LyrArc Article Gist
Allyson Chiu and Emily Wright show how inventors in India are working on more efficient residential air conditioning units that cool single rooms. About 1.2 billion units are there across the globe, billions more may be needed to replace the old ones and to meet surging demand in Asia, Latin America and Africa. International Energy Agency estimate is for these AC units to triple by 2050 what they are now, adding 2.4 billion AC units. Using the existing technology and emissions would mean putting 2 billion metric tons of emissions from these older AC units into the atmosphere in 2050 or what 476 million cars put out, says IEA.  The Indian government, RMI, a global coalition including Gree of China, and Daikin of Japan are doing the research on new AC units. In 2015 about 5% of India's 300 million households had such AC units. 8-10 million units were sold in 2023. This would rise to 1 billion units sold and installed by 2050 says IEA, that would emit 25 gigatons of cumulative emissions in 2050, or what a staggering  6 billion gas powered cars emit. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Panasonic forecast a loss of $10 billion or 780 billon yen for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2012. This is the second largest loss for a Japanese manufacturing company. Hitachi lost 787 billion yen in the fiscal year ending March 2009 after the financial crisis of 2008. In the prior fiscal year Panasonic showed net profit of 74 billion yen. Panasonic posted restructuring costs of 191 billion yen for the television business and 49 billion yen for the chip business for the first three quarters of the current fiscal year. For the fourth quarter it will take a 250 billion yen writedown of goodwill for the Sanyo acquisition. Panasonic acquired Sanyo based on the potential for growth in its lithium ion battery and solar panel business. But the Sanyo unit is facing stiff competition from manufacturers in South Korea and China, with Samsung Electronics as a major competitor. The strength of the Japanese yen is affecting all Japanese manufacturers. The price competition is severe in the television business and this is also affecting Sony. Since the acquisition Sanyo's earning prospects have significantly worsened says Panasonic CFO, Makoto Uenoyama. Panasonic CEO Ohtsubo defends the acquisition saying that without the rechargeable battery business and its potential in hybrid/electric cars Panasonic's growth potential would not be the same as it is now. Panasonic plans to stop production at two plants making plasma and LCD panels this fiscal year. The job cuts planned will bring the number of employees down from 367,000 in the prior fiscal year to below 350,000....

LyrArc Article Gist
There is a 82% jump of oil at sea in 2025 as China and India stay away from sanctioned oil from Russia Iran. About 1.4 billion barrels or 15% of supply out at sea on tankers by December 2025. When Modi met Putin he offered to continue supply of oil. India says Jamieson Greer in a recent interview with Sarah Burns, is not buying Russian oil and negotiations are ongoing so that a deal with US on dropping tariffs is reached in the very near future. This oil at sea is keeping prices of Brent crude at about $66 in December 2025. DJT is referring to prices down for oil, to gas pump prices in US states having dropped to $1.99 a gallon to show progress in tackling the affordability crisis in the US at a rally in Pennsylvania.

LyrArc Article Gist
The leaders of India and China, Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping will meet at a 2 day summit in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, China, on April 27, 2018.  The meeting is significant because for the first time the 2 leaders will meet on a one on one basis for a significant part of the time without aides to get a better understanding of each other, and a get a sense of how to establish a good relationship between the 2 countries. Ma Jiali of the China Reform Forum, a think tank affiliated with the Communist Party's Central Party School says a better relationship would serve China's interests for regional calm, so that China can focus on internal issues of tackling poverty in the interior of China, tackle economic issues arising from a difficult trading relationship with the U.S. including the tariffs of the Trump administration.  China's leadership have not anticipated the decisions made by president Trump and the Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to take a strong stand on correcting an imbalance in trade that leads to about $1 billion in trade deficit each day for the U.S. with China. Previous administrations in the U.S. have not taken action. Also at issue in the U.S. China relationship is for the first time transfer of technology for "Made in China 2025." China's earlier advances were made with a free flow of technology from the U.S. and Europe.  The last time the two leaders met was in 2014. This time the issues of border relations in the Himalayas, and the relations with China in the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean region, the growing relationship between Australia, U.S., India and Japan, are seen in a different light with the strong disagreements on trade relations with the U.S.  China sees a need for improving relations with India. Prime Minister Modi faces new elections in 2019 and the need to focus on infrastructure and development to win a second term in office for the ruling BJP Party.  A reduction in tensions serves the interest of both countries and leaders.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Toyota makes a sharp rebound after the recall and the tsunami in Japan. Still Takahiko Ijichi, senior managing officer, strikes a note of caution. He says "the latest numbers are not necessarily reflective of our true strength." Toyota has to contend with the slowdown in China, the problems in Europe, and the strong yen in coming months.

