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The Economist makes an important point about the violence, poverty and terrorism in failing states. The failure of civil institutions and civil wars in Africa, have led to complete breakdown. Similiar situations playing out in Afghistan and Pakistan. At the very least says the Economist, "there is evidence that economic growthin countries next to failing states can be badly damaged." Even in South Asia where India has forged ahead with high growth rates, one can say that economic development has not made a significant dent in the poverty, malnutrition and lack of infrastructure across the country. It adds that a weak goverment may lack the wherewithal to identify and contain a pandemic that could spread globally.

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67,000 factories closed down in China in the first half of this year. Things got a lot worse in the importing countries of the US and western Europe after October 2008 so the closedowns will have accelerated. This will have asignificant impact on the export sector and foreign investment that has propelled the economy so far. It will also create unemployment, and if back wages are not paid local governments may have to step in or there will be unrest among the laid off workers. Much of the rural migrant workers who came to the coastal provinces might now have to go back to their villages in fact reversing some of the urbanization tht has happened.

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At 0.3% growth in 2024 the OECD predicts German economic growth lower than that in France or Italy. High oil and gas prices, worker shortages, and lack of government subsidies to compete with highly subsidized solar and EV's China in a level playing field, have hit German industry hard. The adjoining article looks at France and what it is doing right.

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The serious differences between founders Elon Musk and Sam Altman over the non profit mission of OpenAI have spilled out into the open. Musk feels Altman is turning his back on the early mission set for OpenAI by planning to profit from OpenAI and drifting away from what it set out to do aware of risks during the early years of AI.

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About Blair's policy direction in favor of adding and replacing nuclear power plants to meet Europe's power needs. Notice the strong language used "dereliction of duty," and "back on the agenda with a vengeance."

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Popular discontent with lack of improvement in infrastructure and services as a result of hosting the World Cup Soccer and Olympics in Brazil. Issues with the construction for the World Cup and the Olympics.

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Only 8 months into office, the leader of the Democratic party in Japan, resigns as Prime Minister. After perceived indecisiveness by the Japanese public on the Okinawa base change issue and on issues related to cutting wasteful spending. The base issue related to a campaign promse to move the American base out of Okinawa and even out of Japan. The North Korean government's aggressive behaviour led to a changing perception of the base issue, with a lengthy disagreement with Washington and eventual reneging on the campaign promise. By this time Hatoyama's popularity dropped to 25% and he resigned. Also resigning is Mr Ozawa, the Democratic Party's secretary-general. The indecisiveness and lack of leadership on issues made it difficult to sustain the electoral support which led to the Democratic party winning an overall majority, mainly to bring change for the post Liberal Democrat era.

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How diagnostic tests in portable toolskits, that patients can use themselves, are being developed at low cost in developing countries like China. This creates the kind of care appropriate for poor countries, where patients need something they can afford, and something that does not require repeat visits to doctors offices or clinics. Ustar Biotechnologies is a Chinese startup, that says it has the technology, costs that the founder says "no one can compete with," and affordable prices for poor countries. The sales of such diagnostic test portable devices or kits is expected to soar in coming years. Quimin You, the inventor and founder of Ustar, graduated in North America and worked with multinationals. His proposals for cheap diagnostic technologies were turned down by multinationals, who in their narrow focus saw these thechnologies undermining their existing products. Now Qimin is back in China with a startup that will do this.

