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Todd Schlanger, senior investment strategist at Vanguard, is cited in this WSJ report saying the 60-40 strategy makes sense now because of lower stock valuations and higher bond yields. His forecast for Vanguard for a 60% stocks and 40% bonds globally diversified strategy is for a annualized 10 year median return of 5.4%. Schlanger says 60-40 strategy used to be a bellwether, and that strategy is an enduring strategy.

Stock valuations that Schlanger says are lower are reflected in the S&P 500 which is trading at 18.2 times its expected earnings over the next 12 months, down from 21.6 at the start of 2022. The 10 year average is 17.5.

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The twin banners of Science and Modernization of the May 4, 1919 movement kept high through the last 100 years are revived at the 20th Chinese CCP Party Congress in 2022. Xi Jinping used the phrase "self reliance in science and technology" five times as the US and EU gradually close the doors to shipping out advanced technologies to China, and limit flows of capital to concentrate on development at home.  A new section was added to his report for "Science and Education."

Xi told the Congress- "We must regard science and technology as our primary productive force, talent as our primary resource, and innovation as our primary driver of growth."

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The term "lazy girl job" is a misnomer because it refers to work life balance choices made by women who prefer to do remote work, avoid micro manager bosses, and pay attention to health and exercise, lifestyle choices. Being able to take a walk midday and take a bike ride in the evening at 5.00 pm with work cut off times is a preference for many young people. It follows the trend of quiet quitting where lifestyle choices and health take precedence over existing flawed ways of work that ignore family, health and exercise needs. The pandemic has created a new awareness about what is important in life and a new set of priorities. Young people are following their heart.

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The first presidential debate with Clinton and Trump is moderated by Lester Holt. The debate included an exchange on Trump's tax returns, policing in inner cities, and national security. The debate was broadcast by all television stations and was watched by over 100 million viewers. Trump made three times the interruptions made by Clinton. The birther issue raised by Trump also came up, and was cited as a "hurtful lie" by Clinton as it persisted long after the birth certificate information was seen by the public. In one exchange Clinton told Trump when he referred to all the infrastructure that had not been built, that one of the reasons was he had not payed taxes.

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Israel's ambassador to the U.S., Michael Oren, describes Iran's efforts to make weapons grade nuclear material, escalating the enrichment process from 3.5% to 20%. He says Iran now has 225 pounds of 20% uranium and 11,000 pounds of 3.5%, enough for 5 nuclear bombs, and points out that 20% uranium can be enhanced to weapons grade in weeks. During the initial negotiations the P5+1 nations demanded suspension of enrichment acitivites at a time when the enrichment process was at 3.5%, and transfer of stockpiles abroad. As negotiations dragged on Iran escalated to 20% enrichment. current demands of the P5+1 are for cessation of 20% enrichment and removal of the 20% stockpile, and closing the facility at Qom, as a first step. This has been rejected by Iran. In this op-ed Oren says Israel alerted the world about the Iranian nuclear program 20 years ago, and as this has continued to what it is today, Israel's view is that much of that time was wasted and the window for international efforts to cease and dismantle Iran's nuclear program is almost shut. ...

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Grove's take on what is going on in Silicon Valley, and interviews at startups and Labs like the Almaden Research Center by Steve Hamm. Grove is especially infuriated by the concept of an"exit strategy". Intel never had an exit strategy he says. It takes time to build important companies over along period and a different kind of attitude, and resilience. Steve Hamm visits all parts of the Silicon Valley to understand what is going on. Big companies won't come up with the next big development and startups aren't measuring up to the task. Yes things are happening in the area of electric vehicles, solar energy and green energy. HP sees more productive effort coming from software development than hardware advances. Overall short term thinking and risk aversion dominates, and Grove and Hamm do not see the kind of paranoid attitude and worrying nature and resilience, that got Intel to go back and develop new products and look for new opportunities after taking a beating from the Japanese, who at one time took over Intel's existing markets. ...

