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The Guardian's Greenhouse says the UAW sees the tariff action with 25% tariff on cars imported into the US starting April 2 2025, as a positive step.  Shawn Fain of the UAW who had the support of president Biden during his term 2020-2024 says DJT's actions match those taken by Biden to help working class Americans and the middle class. Supporting the president “for stepping up to end the free trade disaster that has devastated working-class communities for decades”. “Ending the race to the bottom in the auto industry starts with fixing our broken trade deals, and the Trump administration has made history with today’s actions.” Greenhouse is concerned that the way it is being implemented can create problems with tariffs on one day and off the next. The reason for the on again off again action was to give Mexico, Canada, and China time to respond with action they have not taken on fentanyl flows into the US, and Mexico time to address migrant trafficking across its borders. The US International Trade Commission study in 2024 on the 25% tariff on US auto imports cited by BBC shows it would reduce imports by 75%, increase prices by a modest 5%, and increase revenues of auto makers in the US by 5%. Figures such as prices going up by $6000 may apply to BMW's that are imported from Germany and carry high price tags for a very small very affluent customer group unrepresentative of the US automobile market. ...

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Oil prices went up by 16.8% in the 1st quarter 2011. The increase in oil prices for all of 2010 was 15.1% With the decline in inventories and and fears of a disruption in oil supplies, oil price has become a significant concern at the end of the 1st quarter 2011.

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Thirty years of neglect it all began in 1998 with Tim Cook from Alabama was hired to ship manufacturing to China- Apple now takes WSJ reporters to its "nascent effort" in building new supply chain for chips manufacturing in 2026. Steve Jobs was hired in 1998 when Steve Jobs returned to run Apple a second time. By this time the company was failing and manufacturing plants had huge quality control issues, morale was low. Instead of fixing these problems at US factories, Jobs and Cook came up with a new strategy- Make in China, invent and price at a premium in PC's for large margins with low cost Chinese manufacturing using tightly controlled US design, reinvest the profits in a virtuous cycle, invent and design to compete with Microsoft. It succeeded for Apple share owners, and it failed for American workers and people- succeeded by creating a $3 trillion valuation, it failed for the American people by leaving American workers to go unemployed and setting the trend to destroy the manufacturing capabilities and structures that had led to the US following Britain with 300 years of dominance in standards of living for its people and its industrial stength since 1750. (1750-1900 Britain's dominance 1900-2000 US dominance). It also created Asian competitors in China/Taiwan, and South Korea to whom the US business had in reckless manner based on textbook theory of economists for four administrations (Bush-Clinton-Bush-Obama) had shipped American manufacturing and knowhow to China. ...

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Even though immigration makes the headlines for the average German and daily German life polls and surveys show says the NYT that the main concerns center around a failing economy. For 5 years Germany has experienced little growth. According to Eurostat, Germany's GDP growth rate is 2023 -0.2% 2022: 1.37% 2021: 3.67% 2020 -4.1% Tankersley and Eddy report from Lutherstadt Wittenberg Eastern Germany. As Germany's economy slows companies may move jobs and manufacturing to Austria and France says one CEO of a company that makes fertilizer and additives for diesel motors. This could lead to loss of 10,000 jobs in an already depressed region. The problems faced buy German industry are increasing with higher costs of energy- even after prices have come down energy is 20% costlier than the European average according to Eurostat. Industry leaders say this is the result partly of efforts to reduce fossil fuel emissions. Increasing competition from China means Germany cannot compete as before. Investment in public infrastructure has not kept up with crumbling roads and bridges and a rail system with underinvestment and plagued with delays. Investment in digital technology has lagged behind China, India and France.   ...

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The bubble in Canada's real estate market reached its peak in 2011-2012. The average price of a home in Vancouver reached a high of C$815,252 in April 2011, before declining to C$721,958 in Sept. 2012, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association, Average prices nationwide in Canada were at C$372,544. Prices are being pushed up by buyers from China. Canada is taking steps to restrain the bubble by changing immigration rules. The immigration minister temporarily froze the Federal Skilled Worker Program and the Immigrant Investor Program. Under the latter program citizenship was given in five years to qualified immigrants investing over C$800,000 in Canada. Other measures include cutting the mortgage amortization to 25 years from 30 years, and reducing the amount of home equity Canadians can borrow against from 85% to 80%. Home sales in Vancouver declined 33% in Sept 2012 over prior year and listings increased 14%. The moves are modest because real estate agents see it as a pause in the bidding wars that were taking place, and the market remains overinflated....

