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The Hulme Company mail order catalog business in Minnesota may not be representative of small business, considering the errors and the scale of the debt taken on. But even if a small fraction of this debt taking tendency is representative of small business, it means that small business will not generate jobs as it did in the past. Small business will actually layoff people. And small business will not be able to provide the bounce the economy will need in years to come. The following is an an anaysis of this venture. The owners of this small business Bidwell and Ms. Guarino bought a luxury goods maker that was losing money for $600,000. Their business was to sell $500 garment bags and $1200 duffel bags. The experience of Bidwell was with Target, Tonka Toys and a cigarette distributor. Ms Guarino had a $130,000 job with a magazine publisher, running regional magazines like Minnesota Parent, which she quit. She had some experience as a handbag designer in California before that. They had never seen hard times, no, they had only seen good times. And were willing to spend heavily on the business like the $600,000 for a business, Hulme Company, that lost $150,000 on sales of $450,000 making duck hunting gear, the business they bought in 2003. All this for a tiny factory employing 3 seamstresses, and with no brand name for luxury goods like leather duffels. Their lender's experience- Kassim who founded Maple Bank in Champlin, Minnesota, considered it pretty typical of small business in those days to do everything on debt and loaned $550,000 over 5 years. So the lender was in for the ride. Another bank Stephens bank loaned on SBA approved loans which were later cut off. Guarino had no experience in this business, and simply relied on Bidwell's experience. The borrowing went on and on from friends, taking in debt with total lack of understanding of what debt means, from their daughter, the entire $50,000 savings of Bidwell's wife, and finally with banks refusing to lend after having friends put up their CD's and collateral on loans. Debt to equity ratio gets to 5 to 1. Second mortgages on the house getting Bidwell and extra $130,000. Even in the best year 2006 sales at $1.4 million, and earnings before taxes and other items at $325,000, not enough to pay the interest and other payments on loans that later totaled $2 million by year end 2007. $500,000 from friends and family including $20,000 from his daughter or two thirds of their savings. 600,000 catalogs went out in 2007. With the Hulme Company behind on payments in 2008, the catalogs mailed in 2008 dropped to 175,000. It is a very capital intensive business from the standpoint of catalog cost. $1 million in inventory at year end 2007, or two thirds of sales of $1.5 million in 2007, was a sign of how expansion preceded even getting the financing in place, and going out into the dark thinking sales wil materialize. So even in the best year 2006 the business was not viable, and would have collapsed even without the financial and credit conditions of 2008, ruining the owners in the process. By 2008 it led to the usual things in this kind of business failure, Bidwell's divorce, loss of his home as he falls behind on mortgage payments, Guarino's loss of job and friends whom she borrowed from, and both deeply in debt. Evaluation of the failure is as follows. Seamstresses and the small factory space could be obtained for a fraction of the cost in an emerging market country, even in an eastern European country, and no cost needed to be incurred for the purchase of Hulme Company or for sending out catalogs. Only travel expenses to meet high end retailers who might carry this merchandise, and go to the country where the plant was setup. Sales would come first, and expansion to meet sales very carefully done so that the plant could be downscaled if sales dropped. Even then scores of small luxury goods makers in China or other emerging market countries could put the owners out of business. The lesson if you can't watch costs, if you don't understand what debt means, then you don't pass the most basic of tests. You cannot run business on savings, home equity or credit card loans, or business loans with personal guarantees. Costs tend to just run up to the money one has artificially created. It will ruin you. If you don't have experience with the business and the product area, or can't put together a group of people with the experience to guide you on the pitfalls and what to watch for, you don't pass the next basic test. Only then does one get to the other tests about whether there is a market, the price and value of the offering and so on. This is before the current economic crisis. Now all these tests become more important than ever, or it will kill you and quickly. One has to be paranoid and very careful after 2008. Stephens Bank loaned money on SBA loans ...

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Two weeks after his election Donald Trump says the U.S. will not join the Trans Pacific Trade Agreement during his term in office. Barack Obama took seven years to negotiate the trade agreement which was opposed by trade unions, the auto industry and was unpopular in the midwestern U.S. because of the impact of trade in hollowing out the manufacturing sector. Here Frank Sieren of the DW.com points out that the agreement was not really about trade, as most of the gains of trade had already been realized according to experts. It was part of the "pivot to Asia" to maintain American dominance in the region, says Sieren. After China pulled together some Asian and European countries into its trade agreement, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the U.S. pushed for TPP as a counterweight to the China sponsored trade zone. China says it will try to integrate the countries in TPP into the trade zone it has sponsored. President Trump has said that the U.S. is better off negotiating agreements with each country and not getting into multilateral trade agreements. He fought the election campaign on the basis of the opposition to TPP and trade agreements that unfairly hurt American workers. This could have provided the 110,000 margin of victory in the states suffering from the hollowing out in manufacturing such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania. A similar hollowing out in Ontario favored Justin Trudeau's Liberals against the Conservatives in Canada's election. ...

