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The Peronist candidate Alberto Fernandez wins Argentina's election with 48% support. Mr. Macri's economic policy led to mismanagement of the economy, and recession, high inflation. Mr. Macri took on $100 billion in foreign debt and had to turn to the IMF for a $57 billion bailout. The shift in administration happens as the peso tumbles. By lifting capital controls in 2016 when the official rate was 10 to the dollar Mr. Macri shifted direction but failed to manage this in a prudent way leading to a jump in the foreign debt. By the second half of 2018 this policy led to the peso falling to 45 to the dollar and another drop by mid 2019 to about 60 to the dollar. The central bank has burned about $22 billion or a third of the central bank reserves to defend the peso, including $4 billion only last week. A third of this decline in reserves is due to withdrawals as capital controls were reimposed., the remainder due to interest on debt and bank interventions in currency markets to defend the peso. Customers are now limited to $100 in withdrawals leading to demand in the black market pushing the rate to 75 pesos to the dollar. Argentina is no stranger to these crises, yet they repeat every 10-15 years. The earlier Peronist administration of Mr. Nestor Kirchner came in when there was economic collapse in 2003 and had to suspend debt payments as a last resort. Negotiations were begun with lenders only after 2007 when Mr. Kirchner's wife Christina Kirchner assumed office. She won the election in 2011 but was defeated in the 2015 election by Mr. Macri, and reelected in 2019 as vice president running under her former chief of staff Mr. Alberto Fernandez. The Peronists are a socialist party and restored a degree of stability to the economy, limiting foreign debt and managing the economy with a rebound in commodity prices such as soyabeans exported by Argentina to meet growing demand in China. By 2015 the country appeared ready for a change, but Mr. Macri's austerity policies and mismanagement of the debt led to a repeat of earlier crises with high inflation and collapsing peso, hitting working class Argentines.    Argentina has a long history of alienation with IMF loans with policy strings attached for austerity spending, starting in 1957.  About 58% of the people who voted Macri into office opposed turning to the IMF in May 2018 after interest rates were raised to 40% by the central bank to stem a drop in the peso. The IMF loan this time was a shorter duration loan on better and was supposed to help Mr. Macri stabilize the economy and its cash and payments position. The jump in foreign debt including issue of dollar denominated bonds, lack of caution and prudence in managing the finances, lack of currency controls, drop in foreign investment by 2019, and the fall in commodity prices from the commodity boom years especially soyabeans, combined to create another collapse in Argentina. It was thought that the 2003 crisis that hit the working class and poor hardest was behind it once and for all. Yet only 15 years later the country is in a similar mess and hardships, showing that prudent management of finances, maintaining social programs to support the middle and weaker segments, and ways to create sustainable growth from within, are still the major problems facing not just Argentina, but also Brazil, Chile and other nations of Latin America.   ...

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According to a report from China's Environment Ministry for the first half of 2013, only 4 cities met the acceptable air quality standards. The national grade 2 standard in China is for 35 micrograms per cubic meter for levels of airborne particulate matter smaller than 2.5 micrograms in diameter. WHO standard is for 25 micrograms per cubic meter in a 24 hour period. The 4 cities with acceptable air qualty out of 74 cities monitored by the Environment Ministry are Lhasa in Tibet, island city Haikou, coastal town Zhoushan, and Pearl River Delta city of Huizhou.

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In his State of the Union speech president Trump was off on some points such as how many jobs were created, how good the economy is, and on on safety of cities El Paso and San Diego after border walls and fencing, according to the WSJ. El Paso was the second safest city of twenty similar sized cities in the U.S. before the border wall with Mexico, and continued to be that way after the wall was built over that section. San Diego has seen 91% drop in border apprehensions over a decade after fencing the border but this has not meant a discernible impact on people crossing illegally.  Mr. Trump was right that customs duties increased by $13 billion in the third quarter of 2018 after placing tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods. Wages are growing faster for manufacturing and construction workers than service occupations, as Trump claimed. On the growth of the economy the economy GDP grew by 3.5% in 2018 before slowing down by the end of the year. India and China's growth in GDP is much faster. Growth in jobs was at the pace in the first 2 years of the Trump administration in some 2 year periods of the Obama administration, and much faster in manufacturing in the 1990's, says the WSJ.   ...

