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Collapsing demand for used sports utility vehicles.

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Fitch Ratings downgrades Brazil's bonds to double-B-plus in Dec. 2015, a junk rating from an investment grade rating. The yield on Brazil's 10 year benchmark dollar denominated bond increased to 6.97% from 6.7%. Other emerging markets such as Turkey and South Africa now expect ratings downgrades in 2016 as the U.S. Fed raises interest rates. Standard & Poors downgraded Brazil's sovereign debt to junk status in September 2015. GDP in Brazil declined 4.5% in the third quarter of 2015 from a year earlier. Brazil's currency, the real, declined by 32% in 2015, making it harder for companies that borrowed in dollars to pay off debts. President Dilma Rousseff is facing impeachment proceedings following a corruption scandal at Petrobras.

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Anti-immigrant sentiment in the city of Dresden,in the former East Germany. Sentiment is muted compared to places in the western part of Germany, because only 2% of the population in the east are foreigners. It is also muted in comparison to France, because of low unemployment.

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David Cote, CEO of Honeywell International, says U.S. corporations have $1 trillion sitting on the sidelines ready to be invested if business can be provided with more certainty about U.S. finances through successful deficit reducion negotiations. He is the most active CEO behind the Fix the Debt organization and is respected by both sides. In the fiscal cliff negotiations he has taken messages in both directions from Democrats and Republicans. Cote is a former executive of General Electric, who has led a turnaround at Honeywell. Large business stayed out of the deficit negotiations in 2011 which brough on the fiscal cliff arrangement of deep cuts in defense and automatic tax increases if no agreement is reached by Jan. 1, 2013. Cote and CEO's behind Fix the Debt have decided to engage with both political parties in the negotiations in 2011-2013.

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Egyptian president Morsi appoints a new defense minister and two leading generals are asked to retire and continue as advisers. Because Gen. Tantawi was 76, and the new defense minister who comes from the military body the SCAF is 58, it appears to observers that this is a shift to a new generation within the military. In the background is the situation in Syria with the Assad military regime at risk of falling in a civil war, and the focus of Sunni nations in the Middle East and the U.S. on Iran, which could have led to a U.S. effort led by Secretary of State Panetta during his recent visit to mediate between the different factions for a rapprochement. The rapprochement would benefit the retired generals and the military to continue operating businesses that constitute about 25% of the economy, a younger generation in the military better able to adapt to the changes in the Middle East to assume control under civilian leadership, for the Muslim Brotherhood and other political parties the reversing of military decrees subverting the election results, and for the U.S., Sunni nations in the Middle East and European allies better able to focus on the situation with Iran. For all side a win-win negotiation through efforts by Leon Panetta....

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This NYT editorial describes the failure of president Obama's immigration policy and the deportation of large numbers of illegal immigrants. It says Obama has deported more immigrants faster than any other U.S. president. And it says president Obama has used even the statement that he would look for ways to make the process "more humane" a delaying action. It says that after some 2 million deportations the whole situation is infuriating.

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It is very important at this time of the global pandemic not to be hard on yourself. It is best to have a positive mindset and to think positive. It is important to always be kind to yourself. This is the advice from experts in good mental health. Other advice- 1. The old advice of counting your blessings each day in the morning when we wake up or when we go to sleep is more true today than ever. 2. Staying in the present. Doing 10 or more minutes of meditation in the morning. Yoga teaches one to meditate in the early morning hours so if you are up early try this. Try sitting and place a candle light that you can concentrate on. Simply repeating OM with deep inhalations is suggested in the Mundaka Upanishad, the highly venerated book from yoga. If you want to read about it try searching for Swami Sivananda on Kindle. The Sivananda Companion to Meditation can be downloaded on Kindle from Sivananda Yoga Vedanta Centre. 3.  Thinking of the needs of others and less of one's own- as it says here experts have found that we are happier when we think of the needs of others. The self focus today is simply the wrong way of going about the task of pursuit of happiness.  4. Don't overwork. Studies show the German idea of Fierabend works that is of breaking off the work day at 5 pm, then doing something completely different, going out for a bike ride, a walk outside, cooking, friendly conversation, relaxation, exercize, hobbies. ...