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This report on Danish wind energy company Orsted, looks at the journey of the largest developer of wind energy in the world from a company sending natural gas from North Sea to Europe to a joint developer with Denmark's Vestas of offshore wind farms. Last year Orsted, pronounced Ehrr-sted in Danish for the O and named after a Danish scientist, decided to invest $57 billion in offshore wind farms by 2027. It was not easy and the path required a bold vision and bold action to invest in wind energy for the long term even as debt piled up from losses in natural gas competing with coal, climate change committments were not yet strong, subsidies were required to make wind energy competitive, and debt was piling up. It would take a decade of hard work and technological innovation to produce wind energy that could outcompete coal and natural gas on cost without subsidies. The year is 2009 with the Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen. The predecessor company to Orsted was losing money in natural gas with lower cost coal energy generation in Europe at the time. Yet the mood was changing governments were willing to invest in renewables. In 2012 a new CEO Paulsen did a review of 12 businesses of this Danish energy company and decided wind energy was the only one with long term prospects. The Copenhagen Climate Change Conference created new awareness for the need to come up with a long term solution for energy that has no negative health effects and is renewable. That Conference set a goal of 20% for renewable energy by 2020 in the total mix for Europe up from 14%. Paulsen saw an opportunity in the crisis at the company then called Danish Oil and Natural Gas. The new company was called Orsted and the old divisions in fossil energy were sold to invest in wind farms offshore. The way Paulsen saw the situation was that the company had to take radical action whether it wanted to do so or not. By 2012 Danish pension funds were investing in large offshore wind farms of Orsted, taking a stake of as much as 50% in the Nysted wind farm. The Danish government which owned 80% of Orsted thought its projects were risky. Hard work with Vestas which builds the turbines in Denmark paid off in developing a huge new turbine that would bring costs down 65% comparing 2020 with 2012.  In 2018 the European Union was spending about 92 billion euros or $112 billion on energy subsidies including to wind farms. Britain also heavily subsidized offshore wind farms such as Hornsea 1 at about $198 a megawatt hour for 15 years double the electricity price in recent years. Windy conditions and shallow waters in the North Sea were favorable. Technology was being developed with Vestas which would reduce the cost each year. By 2016 Orsted was listed in Copenhagen. The remaining oil and gas business was then sold for $1 billion. The returns are less in wind than coal and natural gas- about 7-8% a year but the big thing is that there is certainty in this compared to coal and natural gas which are volatile and uncertain. The lesson companies are learning in renewables is that with solar and wind technology can. bring down costs, a lot of hard work and creative work lies ahead, that crisis can be turned into opportunity for companies that can be focussed enough to produce results. ...

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German economy contracts in second quarter 2024 by 0.1%. Growth is forecast at 0.3% for 2024 and 1.1% for 2025, according to country statistics office Destatis. The contrast could not be greater in Biden's management of the economy as US economic growth was much higher at about 2.8% in 2024. It shows the positive effects of Biden's effort to revive American manufacturing, and to support chips and science and American industry, and the investment of a trillion dollars from the Inflation Reduction Act in American infrastructure. Without these investments American recovery strong at this time would have hobbled along with much worse effects on jobs and inflation, and looming recession, under a Trump administration. Unusual factors such as the concentration of the supply chain in China have influenced US inflation, which Biden is correcting, and also bringing jobs at home. The economic management is excellent it  is the effects of the pandemic and broken supply chains, high mortgage rates and 20% price increases in apartment rentals that are making cost of living a problem for average Americans. Biden has taken cost of living action including canceling student debt and calling for limiting rent increases for apartment rentals to 5%. Harris has a program to support renters when housing takes up more than 30% of their income. ...

