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Greece's GDP was up by 1.7% in the third quarter of 2014, according to Elstat, with the recovery in tourism a major factor. It is now on track to achieve 0.6% growth for 2014, for the first time seeing growth since 2008. Yet the recovery is only beginning as Greece's economy is 30% smaller than in 2008.

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Brazil's GDP increased by 0.34% for the 4th quarter of 2011 from the prior quarter. For the full year GDP increased by 2.7%, with an actual decline in GDP for the third quarter of 0.1%. The GDP growth for 2010 was 7.5%. The slowing economic growth reflects an overvalued currency, weak manufacturing competitiveness, and inflation. Brazil's growth will be lower than potential say analysts, and it will be tough to get to even 3.5% growth in 2012-2013. A similiar process is seen in other emerging markets. China's premier Wen Biao announced lower growth targets of 7.5% and a shift in priorities recently. And India's growth rate for 4th quarter, 2011, was 6.1%.

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Bank of Spain Gov. Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez said Spain finds itself in an "exceptional situation," as it goes "back into recession," and only exports acting to contribute to gains in GDP.

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Lucie Castets, candidate for prime minister of the largest parliamentary group in the National Assembly of France, the NFP,  is interviewed in The Guardian. Kim Willsher interviews Lucie Castets at a cafe in the Marais district of Paris.  Castets says- “France is a rich country but people are getting increasingly poor, they don’t know if there’s going to be a teacher in front of their kids, they don’t know how long they’re going to wait in casualty if they break a leg, they don’t know how much their salary will be in a year. Who can accept that? Well apparently, Emmanuel Macron accepts that, but I think it’s unacceptable.” A government is needed in France for a budget to be passed by January 2025. A caretaker government of Macron's party cannot do this following its poor showing in the recent election. Macron refuses to let NFP form a government with outside support saying he was doing this for "institutional stability." Macron wants to see cuts of $25 billion. The NFP wants to spend $150 billion for the government to meet the needs of the people. It would like the US, recover most or all of this $150 billion from higher taxes for the ultra rich, and billionaires which would not affect 95% of the French people.  Castets says- Castets rejects the ideas this would be “impossible to apply or finance” and cost jobs. “We will finance each measure with new revenue, unlike the government. The accusation of economic irresponsibility irritates me because that’s not what we’re proposing at all. The NFP’s programme was heavily attacked on this aspect, so it’s important to say that these measures will only affect the ultra-rich. We want to correct flagrant tax injustices, with billionaires paying a lower percentage of tax than the middle classes.”   ...

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Cold weather dampened U.S. economic growth in the 4th quarter, with the initial reading of 3.2% seasonally adjusted annual growth in GDP revised to a reading of 2.4% by the Commerce Department. Projections by economists are for even lower growth of 2% in the 1st quarter from the cold weather, which was the worst in 35 years for some parts of the north and midwestern U.S. Consumer spending adjusted for inflation increased by 2.6%, and the savings rate dropped by one percentage point from the average of the last 3 years to 4.5%. Government spending and investment declined by 12.8%, as efforts to reduce the deficit continued. Offsetting this, and the bright spot here was more business investment on equipment, software and buldings of 7.3%, and exports up by 9.4%. GDP in the 4th quarter was up 2.5% from the prior year and unemployment rate was 6.6% in Jan 2014. Overall assessment was cautiously optimistic for the U.S. economy at the beginning of the sixth year following the global financial crisis of 2008....

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Germany Economy Minister Peter Altmaier says Germany expects a shallower recession. GDP in 2020  is expected to be down by 5.8% much lower than the 10-15% in other countries. Exports in June were up by 15% to China and down by 20% to the U.S. Economies of Spain and the UK are expected to see twice the decline in GDP in 2020. Italy and Germany are seeing a increase in manufacturing output, Spain and France a decline. 

Still Germany remains exposed to other trading partners than China, such as the U.S. and Britain, total exports are expected to be down 12% in 2020. About 11% of workers are using short term work subsidies to stay at home. Cases of the virus are surging in France and Spain. In Germany there is a surge but it is slowing since last week. Mr. Altmaier thinks Germany can avoid a second lockdown.

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Latin America is hit hard by the pandemic. About 20% of the region's companies will close down or about 2.7 million companies, and loss of 8.5 million jobs. GDP decline in 2020 of about 10% is expected.