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Greece's New Democracy party and Mr. Mitsotakis wins about 41% of the vote in Greece's elections. Syriza come is second with 21% and Pasok left party at 12%. Mitsotakis has increased Greece's growth to twice the eurozone rate, and cut migrants by 90% in line with EU policy. New Democracy party gets 145 seats in a 300 member parliament. The first round was conducted under proportional representation, only 60% of voters cast their vote. Mitsotakis will go for another election by July because in a second round the winner gets additional seats and this could let it form its own government. It sees this as needed to maintain policies of economic growth that have led to GDP growth at twice the rate of the eurozone. A surveillance scandal appears not to have affected the election results as Greeks opted for stability and growth. Mitsokatis himself put it this way- "This is not the time for experiments that lead nowhere." Greece was almost out of the eurozone when Syriza conducted referendums on the debt repayment that led to a chaotic situation, and then moved in the opposite direction in callous implementation when the Eurozone held firm. Mitsotakis said Greece needs to achieve an investment grade rating to lower borrowing costs. Worldwide the policy of delivering on growth is key to success in elections in democracies and in countries that are catching up after the colonialist phase. This is true for delivery of infrastructure and public services such as water and electricity, modern rail in India. It is true also for winning enough public support in countries like China that run parliamentary representation under one party the CCP. Strict immigration controls since 2015 reflect a similar policy pursued recently by Italy. Migrants have dropped by 90%. This is popular among Greeks. Looking back Merkel made a serious error in letting in migrants coming in from Hungary and Austria at the beginning of the migration inflows into the EU in 2015. Merkel came from former East Germany, the communist led GDR, and had no understanding of how harmful this would be for the European Union. In just one year by 2016 the misguided open migration policies of Merkel had led to her CDU party getting less votes than an anti immigration AfD party in her home state of Meckenburg. It led to anti-immigration movements in Europe that were used by parties in a self-serving way including in Britain that led to exit of Britain from the EU. It also led to a decade of austerity and a lost decade for the European Union as it permanently sidelined parties to the left such as Social Democrats that unknowingly or unwittingly ended up with the blame for the public's discomfort with lack of borders and migrants upsetting borders. In balance the right way to tackle this was to build stronger economies that supported workers and families in the EU, that then invested significantly in developing countries of Africa and Asia to help them catch up with modernization. Another failure in policy was the Bush-Obama Merkel policies in failed states such as Iraq and Afghanistan. There it was fundamentally important not to get involved in any way that committed US or EU's precious resources.  ...

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Incentives for automobile sales are increasing back up to about $3000 a year from $2000, as auto sales reach a level of 16.3 million annual sales in month of October 2014, according to KBB analysts.

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The U.S. Supreme Court said it will hear the Trump travel ban case. It said in an unsigned opinion that part of the request by the Trump administration to stay a lower court ruling would be granted. This part of the request relates to "foreign nationals who lack any bona fide relationship with a person or entity in the U.S.", only these people would be prevented from entering the country till the full case is heard by the Supreme Court. The revised travel ban related to 6 mostly Muslim countries for 90 days.

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Similiarities with Japan are in the exploding monetary base growth by the Fed, just as bank lending is dropping. And as in post bubble Japan of the 1990's, all of the behaviour says Wood invites legitimate comparisons with Japan. The government has lent, spent or guaranteed about $11 trillion to the financial sector broadly defined, because of letting financial institutions remain "too big to fail," whether Fannie Mae, AIG or Citigroup. None of them have been broken up. And this is similiar to the lack of bank cleanup in Japan with regulatory forbearance for years after the bubble. He thinks there is evidence that America is already in a Japanese style "liquidity trap."

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This article by Jim Carlton in the Wall Street Journal in 1998, shows a different side of Steve Jobs- a relentless hard driving manager, with sheer intensity and lack of patience with people who could not keep up with him, who can be arrogant and ride roughshod over employees. Supporters say he had the right intuition about decisions facing Apple, such as not cloning the Mac because it was already too late, closing Newton and refocussing the engineers on new devices, staying out of direct competition with the Wintel alliance and willingness to work with Microsoft to include the Office suite on the Mac. These moves came at a point where Apple was rapidly shrinking in the market, and was down to 2.6%, having lost half its share in the education market. Jobs dictatorial style came when Apple was in a chaotic situation without any clear direction, and the company was simply drifting into a steep decline, a style which was as one director put it, what Apple needed in that situation. Other aspects of Steve Jobs style included a penchant for secrecy. When the news of the folding of the Newton operation was leaked to the media, Jobs fired the head of the Newton group on the spot. At other times Jobs could back off, as when the launch of the G3 line of Macs was put off because of quality problems. The Jobs who returned to Apple in 1996-1997 comes across as a different Jobs- whose main motivation now was to show these "bozos" like Sculley who ousted him in 1985, and Amelio whom he replaced in 1998, how this (Apple's revival) is to be done. ...