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The European central bank increases interest rates by quarter percentage point taking the deposit rate to 3.5%. The US Fed held off on increases. The US Fed started early with its increase in interest rates and maintained a steady posture with 8 interest rate increases over 2022-2023 in a period of just over 12 months. It has strengthened the dollar against the euro. The slow response of the ECB and price gouging in Europe has worsened the inflation picture there. The US Fed's policy combined with consumers resisting price gouging by halting purchases from stores, untangling of supply chains, the Biden administration's series of actions to tackle the cost of living increases, and overall investment in the economy that keeps employment resilient including government investment for the first time, is creating a better economy for America than most of the last two decades. 

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19 percent of China's exports went to the US in 2017, in 2024 this is 15%, but wait, the difference of 4 percent it is simply coming back to the US but through Southeast Asia. As a result some of the same issues that puzzled Trump negotiators exist today. China's exports surged 12.7% in October 2024 over the prior year. Biden was facing this situation and had yet to respond to the surge in exports to US. These exports were sent to Mexico and to Southeast Asia to circumvent the tariffs. It is the same situation revisited in 2024 with two other aspects of the Chinese economy-economic stimulus gets smaller and the housing and construction industry has imploded, the economy has slower growth. The overall price level in the US with a 60% tariff plus 10% for all countries would be 0.72 addition to the price level of 1.10 percent today- that is when including the depreciation of China's yuan by 10%. as it did last time. The result would be price level in the US at 1.82%, according to J.P. Morgan. Drag on China's GDP of the Trump tariffs in first term was 0.65% according to one investment bank GS, with 60% tariffs it would be 2%. Trump secured a return of $116 billion or 58% of the $200 billion China said it would buy of US exports. The other 42%- the deal was not completed in the end. ...

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How is the oil price cap by the US, EU and G-7 countries working and what is its impact on Russian oil revenues, is the subject of this report in NYT. The gap between the price of Brent Crude  the global oil benchmark and Urals Crude for Russian oil is now about $40 in January 2023. Russia's finance ministry says the average price in January for Urals crude was $49.50, half of what it was a year earlier. 

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Rising home prices are leading to higher property taxes in Colorado. A surge of new people coming to Colorado has meant higher property taxes of much as 40% for those already living in the state. David Chen talked to residents in the state and found a retiree, a former X-Ray technician retired for 20 years, facing a 20% rise in property taxes in Littleton, Colorado, and having to sell some of her stuff to meet the higher cost. For retirees in Colorado and across the Rocky mountain states- where people have moved to from California and the Northeast  paying higher prices for homes- living on Social Security checks is particularly hard these days. In Montana property taxes went up by 40-50% in some counties in 2023. Democrat Governor Polis says just because your home price goes up by 40% does't mean you have 40% more cash to pay taxes, your income may be up 10-12%. For retirees on Social Security checks alone it is only the inflation coverage in those checks. The situation is also true for Arizona and Utah with many newcomers and the trend for hybrid work adding to it. ...

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India US trade relationship needs a complete rethinking in 2025 as trade tensions increase. In addition India needs to accept that the US or some other power has to maintain peace from a possible nuclear escalation that would be so damaging to south Asia and the world, and the US role under DJT seen in this context and welcomed. For this to happen both US and India need to look beyond the past perceptions of ethnic divisions as India industrializes, beyond China, as India's modernization will change everything in Asia and the world. Possible opportunities exist in India offering it's strengths in pharmaceuticals to reduce costs of drugs to ordinary Americans. India could take advantage of the reduction in oil prices under DJT to reduce purchases of Russian oil so that it is getting nearly the same price when oil prices were high and Russia offered discounted oil.  On agricultural exports to India, India can look for better ways to tackle this offering some transition period to when the US could send some quantities of exports in areas where India's rapidly growing middle class can absorb US fruits production such as cherries and apples, other fruit. India could help the US in the pharmaceutical and other sectors as a way to address US desire for reducing costs of drugs in the US. India could for instance make the drugs at a low cost in the US, investing in factories in the US to supply low cost drugs to average Americans tackling one of the biggest problems the American people face. ...