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USA car sales drop 37% in January 2009 over same period in 2008. Sales at GM dropped 49%, at Ford 40% and Chrysler 55%, at Toyota 32%, at Honda 28%, at Nissan 30%. Subaru and Hyundai saw sales increases. Analysts at IHS Global Insight say the stimulus package may help prevent things from getting much worse, but it would be wrong to count on the stimulus package for a pickup in sales in the second half of this year. This is ominous for the Detroit car companies as they seek government help to avert bankruptcy. Chrysler is hoping to make tieup with Fiat, but it will be a year before Fiat cars make it to the US and longer for its cars to be made in the US, so it is not clear what will happen in 2010. Ford's economists think the market is nearing bottom, but if that is not the case it may prove risky for Ford.

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Falsifying business records is a misdemeanor in New York, only a second crime turns it into a felony. WSJ Editorial Board asks the question what is the second crime in the Trump indictment that turns a misdemeanor into a felony under New York law. District Attorney Alvin Bragg says "under New York election law it is illegal to promote a candidacy by unlawful means." With the hush money payments Mr. Trump is seen as promoting his candidacy unlawfully, and the payments themselves as illegally done campaign contributions. Another aspect of law is that the situation was not brought up in 2017, yet is perceived very differently in 2023. Much more is known in 2023 than in the early days of  the election campaign in 2017.

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A decade of warnings were ignored by Geran regulatory agency BaFin about wrongdoings at Wirecard. The company went bankrupt after about $2 billion was missing in accounts that did not exist in the Philippines.This comes after the VW emissions cheating scandal, and the troubled Deutsche bank behaviours leading to fines, showing Germany's poor record in action against corporate wrongdoing. Germany's Ba Fin repeatedly played down the questions about wrongdoing, kicked the ball to other agencies, and delayed examining the Wirecard accounts, says this WSJ report. A parliamentary investigation is being called for by opposition parties. In January 2019 Financial Times reported fraud allegations at Wirecard Singapore, yet Angela Merkel supported its acquisition of a company in China in talks in 2019.

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India's roadmap for the first of 25 years to 2047 shows key goals of Inclusive Development and Empowered youth, women and all sections of society in growth. It builds on the work since 2014 of Leaving No One Behind.  Sab Ka Saath, Sab Ka Vikas, Sab Ka Viswas, Sab Ka Prayas remain the key ideas behind it. With All, For Everyones progress, Confidence of All, Efforts of All. To provide essential nutrition as the floor foodgrains were provided to 800 million for 28 months and extended to Jan. 1, 2024, investing $31 billion. Building also on having achieved the doubling of per capita income to 2 lakh rupees, about $2500 since 2014, ensuring better quality of living and life of dignity for all citizens.

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South Africa's economic growth is expected to be 3.5% in 2011, foreign direct investment is lower, yet the rand which should be closer to eight to the dollar is trading at about 7 to the dollar. The rand appreciated 12% against the dollar in 2010. A lower level for the rand should boost growth to 4% say experts. In recent months net capital outflows - foreigners selling a net 6.6 billion rand or $950 million of bonds and a net 2.3 billion of equities- is helping reverse the high value of the rand. Government policies relaxing the amount residents can take out of the country- allowing 4 million rand to be taken offshore each year- is also intended to weaken the rand.

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Fitch Ratings reports that 10 of the largest U.S. money market funds have combined assets of $755 billion, and as of May 2011, half of these assets are in instruments issued by European banks. These assets have been held for 5 years. In the event of a crisis it is feared that the funds will withdraw from the European market. Money market fund holdings for the ten largest funds show that no European bank has more than 7% of its short term funding from these money market funds, according to Fitch. A combined withdrawal would affect global credit markets.