LyrArc Article Gist
DJT on Iran and the midterms-  "voters understand that" about Iran not having a nuclear weapon and calls for Saudis, Qatar, Pakistan, Oman, Turkey, to sign the Abraham Accords. He says the electon results in some states May 26 showed Republicans and much of the Nation with large majorities for candidates endorsed by DJT- voters understand the president's policy to not let Iran go for a nuclear weapon. This WSJ report cites concerns of Republicans about the midterms yet as soon as it appeared that the president was about to reach a  deal that would be similar to Obama's- that failed and financed Iran's third effort for nuclear weapons- over the weekend, as soon as this appeared to be the course many Republicans and the WSJ Editorial Board, said this was a bad idea. The president paused that effort. At a Cabinet meeting DJT said  about the Arab states signing the Abraham Accords- the Saudis and Qatar, Oman, Turkey,Jordan, “I think they owe that to us to be honest.”  “I’m not sure we should make the deal if they don’t sign." On Iran getting funds from the US which could go right into making a nuclear weapons program again as it did after the Obama administration did this, DJT had this to say- “We’re not talking about any easing of sanctions, no giving money. When they behave properly…we’ll let them have their money.” Repeatedly at campaign events and rallies across the country for 10 years DJT has said Obama made a serious mistake in handing over funds that were put right into building a nuclear weapons program with a ballistic weapons program, for a third time. This has happened before in North Korea. Obama allowed 11 tons of uranium enriched at 20% to be shipped to Russia- that did not stop Iran from a new nuclear weapons program and a threat to Israel. There is also considerable Republican skepticism about any deal that does not remove nuclear weapons. About sending the Iranian uranium to Russia or China DJT said- “No. That would not make me comfortable.”  About Iran's economy DJT said inflation is "at 250% "and they are negotiating on fumes." DJT calls it a "conflict" (the blockade not committing US troops) and not an open ended war. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Pope Francis spoke against the effort by the European Union bureaucracy to limit the use of "Happy Christmas" and called it a form of "ideological colonization." He told reporters "many, many dictatorships" had tried this and all had failed on a trip back from Greece and Cyprus. The European Union bureaucracy then withdrew the 32 page guide on use of sensitive language.  Francis said European Union was "necessary" but warned against the EU bureaucracy trying to iron out the differences of culture and religion around the EU bloc countries. "This could end up dividing the countries and causing it to fail. The EU must respect each country as it is structured and not make them uniform." One of the main influences for the European identity, of western civilization, is Christianity. Less known is that King Alfred in his reign 871-899 AD, in one of the most stirring periods of British history, relied on Christianity as a civilizing influence on tribes of the Nordic countries that were invading Britain. The same process of bringing a civilizing influence on heathen tribes happened in mainland Europe. And a similar process took place in India with Vedanta and Buddhism as it spread to China, Japan, Sri Lanka and the rest of Asia. Civilization meant education, learning, wisdom, and came at this time through the ideas of the Bible or the Upanishads, or the Buddhist ideas.  