LyrArc Article Gist
In a first at Davos World Economic Forum, China's president Xi Jinping uses the 2017 meeting to give a one hour long spirited defense of the world trading system, critical of U.S. president elect Trump's protectionist views without naming him. Xi pointed out that "no one will be winners in a trade war." And went on to add that restricting world trade was like "locking oneself in a dark room, keeping out wind and rain from outside but also light and air." For the first time Jinping stated that China would take the U.S. role of defending the world trading system from attack as needed. On climate change Xi defended the Paris accords, and gave China's commitment to pursue changes regardless of what the U.S. under president Trump does. This follows Chancellor Merkel of Germany's statements on the issue critical of the views of president elect Trump, and taking the lead to defend the world trading system. Xi also pointed out that many of the ills that led to voter discontent in the West were not really from the freeing up of trade but from the pursuit of excessive profit with the financial crisis of 2008.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Conventional monetary policy is ineffective in a liquidity trap. At that point short term interest rates are at zero, and conventional monetary policy is ineffective at this zero bound. Unconventional policies such as buying long term Treasury bonds by the Federal Reserve may be adopted, but their effectiveness has not been proven. This is something the Fed is attempting to do in the U.S. after the 2008 financial crisis. This was tried in Japan in a deflationary situation and the results did not show conclusively that it works, because Japan remained at a borderline deflationary situation for years while this policy was implemented by the Bank of Japan. The $600 billion bond buying program of the U.S. Fed in late 2010, known as QE II, was implemented to reduce the chance of deflation taking hold and to stimulate growth. Krugman and others argue for the need of fiscal policy and government spending to step in to support the unconventional monetary policy. This becomes more difficult to do with the increasing budget deficit the U.S. is facing in 2011....

LyrArc Article Gist
The US added 167,000 jobs in July 2023 from a month earlier, according to the Labor Department, less than 200,000 anticipated. Higher population numbers and higher labor force participation rates offset the increasing  number of retired people in the US. More people added to the population from immigration and more younger people participating in prime age under 54. This means the US is where it would like to be with the Fed not having to increase rates that much in coming months, says Justin Lahart of WSJ. The Labor Department increased its estimates of population by 867,000, and the labour force participation for prime age is up to 84%. These are good signals for the US economy, that there is room for more jobs growth and income growth with an unemployment rate at 3.5%, and less need for increasing interest rates by the Fed.

LyrArc Article Gist
The efforts of president Biden with trillions of dollars of investment and the Fed's supporting measured fight against inflation, mean that the US economy is likely poised for growth in the year ahead.

LyrArc Article Gist
A strong jobs report means interest rate cuts from the Fed are less likely. The US December jobs report shows 256,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate edging down to 4.1%.

 

LyrArc Article Gist
The European Central Bank follows the US Federal Reserve in raising interest rates. The ECB raised rates by half a percentage point. The Fed earlier raised rates by three quarters of a percentage point. The effort is to tackle inflation before it takes root in US and Europe.

LyrArc Article Gist
20 million barrels a day  of oil flow through Straits of Hormuz. 2.6 million barrels a day by pipelines to Oman. 70% of it going to Asia- China, India, Japan, South Korea. Iranian exports go through these Straits also making it difficult for Iran to generate oil revenue if the Straits are closed to shipping. Would Iran risk closing the Straits and what would it take to open the Straits? The answers are given in the adjoining article by Wald in The Atlantic Council publication. It says even if Iranian waters are closed in the Straits of Hormuz oil can still flow through the longer route in UAE waters. Wald says the bigger risk is for Suez and Red Sea shipping which is restricted by the Houthi rebels supported by Iran, with the US Navy operating in that area to keep shipping lanes open.

LyrArc Article Gist
Federal Reserve inflation policy changes August 2025 to get a handle on everyday costs people face not the statistics the Fed uses which shows 2%-3% when housing, childcare, groceries, automobiles and repair, heating bills are on the rise. On a rise to the point where average households are barely able to make ends meet and raising a family is so difficult in the US in these conditions.

LyrArc Article Gist
This report by Timiraos in WSJ describes the tussle between supply siders led by Mike Pence and David Malpass with the zero sum advisors who advised Trump on trade during the campaign. The zero sum advisors are focussed only on how to turn trade to improve the U.S. position and cut trade deficits. The supply siders are trying to show that trade can benefit the U.S. only that it needs to be adjusted so that it works better for the U.S.