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VW's sales in the U.S. doubled between 2009 and 2012, and VW set aggressive goals for the U.S. market to reach 800,000 by 2018. The goal was a stretch goal because this was double the level of 438,000 vehicles in 2012. This was part of its Mach 18 plan to pass GM and Toyota in global sales by 2018. Now this goal appears less achievable, because of new models from Honda and Ford which surpass VW's Jetta and Passat in technology, features and fuel efficiency. The U.S. market sales have increased by 9.6% in 2013, VW's sales declined by 1.3% so far through August in 2013, at 282, 913 vehicles. Ramping up production at the new Chattanooga plant will have to be put off and 500 contract workers have been given leave from the assembly line. By contrast Toyota sales for the 8 month period 2013 increased by 7% and 8.6%. In August Toyota's were up 23%, Honda's 27%, and VW down 1.6%. VW executives have said the company needs sales of 400,000 to make the U.S. manufacturing operations profitable. VW made a strategic decision to cut costs and bring the Passat price more in line with competition from similiar cars from Japanese carmakers. But this was done not relying solely on productivity and other improvements, but used cost cutting using cheaper materials. VW even went one step further by taking away the European suspension which delivered a more precise ride, and installed a lower cost suspension on the Jetta and Passat. Customers have noticed with some buying older models with the European suspension. Honda and Toyota moved in the other direction in the last 2 years coming out with more advanced features on the Accord and Camry. Ford did this with the Fusion. The new Accord has a backup camera, iPod connection, power seats and alloy wheels as standard. As a result Passat sales were up only 3% through Aug 2013, and Accord sales increased by 17%, Ford Fusion sales up 13%. VW's response is to ramp up discounts. It is also coming up with a new engine, Jetta compact with a sportier ride will be introduced, and a redesigned Golf hatchback for 2014. The slowdown in sales at VW shows how competitive the car market has become with Korean, German, Japanese and American carmakers quick to make inroads in turn with weak points of the competition. Strategic missteps can be costly for any manufacturer and the customer can never be taken for granted....

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As Japanese sales in the USA drop from 4.35 million vehicles in 2007 to 4 million in 2008 and an estimated 3.67 million in 2009 according to CSM Worldwide, even the Prius and the Honda Civic are afected. The Mississipi Blue Springs plant originally designed for the Higlander SUV , then assigned the task of making Prius after the shift to smaller cars, now will not make the Prius. The plant investment will stop at $300 million, with the plant construction being completed but the equipment not being installed, and no plans to manufacture cars there till things improve and the plant is made fully operational. At the same time it is noteworthy that employees Toyota has hired at the plant will keep their jobs. Toyota has not laid off permanent staffers at its plants in North America or any other region despite slowing sales in its worldwide markets. What does this mean? The culture of the United Autoworkers Union developed through the prewar confrontations between the union and the auto companies, and union workers and union officials and company managers came to a consensus through these struggles with the coexistence of high executive compensation and union medical benefits and other benefits and job security. But its not really been a frutiful arrangement as it has constantly been whittled away and eroded to the point of going out of existence even as the union clung on to the old ideas and management just went on with the status quo. Jobs security is nonexistent and jobs constantly cut as plants close, and now high executive compensation will face government oversight with the auto loans. See the link to Business Week which states that the numbers show the auto workersin Detroit union plants pay about 5% of their medical costs as opposed to 30% for workers who have healtcare coverage in the USA. But what good is the additional benefit in an environment where plants are constantly closing and jobs being cut. Is'nt aworker at a Toyota plant with no job cuts but costlier medical benefits better off than his Detroit counterpart? Which is to say with forward looking management that lowered executive compensation and unions that discarded an entitlement attitude and proactively matched its medical benefits to levels to nonuninized Japanese plants, and management that proactively shifted to higher fuel efficency and smaller cars in the interest of energy conservation and good strategy to be level with companes like Honda ad Toyota in that performance measure, wouldn't that have led to fewer plant closures and jobs, and public support across the country including in dealer showrooms?...