Alfred struggles with how that wisdom once lost, may be retrieved by being written in the English language from Latin. He writes during this period of tumult and invasions- Learning had declined so thoroughly in England, that there were very few people on this side of the Humber who could understand their divine services in English. There were so few of them that I cannot recall a single one south of the Thames when I succeeded to the kingdom. Thanks be to God Almighty that we have any supply of teachers at all! Therefore I beseech you to do as I believe you are willing to do, as often as you can, free yourself from worldly affairs so that you can apply that wisdom that God gave you where ever you can. Remember what punishments befell us in this world when we ourselves did not cherish learning nor transmit it to other men. We were Christians in name only and very few of us possessed Christian virtues." What a contrast from the time of Alfred when Christian thought was identified with learning and wisdom, and the loss of learning and wisdom felt so deeply in this way. In the 12th century Dogen brought Buddhist thought and learning from China to Japan, before that Bodhidharma from India to China in the sixth century AD, and Buddhist thought evolved out of the Upanishads in the 6th century BC, in the same spirit of reflection.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
India says China carefully prepared an attack on Indian soldiers in the Galwan Valley mountain ridges, at Ladakh's border with China. 20 Indian soldiers were killed and 76 injured. This report in the Guardian shows satellite images of the Galwan Valley taken by Planet Labs, an imaging company. The images show that days before the clash there was increased activity on the Chinese side, including the damming of a river and the movement of troops and machinery close to the disputed and poorly demarcated border. Australian Strategic Policy Institute says its analysis of satellite images shows PLA Chinese forces regularly crossing into Indian territory temporarily on routine patrol routes. Indian officials also say commanders from both sides met on 13 June and agreed to each retreat back 2 kilometres in the Galwan Valley and Pangong Lake area. For unknown reasons Chinese troops instead of retreating as agreed erected a tent on disputed territory close to Patrolling Point 14. India's 16 Bihar Regiment led by Col Santosh Babu, dismantled the structure in an attempt to push back the PLA troops. According to accounts given to the Hindu newspaper cited here in the Guardian, Babu and his troops later went to the Chinese side to challenge the refusal to retreat, they were ambushed by Chinese forces on the steep mountain precipice. Chinese PLA troops allegedly unblocked the dammed river, releasing a rush of water to destabilise Indian soldiers, and attacked with stones and makeshift spiked weapons. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
In an essay published on March 16, 2012, in Seeking Truth, the Communist party's main ideological publication, Xi Jinping cited the importance of consensus decisionmaking in the Chinese leadership now and in the future. "All decisions on major undertakings must adhere to the Party's principle of democratic centralism... They can't be decided by an individual or a small group of people... but should be decided according to collective wisdom and strict procedure." The efforts of Bo Xilai, the Communist leader in Chongqing, were seen as "playing to the crowd." By reviving Mao theory and advocating policies which would mean more participation by the state in the economy, Xilai was moving in the opposite direction of a World Bank-DRC Report on the Chinese economy- supported by the next premier Li Keqiang- that calls for less dominantt role of the state owned companies in the economy. Bo Xilai recently resigned as party head in that province. The essay is based on a speech on March 1 by Xi Jinping at the Central Party School, the Communist party's leading think tank. Xi said "if you crave to be ostentatious, to play to the crowd, and seek personal gains and high office, and if you don't aim for higher goals, it is not only difficult to push forward the work of the Party and the people, but also damages the Party's image, lets people down, and makes them lose faith in us." This sets the tone for consensus leadership in China, based on collective wisdom and careful thinking, into the next generation....