LyrArc Article Gist
CIC makes a shift in investment strategy away from energy assets to investment in Europe and the U.S., as western economies recover and the Fed tapers its bond purchases leading to credit outflows from emerging markets.

LyrArc Article Gist
This response by experts on transatlantic relations rejects the other view expressed in Zeit Online that the U.S. under Trump remains estranged from Germany and the EU. These experts from the American Institute for German Contemporary Studies, American German Council, and Centers at John Hopkins and Georgetown for German Studies, reject the view that the Trump administration and Germany are that far apart on many issues as it appears from media coverage.  Foremost it points out that civil society relations are sound and growing. About 50 million Americans trace their descent to Germany, including president Trump, much larger to over half the U.S. population considering European descent. Much larger is the sense of a culturally shared future with the European Union, with the nations of Europe including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the nations of Eastern Europe, and Britain. The civil society relationships run deep in a way that is hardly affected by the Trump administration. Within the Trump administration the policies to Europe these experts remind the reader, are determined by the "adults" in the administration, who are senior members of the administration. This is a crucial point as Trump administration policy is not determined by the president's liking for tweets as much as by senior cabinet members Tillerson at the State Department, Gen. Mattis at Defense, Kelly at the White House, and senior members of Congress including Senators Corker and other senior committee members. This is why Republican Senator Kay Hutchinson was chosen as Ambassador to NATO. It should be noted in this context of German-EU relations in president Trump's first year that there was a period of German disillusionment with president Obama, exacerbated by the NSA spying on German chancellor Merkel and on the EU delegation to the UN, with president Obama's failure to offer any apology. Relations recovered from that low point. No one suggested that there be a German led decoupling of the EU with America at that low point, or at another low point in German-U.S. relations with the setup of American Pershing II nuclear missiles on German soil under the Reagan administration when there were large scale protests.  The American view that the U.S. should not have to shoulder major responsibilities for defense and foreign relations by itself is not new say these experts, and goes back to earlier administrations before Trump.  The experts argue for an active role by Germany with its partners in Europe for defense and foreign relations, which should not be seen as a result of U.S. pressure, only responding to the situation as it has evolved upto this time. Views on immigration are also changing with effort by the EU and Germany, France, to reduce immigration from the source countries in Africa, and the changing perceptions about uncontrolled immigration in Germany and France, say the authors. A coordinated policy towards Russia  is seen as not having changed. And much as a reset in relations was advocated by Obama in the first year of his first term, the current policy of the Trump administration to work with Russia to lower tensions can be seen in the same way say these experts, and not as a fundamental shift in American policy. The deep relationship of Germany and the EU with China is another positive aspect that will also help the U.S. in framing its own policies towards China. The German-American relationship, and the European Union relationship with the U.S.  is seen as basic to the values and interests of the U.S. and Europe. This relationship is too deep and supported by civil society and Congress, the Republican Party, and the Democratic Party, by large trade relationships, to be affected by temporary differences under any one administration. Even these differences are part of a larger debate that is part of dialogue on issues in a democratic society, sometimes raucous and loud, and could be welcomed and carefully channelled in constructive ways.     ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Shiller says that his CAPE ratio for the U.S. stands at above 25 in 2014, from 23 in 2013, above the 20th century average of 15.21. He looks at possible reasons for the CAPE remaining above 20 for long period of about 20 years, except when it dropped to 13 following the 2008 financial crisis. CAPE is similiar to the price earnings ratio except it uses the average of the last 10 years earnings. Reasons he gives are low interest rates, high bond prices, Fed policy, and the lack of alternative investments in a low interest rate environment that puts more money into the stock market in the U.S.

LyrArc Article Gist
A 5 member US Congressional group led by Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts visits Taiwan in August 2022. It follows the trip by Speaker Pelosi. The group includes John Garamendi of California, chair of the Committee on Readiness of the Armed Services Committee of the US Congress. The high level Congressional delegations visiting Taiwan show the US is firmly on the side of Taiwan as part of its policy in the Indo-Pacific with partners Japan, Australia and India and committed to ensure free navigation on the seas and the rule of international law.