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Alexandra Stevenson provides this exceptional account summarizing the reasoning in the minds of Argentine negotiators and holdout bondholders over a debt dispute remaining from the 2001 Argentine debt crisis and default. Over a decade later the repercussions of Argentina's 2001 debt crisis and default are still taking new twists ant turns. Holdout bondholders won in U.S. courts and Judge Griesa ordered Argentina to make full payment demanded by holdout bondholders. Argentina responded by depositing $539 million in Bank of New York Mellon as instalment payment to exchange bondholders. Judge Griesa responded by ruling that if Bank of New York Mellon made the payment it would be in contempt of court. Griesa also called for court mediated negotiations between Argentina and the holdout bondholders to come up with an agreement. Argentina and hedge fund holdouts negotiated in July 2014 but talks faltered. Legal experts say that if Argentina makes an agreement with holdout bondholders led by NML Capital which is asking for $1.5 billion, the risk is that the exchange bondholders could also ask for better terms. After the 2001 crisis following which Argentina defaulted on its debt, agreements were reached for bondholders to be paid about 25 cents on the dollar. Not all bondholders agreed, the bondholders who agreed are called the exhange bondholders, and the ones holding out holdout bondholders. From the Argentine government's point of view the risk of reaching agreement with the holdouts suing Argentina is that the other holdout bondholders not represented in the lawsuit could also ask for the same terms, and Argentina would have to pay all the holdouts costing it $15 billion. Risks if Argentina allows it to go into default are that exchange bondholders would come together to pressure the Argentine government to make a full payment of their discounted bonds quickly. This would cost Argentina payment of as much as $28.7 billion, according to JPMorgan estimates, under the right to "accelerate" payment if Argentina is considered as having missed a July 30, 2014 payment deadline. Legal experts say Argentina has to weigh this risk, which may or may not occur depending on the exchange bondholders taking such action, against the risk of having to pay out $15 billion to all the holdouts. Paying all holdouts would be politically very unpopular in Argentina, posing political risks for the socialist Peronist Kirchner government, already facing difficulties with the trade unions and the stronger opposition from centrist parties in Buenos Aires province. Default would affect Argentine access to capital markets, which is already highly restricted. Yet because Argentina has made the payment to Bank of New York Mellon, blocked by Judge Griesa, the nature of this default would be different. A worse case scenario for Argentina's Kirchner government is reopening negotiations with exchange bondholders for higher payment on debt than the 25 cents on the dollar already agreed to. Argentina faces an acute cash shortage with international reserves of only about $29.5 billion in May 2014, and a slowing agricultural export dependent economy. This is why the prospect of a technical default is being treated with relative calm in Buenos Aires....