LyrArc Article Gist
This report in WSJ says 4 months before becoming China's president in 2012 Xi Jinping issued a Communist party directive as head of the party committee overseeing the former British colony. The directive cautioned officials about a growing separatist sentiment in Hong Kong. It said "we must dare to struggle and be good at fighting," a retired official describes as Xi's approach. Another facet of Xi's views on Hong Kong are that his father as a party leader for the southern province of Guangdong in 1978 to 1980 near Hong Kong was the first after the Cultural Revolution to set up ties between the mainland and the British colony of Hong Kong. China was experimenting with a different model for the economy and Xi's father set up the early links with Hong Kong so that the flow of economic refugees from mainland China to Hong Kong could be reduced and the gap in living standards could be narrowed. He set up the first "Special Economic Zone" and met delegations to start the Sino-British talks on Hong Kong's future. Xi Jinping grew up in the turmoil of the Cultural Revolution. His father Xi Zhongzun, was jailed in 1962 in internal party struggles, and his family was persecuted during the Cultural Revolution that started in 1966. The Cultural Revolution that went on till 1976 ironically was an attempt to stamp out possible capitalist or imperialist influences from the colonial period and the opium wars with Britain. He was later rehabilitated under premier Deng. During the turmoil Xi with some difficulty was admitted to University after spending some years in the countryside. His father remained loyal to the ideals of the Chinese Revolution even though he had suffered from the internal party struggles, an experience remains a strong memory for Xi Jinping. It is as if the period is seen as a period of experimentation and failure for the party not for its ideals of China rising from the colonial period after its failure to engage with the world before the colonial period leading to backwardness. The unity of the country had to be maintained bringing Hong Kong and possibly Taiwan together with the mainland. Rejuvenation was happening and stability was essential for Chia to grow and emerge into the "China Dream" a word coined by Xi for its emergence in the community of nations as an equal to western powers after the colonial period of oppression and cultural backwardness. In this way he is different than other leaders before him who followed premier Deng who started the experimentation with markets and economic structures. The leader preceding him was party secretary in Tibet with a prime minister who was an engineer working on public projects, in sharp contrast to Xi who had the the sense of authority from seeing different phases of Communist party experimentation in his early years. The Bo Xi Lai incident during the transition before 2012 also influenced Xi. This was an attempt similar possibly to the attempt by Lin Piao under Mao to subvert Communist Party leadership into a new direction bringing China under Soviet influence after the break by Mao. Bo Xi Lai, a party secretary for an interior less developed region Chongqing, who rose from being Mayor of Dalien to governor of Liaoning province. Bo Xi Lai attempted to subvert the process operating since the Cultural Revolution of leadership by consensus within the party ensuring stability and continuity needed for development and pushing the trauma of the Cultural Revolution out of memory. He did this by seeking high party office for his own ambitions not for the party and China's interests that guided leaders after the Cultural Revolution. This incident and the period of two decades of growth of market economy had led to growing corruption and Xi was convinced that "corruption would doom the Communist Party and the State" and the resulting instability was bad for China. During this period in 2012 Xi Jinping said that it was necessary to remove "tigers and flies" who could endanger the party's ideals and the future growth and stability of the country.  About 10,000 party officials were removed for corruption, and the rule of Politburo Standing Committee immunity (PSC) of the party operating after the Cultural Revolution was removed. The PSC is the body that at the top of the organization structure that runs China. On Hong Kong Xi now believes that the problem is best tackled by the Hong Kong government not by intervening from Beijing. There is increasing perception in Beijing and Hong Kong that the local government, business leaders have messed things up, by getting into the habit of telling Beijing planners what they wanted to hear, and failing to communicate with the 7 million people of Hong Kong. These leaders are also in a bind because Xi believes that Beijing exercized "overall governance authority" over Hong Kong. A 2014 government white paper warns against "confused or lopsided perceptions" of Hong Kong's status, saying that its partial autonomy comes "solely from the authorization of the central leadership."     ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This report in WSJ looks at the unanimous vote in the House of Representatives delisting hundreds of Chinese companies trading on U.S. stock exchanges. The Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act passed by unanimous voice vote in the House of Representatives after a similar vote in the Senate in May, and will be signed into law by president Trump. The law says foreign companies should be delisted if they fail to comply with U.S. Public Accounting Oversight Board regulatory agency's financial audits for 3 years in a row. The basis of the law is that all companies should be equally treated and required to meet U.S. regulatory standards to be listed. It also ensures safety for investors who may be defrauded of their money investing in companies that have not met such audit requirements. Wirecard in Germany and some Chinese companies have failed in the past because of lax overseas standards. This gives three years for the Chinese companies to prepare. This report also points out that the MSCI Index has 43% Chinese companies even more than before. American investors can still buy these stocks on the Hong Kong exchanges so that if fairness and investor protection should prevail American investors have to think and act along the same lines. China is also decoupling from the U.S. to some extent and pushing to have its companies listed on the Hong Kong Shanghai and  Shenzen stock exchanges. For these reasons the access to global capital is not likely to be affected by this law particularly with the behaviour of major American institutional investors. China is providing incentives to these investors even though it did not do so in the past creating another hurdle to the goal of creating a level playing field in regulatory requirements stock for all companies listed on American exchanges and safety for investors.