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  Rachel Louis Ensign of the WSJ describes one moment in the Madison Square Garden Trump rally. In it Lutnick who Ensign describes as embracing controversial crypto finance business, and EV's Musk, say they plan to  create a Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE, also the name of a cryptocurrency. The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the central banks of China, India have warned of risks and dangers associated with Crypto currency which has no backing of the government. In one moment of the rally at Madison Square Garden as reported in the WSJ. Lutnick says- "How much do you think we can rip out of this wasted, $6.5 trillion Harris-Biden budget?”   “I think we could do at least $2 trillion,” Musk said.  Fitzgerald says "Yeah" A budget that the large part of includes spending for Social Security, Medicare, Defense, Education, and other departments of government. Howard Lunick is Donald Trump's head of Human Resources in 2024, for hiring people to run the government under his administration. In 1993 he was running the company Cantor Fitzgerald and taking his son to kindergarden when the bombings of the World Trade Center by terrorists killed 980 of the company's employees. Fitzgerald has contributed to Kamala Harris's campaign for US Senate in 2016, and calls himself a fiscal conservative and social liberal. In 2023 he was invited by Trump to help his campaign. Fitzgerald says the Democratic party left him with its immigration and other policies. This report by Rachel Louis Ensign in WSJ says Cantor Fitzgerald's company has embraced crypto, which larger companies have stayed away from. It says the WSJ has reported that a Hong Kong based owner of the stable coin tether used Cantor Fitzgerald to help oversee its $39 billion bond portfolio. Crypto finance is reported as playing a large part in 2024. Rachel Louis Ensign of the WSJ describes one moment in the Madison Square Garden Trump rally. In it Lutnick and Musk say they plan to  create a Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE, which is also the name of a cryptocurrency. The problem with cryptocurrency is that the US Federal Reserve does not support it, China, India and the European Central Bank disapprove of it and it is banned in China even though some of the crypto companies have connections with China. In one moment of the rally at Madison Square Garden as reported in the WSJ. Lutnick says- "How much do you think we can rip out of this wasted, $6.5 trillion Harris-Biden budget?”   “I think we could do at least $2 trillion,” Musk said.  Fitzgerald says "Yeah" ...

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Britain's prime minister Johnson has gained approval for 16 billion military buildup for naval and other buildup for the next 4 years. It was apparent for some time during the administrations from Blair through the financial crisis driven by banks under Cameron, that Britain had lost its resolve to have a strong military capability. This was evident in its handling of Hong Kong, from the transfer to its weak response to the situation in Hong Kong as participatory democracy failed in Hong Kong. During the period after the second world war Britain failed to bring participatory democracy in Hong Kong under its rule. Labour and Conservative administrations made no effort even as participatory democracy was brought to large parts of Asia and Africa through independence, following democratic elected legislatures in the period between two wars in India and Ceylon. No such effort was made in Hong Kong leading to questions about its own commitment to the principles when China introduced its own government in Hong Kong by changing legal structures.  Britain lacked the military capability and its partnership with France and the U.S. was also weaker because of other distractions from middle east conflicts and internal problems. This is now changing with the military capability buildup for the next 4 years. This is happening as France under Macron takes a new posture in its battle to defend the ideals of its Republic, and rebuild its manufacturing capabilities. ...

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This report in the Economist says that the days of double digit increases in the car market are a thing of the past. Future increases will be in the mid to high single digits, according to McKinsey consulting firm. China's economy is slowing and official estimates of GDP growth of 7% are described by experts as overstated, with real estimate of growth for the 1st quarter of 2015 by Citi, Conference Board and Capital Economics all below 5%, as reported in the WSJ. A sign of the change in the market is the need for higher use of incentives. The growth in the used car market offers buyers other alternatives. The new plants being added will increase production by 5.3 million light vehicles a year and come online in 2015 and 2016, this is in addition to the 22.8 million in sales in 2014. Average Chinese auto plants operate at 70% of capacity and the added volume will lower capacity utilization further. China's local automobile companies, with the exception of companies in joint ventures with foreign companies, have failed to gain customer loyalty. Many of these companies may be absorbed by foreign car makers or shut down as the industry consolidates. Foreign companies will find doing business less attractive as sales decline. ...