All the statistics of a fall in poverty in Latin America that used to be cited by economists have proved to have no good foundations. Even before the pandemic the economies of Argentina and Brazil were in trouble. The pandemic has worsened the situation. It shows how important it is for countries in Latin America to build on strong foundations of education, health care and good governance. With fall in trade and in tax income the debt to GDP levels are expected to go up from 57% to 70% and 30% drop in earnings coming from relatives overseas to support families at home, resulting in great difficulties. 

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India has one of the tightest lockdowns in the world, Google activity data around retail locations shows mobility down 55% compared to 18% in the U.S. Yet cases are surging and are at a high of 10,000 per day for the last week with deaths up from 600 a day to 1000. 

With consumers preparing for the long run there is less spending and more money going into saving. Sales of everything from shampoo to cars are down. Sales of Suzuki in India are down 83%, and smartphone sales down by 51% in the second quarter of 2020.

GDP is expected to be down by 7% for the fiscal year to March 2021 similar to GDP declines in Europe and the U.S. 

As consumer spending declines the government is planning increasing spending on much needed infrastructure.

 

 

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What Krugman makes of the $1.089 trillion dollar U.S. deficit for fiscal year ending in Sept. 2012. He points out that the U.S. can have a stable to declining debt to GDP ratio with $400 billion debt. He cites the Clinton years (1992-2000) when the debt to GDP ratio declined from 49% to 33% with steady growth. What about the remaining $600 billion. He attributes this mostly to temporary factors which are reversible as growth picks up. Of this remaining excess deficit he says $400 billion is from lower tax payments to Treasury because of the 2008 economic crisis and the recession that followed. This includes the payroll tax cut which is also temporary to keep up consumer spending in the recession. The $150 billion is from unemployment insurance, food stamps, and other aid which is also reversed once growth picks up. He places emphasis on restoring economic growth as early as possible and reducing unemployment and using the recession for business to continue to invest in R&D, productivity, and government to preserve the social fabric, invest in education, and provide incentives for growth. S&P Nov. 8 report says the net government debt to GDP ratio is estimated to be over 80% in 2013. It will have to stabilize at current levels for S&P to preserve the U.S. credit rating, says S&P executive Chambers. The higher debt to GDP ratio in 2013 and lower growth rates expected makes the situation different from the lower debt to GDP ratios during the Clinton period. Britain, France and other major industrialized nations with political parties at either end of the political specrum have also chosen to stabilize or reduce debt to GDP ratios rather than take on the risks of them going much higher. The U.S. has the added problem of health care costs out of control with an aging population and about 17.9% of GDP going to healthcare costs in 2010 expected to increase significantly, as Medicare actuaries estimate enrollee numbers jump to 80 million in 2030 from 50 million in 2012. Democrats and Republicans have largely sidestepped this underlying problem in fiscal cliff negotiations....

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With a mere 1% of GDP invested in public healthcare India remains backward in its commitment to the welfare of the rural poor. Prime minister's Modi's plan is laudable says this BBC report, but the record of implementation is spotty at best at the state level for such plans. The new plan announced in the 2018 Indian Budget is for a health plan covering 500 million Indians with 5 lakh rupees coverage, something never tried before but with a cost of a mere $1.7 billion is something that the country woefully lacked or neglected to tackle.

This plan may be better implemented at the national level, and particularly where the reputation of the governing party and its plans for industrialization are at stake in the coming year's national elections. If accomplished and the Modi government is eager to take on these challenges it would be a significant step to balanced and overall development of the Indian economy.

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Two months of lockdown will cost France 120 billion euros. 

France's Budget Minister says debt will reach 9% of gross economic output in 2020.

Throughout the financial crisis in the eurozone France was restricted to keep the deficit under 3 percent and public debt at 60% of GDP -with some flexibility but with warnings- under the Stability and Growth Pact of 1997 fiscal rules underpinning the European Monetary Union. Today the debt is at 115% of GDP up from 100% before the crisis. 

Now the deficit will be three times the 3% envisaged by SGP.

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Weak capital expenditure by Japanese corporations reduced economic growth in the second quarter of 2013. GDP growth was at an annualized rate of 2.6% in the second quarter of 2013, declining from 3.8% in the first quarter 2013. Compared with the prior quarter the Japanese economy growth was 0.6%. Consumption growth was 0.8%, but capital expenditures declined by 0.1%.