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The US midwestern states depend entirely on imports from Canada of as much as 3.5 million barrels a day. In 2018 the Canadian government bought an unfinished pipeline from Alberta to British Columbia, the Transmountain pipeline for $18 billion. This is now finishing completion in 2024. For years the pipelines bringing oil from the north to midwest states reduced the cost differential between Canadian crude and US crude to $18 for a price of $47 a barrel. The Transmountain pipeline will take some of that oil and move it to British Columbia ports where it can loaded onto tankers heading to Asia. This will increase the cost of Canadian crude into the midwest and be reflected in prices at the pump.

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Millenials group ages 18-49 who have decided to have zero children post pandemic is growing, as shown in this story in The Washington Post- with many graphs about what is really happening. A 2021 Pew Research poll shows 44% of childless adults ages 18-49 saying they do not want kids, or are not likely to have kids. This is up from 37% in 2018. And 56% of these people simply give no reason, just that- no kids. The difficult economic environment is part of this, so is the difficulty in raising kids that do better than their parents, the huge resources needed to raise good kids, all leading to this view among millenial women.

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Fisher and Taub in NYT give a brief history of Venezuelan politics and government since the 1950's to help readers understand today's economic and political crisis under president Maduro. How did a country with huge oil resources end up with depleted cash reserves to the point of creating shortages of basic goods on supermarket shelves, how did inflation reach over 700%, and how did the economy contract by over 10%, by some estimates close to 20%, in 2016? Venezuela's story is a reminder that populist movements do not hold the answer to political or economic problems, as they create corruption of their own as new groups of people try to perpetuate themselves in power, and new economic problems as they try to win favor with their own support base. Also through economic mismanagement worsened by economic changes such as oil prices or some other adverse development in the global economy. Internal divisions means the capacity of the country to respond is weakened. Brazil has shown the problems of corruption with new political groups and the weakening of government finances. Venezuela is the extreme example of how a lot can go wrong over time after the initial response to a new populist group is positive as it was in Venezuela in 1998, even with advantage of rich natural resources. Change that fragments a country and polarizes a country instead of pulling together the country's human talent around a program that all groups agree to support, is a signal of future problems. The rule of law is an essential component not just of democracy, but of economic development and progress of any country. These are the lessons of Venezuela for today. Economic crises in the eighties led to loss of public confidence in the two main political parties which alternated in power since the founding of democracy in 1958. In 1998 a military officer named Chavez won the election on the platform of returning power to the people and reducing corruption. Chavez reforms initially were popular. Popular protests in 2002 led to the military briefly taking power before returning power back to Chavez. This led to Chavez moving further towards consolidating power leading to a polarization of society. The oil company workers who went on strike were fired replaced by Chavez supporters and oil funds were diverted to popular programs. In the process Chavez isolated Venezuela from the world economy, leading to lack of foreign investment, and Venezuela falling behind other countries in Latin America, even though it had large oil resources. To retain control of the streets this report shows Chavez helped organize the colectivos or local supporters organized as vigilante groups, which has led to further polarization. Corruption in the military and with the colectivos has led to power being fragmented between different groups. The oil companies fund reserves were depleted by corruption depriving Venezuela of an essential cushion as oil prices dropped. Chavez died of health problems with Maduro winning the election in April 2013 by 50.6% of the vote. The parliamentary elections led to the opposition parties winning by a landslide in December 2015. The current problems with daily street protests stems from the economic crisis, with inflation as high as 700% and shortages of basic goods, the economy declining by over 10% in 2016. The uncontrolled printing of money has fueled rampant inflation.The efforts by president Maduro to nullify the powers of Congress in an effort to control the country and override Congress, has worsened the discontent with the government.   ...