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The Ukraine war with increases in prices of oil and natural gas, and food imports has hit Bangladesh hard.  The currency has declined by 20% which also adds to the cost of imports. The government of Sheikh Hasina is seeking $1 billion each from the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank.  It is also seeking $4.5 billion for budgetary and balance of payments support through the new Resilience and Sustainability Facility set up by the IMF. The government is doing this in advance to avoid a situation in which most of the tax revenues go to paying for imports at high prices with little left for spending on development needs. Bangladesh imports cooking oil, wheat and other food, as well as fossil energy. The current account deficit is $17 billion and the foreign exchange reserves are about $39 billion in July, down from $45.5 billion in 2021, enough for 5 months of imports for a nation of 160 million people.  Action is being taken to curtail use of air conditioning at mosques. Power outages are increasing and electricity rationing is being done. ...

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One cocoa pod gives enough cocoa for one chocolate bar. Cocoa farms in Ghana and Ivory Coast are the world's largest producers of cocoa. Production declined in 2024 by about 25% in the two countries from bad weather with rain in the dry season and not enough rain in the west season. To protect farmers both West African countries decided to give farmers a fixed price for their cocoa. With surging prices farmers do not get to benefit from the higher price. Government fertilizer support is lacking.

With buyers in Europe insisting that no trees get cut on forested land for new farming, farmers are restricted to their old plots and have to take out old trees which costs more. As a result of these factors cocoa farms are shifting to other crops including palm oil in Ghana.

Other countries in West Africa including Cameroon and Nigeria are also producing cocoa. Outside of this region Ecuador and Brazil also produce cocoa.

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Auto sales for 2010 are expected to come in at 11.5 million, a significant drop from the 17.5 million in 2000. A better job market expected to push the unemployment rate down a bit to 9.7% from 9.8% in November will help, but not by enough. Credit Suisse analyst Christopher Ceraso says each percentage point that the rate is above normal ( about 5%) keeps sales back by about a million auto sales on an annual basis. To get sales back to a 16 million range this would require an unemployment rate of 6%. Economists expect a better US economy in 2011 but the prospects remain uncertain for 2012, bringing unemployment down to about 8-9% if hiring picks up. The other concerns are high consumer debt and a rise in gasoline prices. If gas prices rise and buyers shift back to smaller vehicles, as they did in 2008, this would squeeze margins and profits. This is especially a concern as automobile companies have increased profits with a larger truck and large size vehicle component of sales, in a reverse shift after the shift to smaller cars in 2008-2009. Ford Motor is one example of this. It helps Ford use the extra profits to reduce its debt load but automakers have to be prepared for a sales shift to smaller cars in the face of higher gas prices....

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High oil prices have reduced oil demand by about 8% compared to last year. The EIA looks at gas demand average for 2017 to 2019 and finds that in late February 2022 it was 99% of this average, in May it was 93% and June 95%. US refineries have cut production by 800,000 barrels a day since the pandemic began causing oil shortages, and shale oil companies are reluctant to make the investments to scale up production.

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By carrying only 150,000 passengers of its normally 42.4 million passengers and grounding all but a few aircraft Ryanair Europe's largest airline, will show a loss of 100 million pounds. It will resume operations by July when it expects about half of the 42.4 million passengers for the quarter. Routes will be cut and prices adjusted with profits expected by September 2020. It expects full recovery of the airline industry to take about 2 years. For the financial year ending March 2021 it expects about 100 million passengers for the year down from 154 million passengers normal for the year. Ryanair is one of the only airlines that was able to plan this far. It has laid off one sixth of its 18,000 staff.

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Shabana Mahmood, new UK Home Secretary in September 2025 says -"Will do whatever it takes to secure our borders. I am not the kind of person who just hangs around."

About Shabana Mahmood it has been said- “She prides herself on not being woke. She prides herself on having normal-person instincts and understanding where the electorate is.”

The Times says this may be just what Labour Party and Starmer needs right now.