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CEO Ryan at CVS/Caremark. An unassuming man with a sharp focus on things, joined CVS right out of pharmacy school at University of Rhode Island. At 29, CVS owner Stan Goldstein gave him the chance to run pharmacy operations for CVS, then a regional drugstore chain in the eastern USA. Over the years CVS has made a number of successful acquisitions, the latest being the acquisition of Longs Drug store chain on the west coast, and it is now one of the largest chains in the USA. It has nearly 7000 stores and more than 50 million users of its CVS loyalty card in the US. As the pharmaceutical business evolved pharmacy benefit management (PBM's) companies like Caremark, Medco, and Express Scripts, came into being to manage burgeoning prescription costs. PBM's work with companies to save money, by filling recurring prescriptionsin 90 day quantities through the mail at reduced per pill cost. Now drug store chains instead of competing with PBM's are either creating or acquiring these larger PBM's. THe result is that a company like CVS which acquired PBM Caremark in 2007 for $27 billion, now has extensive computerized databases with patients information and drug usage histories. Ryan's clear focus is on these IT records as a distinct advantage, if he can use it to help the Obama administration's efforts to control health costs of chronic diseases like diabetes and arthritis, and back or neck pain, high blood pressure, and others, that end up clogging the hospital system and raising health care costs. By using these IT records to flag when a patient is not compliant or taking his medications and call the patient, Ryan can increase drug sales, get more visits into drugstores if the drugs can also be picked up at CVS stores, and increase sales through ancillary purchases during visits. This is now his strategy. It also includes setting up more clinics at stores and at corporate locations that divert the patient flow for small care like sore throats, flu and the like. As this is the way health care costs can be controlled, Ryan sees himself as helping achieve national goals while keeping CVS in the sales and profit picture for the US, even as health care as we know it goes through a complete transformation that removes the waste and unnecessary cost, and improves effectiveness and health. He sees CVS/Caremark right where it wants to be with its large patient drug database from about 1 billion prescriptions it fills each year, and as the largest single buyer and dispenser of prescription drugs in the country. ...

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New GI Bill taking effect August 2009, has not received much attention but it will help bring more equity into the system and provide better opportunities for university education to those who serve in the armed forces and thus help increase mobility in the USA, with those previously unable to afford an education or restricted to small community colleges able to take advantage of the best opportunties they can work hard for and use their potential and abilities. It makes for a more educated and effective military as young people with high school diplomas are more likely to take advantage of military service for 3 years to get a good university education. So its quite probable that more people and better and more intelligent and able recruits would join the military service at the same time that some of the military recruits who have already served three years go to colleges to take advantage of the new GI Bill. It costs the military $5.7 billion in incentives and other recruitment costs to meet the demand for service personnel over the next 5 years, but this can now be used towards the cost of the GI Bill. Also there is some fairness and equity in the idea of the GI Bill, and something that would appeal to candidates like Obama who believes that the income gaps in the country and the educational gaps in the country between the affluent and the those struggling at the lower end of the class structure has widened considerably in the last two decades. See Obama's interview with the WSJ on June 17, 2008, during his visit to Flint, Michigan, for an economic theme speech. Previously the educational assistance went upto only $39,000 and could not be passed onto a spouse or child, something that candidate MCain added to the bill. It also includes a monthly stipend for living expenses in addition to the tution, so its fair and generous program for GI's, and may bring some of the benefits in bringing mobility between the classes and new infusion of energy through a more equitable system for young people who may otherwise be left out of opportunities for a better education and better job opportunities even after risking their lives for service. Getting in the brighter more motivated for education people who otherwise might not opt for the military who then pursue higher education will help the miltary improve quality of personnel and help bring more dynamism into society with their energy and enthusuasm and hard work and discipline....

