decades says- “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming.” Yet the process does drive results. The only time Democrats did poorly in Iowa with reason was under Hillary Clinton, and it was clear that Obama did not have Tom Vilsack's back. Vilsack the three time popular governor of Iowa was Agriculture Secretary, yet Obama distracted by Silicon Valley did not give the support he needed. Joe Biden as president made Tom Vilsack one of, if not the most important part of his Domestic Agenda, underlining also to all that foreign policy would be driven by domestic agenda, and by domestic is meant in large part long neglected Rural America. Growing up as an adopted child in difficult childhood, Tom Vilack represented the best of Iowa and America in his public service in the state and the entire Great Prairie states that form the heartland of America's breadbasket, and for the world.   ...

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Vice president Harris is interviewed by Barnes and Jackson on their All the Smoke Productions You Tube Video channel. This will be broadcast on October 1, the day before the Walz-Vance debate. In it Harris recalls how in the 2006-2007 season she took the Bay Area Rapid transit to games at Oakland's Oracle Arena. “That was a very special time. I mean, it was electric. This is the thing I love about sports in general — but I’m going to say, ‘My Warriors, our Warriors’ — is that it was about bringing all kinds of people around the Bay Area — and the Bay Area’s a melting pot, right? — all coming in. And that team, you guys were the best of the best, legendary.” Harris says she admired the Warriors so much. That year the No.8 Warriors used the theme "We Believe" Warriors to win over the No. Seeded Dallas Mavericks. That year Harris was San Francisco's District Attorney.   ...

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Different versions of renewal America for the Senate seat in Pennsylvania, one from head of investment firm Bridgewater Associates Dave McCormick, with assets over $100 million, and Bob Casey Jr. representing working class voters and rural voters left behind in three decades of Reagan trickle down economics and lack of government support to industry, workers and farmers under prior administrations of Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump. Both president Joe Biden and Bob Casey are from Scranton, Pennsylvania, a iron and steel town from the 19th century, and Casey lives in Scranton, close to working class families of northeastern Pennsylvania, many of them of Irish descent from earlier immigration waves in American history. Bob Casey Jr is unique as he sees America coming back in steel. Harris thinks so as she said in Pittsburgh at Carnegie Mellon, steel is back, not just Chips and Science. Instead of outsourcing investment as the large hedge funds have done in China, and outsourcing jobs overseas, making right here in America and delivering as Biden is doing with one trillion dollars of investment.  ...

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It is not that this or that economic thinking is right, what is right is scientific observation of how "We the People" perform under different economic foundations and coming up with what works without ideology. This report writes about Pettis and Lighthizer, who have made observations and economic advice about reindustrialization through judicious use of tariffs. The difference between Biden/Harris/ Walz and Trump/Vance in 2024 is that Biden has already put in place a massive infrastructure and American manufacturing plan with government assistance to industry where nothing comparable except tariffs was done in the four years of the Trump administration. Biden/Harris plan to use tariffs selectively to promote reindustrialization while also giving other countries and competitors opportunities to compete- a win-win for the World Economy. The former president's blanket tariffs on all products without direct financial support to American manufacturing and consumers is thus not based on a combination of scientific observation and common sense as reindustrialization requires a calibrated common sense approach to the situation the US faces. ...

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AP/NORC poll March 2023 shows 7 out of 10 adults in the US feel that the US is spending too much on development assistance when the budget for USAID is $40 billion. In general Republican administrations prefer foreign aid to be adminstered by the State Department not a separate agency. USAID was setup during the Cold War with the Soviet Union by president John F. Kennedy in 1961. Today it adminsters programs for HIV/Aids and for pandemics, health programs that can be done through the State Department. Attitudes have shifted following the pandemic with 9 out of 10 Republicans opposed to foreign aid through USAID. Some of the criticism is that it funds bureaucrats favorite programs. The actual impact is now uncertain in the developing of an economy. For example Sri Lanka benefits more from aid and development assistance from neighbor India than from programs of USAID as it tackles the current economic crisis following the pandemic. India pulling together the aid through IMF for Sri Lanka, and the investment in energy from India is way more important than the small USAID programs.  ...

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Much of the growth in 2022-2024 was a result of Biden administration government spending on infrastructure supported by private sector spending. With efforts to cut waste and set new priorities in government spending, growth in 2025-2026 has to come from private sector spending with the DJT administration. The tariffs in the first 100 days are seen by business as a bargaining chip. Scott Bessent has described the tariffs as domestic policy, and president DJT has stated clearly that the tariffs against CMC countries, Canada, Mexico and China, is intended to stop the flow of fentanyl into the US. The scale of the fentanyl issue can be seen from the 490,000 American deaths over 12 years from fentanyl.  It is incumbent on CMC countries to take action on fentanyl. It is also incumbent on the CMC countries and on the EU, on opinion in business and the Silicon Valley in the US, to grasp the real dimensions of this crisis destroying so many lives, that is so unprecedented in the history of the US.   ...