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Ukraine president Poroshenko tells a news conference in Kiev in September 2014 - "the doors of the E.U. are open to us; I am absolutely convinced of this. Events in Kiev and Brussels gave us a firm hope, a belief, that we will soon get the prospect of E.U. membership." Poroshenko plans to repeal a 2010 law barring Ukraine from membership in any military or political alliance, so that it can apply to join NATO. Clearly Mr. Putin's remark to EU president Barroso that Russia could reach Kiev in 2 weeks has stiffened resolve all over Eastern Europe from Lithuania to Poland, and changed perception in Germany and France about Mr. Putin. The German response from Merkel was to have "a consistent presence" in the Baltic Republics, so that the consequences of threats in Eastern Europe would be made clear to Mr. Putin. Poroshenko says he is in constant communication with Putin about settlement of the situation in eastern Ukraine, showing the costs recognized by all sides to prolonging the conflict....

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Juleanna Glover points to the need for financing of the Kurdistan regional government in Iraq as the central government in Baghdad has failed to make payments to the KRG for its share of national oil income. The KRG would receive 17% of Iraq's national oil income under negotiated agreements, but only $2 billion of $12 billion owed to KRG has been transferred in 2015. The Kurds also have to support 1.8 million refugees from Syria and Iraq with the ongoing civil war. The World Bank predicts a shortfall in funding for KRG of $1.5 billion in 2015, and it needs a $2.4 billion bridge loan. Peshmarga forces it is reported have not been paid for 3 months even as the Kurds have borne a disproportionate share of the burden in the war.

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Republicans and Democrats decided to tackle the U.S. fiscal cliff in several steps. The first step for the Bush tax cuts to be extended to single earners with income under $400,000, and couples earning under $450,000 was part of the agreement reached Jan. 1, 2013. Republicans see this as protecting small business owners who generate jobs in the U.S. economy. Democrats see this as progress in taxing the wealthy to reduce spending cuts in other programs. As expected the deal was reached between Senate colleagues Republican Mitch McConnell and former Democratic senator and Vice President Joe Biden, as rapport is missing in the relationship between Speaker Boehner and president Obama. The $110 fiscal cliff spending cuts on entitlements and defence will be postponed for 2 months till early March under the deal. Debt ceiling will not be raised and negotiations will be needed again by the end of Feb. 2013 to raise the debt ceiling. By March 27, 2013 short term funding measures lapse. Republicans see accepting tax cuts on the wealthy as a way to remove this issue in future negotiations to focus on spending cuts needed to improve U.S. finances. ...

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A French Appeals Court upholds a 2019 verdict of penalty on Swiss bank UBS for helping wealthy clients in France evade taxes. The court ordered UBS to pay $2 billion, reducing the earlier penalty from $5 billion.

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This editorial from the Times after the New Hampshire Republican primary- in which rival candidates attacked Bain Capital- says that leveraged buyouts by private equity firms like Bain Capital were only one of the causes of the growing income inequality, and by no means the principal cause. And they had little to do with the subprime mortgage crisis that led to the financial crisis and recession in 2008, which aggravated the income inequality. A serious factor was the lowering of wages in manufacturing in competition with lower wage countries in a globalized economy and the decline of good manufacturing jobs over three decades. The increase in low wage jobs in the retail and service sector with the decline in manufacturing did little to arrest the growing gap in wages.

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Glassman cites Ronald Reagan who once said economists are people who look at things in practice and then see if they can prove this in theory. He co-authored a book on "Dow 36,000" in 1999. What happened and why? He correctly says the Dow is up to 12,000- and this only after Fed chairman Bernanke's $600 billion quanitative easing on top of low to zero interest rate policies after the 2008 crisis- in the 12 years since. So what happened? Glassman says what he did not account for is the huge decline in the prospects for the U.S. economy, with Congressional Budget Office estimates of 2% growth over the next 70 years, compared to the 3.5% growth in the first 50 years of the 20th century. A lot goes go into this, including the debt buildup, the lack of investment in human capital and K-12 education. The other is the huge volatility in stock returns, and the "discontinuous" risks stemming from things like the home price crash, terrorist 9/11 attack and other such developments. He says he is tired of telling investors to hold on in the face of such huge volatility and uncertainty. He advises a cautious strategy, a pull back from stocks to reduce the downside on returns and a smaller allocation to stocks....