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This commentary in the WSJ says it is essential that the U.S. get back manufacturing of all technological goods back to the U.S. or its allies. The dangers of depending on China or other countries not clearly allied with the U.S. is quite clear especially after the pandemic. The U.S. and European supply chains need to be completely remade, restructured, to avoid dependence on China or countries that are not allies. This is what supply chain renewal is about. Yet initiatives alone with hundreds of billions of dollars price tag re not the answer to the problem. What is needed are specific targeted actions such government direct assistance to key sectors to ensure U.S. technological advantages in worldwide competition. Giving a hole range of incentives and direct financial support to industries making everything from electronic and computer components to high tech parts that go to defense and civilian production.   The U.S educational component in this puzzle is university students in all high tech courses which should be kept for U.S. citizens or from key allied nations at American universities. The manufacturing base would mean securing incentives and aid to manufacturing industries, component by component, part by part, to secure American leadership and distinct advantage.  Job losses have to be reversed and industries relocated back to the U.S. And only in cases where it is advantageous to manufacture overseas to relocate in allied countries India, Japan or South Korea. U.S. labor has to be brought into the picture as a key participant in the national interest and given an important role. R& D efforts have to be developed component by component, technological part by part, and technology by technology, so that a systematic plan can be followed to secure American leadership for the rest of this century, is what experts including this one say is required today. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The new president of India Droupadi Murmu is from the state of Odisha, formerly called Orissa. She is from a tribal community in the state and brings a new face for development through "sab ka vikas sab ke sath" new India's slogan today of development for all Indians through their own efforts, as it brings to the forefront the tribal communities all over India. The tribal communities in India have a population of 106 million or about 9% of India's population. In Orissa percentage of tribal is over 25%, in most of the northeast it is at least 25%, and in borders areas with China Arunachal 70%, Sikkim 34%, Jammu & Kashmir 12%. In key states of Madhya Pradesh 20%, Gujarat 25%, Rajasthan 13%. The strategic nature of the decision for the unity of India can be seen on how the tribal communities are critical parts of the northeast, the border areas,  and even of the central, eastern and western regions of India which most people are not aware of. Bringing in the tribal communities through respected leaders is part of the unfinished work of Mohandas Gandhi in getting the delivery of services to the last man in the line, and the tribal communities are a forgotten part of this.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Mr. Trump the Republican nominee for president dials into Fox New to speak just as Kamala Harris was making her speech and called Mr. Trump "an unserious man" who would bring "serious" negative consequences to the Nation if elected. Bret Baier and Martha McCallum were doing Fox News coverage as Kamala Harris made her speech. McCallum said at one point Kamala Harris was having some success with Women, Black and Hispanic voters, and Trump objected that it was not harris but he that was having success with Women, Black and Hispanic people. Trump's comments- "she didn't talk about China, about crime, fracking."  She talks about this and that, she would do this and that, but she did not do any of it, said the former president. This recalls president Biden's speech at the Convention in Chicago when he said Trump said he would do this every week, to fix America's infrastructure, and he Trump did nothing. He was not Coach, Trump said of Walz, he was Assistant Coach. After 10 minutes Baier heard Mr. Trump entering something on his phone and he ended the conversation with the former president., because they were running out of time. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Centuries of neglect of Asian education and students by European nations during colonization is now turned on its head. Which is also not a good thing, in fact something just as bad.  A British professor has to remain anonymous to ask for an honest conversation on why British universities are so dependent on foreign students. Seven of ten University students in Britain studying for Masters degrees are overseas students. This is a shocking statistic and only goes to show the lack of the same opportunity for higher education for students from England, Scotland and Wales. Students at home cannot afford the 30,000 pounds that students from China or other countries pay. Not too long ago British funding made it possible for British people to attend British universities. It points to the lack of funding of higher education in Britain to give the same opportunities as students from other countries to the British education system that has taken hundreds of years of gradual investment to establish. It points to the consensus in society that neglects the importance of higher education which is as important for the future as the system which channels young people based on aptitude to take the course of apprenticeship training after high school for better incomes in industry and manufacturing. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Indian government's restrictions on single brand retail store ownership by foreign companies has long been an impediment for companies like IKEA. The decision by the Indian government in 2012 to allow 100% ownership removes this impediment. However other restrictions are seen as onerous- one requirement is for 30% of sourcing to be done in India. IKEA management points out that the sourcing from small and midsize enterprises may be difficult. By contrast IKEA has increased local sourcing in China from 30 to 65% just to meet price competition fom local competitors, according to Jen Hansegard, head of the China operations.