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Schools, shops, restaurants, cafes and offices are reopening and people are getting back to work and outdoors. What are the ways to reduce chances of getting the coronavirus and what is the latest advice from public health experts.  More attention is now being given by CDC and other experts to the aerosols, the smaller particles that are airborne that can spread the virus to people unawares in breathing, talking and singing activities. larger droplets come down to the ground, smaller droplets can be airborne for hours. This makes masks wearing very important, call it essential protection. Air filtration and proper ventilation is also important. What about social distancing? Experts now say 6 feet is good, 10 feet is better. This is from Joseph Allen director of the Healthy Buildings program at Harvard School of Public Health. No magic number but 6-10 feet or more is good for safety. Can one start expanding one's social circle? The fewer contacts the better says Dr. Allen. You can he says expand the circle but this depends a lot on how serious the other family is in taking precautions. Are elevators risky? If one can one should take stairs but do not board a crowded elevator unless the lobby is more crowded. Do not touch buttons, if you do use elbow or use sanitizer from your shirt pocket after pressing. This is where mask is essential. Here a tip is useful. Talking does not help as talking emits 10 times the particles than when you are quiet and this is true for small spaces such as elevators. Continual talk is not a good idea such as a long time spent talking, here watch that habit of getting into long conversations face to face.  Is it good to take a summer vacation. Here the answer is yes, as no one really knows how the winter will be. And remember outdoors is good for renewal of health, and one can look for places that are not crowded where the 10-12 feet or more can be easily done. One tip here is to take your own food and supplies from home so there is no need to go to crowded restaurants. Swimming in a lake or ocean is fine. Camping outdoors is fine and actually a good idea if you are with your own family. Try to use an empty restroom and one that is clean and wear the mask. While camping keep the 6-10 foot rule with people outside your immediate family, do not share food and drinks and try not to touch each other's supplies, and sanitize your hands or wash if you do. When hiking keep the mask in your pocket so you can wear it when you see others passing on trails. In hotels skip the cleaning service, in a rented property ask the owner to keep the windows open before you arrive, and put a day or two between your coming and the last person who rented the place. Renting a car is tricky allow a couple of hours to elapse between you and the last rental, open windows. Public restrooms. Always wear a mask many are poorly ventilated. Open the door without use of hands if possible,or use a paper towel to open and discard. Do not use air dryers. Is it safe for your house cleaning person to return. Keep the windows open to let in fresh air. Make sure your cleaner wears gloves. And all should wear masks. How to visit grandparents? Experts advise keeping visits outside and wearing masks when not 6-10 feet apart. Anyone not feeling healthy should avoid the visit. And bathrooms should be sanitized after people leave even wait a day if there is another bathroom. Experts advise against sharing food and buffet type meals. Ten feet distance is better than six feet. Can one use a gym? Here the advice is to exercize outdoors or at home if one can. It says be cautious unless your gym is limiting the number of people or spacing the equipment adequately. Ask about open windows, air filtration systems, ventilation.  This is excellent advice from experts with the latest information. Over the last few months from March to May most of the information was during lockdown, and a lot can be forgotten or seen as not necessary as things return to normal, as shops schools and cafes, office reopen, and cases remain steady and under control. Being vigilant is good for safely navigating this period through the summer and into winter till a vaccine is found. It is also about being a good civic minded person aware of one's own responsibilities, as when all take safety seriously and practice it everyday, it builds another layer of protection for everybody- because it creates a safer environment for all.     ...