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In parts of Mexico sugary softdrinks are easier to access than clean tap water, says this report in DW.com. This is a problem that existed in Mexico for many years. Amy Guthrie in the WSJ August 28, 2013, described the problem in -Health Problem over Soda Flares in Mexico- which was shown in Lyrarc.com in 2013, showing the US, Chile, Mexico and Argentina with high consumption of sugary softdrinks and high rates of diseases related to this. Mexico's government has made efforts to increase awareness about the risks and dangers of overuse and Bloomberg philanthropy has made efforts to increase awareness. Yet the problem has persisted. The risks are high for countries such as India, China, Vietnam. One ad in Mexico City subways showed 20 ounce sugary softdrink bottle and asked "Would you take 12 teaspoonfuls of sugar?" Mexico passed the US in countries with high obesity rate over 100 million people in 2013. Higher all cause mortality was shown in a European study of 451,000 people for people drinking more than 2 glasses of sweetened softdrinks a day, with data collected between 1992-2000 and supporting public health campaigns limiting the use of such sweetened softdrinks. ...

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A decade after a precipitious decline in its stock price during the global financial crisis of 2008 stemming from its GE Capital unit, GE struggles with faltering stock price and poor performance stemming from other strategy errors in its core infrastructure business.  GE Capital is being shut down. Now one of its subprime lending units is likely to be put into bankruptcy protection. WMC Mortgage had losses under its GE Capital parent  of $1 billion during the financial crisis in one year alone. It has since faced a series of legal settlements and investigations. GE Capital has turned out to be a poor investment and a huge distraction for management for a company which considered its core business as infrastructure related.

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The U.S. Labor Department reports employers added seasonally adjusted 257,000 jobs in January 2014. Figures for November and December are adusted upwards by 147,000. About 1 million new jobs were created since November 1, 2014.

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A Wall Street Journal poll of economists shows that China's growth is slowing to around 8%. Because the economy grew rapidly in the first half of 2010, the full year growth is expected to be 11.1%. China's central bank and the government see the slowdown as a positive indication in an effort to reduce the risks to the Chinese economy from a real estate price bubble. Rising debt of local governments after the stimulus encouraged lending by state owned banks to get projects started quickly, and led to unsustainable growth levels and real estate speculation.

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Since taking over Italy's right wing Northern League Party in 2013, Matteo Salvini, 44 years old, has improved the party's appeal by appealing to parts of Italy's north beyond its base in Lombardy, Piedmont and Veneto. The Milan native called for greater autonomy for the northern region, and even secession, supporting the northerners view that tax money from the prosperous north was being wasted on the poorer regions in the south. He also entered into an alliance with Silvio Belusconi's Forza Italia party. He took a hard line on immigration. Salvini has called for a train service for Milanese only, to draw attention to immigrants from non-EU countries. The head of the Five Star Movement  Party of Beppe Grillo, is Luigi Di Maio, who has called for ending the "taxi service" that brings to Italy migrants stranded on small boats in the Mediterranean. The shift in sentiment in Italy towards immigration has helped parties on the right as it has done in Italy and to a lesser extent in Germany with AfD's larger presence in the German parliament. ...

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Provo, Utah university shooting of Charlie Kirk on campus September 10, 2025. It has aroused the whole nation because it happened on campus while talking to students and debating issues. Kirk was founder of Turning Point a student focused organization that has worked on campuses all across the US since 2016 for debating alternative ways of tackling problems facing the US on issues relating to the Border, Jobs, cost of living and immigration.