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Emily Baumgaertner takes on the critics of children's vaccines. A major health advancement in tackling polio, measles, mumps, rubella, diphtheria. The NYT says most Americans and doctors today have forgotten what a scourge these disease were in the last century. Polio one of the most serous killing or paralyzing half a million people worldwide in the 1930's and 40's. A scourge deadly as it happened suddenly in a day one could get paralyzed. US president FDR had polio which changed his whole life in the 1920's. In 1952 vaccines took this down from 22,000 in 1952 to just one in 1993.  Measles - the vaccine licensed in 1963. It is highly contagious. Tens of thousands hospitalized 400-500 died each year. It is 97% effective with 2 doses, its spread require 95% coverage rate. 16 measles outbreaks in 2024- about 300,000 children not protected, parents skipping it. Diptheira respiratory disease- 100,000 cases a year in 1920 to less than one today. One in 10 died from it says CDC. Vaccine TDaP. ...

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RFK Jr wrote this op-ed on getting Americans to live healthier lives and eat healthier foods, cut the growth of food processing industries. RFK Jr says that his uncle John F. Kennedy was right in 1960 in writing that-  “The physical vigor of our citizens is one of America’s most precious resources.” The Presidential Fitness Test that President Obama ditched should be reinstated. In this Op-ed in the WSJ on September 5, 2024 RFK Jr. gives a Plan of Action to correct the errors in the way America has acted on the Nation's health that have cost the country its most precious resource. It means removing the influence of money on what is best for our health, and on taking decisive action in a whole range of areas. It means a new focus on healthy foods intake and vigorous exercise. ...

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US and UK complete a trade agreement, the first of its kind with major trading partners. US has a $11 billion surplus in $148 billion two way trade with UK which is just ahead of India and behind Vietnam in trade with the US. Vietnam has acted as aproxy for Chinese exports to US something the DJT administration is taking action to correct. UK first 100,000 cars exported to US will not face a 25% levy, and UK exports will only face the 10% levy on all countries, including on British aluminium and steel. This agreement happened Thursday May 8 after a night call from Trump to Starmer moving up the negotiations to get awin for the US and the UK, that will also act as a model for other countries to reach trade agreements with the US. India, Japan, South Korea, could be next followed by EU. It also opens up engagement with China on a trade agreement. UK's Starmer thanked president Trump. The agreement was a first and it boosts stock markets in the US, shows the US can do this. ...

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White House visitors database shows lobbyists have frequent access to the White House. On one January day, Jan. 17, 2012, lobbyists came with the CEO's of their companies to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue at 9 am for roundtable with President Obama. The CEO's are on the president's Jobs Concil. At 1 pm representatives from the meat industry arrive. And at 4 pm a lobbyist from Goldman Sachs comes for a meeting with Alan Krueger, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors. Its a fairly routine day.

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Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank appears before the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament. He said the ECB had resumed normal lending to Greece's four major banks after the 18 billion euro recapitalization of the Greek banks by the government of Greece using bailout funds assigned for this purpose. Draghi tod the parliament: "The ECB will continue lending to solvent banks. We will avoid bank runs on solvent banks." At the same time he asked the EU to setup a deposit insurance fund for European banks and regulation of banks at the European level. On the actions taken by European leaders Draghi had strong criticism for the slow response always one step behind action needed and a day late, saying: "The next step is for our leaders to clarify what is the vision for a certain number of years from now. The sooner this has been specified the better. Dispel this fog." He described the configuration for the eurozone of the last ten years as unsustainable unless steps are taken, with leaders having to decide quickly what kind of eurozone they want to see. On Bankia's recapitalization by the Spanish government, Draghi said everybody winds up doing the right thing after many delays at the highest possible cost and price. It showed the need for centralization of supervision at the Europe wide level because Spain took too long to tackle the bad real estate loans at Bankia....

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President Biden addressed the Nation from the Rose garden today November 7, 2024. His remarks were conciliatory. "You can't love your neighbor only when you agree."  "Something I hope we can do, no matter who you voted for, is see each other not as adversaries, but as fellow Americans. Bring down the temperature." It is a remarkable end to a remarkable presidency which history will judge as perhaps a single term in which more was done than in any other 4 year term of a presidency, except for FDR in 1932 and Lincoln in 1861, tackling a once in a century pandemic, and rebuilding the economy, manufacturing, and infrastructure. And even correcting missteps on immigration by getting the legislation to fix it. It is a tall order for anyone who succeeds Biden though in the current post election situation there will be the typical euphoria on one side and losing on the other.  During the Republican sweep by Herbert Hoover in 1928 Franklin Roosevelt was elected governor of New York and he used the intervening years to 1932 to prepare for the monumental task ahead by testing his plan for economic recovery using New York and a couple of states from Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Maine and New Hampshire, setting up the first unemployment insurance, shorter week, annual employment and other ideas to stabilize employment for one third of the US economy. Biden says he has asked his administration to work with Trump's team for the peaceful transition to a newly elected president. None of the fears about the transition came true with the new president getting a clear mandate to tackle the cost of living crisis for Americans. ...