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Amy Chozick of the NYT describes the puzzling idea of a Methodist do-gooder, with serious concern for injustices in the South, making an effort to accumulate money. Especially considering that Hillary Clinton must have known that speechmaking fees would come up in a presidential election campaign. Chozick describes in some detail the two years Hillary tried to shore up the family's finances after Bill Clinton's defeat in the 1980 election for Governor. Following the defeat Bill Clinton went back all over the state to voters to hear their complaints, sometimes for hours at a time. It was upto Hillary to shore up the family's finances. Hillary had to stretch to buy a $112,000 home in a better residential neighborhood. Family friends say Bill was never that interested in money, and never worried about the family's finances. Things were so bleak according to this account that Hillary worried about how they would pay for daughter Chelsea's college tution, as her own mother's experience has always remained with her of being denied a college education because of lack of money. During the Democratic Convention this comes up in the video introduction, something that most people are unaware of, which must have been difficult for an intensely private person like Hillary. Her mother is described in that video as having to go to the corner grocery store as a child with coupons for food. The income of the Clintons as professors in the years around 1975 was $18,000 each. As governor Mr. Clinton earned $33,519 in 1978 with combined income at $51,173 adding Hillary's work at the Rose law firm. A one time deal in the commodities market made 100,000, and an investment in land in the Ozarks led to losses- all at a time when other highly educated people in Arkansas were doing extremely well, including the Walton family. It wasn't until 1992 when Bill Clinton was running for president did the couple make higher income of $297,177 reported in 1992 tax returns. At this time entering the White House, of recent presidents only Harry Truman had lower net worth. Hillary donated her book proceeds for "It Takes a Village," to charity, and turned down an advance. By the time they left office the couple were faced with legal debts, owing $5 million in legal fees- Hillary Clinton saying they were "Dead broke." The former president now sought help to buy a Dutch Colonial in Chappaqua, New York, for $1.7 million. President Jimmy Carter was also facing large losses in his peanut business in Georgia when he left office, only to turn to writing books to salvage his finances. Hoover, FDR, Kennedy, George Bush, George W. Bush, were from families with great wealth or built their fortunes, including candidate Trump, sometimes using influence or connections or in the case of Kennedy's family gaining from the end of Prohibition. Eisenhower, Reagan, Carter were of more modest wealth. Only Harry Truman remains the awesome exception of dignity with extremely modest wealth, a small house in Independence, Missouri, no presidential pension, only an army pension of $112.56 a month in 1953. Truman's story also offers another aspect of public service of an exceptional kind and its value to the country for people to reflect on. A presidential pension of $25,000 was set up one year after Truman left office.  Experts say Truman's Senate Committee over 8 years 1941-1948, helped save billions of dollars in waste, fraud, and in faulty airplane as well as munitions development during the war effort, including saving thousands of lives.  In his farewell address in January 1953, Truman said he had spent 17 hours a day for eight years with no payment for overtime. In the address he correctly predicts that the Cold War would be won and he set the course. It also happened as predicted in that address with changes in the Kremlin and failure in the satellite states. Hillary Clinton put in these 17 hours and gained unmatched experience as Secretary of State, and is in a positon to set the course ahead in a manner that Truman once did in a complex world where careful policy, good judgement and in some situations strong action is needed. Such invaluable public service has never really been rewarded in the way business leaders are, not by a small fraction - too long simply taken for granted.  Considering her life story Hillary Clinton appears to have struggled with this all her life, to create a safety net that too often cracked, sometimes suddenly and unexpectedly. Has this concern sometimes gone too far, could better judgement be exercized. Perhaps or probably. Should it be seen in the context that Truman's situation reminds us. Probably.         ...

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While Italy's budget deficit of 5.3% of GDP in 2009 is relatively healthy, its public debt as a percentage of GDP is rising and forecast to be 118%. The growth in tax revenues is negligible because Italy has seen only 0.54% annual average growth in GDP in the past decade, so its much harder to manage the debt. As the interest on debt exceeds the rate of growth, debt keeps rising all the time, say experts. This makes it harder for Italy to borrow in capital markets, a 9.5 billion bond offer in April 2010 drew onlly 9.78 billion euros in bids. The debt financing is helped by the Italian households having a high savings rate of 15%, and holding 25% of Italy's bonds.

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What will the E-Book do to bookstoreslike Barnes & Noble? This is a question that investors like Burkle, who owns 20% of Barnes & Noble, and Mr. Riggio who owns 31%, are facing. Apple's IPad is expected to sell 5.5 million units in 2010, Amazon's Kindle 3 million, and Barnes and Noble's Nook 1 million units. Barnes & Noble invested early on in a handheld device called the Rocket eBook reader with its investment in NuvoMedia in 1998. But pulled out of the eBook business in 2003. The problem at the time was the lack of enough titles to arouse reader interest and the high prices-$20 per eBook vs $25 for a hardbook. This move proved costly when Amazon launched its Kindle in 2007. Amazon now has 70-80% of the eBook buisness, with Sony, Kobo, and Barnes and Noble competing for the remaining share. Riggio bought the first store for Barnes & Noble on New York's Fifth Avenue in 1971. He promoted superstores with huge selections (over 100,000 titles) and built up a chain of 719 stores in ensuing decades. Now he faces a new reality in the arithmetic of eBooks which could remake this business. Apple set a new method for pricing eBooks that affects booksellers. Publishers and Apple set up a model that gives the publisher 70% of the eBook digital price. EBook sellers act as agents in this approach, and they get 30%. Best sellers sell for $9.99 but other books can be $12.99 or $14.99. Now the digital bookseller gets 30% of $12.99. And as it hasn't paid anything its more advantageous and profitable. This works for publishers and digital booksellers but Barnes and Noble was used to getting much more than $3.90 when it sold a $25 hardcover book. If eBook sales climb to become a quarter or more of total book sales by 2012 then it will lead to a decline in sales revenues for Barnes & Noble. With eBooks costing half of the hardcover prices in brick and mortar retailers the trend is irreversible. To address this trend Barnes & Noble has hired a digital expert Mr Lynch as CEO, and the strategy is to combine the retail presence and customer physical contact in brick-and-mortar stores with eBook retailing, to come up with an answer to this tidal wave of change in book retailing. ...