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Former senior directors in the National Security Council in the Bush administration who talk about a a complete change in policy towards Iran- changing policies pursued all the way back to President Carter and Reagan and the Ayatollah Khomeini government. New policy would be implemented through hard work on diplomatic negotiations to bring Iran and the U.S. closer by tackling many of the differences. The U.S. recognizing the Iran government and its interests in the region and Iran cooperating on the nuclear isssue to safeguard against nuclear proliferation. What this means is that the portion of oil price increases that are a result of political volatility, with Iran as one of the sources of the political volatility, will be affected as the political volatility from this source is reduced significantly. Also note recent news about Petrochina signing an agreement with Iran to develop large Iranian oil fields. This was a different aspect of the oil price increase as the lack of modernization and investment to develop oil fields in countries like Iran, Venezuela and Mexico was a problem on the supply side. In the case of Iran there was a squeeze as demand was growing inside these countries at the same time as there wasn't enough investment in the oil fields. Chinese participation means that this problem is being addressed differently from that if the western oil majors were involved, but still being addressed. Over time this should be part of contributing factors that are becoming evident for less price pressures. However it should also be noted that these changes will take some time to work their way. ...

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The northern coastal city of Quingdao in China, popular with tourists for beaches and beer, received about 4.4 million tourists during a National day holiday of 8 days in October. A local hospital Quingdao Chest Hospital has now detected 9 cases of coronavirus. Local health officials now plan to test all 9 million residents of the city. The National Health Commission now has a working group in the city for epidemic prevention efforts. The city went ahead with its annual 3 week beer festival in August, with the event getting 1.2 million tourists. An outbreak in Quingdao could affect other cities in China as people travel back to their home cities.

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Few will believe Jill Biden taught aclass on the day of her husband's inauguration as U.S. president. Times change and anew president takes office. With him is Jill Biden a dedicated teacher for all her life. She has two masters degrees and a doctoral degree on the problems in higher education with dropping out in community colleges in the U.S.

As the U.S. goes back to the days of the Truman presidency in 1952 when it was all about rebuilding the country- education and access to education, healthcare and access to healthcare, infrastructure and funding the infrastructure from bridges, roads, airports, terminals. A new focus takes shape.

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Criticism in the media for Justin Trudeau's carefully cultivated image and reuse of the family brand. After three years in office it slowly comes apart with revelations of poor judgement and promotion of rock star kind of image, without substance behind it. Promotion of gender equality, indigenous people, and other ideas did not have the conviction behind it that is needed, and the lack of forthrightness becomes evident. In the last two years the images of popular presidents in the media have come apart in countries from Brazil to Canada, with skepticism even in the U.S. and Britain for former presidents and prime ministers who carefully cultivated their image or simply popular in the media.

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Peggy Noonan says in this WSJ article that Republicans should not shy away from telling president Trump that his erratic style is affecting the entire Republican agenda on taxes, infrastructure, and economic growth. This follows the firing of FBI Director Comey, the president's tweets about Comey as a "nut job" and the media coverage, followed by appointment of a Special Counsel. Her concern goes back to U.S. democracy. Her friends in Europe tell her the U.S. is having a nervous breakdown with the behaviour of the Trump administration. She tells Republicans to tell president Trump that democracy is a serious thing, not something to be toyed with.