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Bruce Reidel, Obama administration advisor on the war in Afghanistan, conducted a policy review in 2009. He says a policy of engagement he advised in 2009 now needs reshaping. He points to recent events that show the Pakistani ISI and the military who run Pakistan are in direct conflict with U.S. policy in the region. Especially after the attacks on the U.S. embassy in Kabul and the killing of a former Afghan president who was expected to lead peace talks. Reidel says this requires a reshaping of U.S. policy and a policy of containment which would reduce military assistance to Pakistan, and at the same time shape policies that would help the people of Pakistan, such as reducing tariffs on textiles.

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This report in WSJ looks at the Biden education, healthcare and climate change plan. It is part of the Families and Workers Plan put forward by president Biden for $3.6 trillion. This figure has now been lowered to $2 trillion and may drop crucial provisions for education such as the cost free community college which poses serious risks for working class families unable to afford community college, and skews education access even further to higher income families. It also lowers college attendance of American men, which is falling to alarming levels. The reason the plans are being whittled down is the 50-50 split between Democrats and Republicans in the Senate and the failure of Republicans and two Democrat senators Manchin of West Virginia, Sinema of Arizona to support community college access. Parts of the current bill support child care, access to affordable housing and in home care for elderly Americans. New elections for Senate and House of Representatives in 2022 would have to settle the issues related to financing assistance for families and workers as the Senate today is divided 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans. A separate Bipartisan Infrastructure package has the support of all in the US Congress to build bridges and roads, other infrastructure badly neglected by different administrations over the last 2 decades. ...

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Washington Post Analysis and reporting shows Russian economy is now sensitive to cuts in oil purchases by India. Russian economy with $213 billion a year in the war effort would suffer from higher inflation and interest rates higher than current 18% if India cuts Russian oil purchases of about $119 billion a year. A shift may be already taking place as India buys more from Saudis, UAE and Iraq. Studies by CLSA cited in the Economic Times show India gaining only about $1 to 3 billion by buying Russian oil. India has much more to gain by shifting away from Russian oil. Russian inflation is at 9% and the economic growth is about 0.4%.  A further increase in interest rates from 18% in a war time economy could kill the civilian economy say experts in Russia the Washington Post has talked to. About 17% of Russian refineries production is removed by Ukrainian strikes on refineries in Russia, leading to higher prices for oil. More crude oil is being exported instead of refined product as a result. This explains why the US under president DJT decided to take the difficult step to deter India from Russian oil purchases as it would not have been able to get China to reduce its $136 billion Russian oil purchjases each year the way it could for India. This was done to end the war even though it is little understood in India.  ...

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Gen. Dan Caine chairman Joint Chiefs video on Operation Midnight Hammer bombing of Iranian nuclear site at Fordow. Dan Caine traced the project for Fordow to 2009 when a small team was formed in the US Threat Reduction Agency inside the US War Department as the Fordow mountain site was being prepared- right from the outset of the beginnings of the Iranian efforts to bury weapons development deep inside a mountain. 15 years of work by the team leaders led to the US monitoring every aspect of work at Fordow for the day a US president decided it was time to remove that threat. DAn Caine showed in a video how the bombs actually work, not exploding like a conventional bomb but penetrating 2 shafts at the Fordow site and going down these shafts for 1000 feet before reaching the location where the nuclear centrifuges are located and the pressure inside doing most of the real damage during explosion at that point over thousand feet inside the mountain. The first 2 bombs removed the concrete caps put on the 2 shafts, subsequent 6 bombs each going through the shafts. This is the reason why the Guided Bomb Unit 57 which was made for this specific task mission at Fordow was effective. The CIA Director has stated he had a body of credible intelligence that the mission was effective and Iran nuclear program is severely damaged. ...