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Political activism and grassroots efforts- other than street protests - are increasing in eurozone countries facing high unemployment and austerity cuts. The focus is on cleaning up the political system rife with cronyism, corruption and wasteful spending. Brat and Bjork describe one such effort in the town of Torrelodones, Spain, 18 miles from Madrid. Criminal investigations in many Spanish cities have increased public awareness and participation in local government. European Social Survey based in London, reports political activity of this kind in Spain jumped from 27% in 2008 to 39% in 2010. There is an increasing sense that the political elites of the two main parties, the Partido Popular and the Socialists have failed to bring clean government and transparency to Spain. As a result progressives are joining conservatives in an effort to clean up years of wasteful spending, cronyism and corruption in government. The Union for Progress and Democracy, representing an alliance of such groups would win 13% of the vote in a national election, and the ruling conservative Partido Popular would lose half of its support and get only 22.5%, according to independent Spanish polling firm Metroscopia. The new push for transparency is one of the welcome changes at a time of austerity cuts and 27% unemployment in Spain. Many of the perks of public officials such as chaeuffer driven cars and police escorts, contracts for favored few at higher prices, are out in many cities, and accounts made public for scrutiny and change. Transparency International's transparency index shows 33 out of 110 of Spain's biggest cities scoring top grades on the 2012 index, jumping from only one. Following the example of the regional government in Navarra, the central government is drafting the first open-records law. Castilla-La Mancha, the area around Toledo, run by a clean government advocate Maria Dolores de Cospedal from the Partido Popular has taken aggressive steps to clean up the local government and wasteful spending- see the link to Castilla La Mancha. Her long term approach is to clean up government spending and accounts with the idea of preserving spending where it is most needed, in education, healthcare and vital services hit by cuts, an approach being taken in other Spanish cities. ...

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That Chrysler was pushing its new Dodge Ram pickup with a cattle drive through the streets of Detroit in January 2008, and GM and Ford were counting on new redesigned pickups to help them through the year shows how badly the three companies miscalculated the market and how costly it will end up being. The Big Three may end up being the Big Two as Chrysler depends even more on larger vehicles like vans, SUV's and pickups and sales decline is the highest on Chrysler vehicles in June, and Chrysler does not have the money to come up with a completely new product line like its competitors. It also does not have the overseas operations that are earning money. For all three companies its finance arms which used to bring in earnings now are at a loss especially as loans go sour and the resale value of pickups and trucks is in a sharp decline. See the Manheim US auction prices May 2008, source of graph Morgan Stanley.

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In May 2008 the Honda Civic takes the leader position with most sales for a brand passing the Ford F 150 pickup, Honda's Accord and Toyota's Camry and one other car probably the Corolla also passed the F150 in sales, as the sales of the F150 plunged by 33% in May. This according to figures from Autodata, an industry statistics firm. A lot of new things are happening which will change the face of the industry forever. Japanese cars outsold American cars in the American market for the first time with 48% of the market compared to 44% for the US carmakers. And American carmakers now see the changes that are taking place to be permanent. In a sense economics and public perceptions are doing what makes sense in a globalized economy and a global workforce and globally shared aspiratuions for a better life in rising middle classes throoughout the develping world. For Americans to drive around in gas wasting vehicles was riding against the face of scarce energy resources being used in the best possible manner around the world to meet the aspirations of a global workforce of global companies. IBM now has as many or more people working for it in other countries and a huge number in India, how can scarce energy resources be used to meet in the best possible way to meet the aspirations of all of IBM's people, or for that matter the people of any other global company? Its only by Americans shifting to smaller cars and fuel conserving cars that this could happen. ...