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NYT editorial says Bush Administration thinks it has time on its side in the housing foreclosure crisis but they are wrong. The White House has not come up with a clear strategy or what needs to be done as the way forward from here. And this it says wil prove costly. Because there is no clear direction coming out of the White House the Congress also has not been able to articulate a clear strategy with near unanimous support. Alt-A loans called Alt A for alternative to grade A prime loans are scheduled to reset to higher payments starting 2009 with losses mounting in 2010 and 2011. Alt A losses are projected to reach $150 billion but his is based on price declines following a stable pattern, but if housing prices take a steep decline then losses could go much higher causing a great deal of instability to the financial system, which will be harder to fix at that time. NYT is urging the Bush administration to wake up to the impending crisis.

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The Tax Plan of Jeb Bush, with the help of advisors Martin Feldstein and Kevin Warsh, lowers the top personal tax rate from 40% (including surcharges) to 28%, and reduces the corporate tax rate from 30% to 20%. The plan is designed to jumpstart the economy for higher growth by increasing business investment and incentives. Businesses are allowed to deduct 100% of new investment immediately. The idea is to increase capital investment so that benefits also go to workers in higher wages. The Bush economic advisors see 50% of the corporate tax burden as affecting workers wages- average compensation would go up by $2750 a year by 2020 and $6200 by 2025 in 2015 dollars. Companies can pay a one time 8.75% tax on money earned and held overseas, paid over 10 years- about $2.1 trillion of this income held overseas can be added to the pool available for business investment. As proposed earlier by Feldstein the itemized deductions including mortgage interest can be taken only upto 2% of adjusted gross income, suggestions during the reform effort not taken up by Obama. To reduce the excessive use of leverage in business decisions the field is levelled for use of debt and equity by removing the deduction for business interest expense. This editorial says that by putting in the details, which political leaders tend to leave vague on specific figures, Jeb Bush and his advisors have taken a crucial step forward. This it says, shifts the debate from current shallow posturing to how America can lay the groundwork for the kind of growth needed to help increase wages, increase economic growth to higher levels, and preserve America's position in the world....

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Italy is investing the $225 billion of EU funds to modernize its economy under Mario Draghi. Draghi has shown in his first year that he can spend the funds wisely and invest in areas of the economy that need investments most. In the past year he has tackled problems including the slowness of the judicial system, modernizing an inefficient bureaucracy, and liberalizing wide parts of of the services sector. Draghi plans to invest EU grants in digital and physical infrastructure, education, environmental protection, and other needs for the long term. Before being chosen to lead the government Draghi was head of the Italian Treasury and central bank. He then headed the European Central Bank helping southern European countries tackle the debt crisis at a difficult time when Germany under Merkel pursued strict austerity policies and insisted on these policies for all eurozone countries. This report in WSJ shows the prevailing opinion in Italy is strongly in favor of Draghi staying on as prime minister till 2023 because of the confidence people inside Italy and in the European Union have in his leadership and discipline for making the investments to modernize Italy. Draghi told school children in Rome that "the most important thing is what you are doing right now," showing he understands the importance of providing Italy with the leadership it needs today.  ...

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A new state government in Bihar state, India, takes shape with Nitish Kumar as Chief Minister and 2 Deputy CM's from the BJP party. Bihar is the second largest state in India after Uttar Pradesh, with Maharashtra the third, West Bengal fourth making up the top four by population each with over 100 million people. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat make up the top 7 states each of these three with about 75 million population. Rapid economic development depends on state governments working with the federal government on investment, technologies and effective governance. Gujarat and Maharashtra form an industrial core for India with investment increasing in Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh which forms the rural interior in the Ganges plains. In contrast to China where industrial development is state driven led by the CCP in a centralized form embedded in the complete authority of the central government, India has to achieve this through the democratic process based on delivery of infrastructure projects and standards of living. Much of this depends on the combined effort of federal and state governments ,with seven of these eight states having this coordinated effort in 2024, at a time when foreign investment in the economy is increasing rapidly to diversify global supply chains. This provides an opportunity for India to change from a developing economy to an advanced industrial economy in stages by 2030 and 2040. ...