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Bank of America CEO, Brian Moynihan sees economic growth at 2.5% for the U.S. in 2014, and global economic growth for GDP at 3.5%. He expects the Fed to continue its bond buying program in 2014 to prevent any backsliding in economic growth in the U.S.

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Germany's president Steinmeier is emerging as a key figure in the current effort to form a majority government in Germany under chancellor Merkel, reports Griff Witte in the Washington Post. This is because the FDP under Lindner with 11% of the vote has pulled out of the coalition talks, and the only alternative is for the SPD to change its position and agree to join the talks. Under Schulz the SPD has for 2 months turned down any effort to join the coalition talks. Partly because the SPD has not done well in recent elections and lost some of its worker base support. Some in the SPD have blamed this on the previous coalitions with the CDU party of Merkel. Steinmeier is a leader from the SPD who was foreign minister in the previous coalition of the CDU-SPD, and has greater influence on the SPD.  Steinmeier has pushed all parties to make another effort. This includes the SPD and Schulz now says the SPD shoulders "a responsibility to the country." After some prodding by Steinmeier and a 8 hour party meeting the SPD now says it will not say no to the talks. One SPD leader, a former mayor of Munich, says the SPD should be careful about what it says because we don't want to sound like "an agitated heap of chickens." In that case Schulz may step aside. ...

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Britain and Britain's parliament now faces some tough choices as the economic costs of Brexit are spelled out by government and Bank of England forecasts. Already GDP per person is below what it would have been without the Brexit vote by some 2%, according to the Centre for European Reform think tank. The main problem is the expected drop in trade with the European Union of as much as 40%. Ending free movement also curbs European immigration, and add to this a drop in foreign investment. The government says the cost of the deal with the EU made by prime minister Theresa May could cost 2.7% in loss for GDP per head. Estimates range from 1.7% to 3%. A loss of 3% comes to an average annual loss at 2016 prices of 1090 British pounds per head. Worse a no deal Brexit could see this jump to 8.1%, according to the government. The Bank of England agrees and says the pound would go down by a quarter. Offsets from Britain making free trade deals are pathetically small of only only 0.2% if at all, and o.1% from likely deregulation. Not a picture that makes Brexit anything but a chaotic option for Britain. ...

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Britain's GDP declined by 0.7% in the second quarter of 2012.

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The exit of Greece from the eurozone would cost Germany $127 billion or 3% of GDP, according to economists at a German bank. Francois Baroin, departing finance minister of France, estimated the cost for France to be $50 billion, or 3% of GDP. The costs in terms of disorderly exit in how it impacts Spain and Italy in financial markets is less certain.

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BJP led by prime minister Narendra Modi wins a huge majority of 325 seats out of 405 in India's largest state Uttar Pradesh for the state assembly elections. The national opposition party Congress wins only 7 seats in what was once the main source of Congress support during the period of Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi. This will enable the BJP to push forward with the modernization program for infrastructure and roads, and other development. Opposition in the upper house Rajya Sabha and lack of support from states will not be a major hurdle in development now that BJP has won in states such as Orissa, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarkhand in recent state elections after its win in the 2014 national parliamentary election. This also gives credibility to the government's other efforts such as demonetisation to fight corruption in real estate and other areas. India's GDP is a fraction of China's and it is smaller than that of countries such as Indonesia, because of the poor administration and lack of development in India's 2 largest states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in the northern Hindi speaking region. To double the GDP from its current level will require doubling the GDP of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Bihar's state government is run by a former BJP leader, who has also pushed for improving standards of living and economic growth.  ...

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Japan votes for continuity as the LDP party elects Mr. Abe's cabinet secretary, Yoshihide Suga, as the new prime minister. Mr. Abe resigned because of ill health after serving for a long period.

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Italy's GDP stopped 8 consecutive quarters of decline in the third quarter of 2013, according to Istat. GDP did not change in the third quarter of 2013 compared to the prior quarter and declined 1.8% from the prior year quarter. This was a result of exports and inventory build up with increased confidence in industry to increase production. The industrial sector showed a 0.2% gain, and household spending declined by 0.2%