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German leadership in the eurozone and the EU- with the strong stand for eurozone countries to do their economic homework and restore fiscal balance, and the action taken to bring the EU countries together on Russian intervention in Ukraine- is leading to questions about the dominant role played by Germany. Chancellor Merkel has played a leadership role partly because of the absence of other leaders with strong support in their home base who could provide such leadership. Merkel's poll rating in Germany actually shot up during the eurozone crisis from 40% in 2010 to 70% in 2013, and steady at 67% in June 2015, as German taxpayers and voters see Merkel as preventing debt ridden countries in the eurozone passing on higher costs in the debt crisis to Germany. With German wages kept low for the last decade to ensure a economic recovery and lower unemployment, Germans see no reason to support other eurozone countries when a low wage sector exists inside Germany, except under conditions that ensure fiscal balance. In a Harris poll taken in France June 30-July 1, 2015, Chancellor Merkel is rated higher at 43% expressing approval compared to 36% saying they approve of French premier Hollande's handling of the Greece and eurozone crisis. Over 50% of people in Spain and in France disapprove of Merkel's handling of the eurozone crisis, yet two thirds of France's main centre right party support Merkel's handling of the eurozone crisis. In the Harris poll when asked how Merkel, IMF, Hollande and Tsipras handled the Greece crisis people polled in France gave 43% approval to the IMF and Merkel compared to 36% for Hollande and Tsipras of Greece, and 60% disapprove of Hollande and Tsipras handling of the crisis compared to 53% disapproval for the IMF and Merkel. The Christian Democrats party in Germany has dominant leaders in its tradition starting with Konrad Adenauer in the early postwar years, through the Kohl years during reunification and Merkel in the eurozone crisis. By contrast the Social Democrats from the period under Wily Brandt, through the Schmidt years and Schroeder have operated under more of a consensus leadership. Under Sigmar Gabriel or some other Social Democratic leader Germany is likely to have a different style of leadership in the future, especially because the German public does not favor Germany playing this kind of dominant role. At different points in the eurozone crisis Merkel's leadership was needed for decisionmaking- making banks take a 50% writedown on their loans in negotiation with Charles Dallara in Brussels, calling for Italy's president to bring in a new government (led by Mario Monti) when premier Berlusconi failed to make needed changes, and providing flexibility for spending rules for Spain, Italy and France. Merkel has actually moved to the centre to maintain popular support inside Germany, especially since the new coalition government was formed with Social Democrat leader Sigmar Gabriel. On the other major issue of immigration Merkel has provided decisive leadership to prevent the rise of anti-immigrant parties in Germany. Herfried Munkler, author of "Power in the Middle," about why Germany is playing this role may provide clues to Germany's role- by representing different aspects of German public opinion Merkel has prevented the rise of right wing populist or nationalist parties in Germany, which would distort the German narrative about what it sees as its role in keeping Europe together after three wars. ...

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De Aenile describes the volatility in stock markets after the Brexit vote. Earnings growth is slow and expectations are declining. Indexes of emerging markets are trading at 10 times earnings, say experts. The S&P 500 ended the quarter at 19 times earnings, compared to historical average of 15, according to this report. Uncertainty remains high in Europe and the U.S., and monetary policy is stuck in a low interest rate environment.

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Some figures on Ford Motor-$15 billion in secured loans, $8 billion five year credit line from banks, and a $7 billion loan held by instituional investors and hedge funds. Add another $3 billion in unsecured financing, notes convertible to common stock. Thats another $18 billion on top of the $23.6 billion in cash on hand, for $41.6 billion in funds available to finance the recovery. Against this is the $7 billion loss this year. Lets say Ford need 3 years for a fresh product line and the bleed costs another $ 7 billion for 3 years or $21 billion at the worst including extra interest expenses for the loans, then there is still $20 billion available for 3 years to come up with a brand new product line across the board. This is positive development for Ford. see also: Sarah Webster, A Chat with Ford's New CEO, Upbeat but Realistic, Mulally says automaker can succeed, but it must face the facts, Saturday, Nov 11, 2006. See also Susan Tompor on the same Business pages' Ford boss is a convincing car guy. In the same Sat, Nov 11 issue of Detroit News see Daniel Howes - Thursdays with Alan, New Ford Boss demands accountability, results- every week. Sunday Nov 26, 2006 - Sarah Webster, Ford's Go-To Guy. Kuzak's Mission: Developing vehicles customers will want. see also on the same Business pages- Executive says global system lets Ford get vehicles to market faster. Sarah Webster could clarify contents of her interview shown on the pages of the Free Press- what is the target time from concept drawing board to cars rolling off the production line to dealer showrooms, is it the 12-14 months by end of 2008? See also in Nov 28, 2006, Detroit News, Bryce Hoffman, Ford Bets the House, a bit pessimistic in tone and angle of vision and selection of quote expert....