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Sperling shows how Biden's economic plan rescued America and set the stage for America becoming the leader in the G7 economies. Gene Sperling is adviser to president Biden, coordinator of the America Rescue Plan, and had 8 years as adviser in 2000 and 2011 after the financial crisis to previous presidents. Here he says the arguments made that the trillion dollars investment spending Biden and a bipartisan group of senators have supported with legislation in Congress were causing inflation have proved not to be true. Inflation caused by bottlenecks in the supply chain, the pandemic shifts, and the Ukraine war, has come down to 3.4% in Dec 2023. By investing in the US economy, in US manufacturing and US jobs, the US under Biden now has the best economy of the 7 advanced economies with higher growth and unemployment below 4% for 24 straight months, lower inflation apples to apples. Sperling says there were 4 lessons learned during his work with the White House. The first to avoid harm to workers whose lives get scarred by loss of jobs. This happened in 1982 and again in 2008 after the financial crisis. Unemployment took 6 years to recover after 2008. And he says the unemployment rate was 15% for younger workers. For the first time economists like Sperling and Treasury Secretary Yellen have grasped what workers feel and have gone through. Sperling cites the devastation to people's lives - the mental health, the divorce, the loss of earnings and depression. The new policy after 2020 resulted in the fastest drop in longterm unemployment ever with black and hispanic unemployment reaching record lows by 2023. A first ever national eviction prevention policy led to 20% less evictions than prepandemic. Second Sperling says 650,000 jobs were lost by state and local governments in the three years after 2008 financial crisis. State and local budget cuts and mass layoffs seriously hit the economy. This time in after 2020 1.2 million jobs were added with the money in the Rescue Plan and lost jobs recovered in one third the time it took in 2008. Third state and local governments need to deal with the harm coming from the downturn and after 2008 the cupboard was empty. Whereas after 2008 only 154 cities and counties got help to tackle commericial blight, effects on communities, foreclosure and long term joblessness in 2020 Biden was able to send direct funding to all 20,000 local governments and 15,000 school districts. This helped tackle learning loss, crime, and address mental health needs. What a difference it made. Lastly one needed to anticipate something unexpected to happen that flattened projections of recovery. In 2011 3.7% growth projected was flattened when Sperling was senior adviser, and this was flattened by Fukushima nuclear disaster, Arab Spring spike in oil prices, and debt default negotiations. This time there was cushion in the plan so that when covid variants and unexpected Ukraine war happened the rescue could withstand and deliver with resilience. Growth was 3.4% average for the first 3 years of Biden's term and unemployment went down from 8% to 4% for 24 months. Coming from someone who had seen mistakes happen and corrected them, who had served three presidents and the last Biden ,this is a story of how Sperling, Yellen, with the help of Powell at the Federal Reserve, and the bipartisan support put together by a US president in Congress , one who has served the country in the Senate more than any other recent Senator and led the nation with courage, patience and determination. ...

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Russia stated at a meeting of OPEC oil producers that it would not accept cuts in oil production to stabilize the oil market. The coronavirus effects on the world economy have resulted in a sharp decline in demand for oil. This lack of an agreement among oil producers is leading to a steep drop of 30% in oil prices on March 9, 2020. The Russian position in talks was that it was too early for deep cuts considering that the  true impact of the coronavirus on the world economy was unknown, and that the loss of 1 million bbd from Libya had already reduced production. Experts say the Russians wanted to stabilize oil prices around $50 a barrel and the Saudis a bit higher. Under the OPEC agreement Russia would have to reduce its production by 1.5 million barrels per day (bbd), in addition to 2.1 million bbd from previous cuts that would be extended to March, which it found unacceptable. The impact of the double whammy of continued increase in coronavirus cases around the world and the drop in oil prices as a reflection of business confidence was also felt in world stock markets.  Russia's budget is less sensitive to oil prices than the Saudis. The Saudis need somewhere near $80 per barrel to breakeven. Analysts say Russia does not want to lose market share to American shale oil companies which do not have output cuts and benefit from lower oil prices. Shale oil companies in the U.S. are struggling in the present situation of low prices as many of them need $65 a barrel in price to breakeven. About 208 shale oil companies in the U.S. made bankruptcy filings since 2015.  The oil importing countries with increasing oil imports such as India will benefit from the drop in oil prices. Japan and other oil importing countries in Europe, Africa and Asia will also benefit as Russia and the Saudis go all out to increase production. ...