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Government data show that the German GDP declined by 0.5% in the thrid quarter after declining 0.4% in the second quarter. IMF predicts GDP decline of 0.8% in 2009. Germany's recession look like the worst in Europe except for the UK which has many of the same problems as the US economy. Germany's housing market has seen prices grow by almost zero in the last 10 years and German consumers are not in debt so Germany felt fairly immune to the troubles facing the US and the UK and Spain. But Germany is a big exporter and it has become more dependent on exports in the last 10 years. Exports account for 41% of GDP and CHina sucked up alot of machinery exports from Germany and China is in the midst of a drastic slowdown. In fact for the first time China is seeing a decline in monthly electricity output. And China's GDP growth rate may go from 12% to the range of somewhere around 6% in 2009, considering that Chinese export factories are closing down as the USA its main export market is seeing a rapid slowdown. Its already reached 9% and the slowdown is just beginning as the US market is also at the beginning of its slowdown. As the US market declines further in 2009 China's export factories will face a further decline in orders. Comparing the US at 10%, Japan at 20% and Germany at 41% of GDP one can see how heavily dependent the Germans have become on exports, especially with Asia's booming economies sucking up German exports. New orders for German goods declined by 18% from their peak in November 2007. And this is just the beginnning. So German unemployment is expected to increase. Its true that German banks invested heavily in mortgage related securities and other risky assets abroad, and the international financial crisis has led to a bailout fund of 500 billion euros setup by the German government. But Bundesbank figures show that what is causing the drastic contraction is the drop in investment spending as loan demand has dropped. ...

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As the federal revenues rise to about 18.1% of GDP (close to historical rates after return to growth) and outlays to offset the effects of the 2008 recession diminishing, the deficit is forecast to drop to 3% of GDP in 2014, and 2.6% in 2015, close to the average for the last 40 years. The deficit is estimated to be total $514 billion for fiscal year 2014, declining from $1.4 trillion in 2009. Real GDP growth (adjusting for inflation) of 3% is forecast for 2014-2017. In 2018 and the years to 2024 the deficit will increase because the pace of growth slows, and spending will increase- slower growth of the labor force as the population ages, increasing health care costs, subsidies for health care, and increasing cost to service debt. Outlays other than for health care, Social Security and interest payments on debt for year 2016-2024, are set to be the lowest percentage of GDP since 1940, according to the CBO report in 2014. Debt will increase to 79% of GDP by 2024 from an estimate of 74% for 2014. CBO projects unemployment only slowly decreasing, remaining above 6% till late 2016, with the rate of participation in the labor force- lower now because many people have opted to not look for work discouraged by the job prospects- slow to recover....

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It might not all make sense that the Pakistan/China mediated ceasefire conditions (including US and Israeli condition of no nuclear weapons development and ballistic missile development) are really not known even in the media today, only known to the Iranian government and the US government. In these conditions Iran's government gets to show that it had achieved its goals, even with enormous reconstruction costs of the damage done during the war. DJT had pointed to a sort of regime change in Iran after most of the earlier leadership has been removed, and new leaders in place who are keen on setting up conditions for their own administration replacing the old one.  Over the period 2027-2030 the prospect is real that China, India and Japan may shift their oil supplies sources to other regions, increase conservation per unit of GDP, and increase supplies of renewable energy, steps already taken by Germany over the last decade. Most media looks only what happens today and in 2026. This may be the last of the Middle East Wars before Europe and the US, and India, China, Japan shift away from the Middle East to get supplies of fossil fuels, and it may bring new renewables technologies that reduce the dependence on fossil fuels to the point of making a true transition to renewable energy. It may also be the last of the Middle East Wars in the sense that people of European nations and the US insist on no involvement in MIddle East as a sort of quagmire for squandering American, European and Asian vital resources of people and capital, ample example being given over the last 40 years. Considering the costs of the war and the moral cost of destroying infrastructure such as power plants that hurt the local population more than the regime in power, China, Japan, the US, and EU, India may find it is easier to race each other in coming up with alternative supplies and shifting to renewable energy faster than planned, making Middle Eastern oil supplies  and volatility in prices redundant, which would be a good thing after the hugely negative and costly experience of the last 50 years of dependence.     ...

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UK underinvestment in health care infrastructure and NHS is leading to it "underperforming significantly," says a King's fund health thinktank study. UK annual capital spending in healthcare is about 0.33% of GDP in 2019 compared to 0.65% in the US. A lack of doctors and nurses is a severe problem for the NHS in UK.

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French prime minister Edouard Philippe says that France will meet the 3% of GDP deficit target in 2017 and this will require restraint in spending. Over the 5 year term of president Macron France will cut spending by 3% of GDP. The new government still plans to meet investment and tax cuts that were planned, including a $50 billion euro investment program. Over the 5 year term taxes will decline by 1% of GDP, said Philippe.