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Adam Taylor explains what Brexit is about. What should be added is that Brexit is a child of the time in 2015-2016 when Angela Merkel was ill prepared to tackle the sudden wave of migrants from North Africa from wars and population growth outstripping what little progress was made, making decisions to let in close to a million migrants. Migrants are now being returned back to their home countries and the issue has faded. The austerity policies in the EU with Greece, Spain and Portugal as bad poster childs for the EU are also largely over, with economic recovery in Europe.  As a result confidence is growing in the future of the European Union. What pessimists including Mr. Trump saw as a breakup of the European Union is no longer the case. Britain's long negotiations and divisions for Brexit are now reinforcing an opposite conclusion- that it is beneficial to stay in the European Union. Fully 68% in a Eurobarometer Survey of 27 EU countries by the European Commission in March 2019 think so, only 17% think it is not beneficial. In Britain also a majority now support membership in the EU. The European Union and Britain have a lot to learn from this experience and the divisions generated, which is likely to be part of the acquired experience of a new generation of leaders.  ...

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Political activism and grassroots efforts- other than street protests - are increasing in eurozone countries facing high unemployment and austerity cuts. The focus is on cleaning up the political system rife with cronyism, corruption and wasteful spending. Brat and Bjork describe one such effort in the town of Torrelodones, Spain, 18 miles from Madrid. Criminal investigations in many Spanish cities have increased public awareness and participation in local government. European Social Survey based in London, reports political activity of this kind in Spain jumped from 27% in 2008 to 39% in 2010. There is an increasing sense that the political elites of the two main parties, the Partido Popular and the Socialists have failed to bring clean government and transparency to Spain. As a result progressives are joining conservatives in an effort to clean up years of wasteful spending, cronyism and corruption in government. The Union for Progress and Democracy, representing an alliance of such groups would win 13% of the vote in a national election, and the ruling conservative Partido Popular would lose half of its support and get only 22.5%, according to independent Spanish polling firm Metroscopia. The new push for transparency is one of the welcome changes at a time of austerity cuts and 27% unemployment in Spain. Many of the perks of public officials such as chaeuffer driven cars and police escorts, contracts for favored few at higher prices, are out in many cities, and accounts made public for scrutiny and change. Transparency International's transparency index shows 33 out of 110 of Spain's biggest cities scoring top grades on the 2012 index, jumping from only one. Following the example of the regional government in Navarra, the central government is drafting the first open-records law. Castilla-La Mancha, the area around Toledo, run by a clean government advocate Maria Dolores de Cospedal from the Partido Popular has taken aggressive steps to clean up the local government and wasteful spending- see the link to Castilla La Mancha. Her long term approach is to clean up government spending and accounts with the idea of preserving spending where it is most needed, in education, healthcare and vital services hit by cuts, an approach being taken in other Spanish cities. ...

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Frank Rich on the ticking bomb in the banking system and the bank lobbying that has kept reform from happening. Phil Angelides leads the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission which is due to begin hearings soon. But says Rich, Angelides who is following in the footsteps of Ferdinand Pecora who investigated the 1929 crash as chief counsel of the Senate committee that did the investigating, will have to deal with a lot of resistance as he tries to alert the public to the need for action before a new crisis develops. For this to happen there will be aneed for more awareness of what happened, and a serious investigation, and prosecutions where necessary. Interestingly National City Bank was investigated then by Pecora. It is the predecessor of today's Citibank. At the time National City repackaged bad Latin American debt as new securities which it sold eaily to investors who later lost badly. Weill and Rubin at Citigroup made a series of bad decisions at Citigroup leading to huge losses at the bank, for which they have not accepted responsibility....

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There is increasing support in the ECB's governing council for an interest rate cut. ECB president Mario Draghi says 23 members support a cut, and adds "we stand ready to act." Rates were held steady to put pressure on European political leaders for more action. IHS Global Insight's chief European economist, Howard Archer, expects a 0.75% cut the next time the ECB meets in July 2012.

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The $15 billion in losses at RBS in 2013 continues the bad news from RBS. It now goes through another restructuring. This time with new CEO Ross McEwan. RBS plans to reduce the seven business lines to three lines, and set medium term cost cutting target of 8 billion pounds. Headcount will go down by 20,000. Risk weighted assets will be cut by 50 billion pounds.