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This NYT report covers the period around 2019 and since when Tesla established its first factory in China.  It is the remarkable story of how the intuition and rapid decisionmaking  of Huang Li, a top Shanghai official and now premier since 2022, helped China create its own EV industry from scratch. He did this by giving Tesla a start with a new factory in Shanghai with $1.5 billion in incentivized loans and building it in 1 year 2019-2020.  A top Shanghai official Huang Li hoped to attract Tesla to China in 2019 after contacts were opened through California officials. Tesla had its only factory at Fremont, California, and had worked with the state government on a program of emissions credits as a form of financing that it could use. California officials  advocated for a similar policy in China in 2019. With Mr. Li's backing the Tesla factory in Shanghai was built in 1 year, California style emissions credit were put in place in China. What Mr. Huang Li's intuition told him was that China was at a turning point it had to take strong steps for a emissions free auto industry to tackle climate change. A company like Tesla offered an opportunity to do this. The factory was built faster than Chinese time in 1 year and loans of $1.5 billion helped finance this. Li correctly sensed that local supplier chain had to be built giving China a way to build its own EV industry. CATL was a lead supplier to Tesla. By providing assistance to CATL and other suppliers and using China's rapid development model Li was able to build an entire EV vehicle industry from scratch. BYD became through work in the pandemic years the largest EV maker in the world, and CATL the largest battery maker. Tesla provided the impetus which Li took on with the idea of building its own versions to soon overtake Tesla in 4 years between 2020 and 2024. BYD went even further and developed its own in house battery technology to cut costs and bring prices down. ...

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The iphone 16e 2025 for $599 more battery, more camera and larger screen offers more features at the lower end of the price range. One can see this as a phone that helps tackle the cost of living crisis that could hurt Apple sales from buyers with moderate incomes who are cutting back. It could also target a growing middle class buyer segment in India. The e in 16e could stand for economy buyers who want basics in the Apple and could attract upper income buyers of Xiaomi , Huawei and Samsung. Apple iphones have strengths in: seamless ecosytem navigation interface reliable and secure ios software higher resale value Apple discontinues support for older iphones after about 7 years. iPhone 13's can still be used in 2025 4 years old, a good time to change would be by 2026. iPhone 15 was introduced in 2023 which means a good time for changing it is 2028 using a 5 year change which balances the need to update and  update to have access to newer iphones. ...

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China's July 2012 exports were up barely by 1%, over the same month prior year. Exports to the European Union declined by 16.2%. A big problem is cost increases for land, labor and electricity. By 2004 China's exports were growing at a peak rate of 35%. Since then prices of inputs have increased- wages by 150%, land by 70%, and electricity prices by 30%, according to Dragonomics. The yuan appreciated by 30%. Productivity is increasing by about 8% a year, according to the World Bank. As a result of the price increases of inputs the competitiveness of China, with products exported mainly on the basis of price, is deteriorating.

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Drug company is using a new tactic for pricingits narcolepsy drug Provigil. It has increased Provigil's price by 28% in 2008, and 74% more expensive than in 2004. he tactic is to shift users to the longer acting deliberately lower priced longer acting version of Provigil called Nuvigil which has patent protection till 2023. Provigil by contrase faces patent expiration in 2012. This is its way of fighting cheaper generics.

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The drop in the value of the Turkish currency, the lira, hits ordinary Turks as it pushes up the price of food, medicine and other essentials. The lira has dropped by over a third of its value against the dollar in 2021. This is leading to a decline in living standards in Turkey, says this report in WSJ. President Erdogan is pushing an unconventional strategy to increase growth, by having the central bank cut interest rates as the value of lira drops sharply. This could lead to further drops in the lira making it difficult to make dollar debt repayments says this report in WSJ. The problem extends beyond drop in standard of living for average Turks. The country's banks are affected and companies that have borrowed heavily in US dollars and foreign currency denominated debt. A large mismatch between foreign currency debt such as dollar debt and the country's foreign exchange reserves has led to countries such as Argentina falling behind and seeking IMF assistance. WSJ points out that Turkey has about $160 billion in foreign exchange assets, and $280 billion in liabilities as of August 2021, according to the Turkish central bank. Bank lending in foreign currency is 24% to 45% of their total loans in the first half of 2021, according to Fitch Ratings. This could lead to dollar debt rollover difficulties as debt repayment comes due in April 2021. ...