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. Federal Reserve issued the results of the third round of stress tests since 2009. It said 18 0f 19 financial firms had enough capital buffers to continue lending in a sharp decline in the economy with a fall in housing prices and the stock market and unemployment rising to 13%. Ally Financial failed the test. Citigroup, MetLife and SunTrust Banks were asked to resubmit their capital plans to the Fed. Citigroup's dividend plan was rejected. No banks were asked to raise capital. J.P. Morgan and other banks were allowed to issue dividends and buyback shares. J.P. Morgan plans to repurchase $15 billion in stocks in the next 12 months. Wells Fargo and U.S. Bancorp also plan to issue dividends and buyback shares. Analyst estimates are for $32 billion in added dividend increases and share buybacks in in the next 12 months. The results are a boost for bank stocks.

LyrArc Article Gist
Fed vice chair Lael Brainard is president Biden's choice to replace Brian Deese as director National Economic Council. She would help Biden at a crucial period for the US economy with recession fears and inflation, and aggressive interest policy of the Fed's Jay Powell to slow inflation. Brainard is a daughter of a US diplomat who became interested in economics after living in Poland and Germany, and seeing how countries so close to each other divided by the Iron Curtain followed very different economic policies.

LyrArc Article Gist
Bernanke made a defense of the Fed's $600 billion monetary policy move in a Washington Post op-ed piece. He stated that the Fed's move had already led to a rise in the stock market, and this is how it would start "a virtuous circle" that would lead to a recovery of the US economy. Questions raised about the risk that this virtuous circle could go in reverse if gridlock shows no progress in Washington's political establishment.

LyrArc Article Gist
WSJ was effective in calling to the attention of the US president that tactics of one Border Patrol officer were against the American tradition and appeared to be not what police, ICE and Border Patrol, DHS itself was doing in the past. Greg Bovino of Border Patrol led sweeps in LA, Chicago and other cities in what people inside ICE and DHS including Border Head Homan  considered  "unnecessarily aggressive"  and less effective tactics. By being provocative in tactics this attracted more protestors on streets, made law enforcement look worse than when it was using the normal approach of ICE, and by reducing the local authorites cooperation required more and more Border patrol and ICE agents till it became unworkable and attracted critics from within the government and Republicans in Congress. Even DJT said that the this agent was an "out there kind of guy." In Congress many Republicans including Kennedy of Louisiana went on the floor of the Senate asserting the right of peaceful protest enshrined in the US Constitution and called for soul searching to get effective but the right kind of law enforcement that was the tradition in America. Anotehr aspect of what happened in Minneapolis is the troubled history of the city as this is where George Floyd and unarmed man during Covid lost his life in a situation with Minneapolis police, which had already created a sense of unease in that city, compared to Chicago, and Los Angeles BP and ICE sweeps which did not end up like this. In Nashville, and Washington DC National Guard not ICE operated which has different training.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
"Humphrey's Executor" is a precedent that bars firing by the president of FTC NLRB etc officials. "Humphrey's Executor" precedent is  being challenged by president DJT before the US Supreme Court and with it the independence of the Fed in 2025. Humphrey was an FTC official who was fired by FDR in the 1930's but died before his case went to the courts. It set the precedent that the president cannot simply fire officials he does not like. DJT challenged this by firing offfical at the National Labor Relations Board. When the US Supreme Court takes up this case it will look sceptically at this precedent, yet will find some way to protect the Fed's independence, says WSJ.

LyrArc Article Gist
Thomas Hoenig was Governor of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank for 20 years. Here he talks about the dangers of "too big to fail" with Gretchen Morgenson of the New York Times. He is due to retire at the age of 65 in 2011. Hoeinig has stood for conservative safe financial practices for U.S. financial institutions throughout his 20 year old career, and cautioned against extending the government safety net for banks that engage in risky financial activities including derivatives trading. And essential element of safe financial practice and part of necessary market discipline, he has pointed consistently, is the fear that taking on risky activities or acting recklessly has a price- creditors can take out their funds if they see a banks as unsafe, and the financial institution may have to be broken up or closed. He joins Alan Meltzer in his criticism of Federal Reserve policies under first Greenspan and then Bernanke that take on the job of stimulating the economy and creating jobs through a very loose monetary policy after the collapse of a bubble. Hoenig sees the role of the Fed in such situations as a neutral player. The reason say Meltzer and Hoenig is that the Fed has not given enough thought and attention to the long term consequences of its policies. What were the consequences of the low rate policies in 2003 asks Hoenig? It promoted another bubble and the mortgage meltdown of 2008. What were the consequences of QE II asks Meltzer in an op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal on August 11, 2011, "The Folly of Economic Short-Termism?" It has failed to revive the economy or reduce unemployment. Hoenig also points to questions of fairness and equity that arise when banks are treated differently and farmers, seniors and other groups are asked to make sacrifices....