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WSJ looks at the 75 years of the US Saudi Arabia relationship that started when US president Franklin Delano Roosevelt met Saudi king Ibn Saud at Bitter Creek, Egypt, on a US Navy destroyer ship in 1945. It has gone through many phases over this period and mainly involved the Saudi kingdom maintaining its supply of oil to the US and Western Europe. This relationship went through an oil embargo during tense periods of Israeli Palestine conflict as in 1983 with an oil embargo that pushed up oil prices. What is different this time is the situation in Yemen where Iranian supported Houthi rebels near the border with Saudi Arabia are engaged in a conflict with the Saudis. Democratic administrations under first Obama and Biden today support reaching a deal with Iran on nuclear weapons development and limit US military support for the war in Yemen. The Saudis for their part are not keen on a regional war and turned down efforts by president Trump to respond to attacks from Yemen. Mr. Biden's envoy has arranged for a deal to reduce tensions between the Houthis in Yemen and Saudis. The diplomatic impasse in relations stems from the Kashoggi incident and president Biden's concern for the human rights situation in Saudi Arabia. Other factors making relations difficult are the economic interests of the two countries diverging. The relationship Roosevelt started in 1945 has changed in its fundamental character. Oil supplies for imports into the US is no longer a factor for the US which was the original interest of president Roosevelt in Saudi Arabia. This changed by 2015 as the US fracking industry enabled US to become self sufficient in oil and able to supply LNG to western Europe. Instead of the US Saudi oil now goes to China. Russian oil also goes to China as its industry expanded with American investment. This has led to a new Saudi relationship with China which has changed the dynamic of the American Saudi relationship. Some of the new aspects of this can also be seen in Saudi relationship with South Asia. Saudi ties have increased with India and India in 2021 was the first country to provide vaccine supplies to Saudi Arabia. Saudis, Qatar, United Arab Emirates are building relationships with India as a close neighbor in the region. Relationships are in some ways improving in the Asian region compared to the period when oil was simply exchanged as a commodity for defense supplies from the US without regard to cultural, educational and other changes in Saudi society. In a sense US and Western Europe paid little attention to the huge democracy of over 1 billion people right in the middle of Asia and followed policies that led to major investments in China and little or no investment in India, and without realizing it followed a policy that the British had pursued in the British Empire of treating different communities and religions as separate as opposed to one community of people in South Asia that were engaged in modernizing, building infrastructure and changing centuries old ways of living. The British Empire was sustained by this kind of thinking, and as long as Indians were complacent and lacked the will to make their aspirations for a better life and infrastructure for modernization this kind of thinking prevailed. The economic crises in Asia have reinforced the idea that there is one community entirely focused on development and modernization in South Asia. The people in South Asia care most about the cost of living and the infrastructure and services for the quality of life they live and their children can aspire for- same in European Union that chose the Greens and chancellor Scholz, and same in the US that chose president Biden to invest infrastructure and people, the same in China and the same in India and the rest of Asia. This is the situation that the US and Britain, and the European Union are now beginning to learn and adapt to that is a constructive aspect of these changes to rebuild the connections and supply chains that were sorely neglected before now. ...

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 This message from Pope Francis is especially relevant today during coronavirus. Francis says of the mistaken priorities of today away from healthcare, education, infrastructure and "coherence" in society and the pain and hardship this is causing in society, there is much that can give people thought to reflect on. Francis  new book, "Let us Dream: The Path To a Better Future" will be out December 1. "If we are to come out of this crisis less selfish than when we went in, we have to let ourselves be touched by others’ pain." He cites a line in Friedrich Hölderlin’s “Hyperion” that speaks to him, about how the danger that threatens in a crisis is never total; there’s always a way out, that where the danger is, also God plants the saving power, a way out. And not simply a way out, God also gives human beings a chance to grasp for and hold onto renewal if only one makes the endeavour. As it says in the Bhagavad Gita God gives man a chance to warm himself near the fire, only those who make the effort to go to the fire can feel the warmth, it is a choice man has to make. And again God says in the Bhagavad Gita that he is not partial to any man. Ever since the global financial crisis hurt working families in the middle and lower classes hard in 2009 because of banks misbehaviour and greed, Pope Francis has called for countries in the western world to heed his warnings about the dangers of greed and corruption to us all. Even George Washington warned of this in his inaugural address, so the warnings are not new. Reminding people once again he says "we cannot return to the false securities of the political and economic systems we had before the pandemic. We need economies that give to all access to the fruits of creation, to the basic needs of life: to land, lodging and labor. We need a politics that can integrate and dialogue with the poor, the excluded and the vulnerable, that gives people a say in the decisions that affect their lives. We need to slow down, take stock and design better ways of living together on this earth." The pandemic has exposed the paradox that while we are more connected, we are also more divided. Francis is never tired of warning that the present political and economic structures and people who staff them have not felt others pain, so he reminds us it is hard to build a culture of encounter in which we meet as people with a shared dignity, within a throwaway culture that regards the well-being of the elderly, the unemployed, the disabled and the unborn as peripheral to our own well-being. Where only self preservation counts. Francis reminds us of the Christian concept that no one is saved alone. This is not just an abstract concept. When Francis was only 18 years and a second year student he was admitted to a Buenos Aires hospital for a severe respiratory disease, so severe that he lost a part of his lungs. He remembers the day August 13, 1957. He understands this pandemic from personal experience. He knows what it is like to be on a ventilator. Surgeons removed the upper right lobe of his lung. Francis struggled to breathe. He was  saved Francis says not even by the doctors, but by a Dominican sister, a senior ward matron, who had been a teacher in Athens before being sent to Buenos Aires. She understood that Francis was dying and after the doctors left asked the nurse to double the prescription dose of penicillin and streptomycin. Sister Cornelia Caraglio, knew better than the doctors from her regular contacts with sick people what they needed, and she had the courage to act on that knowledge.      ...