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Fisher and Taub of the NYT look at the populist politics in Europe and the U.S. following the French election first round. Trump won in the U.S. with the deep polarization of politics in the U.S.- leading to the Republican Party to decide to support him to avoid the result of four more years of an administration led by Democrats, and with the support of discontented voters in midwestern states with falling living standards. The situation in Europe is different as the mainstream parties have united in the past to block populist politicians with negative messages on immigration and an open economy. This happened in the Dutch election, by the co-opting of the nationalist message of populist politicians by mainstream parties and mainstream politicians, and is likely to continue in the French and German elections in 2017. Fisher and Taub point to another development that is happening- shifting the debate to ethnonationalism vs. open economies, which has happened with Brexit and the UK Independence Party. They cite the 2015 British elections in which UKIP won 13 percent of the vote, as having influenced prime minister Cameron to call for a referendum on Brexit, in a effort to revive the fortunes of the Conservative Party. In the end this resulted in the 52 percent vote supporting Brexit.  Another way of looking at the populist movement is that with Trump it called attention to trade and the way working class Americans were being marginalized especially in the industrial midwest. With this problem being addressed in a Trump administration and a reviving economy, the mainstream parties have an opportunity to reassert themselves. In Europe the AfD called attention to immigration issues, and the Merkel coalition government of CDU and SPD by making changes such as the deal with Turkey, and returning economic refugees, is able to assert the role of mainstream parties. In Britain the situation could be a result of a brash decision by a Conservative prime minister Cameron, in making a bad miscalculation, that has put Britain on a course that is likely not in its best interest. The Brexit referendum yes vote galvanized opinion by showing an endless stream of refugees in their advertising- a development following the opening of borders by Germany and Austria to address the plight of Syrian war refugees. That situation has passed and is unlikely to happen again as both the SPD and CDU parties in Germany have pointed out that this was a one time situation that they responded to following the exodus from Keleti rail station in Hungary under special circumstances. With this kind of perspective populist politics can be seen as reflecting other voices in a democracy, that are heard and responded to, yet keeping the sense of balance and openness necessary in today's global economy and societies. This is also the perception of Germany's outgoing popular president Gauck in his final address, pointing to the need to listen to other voices in a democracy, and the need for openness in a democracy, as well as democracies always in the process of Becoming and evolving to adapt to new situations in economy, society, and politics.     ...

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Republican Senators Corker and Blount are confident that a solution can be devised for the sticking points on a deal between the Republicans and the Democrats. The Republicans consider the savings in the Reid plan from the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq a "gimmick," but essentially the Reid and Boehner plans say analysts are similiar in the inital cuts in spending. The sticking point for Democrats is on the whole process of the debt ceiling extension having to be redone in early 2012. For Republicans the sticking point is in in tax increases which the Reid plan leaves out in the initial period for debt limit extension into 2013 when a new president takes office. House majority leader Boehner is facing opposition within his party and this restricts his leeway for striking a deal- the Boehner plan passed in the House by a vote of 218 to 210 on July 29, 2011, with 20 Republicans voting no. It was voted down in the Senate that same evening with a vote of 59 to 41, with 6 Republican senators joining all 53 Democratic senators. As it stands now, the weekend before the August 2 deadline, President Obama concedes that there is "rough agreement" about the size of the first round of spending cuts, and the "next step" to rein in borrowing. He went on to say that "if we need to put in place some kind of enforcement mechanism to hold us all accountable for making these reforms, I'll support that too, if it is done in a smart and balanced way." Its the design of this enforcement mechanism that is the main point in the remaining negotiation. The nature of the committee selected from both parties for the next phase of savings, its powers and the trigger in the sense of what it can ensure happening if no decisions are taken by both parties. ...

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How to build a global port network with less cash- China's state owned Cosco and it's European ports network is an example of savy buying during financial crises, and when companies in Europe and the US were keen to make sales of ports. China simply integrated it into a vast exports network, using containerized terminal expansion modernization to build its manufacturing for export model. This was an extension of its domestic network where it added new port infrastructure to newly built rail and road connections.  India today is learning from this example. By 2000 the Chinese global export model was entrenched. It was also the year when the junior Bush president extended the wars of Reagan/Bush in Iraq of the 1980's to Afghanistan. China had a clear road ahead to build state of the art infrastructure of ports, logistics and exports over the next 10-15 years without any defense costs.  Piraeus in Greece south of Athens, a port concession acquired in 2004 Antwerp in Belgium (Austrian Netherlands), a minority stake in a container port acquired in 2008. In 2013 with sale of Terminal Link ports in a 49% stake deal by CMA of France holding 51%, China has stakes in Zeerbrugge and Antwerp, Busan South Korea, and Le Havre, Montoir and Fos in France, Xiamen in China, Miami and Houston in US. Rotterdam, Netherlands- Cosco acquired in 20126 a 35% stake in Euromax Terminal in Rotterdam from Hong Kong's Hutchison's Holdings for $125 million. Valencia and Bilbao majority  51% stake for $270 million, when JP Morgan paid as much as $950 million to ACS of Spain for these ports after the 2009 crisis led to Spanish divestments. Today in TEU's shipping containers China sends goods to Europe 10 times what it takes in through Spanish ports. Hamburg-In May 2023 Germany's Scholz overruled Habeck to let sale of 24.9% of Hamburg port to COSCO go through ...