LyrArc Article Gist
Ford Motor opened its new plant in Chongqing, China. It was approved in 2009 and is operated in a joint venture with Chongqing Changan Automobile Company and Japan's Mazda Motor. It has annual capacity of 150,000 cars and will manufacture the redesigned Ford Focus. Ford says this will be part of 15 new models in China by 2015. Further expansion is expected to be slower from now on, because China's policy is shifting towards consoldating its manufacturing base for automobiles- which experienced hyper level growth in the last decade- and not adding new capacity. Ford made a late entry in the Chinese market compared to GM. It sold 519,300 vehicles in China in 2011, compared to GM's 2.55 million vehicles. The change in China's policy may mean Ford has less opportunity to catch up with VW, GM and Toyota in China.

LyrArc Article Gist
Japan's GDP declined by 3.5% in the third quarter of 2012. GDP is expected to decline in the fourth quarter putting Japan in a recessionary phase. The rebound effects following the tsunami and earhtquake are receding and sales to China are sluggish. The strong yen and the eurozone crisis hurts exports. The proposed sales tax increase by the Noda government may be jeopardized by the recessionary phase.

LyrArc Article Gist
The International Energy Agency says China used 2.252 billion tons of oil equivalent in 2009 compared to the 2.170 billion tons of oil equivalent used by the USA. This oil equivalent measure covers crude oil, nuclear energy, coal, natural gas and renewable energy like hydropower. To give an idea of the scale of the increase- China's total energy use was only half of that of the USA in 1999 ten years ago. China plans to reduce emissions by cutting the carbon dioxide per unit of GDP by 40-45% from 2005 levels by 2020. But China looks at higher energy use in the years ahead. Much of the energy use is propelled by infrastructure building and energy intensive use in industries.

LyrArc Article Gist
Simon Jenkins of The Guardian says it is time to clear some of the myths around migrants, tariffs, and NATO and in this way action by the current Republican administration can be a positive step. Jenkins says DJT is moving quickly in the first 100 Days because most presidents get only 2 years to make changes before losing the House or the Senate making legislation difficult to pass. If it appears that things are happening on many fronts too quickly that is just the nature of things under a democratic process where checks and balances mean all three parts of government- executive powers of the president are balanced by powers of Congress and of the Supreme Court. Jenkins points out that action on migrants with the unease about millions of migrants coming in illegally, putting tariff barriers to bring manufacturing back and rebuilding America's forgotten middle class, cutting the bureaucracy and misuse of funds, sending education back to the states, and rethinking NATO bringing Russia back into the community of nations, will have long term positive effects long after the chaotic nature that they appear in the news cycle and the media presentation has passed. He cites China being invited back into the community of nations under Nixon. And today disarmament possible only by working with Russia, when China is moving in the direction of increasing nuclear missiles with trouble spots in Taiwan. He does not mention the sending back of about 1 million people back to Mexico under President Eisenhower in Operation Wetback in 1954, Harry Truman a senator from Missouri who led the effort to cut waste and fraud in government spending in the Second World War, the ED Hirsch graph showing reading comprehension scores of American K-12 headed one way - straight down since the 1960's showing education is failing in the US and needs parents and states to come up with new solutions.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
No country benefited more than first Japan and then South Korea till 2000, and now China till 2022 from the trade and sharing of industrial technology enabled by the American backed system of trade and industry. Walter Russell Mead says in WSJ that China has chosen to challenge the system through which it developed into an industrialized nation with the US running huge trade deficits, sharing its technology and letting Chinese manufacturing displace American local manufacturing. China is seen as challenging the system. Yet what has happened is that this process of displacing American manufacturing and industry was not sustainable anyway and continued for a decade longer than it would otherwise have lasted because American industry could not easily reverse a course it had set of setting up manufacturing in China, once that manufacturing base had already been transferred from the US to China and American companies had grown accustomed to a new state of affairs of making overseas in China. Not much thought was given to how American workers would react to that situation as companies and industries making that transfer made independent decisions. This led to the election of Trump with wins in midwestern states that had suffered from loss of manufacturing communities.  