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How the southern states Puebla, Oaxaca, Chiapas and Guerrero are more like northern Guatemala and Monterey in the north resembles southern Texas creating two different looking countries within one country. The south is heavily indigenous with native peoples and votes for Lopez obrador who won 40% of the vote there compared to 27% for Calderon. Its the reverse in the north where Calderon won 43% of the vote and only 24% went to Obrador. So with this kind of a divide it makes it very difficult to make any progress on policy formulationa and execution and on reaching some agreement in the common interest. The practice of divisive politics is common throughout the Mexican political system so that much needed infrastructure and other development and investment remains unrealized.

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Nuclear plants cost much more, as much as $5 billion to $12 billion. Part of the cost increase is the huge increase in cost of cement, steel, copper etc and a shortage of skilled labor, and a shrunken supplier network for the nuclear industry because not many nuclear plants went up recently. This means if nuclear plants are built because of emissions problems with coal and natural gas then customers will have to pay higher utility bills. About 104 nuclear reactors operate in the USA and most are profitable in recent years only because they were sold to their current operators at less than what they actually cost. For 75 reactors built between 1966 and 1986 the average cost was $3 billion, so the cost now is double or triple what it cost then.

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How the Australian Central Bank raised rates starting in May 2002, with the key lending rate at 5.5 % in July 2005, compared to 3.25 % in the USA. The idea was to control the housing bubble which has scaled back, with the Australian economy growing at 2% and this growth coming mostly from the commodities demand in global markets. Meanwhile the US central bank under Greenspan is holding onto the view that its hard to tell when a bubble is occurring, and it would hurt a healthy economy to raise rates to cool developing bubbles. Australia's central bank holds onto the other view that it is wiser to act now before the bubble gets out of hand. Governor MacFarlane of the Australian central bank said in aspeech in early 2003 that a "scaling back" of household borrowing and property development would be in "the longer term interest of the Australian economy." And the state of New South Wales, which includes Sydney, instituted a 2.25% tax on the sale of investment properties. This move discouraged speculators who bought and "flipped" properties for quick profits. By early 2004 a glut of downtown apartment units emerged in Melbourne, and the bubble began to scale back. During the height of the boom consumer spending was growing by more than 6% ayear, in 2005 this has slowed to 3.5% a year. Because of commodity demand, Australia was able to see growth at 2%, and still avoid the longterm effects of a bubble in housing markets by scaling them back. Patrick Barta closes with a reference to Texas in the 1980's and early 1990's, and Southeast Asia in 1997, when housing prices and the economy went down in tandem hitting employment in the oil and banking industries in Texas. In the case of Asia hitting the economies of some Asian countries with the fall of their currencies. He refers to the overstretched US consumer with load of debt, and the possibility of housing and the economy going down in tandem in the USA, similiar to what happened in Texas and Southeast Asia....