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For the first time the Census Bureau reported the number of non-Hispanic white American deaths exceeded the number of births for that group by 12,400. White births declined by 13% in 2012 from 2007 levels, partly because of the difficult economic situation following the 2008 global financial crisis. Experts say this could reverse with higher fertility rates for whites in future years with an economic recovery.

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The Institute of Supply Management reported that its index for the U.S. in May dropped significantly from 60.4 to 53.5. A score above 50 indicates that business is improving. At the same time the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a rise in the unemployment rate from 9.0 to 9.1%. The drop of 6.9 points for the ISM Index is the largest one month drop since Jan 1984.

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For 2008 advertising pages in consumer magazines went down by 12%. According to Publishers Information Bureau therre was a 17% decline in ad pages for the fourth quarter compared year over year. Automakers bought 24% fewer ad pages according to PIB. Of news magazines Newsweek and Time lost 19% of their ad pages, but the Economist was a surprise with ad pages up 4%.

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Large drug companies are raising money in the bond markets to finance their mergers and acquisitions. Will this result in better research and new products/ At the same time as this is happening the capital markets are doing little for biotech startups and biotech startup are running short of cash, most of them having 6 months of cash to support them. See the link to this.

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Baer describes the role played by Jeb Bush at Lehman, the sensitive moments when Lehman was near collapse and Lehman executives suggested Dick Fuld, the CEO, should talk to his brother George W Bush, the U.S. president. According to Baer this call was never made because of the odd position it would place the two brothers in. Jeb Bush made a trip to Mexico City to meet Carlos Slim, a telecom billionaire, seeking investment prior to Lehman's collapse. Bush was paid $1.3 million annually for his work at Lehman, and after Lehman was acquired by Barclay's bank $2 million annually. Bush worked under Steve Lessing, a key fund raiser for his brother George W. Bush, at Lehman and Barclay's. The work involved talking to clients including healthcare companies Cigna, insurance company MetLife, and other clients. About half of Bush's time was spent working at the bank as an adviser, not an employee. The only other candidate for president in 2016 who worked at Wall Street, Ohio governor John Kasich, also worked at Lehman from 2001 to 2008. Kasich was reportedly paid $182,000 and a bonus of $432,000 as managing director at the investment banking division, less than Jeb Bush but working full time. When Jeb Bush graduated from the University of Texas in 1974 he worked at Texas Commerce Bank, founded by James Baker III, a close friend of his father George H.W. Bush. He worked there from 1974 to 1980, in the international division looking at country risks in Latin America. Both Jeb Bush and Kasich face the prospect of facing difficult questions about their time at Lehman Brothers, because of the 2008 financial crisis and aggressive leveraged expansion at the bank leading to its collapse....

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Jason Zweig cites the St. Petersburg Paradox in questioning how much someone should pay for a bet on Facebook shares at the high valuation set for this inital public offering. This riddle asks how much would one pay for playing a game in which one gets $1 for winning the first toss of a coin and the game ends, or $2 if the coin comes up heads the second time, or $4 the next time, $8 next and keep doing this , the payment doubles each time. The point is that the payoff is infinite because at each toss the probability is 50% and 12.5% for the next toss, and one could get to the 30th toss or the 60th toss, with payoff in hundreds of millions. People also could be out of the game when the heads come up and not see the later supposed gains. Because of this experts say the most people should pay for playing is $20. The Facebook offering has infinite potential of this sort, but the reality is that for businesses of this type one can only see a couple of years ahead in terms of growth, with large uncertainties ahead about growth beyond that point. Charles Lee, professor of accounting at Stanford Business School, and former head of equity research at Barclays Global Investors, says its hard to see further than two or three years for this type of company. Another problem is pointed out by Prof. Ritter of the University of Florida. He says the valuation is so high today that even if Facebook followed Google's growth and had a total market value of $190 billon that Google has today in 10 years, the annual return would be around 6.8%....