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Agreement was reached for the civilian nuclear deal between India and the U.S. in all night talks, just as President Bush landed in New Delhi. Bush is changing the whole dynamic of India/Pakistan and U.S. relations in a manner comparable to Nixon's visit to China and handshake with Mao. It will never be the same. Divide and rule policies inherited from the British colonization period which pitted India and Pakistan in relation to western interests is put into the dustbin of history. A new period in the relations of the western nations with Asia is beginning, Japan in the Meiji period, China with its opening after the Nixon visit, and India now after the Bush visit. See the speech to the Asia Society by Bush. In this sense Bush and Rice are making huge farreaching changes coinciding with the changes they see in Asia, in a way not even fully understood by themselves and much less by the American press and even less by the American public.

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A number of factors hitting at the same time Chinese factories in the south, in Guangdong province and the Pearl River delta. Currency exchange rates, stricter labor laws, eliminated government tax benefits and incentives, stricter pollution laws, high oilprices, and higher wages, all have combined to make the apparel and footwear factories in the south less profitable and harder to run. In recent years about 10% of the footwear makers in the province have closed operations. Manuy are smaller operations. About 10% of the 60,000 to 70,000 HongKong owned factories in the delta region will close in 2008. Not just apparel companies making products for HP and Apple have longer term plans to shift production to othcountries. Hon Hai Precision Manufacturing Company has said it will quintuple its planned investment in Vietnam to $5 billion. Apparel makers VF corporation which owns labels like North Face and Nautica says it takes 30 days from Cambodia compared to 20-25 days from China to get product on retail shlves so the advantage of China in this respect is also diminishing...

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The remarkable composition of the most vibrant immigrant filled city in the world, with 47% of the employed being immigrant and foreign born, mostly from developing countries such as Dominican, Chinese, Mexican, Guyanese, Jamaican, Ecuadorean, Haitian, Trinidad and Tobago, and Indian. The city's immigrant population is 3.1 million, 37% of the total population of 8.2 million. The report is written by Joseph Salvo, director of the population division of the City Planning Dept. and Arun Peter Lobo, deputy planning director. Dominicans are 380,000, Chinese 350,000, and Mexicans 186,000. During 2002 to 2011 Chinese population went up 34%, Mexicans 52% and Dominicans 3%. Queens has 1.09 million immigrants, half of that borough, Brooklyn 946,500 or 37% of the borough. The 37% immigrant foreign born population of the city compares to 27% for the New York Metropolitan region. Other interesting details- the growth in the Chinese population of about 89,000 in the city is greater than the entire population of Indians of 76,000, and the large growth in the Ecuadorean population by 22,000. The Indian population went up by 8000 or 12%. Indians in the New York Metropolitan region were in the upper income groups in neighborhood income comparable to people from UK, Germany and Israel, with Chinese being from lesser neighborhood income groups. Median income for Indians in the city was $84,000 compared to Chinese of $43,000, with 28% of Chinese immigrants having a college degree compared to 65% for Indians. This suggests immigrants from China are from poorer areas....

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China is moving to shift its economy in a new direction of self-reliance on domestic consumers and local investors. Mr. Xi calls it "domestic circulation." This also means less dependence on imported technologies and inward looking policies. As the pandemic has reduced demand in other countries and as the U.S. and West tighten controls on imports and introduce new restrictions, there is the sense that the entire policy has to shift quickly to dependence on domestic consumers and investors.

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Coal is expected to take up 36% of global net electricity generation by 2040, only slightly down from 36% in 2015, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. This is the prospect for the future as India increases use of coal and China continues its use of coal. This make clean coal power plants an important part of the solution combined with increasing use of solar, wind, and where safe nuclear energy.

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Nestle's plans to accelerate the sale of poor performing business as consumer preferences shift away from frozen foods and processed foods to fresh foods. It is planning to sell the Davigel frozen food business. Nestle is also going through a period of slowing sales in China. Sales growth of existing business is about 4% a year. The more competitive landscape in the processed food industry, and industry wide focus on efficiency to reduce costs, the rise in the Swiss Franc, make productivity increases critical, says CEO Brabeck-Lemathe.

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This WSJ editorial welcomes the change in India in the form of Modi bringing his executive experience in Gujarat state to the national level. It also points out the risks of Modi following a simple model of state capitalism pursued by China which also has political controls, and of the form in Brazil which invites crony capitalism and limited results. Better says the WSJ to take a new approach to satisfy the growing aspirations of young people who overwhelmingly supported Modi in the hope of better access to jobs and improved standards of living.