The Trump tariffs on Chinese goods and the Biden administration lining up completely behind American workers and families for the first time for Democrats has sent the signal to China that it finds the situation of China's dominance in the trade system unacceptable. The document of "China 2030" of the Chinese Government with planned dominance in key sectors and industries was met with alarm across America in all parties. The paradox of Apple as a key sector in Chinese manufacturing and the largest American company is the result of policies pursued by America without realizing the true cost of shipping manufacturing out of the country. That process is now being reversed with change of management starting at Intel Corp. and other companies to bring the manufacturing base back to the US. This policy is being resolutely pursued by the US and will speed up following the pandemic which has further demonstrated how much of a mistake the policy of sending out manufacturing in critical areas such as health could be. This is the reality behind the rhetoric and verbal exchange between China and the US. With the rapid growth of Chinese manufacturing countries such as India were put in a difficult situation  as this was preventing the local industrial base developing in India with Chinese imports in the same way as it had damaged that of the US and the EU. Worse it led to the use of US and European technology in China's defense industrial base including aviation and other sectors that threatened India's borders with repeated Chinese incursions in the Himalayas, from the Pakistan western Himalayas to Ladakh and the eastern Himalayan mountains. That situation existed long before the Trump and Biden administration and the Modi administration called for a return to America of its industrial manufacturing base and its technological leadership. Both the Bush and Obama administrations and the Indian Congress administrations failed to realize the dangers of letting the US, European and Indian industrial base wither. India is not just a country but a culture that extends from the Himalayas all the way across Bangladesh to the Indonesian islands which shares a common cultural history of Buddhism and the Vedanta. This is a region that has a population of about 2 billion people. In a larger sense the cultural history extends to  Vietnam and Japan with its Buddhist culture whose origins go back to India, and also of China itself. In the larger sense this is a population of close to 3 billion people. The economic development of this region and learning from the parliamentary traditions and scientific discoveries of the modern period since 1700 is a task for both the US, Europe and the people of the region.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Honda Motor Company will have one bright spot as sales of motor bikes increase from 13.9 million to 14.9 million for 2009. Honda two wheelers sell briskly in Asia and South America, where they are considered low-price necessities. On the other hand Honda's auto sales will drop by 400,000 to 3.5 million for the fiscal year ending in March 2009. Honda will post a profit of $860 million or 80 million yen for this fiscal year, down 87%, by contrast Toyota will post a loss of 350 billion yen, and Nissan a loss of 265 billion yen. Honda is seeing huge growth in markets like Indonesia where $50 can be a down payment on a motorcycle., Honda sold 2.8 million motorbikes there up 34%.. Now sales are predicted by Honda Motor to drop to somewhere between 2.1 and 2.5 million bikes. Honda markets heavily to people under 25 in Indonesia, who make up half the population of 240 million people. Honda is also working on lowering costs of manufacturing by focussing on production in India, China, Thailand and Vietnam. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Important year end reveiw of the oil price forecasting work of so many anlaysts and where they failed . The IEA and the US Enery Dpt forecast have year after year underestimated this pirce by over 20%. Analysts change the price forecasts within a couple of weeks based on changing information and assumptions. Of all this the Saudi Arabian forecasts have ben within 12 % of what has actually ocurred according to a study by Ronald Berger Strategy Consultants of Muich, Germany. And whats their forecast for 2008. By extrapolating from the Saudi budget and the assumptions, used such as giving a wide margin to avoid a deficit in the budget if oil prices undershot by a wide margin, one gets $75 for US benchmark crude. Forecast by experts are in the neighborhood of $80 average for the whole year 2008. Goldman recently revised theirs upwards from $85 average for 2008 to $95 within a 4 week period. How good is the Goldman forecast. No one really knows. Lehman has a forecast of $84 average for 2008 and bases it on the opacity of the market because no one knows what OPEC will do with supply and China does not provide good information on demand. So basically anlysts are adding an uncertainty premium to the price of oil. And this is especially so because as the Chief Economist at IEA says global space capacity is so thin and any event can influence price. Last year the rhetoric about Irans nuclear intentions was enough to stir up the price, as were other smaller events disrupting supplies. But the Iranian situation has since cooled down and diplomatic solutions are in the works. So what to expect in 2008 in the way of political uncertainty. Iraq, Iran, Palestine, Lebanon have all seen a cool off in the ast couple of years and the Bush administration rhetoric has become outmoded as has other rhetoric from Iran so that does'nt look like it will stir up oil prices in 2008. Still there will be some uncertainty premium about supply from OPEC and demand from China and India. And demand from the Middle Eastern oil producing countries themselves as well as the increasing demand in India and China will mean that lower demand in the US because of a recession will still mean an increase in global demand over 2007 of 1.5 million barrrels a day over 2007's 85 million barrels a day. What will change the dynamics of this situation is the government mandated fuel economy for all vehicles on the road with Europe more aggressive in this area under the pressures of global warming. If this impacts India, China and Russia as these fuel saving technologies are transferrred there overall consumption should see an impact. Europe's targets are only 4 years away for 2012. And the environment may cause China to bring in newer technologies that both contribute to improving environment and conserving energy. Because China's environmental record is almost catastrophic one could see some of this happen much sooner than expected after the Olympics in 2008. All that might change the way the world looks at oil and its use, and all energy sources and their use. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Indian oil minister Hardeep Singh Puri says India has diversified its sourcing of oil supplies to avoid dependence on the Straits of Hormuz. It has weeks of reserves. Saudis have 5 million barrel a day pipeline to bypass Hormuz waterway and UAE 1.5 million barrel a day pipeline to bypass Hormuz waterway, so that 6.5 million barrels a day could be added to meet Asian oil demand, in addition to convoys escorted by US warships  in Hormuz waterway to meet demand from China, India and Japan. This would mean China is itself dependent on American seapower to maintain it's oil supplies, a third of which come through the Hormuz waterway and keep important sealanes of navigation open. China, India, Japan, and other World are critical for the world economy manufacturing sector and comprise 3.5  billion or about half of the world's population. In addition Latin America and Africa are dependent on oil supplies and prices.  New pipelines, renewable energy, will become more important in the years ahead, and figure more in planner's minds after this Hormuz episode. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
China imports most of Iran's oil exports about 1.8 million barrels a day which flow through the Straits of Hormuz. Iran is heavily dependent on these exports for oil revenues that support it's economy. All Asian economies are heavily dependent on the oil flowing from Saudis, UAE and Iran through the Straits.  For Iran it would mean the loss of oil revenues needed to support its economy if the Straits are shut down. Iran's central bank says it get $67 billion from oil exports 90% of it going to China alone.  82% of oil imports of Asian countries  from Saudi, UAE, Qatar and Iran sources go though the Straits.  The US is not dependent on the Straits- less than 10% of its oil. Also true of Germany. The US  would have to use air strikes to prevent any mining of the waters seaway, and China, US, Japan, India would join in combined effort to keep all sea navigation open for international shipping.  ...