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Australian actor Hugh Jackman is shown here in The Guardian advocating working hard but not too hard, the idea being that if you work at 85% of your capacity, you will be more relaxed and perform much better. Sports athletes do this. In the French cycling race Tour de France some cyclists practice with much lighter routines to do their best the following day in the actual races. The idea is doing what brings out the best in you. There is also a principle behind this. Intel's founder Andy Grove called it the "slack" principle in which by having slack in your daily routine when something suddenly came up to be done one could accomodate it easily and not waste horrendous amounts of energy tackling the chaotic situation when one tried to do it crossing the 100% of your capacity to do it to reach 101% or 102%. At that point one is not at one's productive best but deteriorating in quality of work. The slack could be 5% leaving an additional slack of 10% for yourself to do things that give your mind a rest which is what sports athletes and productive workers do. In actual practice the work is done in less time with slack because you can concentrate better which means you are getting more done than before this 85% approach. ...

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Now that congestion pricing plan is halted, the New York Subway system that has suffered from decades of neglect and disinvestment languishes in crisis. The NYT says it is hanging by a thread in this report. Compare this with the Tokyo subway or subways in Taiwan, China,  or other countries and one realizes how much damage years of disinvestment driven by Reagan/Friedman economic theory can do. Where Asian countries are investing in infrastructure, eight years after Republican Trump called for attention to infrastructure but failed to invest, and four years after the trillion dollar infrastructure program of president Biden, NY subway remains neglected. Ana Ley tells us what a difficult time it is for New Yorkers. After decades of neglect new subways are going up even in places such as Mumbai, India. How much longer must New Yorkers wait for government to partner with private industry for the NY subway system to be rebuilt, in the state that is where the Erie Canal was built in the nineteenth century in the first wave of the Industrial Revolution? The Erie Canal was built in 7 years for $7 million as navigable waterway with locks for elevation of 350 miles from the Hudson River at Albany to Buffalo and Lake Erie. It opened up the vast hinterland and granary of New York state and connected it to New York City, from the Atlantic to the Great Lakes. ...

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Le Monde asks what is the role of religion in the founding of the US from the time of Mayflower Compact 1620 by Calvinist preachers? Two books published after the failure of the Spanish Armada naval invasion of Britain under Queen Elizabeth in 1588 set the stage for an alternative colonization of America and Britain's effort to contest the Americas against the Catholic monarchs of Spain. Agnes Delahaye, Prof of American Civilization at Lumiere University Lyon 2, in France, describes this in an interview in Le Monde. Her book is Adventurers, Puritans, Pilgrims, Amerca's Founding Myths. The first book in 1583 that set the stage for English exploration in the Americas is- A Short Account of the Destruction of the Indies by a Dominican missionary, Bartolome de las Casas, and says the Spanish solders tarnished and ruined their Christian duty. The second in 1584 was Discourse of Western Planting by Richard Hakluyt showed Queen Elizabeth with the true religious conviction and practice against the Spanish "black legend," of conquest, and unChristian treatment of native Americans. The Pilgrim Fathers and the migration on the Mayflower and other British ships came through this movement. The settlers around 1600 came from small Calvinist congregations under Brewster and Robinson. Mayflower Compact was the constitutional document in 1620 setting forth their aims. ...

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Mr. Trump the Republican nominee for president dials into Fox New to speak just as Kamala Harris was making her speech and called Mr. Trump "an unserious man" who would bring "serious" negative consequences to the Nation if elected. Bret Baier and Martha McCallum were doing Fox News coverage as Kamala Harris made her speech. McCallum said at one point Kamala Harris was having some success with Women, Black and Hispanic voters, and Trump objected that it was not harris but he that was having success with Women, Black and Hispanic people. Trump's comments- "she didn't talk about China, about crime, fracking."  She talks about this and that, she would do this and that, but she did not do any of it, said the former president. This recalls president Biden's speech at the Convention in Chicago when he said Trump said he would do this every week, to fix America's infrastructure, and he Trump did nothing. He was not Coach, Trump said of Walz, he was Assistant Coach. After 10 minutes Baier heard Mr. Trump entering something on his phone and he ended the conversation with the former president., because they were running out of time. ...