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U.S. Federal Reserve officials are likely to take a wait and see approach based on incoming data following a likely rate increase in December 2018. Jerome Powell, Fed chairman and other members are likely to want to see how the economy is holding up from moves already taken. Under this evolving data dependent approach the Fed will step back from the predictable path of quarterly rate increases of the last 2 years.

Inflation has softened in the last quarter of 2018 with falling oil prices, reducing the Fed's sense of urgency. The dents in the stock market have not changed the situation of low unemployment and strong growth.

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The head of Oxfam International shows how tackling problems such as clean water, health, daycare, can improve participation of women and generate additional employment. A major problem worldwide particularly in the developing world is the lack of enough good jobs. Investing 2% of GDP in healthcare in African, Asian and Latin American countries can generate additional 1-3%  employment. Higher levels of investment are needed in health and other services that improve the quality of life.

About $170 billion in taxes not paid to governments of developing countries because of tax dodging leaves governments short of the funds needed to invest in public services, schools and hospitals.

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Pfizer's aggressive promotion of Chantix an antismoking drug. Article by Steinberg and Foulds in the Annals of Internal Medicine, suggesting treating smoking not like alcoholism but like diabetes with lifelong taking of medication like Chantix to curb craving for nicotine after cessation of smoking. The article may have been intended to promote Chantix to insurance companies to cover its use as a drug for treatment of diabetes type lifelong disease. It costs $100 a month for Chantix. The drug can cause depression and psychological disorders so the FDA is considering putting a black box warning on the drug for patients to take due care in using it. Chantix had USA sales of $680 million in 2007.

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Saudi global forum on oil price issues meets even as differnces emerge inside OPEC with Algeria, Iran and Venezuela opposed to increasing oil supplies and to a unilateral decision by the Saudis to increase production. After the Bush visit the Saudis increased production by 300,000 barrels a day or 3% to 9.45 million barrels a day. The bulk of the unused production capacity of 2 million barrels a day in OPEC is with the Saudis. The Algerians and the Saudis blame the price increases on futures speculation, lack of refining capacity to produce gasoline in the western countries, and geopolitical tension. For the Saudis and the Kuwaitis there is also resentment that they are asked to use their declining oil supplies while the USA is not allowing offshore drilling and drilling inside its borders to the extent that it could. Note that the ordinary Saudis lower and middle classes are not seeing much change in their lives as inflation is high, and the prices of food and other needs is reducing their purchasing power. Much of the oil price windfall is going into large projects to build aluminium and other plants, and to build new cities in the desert for a growing population, which effectively rechannels the money back to western countries who are actively involved in these projects. The projects themselves may produce value but it is still an open question whether this is the best way to invest this money. And the other serious question is whether this will come at the expense of future oil earnings as the world reduces its dependence on oil. The money is also spread very disparately across the Middle East, with neighboring countries like Yemen in southern Arabia without oil revenues suffering serious lack of development. The political structures like Saudi Arabia created after the first world war by western powers, itself may impede a proper distribution of commodity resource revenues across the region....

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As severe floods affect Pakistan about 3 million people are affected. The government is coming under strong criticism for lack of an organized relief effort. Muslim charities are filling in for the government in many places.

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The effects of a surge in income volatility for middle class families, many doing back office jobs and one parent losing a job since the recession of 2008. The difficulties of living from paycheck to paycheck.

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Adjusted for the 35,000 workers on strike at Verizon counted as unemployed, the 38,000 jobs figure in the government report is still considered quite low. Especially striking even as unemployment drops for May from 5.0% to 4.7% is that the drop is attributed to people dropping out of the work force. The average monthly gain for the March through May is 116,000 jobs well short of the 240,000 jobs added on average in 2014-2015. Average hourly earnings were up 0.2% in May and up 2.5% for the year. A widely accepted measure of unemployment that includes workers too discouraged to look for work or working part time because of a lack of full time job was at 9.7%. The labor force participation rate was at 62.6%.