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This report in the Hindusthan Times on president Trump's 25% steel tariff on steel imports focuses on the trade deficit with China of $375 billion in 2017. It shows the trade deficit for the month of February 2018 citing data from China as growing rapidly in 2018 over the prior year by 45%, even as imports went up only by 6.3%. In looking at coverage in the U.S. on this topic many of the reports in the Washington Post and the New York Times were critical of the tariff without mentioning the size of the trade surplus of China. Hardly any reports mentioned the growth by 45% in the February 2018 trade surplus of China with the U.S. over the prior year.  This report cites a tweet by president Trump that China was asked to come up with a plan to reduce its trade surplus by $1 billion in 2018, only 0.27% of the trade surplus, which looks strange as this would do little to change the trading relationship except that it puts pressure on China to change the direction of the surplus that is growing because of the strengthening dollar and the growth in the U.S.  This suggests that even with the 25% steel tariff America's basic problem of the imbalance in trading relationship with China will continue.  The headlines critical of Trump for starting a trade war therefore look strange in this context and show how little this subject is understood or debated with facts. Even today textbook economics principles are cited after two decades of hollowing out of industry in the midwestern U.S. and in Ontario, Canada. This led to public sentiment shift electing a liberal Justin Trudeau in Canada, and an outsider real estate businessman Donald Trump in the U.S.  For Democrats in the U.S. the support of marginal additional gains in trade with president Obama's push for another free trade agreement in the TPP may have cost them theiir working class base and the election.   ...

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Now that the trigger mechanism in the August 2, 2011 Debt Ceiling and Deficit bill is in place- with the trigger calling for 50% of the cuts of $1.2 billion to come from defense spending- thoughts are turning to how and what to trim, and what the overarching framework should be. Former Assistant Secretary of Defense, Joseph Nye, says there is a right way to trim Defense spending. The winding down of the two Bush wars could be used to cut ground forces to 1990 levels, trim the purchases of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters, make better use of drones and less costly technologies, and cutting health care costs in defense. This would not affect U.S. national security. What is needed now is also a framework of what the U.S. wants to see happen in its role in the world. Here Nye reminds readers that President Eisenhower decided not to get involved in Vietnam on the side of the French in 1954, saying it was more important to strengthen the U.S. economy. Its important to remember that this decision came only a couple of years after the end of the Korean War. The idea being the U.S. could not police different countries or engage without considering the big picture. In today's context this also means not engaging in nation-building in remote places and in environments that make it not worthwhile to engage precious resources. The U.S. says Nye should consider itself more in Reagan's terms of "a beacon on the hill." Another factor he alludes to is that 70% of the world's military expenditures are now made by the U.S. and its allies. This means there is great potential for burden sharing. Just as the U.K and France essentially combined their resources for achieving overall defense goals of the two countries to accomplish the same things that they did before, the U.S. can do much in combination with its allies. This helps frame policy and solutions for defense. Pearlstein offers policy and solutions for the economy, and Krauthammer offers policy and solutions for deficit reduction in the Washington Post, August 5, 2011, giving an overall picture of what the U.S. and Europe should strive for in coming years....

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The Wall Street Journal's editorial columns have followed closely the working of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac over the years. Especially during the last decade, when most of the excesses, missteps and failures in the operations of the two companies occurred at huge cost to the US economy and to taxpayers. The Journal quotes from the recent Treasury report on the planned winding down of the two agencies. And focusses attention on the question of what will replace Fannie and Freddie. Only the first of three options looks viable considering the goals of reducing misallocation of national resources, and winding down the federal government's role in housing, says the Journal. With this Option the federal government guarantees are limited to Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans to low income buyers and VA assistance for veterans and farm programs- narrow segments that limits the guarantee strictly to 10-15% of the mortgage market. The Journal says that the conclusions of the Treasury report are what WSJ has been saying for 20 years: " The strength of this option is that it would minimize distortions in capital allocation across sectors, reduce moral hazard in mortgage lending and drastically reduce direct taxpayer exposure to private lender's losses." And the points about the benefits: " With less incentive to invest in housing, more capital will flow into other areas of the economy, potentially leading to more long-run economic growth and reducing the inflationary pressure on housing assets. Risk throughout the system may also be reduced, as private actors will not be as inclined to take on excessive risk without the assurance of a government guarantee behind them. And finally, direct taxpayer risk exposure to private losses in the mortgage market would be limited to the loans guaranteed by FHA and other narrowly targeted government loan programs: no longer would taxpayers be at direct risk for guarantees covering most of the nation's mortgages." This bit of wisdom is especially significant, as misallocation of capital that went on in housing for the better part of the last decade has hurt America and the American people. It makes sense to have explicit money allocated by Congress for housing help to the poor and have no housing guarantees that have hurt the economy....