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The exceptional role played by US president Biden in ensuring the recovery of the US economy, reaching both low unemployment and bringing down inflation was made possible by the president's conviction that the bargaining power of labor and its share in the productive wealth of the economy needed to be restored. The chair of the president's Council of Economic Advisers Jared Bernstein points this out in his speech at the Petersen Institute of International Economics. Bernstein points out that the Philips Curve which shows the tradeoff between reducing unemployment and increasing inflation is essentially flat and the president was right to push for full employment at between 3.5-4%. In the post Reagan era America was reduced to trickle down economics as president Biden has said at every State of the Union leading to a situation where workers had lost their bargaining power. See this as a resilience factor R in the economy which if it falls below a certain point leads to the economy operating well below its potential with high unemployment and worker incomes depressed. This strong conviction of the president and the efforts of the Fed chairman Powell have helped America recover from the pandemic faster than Europe, China and other countries, and is opening a path to meet the challenges of the future including infrastructure development and overcoming climate change, and meeting needs in healthcare and education, ease of living. ...

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During several year of environmental disasters, and the pandemic, where can one find the tranquillity one so much desires? One place is music, says classical pianist Maria Joao Pires. "We have so many emergencies to deal with in our society now, things like the breakdown of the family, environmental disasters. We have to ask, 'How can the way we make music be changed, to help people to face these things?’" Of the quiet space in her music she brings aspects of the ancient ways of Buddhism- her father lived in China and Japan. She has studied Buddhism which in some ways comes through in her music, as she says-  "the breathing, the space and the quietness of the space." Pires dresses with simplicity that "puts my mind at ease." She is for music in more informal relaxed settings and not the formal orchestra settings and piano recitals.  She likes easy-to-wear fabrics, like hemp or cotton. "I don't wear makeup and my hair is always cut short. I only wear flat shoes. That way my mind is at ease." She was born in Lisbon 23 July 1944, with her first recital at age 5, and studied at the Lisbon Conservatory.   ...

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EV sales worldwide in March 2024 went up by 30%. New battery technologies are making EV cost competitive with combustion engine cars. This transition is nearer than we thought. Kurt Kelty of GM who worked on Tesla battery technology for 11 years says “When we reach cost parity with internal combustion engine vehicles, I think that’s one big milestone. When you get there, then you’re really going to see the transition happen very quickly—and we’re not that far away from it.” The EV industry continues to make progress even as the industry has slowed with the new government not behind it with incentives. GM is setting its sight on 2028 and is investing in bringing costs down with new battery technology. It is new battery technology that enabled BYD in China to increase production and sales. In 2024 GM hired a Tesla engineer Kurt Kelty with 11 years experience to lead the effort to reduce cost and increase the power and duration of batteries. Kelty really believes in the EV revolution.“I’m a firm believer. Switching to an electric powertrain means better performance, less maintenance, more space inside the vehicle, a lower center of gravity and a higher crash rating. Evolution away from fossil fuels is unstoppable.”   ...

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A 1000 mile windswept coastline and 300 days of sunshine make the southern African nation of Namibia an attractive location for green hydrogen projects. Green hydrogen is produced using wind and solar energy. There is a 50 fold increase in green hydrogen projects in just the last 12 months globally. The costly technology needs many projects to get to lower costs through technological advances. Germany is doing a pilot project in Luderitz, Namibia. Luderitz will need a deep water project to ship the fuel out.   Renewable wind and solar energy is used to distil the hydrogen atoms in water, as opposed to the currently used method to maky hydrogen from fossil fuels, known as gray hydrogen, or blue hydrogen if the emissions from fossil fuels are captured. Namibia is chosen as its natural advantages could bring the costs down faster. Other locations being adopted are Morocco, Australia, and Chile. The two sites in Namibia had bids from Africa's Sasol, Australia's Fortescu, Germany's Enertrag and Hyphen Hydrogen.  Hyphen Hydrogen won the bid for the two sites. It says the $9.4 billion project is targeting 300,000 metric tons of green hydrogen production a year from 5 gigawatts of renewable energy generation capacity by 2030. "Now all of a sudden the desert has become valuable," says Namibia's finance minister Mr. Shiimi. Additional asset for Namibia is that it ranks highest after Cape Verde in Africa for transparency, creating ease of doing business. It is ranked 57 in Transparency International rank of transparency for countries in 2020. China is 78, India 86 in rank. Namibia is putting up $45 million for the feasibility study on the project with the sesert scrub land an hour from Luderitz, once a diamond mining town on a rocky Atlantic coastline in 1900. Two sites are located in the area each 675 square miles. South Africa is severely short of energy supplies and a pipeline is being considered to take the Namibian hydrogen to South Africa. The African region is expanding in renewable energy. Lake Turkana Wind Power Project in Kenya provides 17% of installed electricity capacity in Kenya with 365 wind turbines.     ...