LyrArc Article Gist
Fed Eccles building (1937) and Martin building (1970)  in Washington DC get $2.5 billion renovation with cost overrruns. Original approved amount was $1.9 billion. The work on the Martin building is underway for 2 years now. Issues include asbestos contamination, toxic waste on site, and design changes. This has become an issue for some Republicans and the US president as he seeks to cut waste in the national budget.

LyrArc Article Gist
The influence of business executives who helped shape president Trump's views on Mexico, China, Export Import Bank, and other issues is covered by Stokols and Bender of WSJ. On Mexico the departure of Mike Flynn helped moderate views, Wilbur Ross, the Commerce Secretary also provided a moderating influence. The plans are now to change NAFTA but not entirely redo the agreement. On the Export Import Bank the views of Boeing CEO Muilenburg, who explained to Trump why the Bank supported U.S. exports and how other countries had similar banks, led to the president filling the bank vacancies. On China the influence of NEC head, Gary Cohn, former president of Goldman Sachs, and other business executives, led to a less confrontational position. The president once called NATO obsolete during the campaign but he met this week with NATO secretary general Stoltenberg this week and expressed strong support for NATO after rising tensions with Russia.

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Committee's minutes for its April 26-27 meeting show prolonged discussion on an exit strategy from a loose monetary policy. The first step would be to make a significant reduction in the $2.4 trillion portfolio of mortgage and Treasury securities. Fed chairman Bernanke has pointed out that the Fed will first make a decision to reduce its mortgage portfolio by letting the securities to mature without reinvesting in Treasurys as it has done so far. This would be followed by reducing its holdings of long term Treasury bonds in the same manner. These steps would precede raising short term rates followed by the sale of agency securities. The minutes reveal the Fed's thinking and strategy. For instance, the minutes show "a majority of participants preferred that sales of agency securities come after the first increase in the Fed's target for short term interest rates." The minutes also show that "many of those participants also expressed a preference that sales proceed relatively gradually," which could be over a five year period. Economists expect the Fed to wait till sometime in 2013 to raise rates, with the signalling of Fed moves to reduce its holdings before raising rates....

LyrArc Article Gist
Independent oil companies are eager to invest in Venezuela says Treasury Secretary Bessent at the Economic Club of Minnesota. He says phone are ringing non stop from these companies. Big Oil such as Exxon is taking longer. Chevron is already in Venezuela and Bessent says in a few months it can increase production by 40-50%. Oil revenue from Venezuela will be in a special fund that will be used for the people of Venezuela. Under Maduro since 2013 the oil revenue was used for regimes in Cuba and not managed well for the investment in infrastructure and modernization. US sanctions made it hard to modernize the oil industry which will now take place. Bessent calls Cuba's economy decrepit and now in bad shape. It also shows that realistically modernization and good standards of living are not possible in the western hemisphere by regimes of the Cuban or Bolivarist type which descend into corrupt regimes and lack foreign capital and technologies. Lula adopted an approach in Brazil that worked with the US and EU to modernize the economy creating a workable model for a Workers party. There is much to learn from these experiences in Latin America which come at considerable cost and suffering. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Modi BJP Win in West Bengal 2026- full speech on the future of Bengal, India, Indian democracy, India's modernization - May 4, 2026. For the first time most of India is now being led by state and federal governments that are aligned for rapid modernization, rapid development of infrastructure, industry and the economy. Madras, Bombay, Ahmedabad, Jaipur, Vizag, Kolkata, Bhubaneshwar, Delhi, Noida, Bhopal, Dehra Dun, Srinagar,most of India's cities and urban areas, and the rural heartland of India all aligned for accelerated development under a Master Plan for the economy for the next two decades. This will close the gap with China to make India the third largest economy in the world, and a key support for the United States and the European Union. Seen through this lens many of todays reports and concerns fade into significance. The US and the European Union are not alone- they have the support of 2 billion people of India, and Indonesia and adjoining regions.

LyrArc Article Gist
Supply chains are back to normal with better shipping rates, delivery capacity and retailer inventory. This should have a restraining effect on surging inflation and is a good sign for the US Fed's Jay Powell in his fight against inflation.