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India's economy has overcome the challenges posed by demonetization and the implementation of the GST tax that slowed growth to 5.7% for much of 2017. The growth rate increased to 7.2% in the last quarter of 2017. The GST tax change that created a single market is likely to increase growth. Growth of 8-10% matching China's growth rate in the last two decades is possible. Faster economic growth is needed to meet the need for more jobs, as 1 million new job entrants enter the job market each month. Indian Railways received 20 million applications for 100,000 new jobs showing the need for new jobs cannot be met at current growth rates. A major problem is the condition of the banking sector with bad loans affecting ability of banks to lend. A planned bailout of the banking sector and a new bankruptcy code are efforts to address this problem. Governance in the banking sector is also a problem that needs to be addressed. The price of oil is now up to $65 a barrel, increasing the cost to India which now faces a larger oil import cost.   ...

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In a time of relative prosperity in the first months after the boom years uptil 2007, in April 2008 to be specific, it is strange but true that food crisis is overshadowing the credit and housing crisis in the USA. At the G7 meeting, World Bank president, Zoellick, made a passionate statement about the crisis that is developing across Asia and developing countries elsewhere as food prices go through the roof. The World Bank and the IMF are stepping in, but the focus at the G7 meeting was on the US dollar and the world financial system. There have been serious problems about food shortages in Philippines, Indonesia, Haiti and Egypt, and even in other countries like China and India the increase in the price of rice by 146% makes for a serious food crisis. See the link to this.

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The Ministry of Commerce in China conducts anti-monopoly reviews and sets rules for which divestments need to occur in merger arrangements. In the Pfizer merger with Wyeth, the Ministry required Pfizer to sell a Chinese swine vaccine business to Harbin Pharmaceutical Group.. The concern- Pfizer could control 50% of the swine vaccine business in China with some 500 million pigs. Five other merger and acquisition transactions have come under review. Coca-Cola's $2.4 billon acquisition for a Chinese juice maker is stalled. Novartis and Eli Lilly showed interest but the Ministry of Commerce preferred to steer things to a Chinese player. In future it is expected that rules will favor up and comig local companies over large foreign companies.

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Growing need for commodity metals, iron ore, copper, and crude oil as Japan grows at 2-3% a year. Japan's economy is not growing as fast as China's, but it is twice the size of China, and it is the 3rd largest consumer of oil. It has no energy sources within Japan. About 13 nuclear plants are under development. It is highly energy efficient and developing alternative fuels. Japan has an aging population so the longer term trend is for a decline in energy consumption.

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The Chinese market for medical care is growing. China will spend $125 billion on a three year plan to boost medical care. This means funding 31,000 new hospitals by 2012. Medical equipment market is estimated to grow at 13.5% a year to $15.5 billion in 2012, according to Philips Electronics. And Credit Suisse sees the pharma market up from $44 billion in 2008 to $110 billion in 2015. GE is designing inexpensive imaging equipment for fast growing rural markets, with cost at 10% of urban markets.

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German elections results in graphics 2025, shown in Deutsche Welle DW.  As in US in Germany 2024 more women and university educated in SPD, Greens more basic education and men in AfD, CDU. People over 60 voted for SPD and CDU, 20-23% voted for AfD in 25-50 year age groups.

The deindustrialization of the US and Germany and France has led to this situation, as jobs were outshored to China under Merkel and Schroeder. Fewer opportunities for people with a basic education and the indifference of governments to these disadvantaged groups under Merkel and Schroeder. The other change is that in Germany in the Eastern parts of the country around Dresden, Jena, Leipzig in Eastern Germany the AfD is now dominant, except for Berlin where the Left and SPD are dominant.

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Mokoto Rich of the NYT discusses sentiment in Japan as the North Korean nuclear program advances. A majority of Japanese surveyed do not favor preemptive strikes. Japan's Constitution only allows acting in self-defense. Experts say Japan has to consider what it would do for missiles flying over Japanese territory in the direction of the U.S. A Japanese government ruling in 1956 allows acting in self-defense in a broader way. Yet the public in Japan is not sure what is the best way to respond. Also to be considered is how this will be seen in South Korea and China- would Japan taking a greater defensive role and building its own anti-ballistic missile system defenses lead to greater tensions in the region.