LyrArc Article Gist
Raghuram Rajan, Professor of Finance at the Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, was appointed chief economist at the IMF in 2003. He presented a paper, titled "Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier," at the annual Jackson Hole meeting of economists and central bankers for 2005. Rajan says he had planned to write about how financial developments during Greenspan's 18 year old tenure had made things safer, but the more he looked the more evidence came up that the risk reward relationships in a normal functioning financial market had been terribly distorted. Market participants were being rewarded for wins but were not being asked to take on commensurate risks and impacts on their bonuses and rewards. He also cautioned about the use of credit default swaps which acted as insurance against bond defaults, and said insurers were generating big returns on this but with the appearance of little risk- even though the pain could be immense in a default. Banks were carrying credit securties on their books that posed risks to the whole financial system if things went wrong with the credit securities. Reaction from the gathering was unfavorable. Lawrence Summers, a former Treasury Secretary said, "the basic, slightly lead eyed premise of the paper was misguided."...

LyrArc Article Gist
The median net worth of Hispanic and Black families has been severely affected by the recession. Because minorities hold a much larger part of their assets in household equity the foreclosure crisis and the recession have had a devastaing impact on both minority groups. The median net worth of Hispanic families dropped by two thirds and black families by half after the 2008 recession from the 2005 figures, and was around $6000 for 2009 for both groups, according to data from the Pew Research Center. The Pew report shows median net worth of a white family is 20 times that of a black family, and 18 times that of a Hispanic family, with the gap between these minorities and whites twice as large in 2009 compared to the period before the recession in 2005. This was even true for Asian American families, whose median net worth dropped by half from 2005 to 2009, to $78,000. The figure for whites dropped much less from $135,000 to $113,000 during the same period. Another significant finding is that within each group the share of the wealthiest 10% of the people increased between 2005 and 2009, for all households this went up from 49% to 56%, for Hispanics from 56% to 72%, for Blacks from 59% to 67%....

LyrArc Article Gist
On his last full day in office president Biden says at a church in Charleston, North Carolina-

“We know the struggle for redeeming the soul of this nation is difficult and ongoing. The distance is short between peril and possibility. But faith — faith teaches us the America of our dreams is always closer than we think.”

We must hold on to hope. We must stay engaged. Must always keep the faith in a better day to come. I’m not going anywhere. I’m not kidding.”

(Biden is 82 years, DJT 78 years, Senator Bernie Sanders 82 years, and Senator Chuck Grassley, chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee 91 years).

“I’ve always heard before, ‘We’ve come too far from where we started.  Nobody told me the road would be easy.’ I don’t believe — I don’t believe He brought me this far to leave me."

LyrArc Article Gist
Risks to the economies of western Europe through the banking system and its lending to Eastern European economies are growing. The Easter European economies that are collapsing are Europe's version of the sub prime crisis in the USA. This may ricochet back to the United States as European institutional investors pull money out of the US stock market. Europan banks could suffer a further increase in nonperforming loans, and need further recapitalization from their governments, which are already hardpressed by demands for shoring up the social safey nets, stimulus spending and bank rescues. Big institutional investors in Western Europe, the banks, pension funds and insurance companies, hold large amounts of Eastern European debt, and further infusions of capital from western governments would put increasing pressure on the Euro.

LyrArc Article Gist
On the back of 18% growth in deliveries in Eastern Europe and 28% in Asia, VW increased operating profits for its core VW passenger car brand. This increased to 461 million euros even when sales declined in the US and Western Europe. Shows that German manufacturers can do well as long as the Asian, South American markets and Eastern European markets hold up well, as the US is entering a recession and exchange rates are unfavorable for manufacture in the euro region and export to the USA.

LyrArc Article Gist
With Labour leading in polls Mr. Johnson faces a no confidence motion in parliament after 53 Tory members called for the motion. No elections are planned before Jan 2025. There are no choices for the Tories other than Mr. Johnson who could hold his broad coalition of working class districts in the north of England and affluent districts in London. Mr. Johnson has also taken England through the pandemic, vaccination drive, and pandemic aid programs to help the UK recover, which he reminded Tory members of parliament.  The partygate scandal refers to parties that Mr. Johnson says never happened but took place during the worst part of the pandemic which have created an impression of callous behaviour and disregard of rules. The Conservatives face another problem in that the US and the EU including countries such as Denmark, Germany and France are moving in a direction that favors leaders who are promoting a revival of manufacturing locally, creating local jobs instead of job shifting overseas, increasing minimum wage, and promoting interests of workers and families. Labor had lost credibility during the Blair years similar to SPD losing credibility during the Schroder years, France's Socialists losing credibility under Hollande, and the Democrats under Clinton-Obama, and a general loss of credibility of socialist leaders who failed to work for the interests of workers and families. Biden, Scholz, the German Greens under Habeck, and French under Melenchon are changing this today wtih a new and genuine commitment of respect for the dignity of workers and families, and women. There may be a sense of unease among Tories about how long the working class districts in the north of England will vote Tory when no investments are being made to fulfill the promises Boris Johnson has made. Yet Tories have no alternate leader and may be stumbling their way into the remaining part of their period in office as Britons look for a new future where the massive investments needed in manufacturing locally and in infrastructure take place to benefit workers and families. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
As the British parliament prepares to vote on Brexit deal put forward by prime minister Theresa May, Joanna Sugden summarizes what is expected as the next step if parliament rejects it.  Why are a faction Conservative members opposed to it? There is the Irish backstop which they oppose. Keeping open the border between the two Irelands- Northern Ireland as part of Britain and Ireland as a EU country is important to preserve peace achieved through the Good Friday Agreement between the Catholic and Protestant communities.May wants to keep the border open. Far right Conservatives see this as keeping Britain connected to the EU in some way which they oppose. They stubbornly hold onto this view. Add to this the opposition from the Remain campaign which sees leaving the EU as bad for Britain's economic future. Some Leave supporters now see the dangers of Brexit, especially leaving with no deal made with the EU. Most of the Labour Party members fall into this group. What happens if parliament rejects May's deal by a small margin? The deal would be renegotiated with the EU to tweak it for more support. What happens if parliament rejects it with a huge margin? This would result in several options. May could call a general election. Britain could have a second referendum on Brexit. Or in a chaotic situation Britain could leave the European Union without a deal altogether, something everyone wants to avoid because of the disruptions it would cause. May is using this risk as  a way to persuade reluctant MP's but it may not work.     ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Wolfgang Ischinger, former German ambassador to the U.S. 2001-2006 and president of the Munich Security Conference, says that one thing that would make a difference in the current state of German and European relations with the U.S. after NSA spying on chancellor Merkel, is for president Obama to show contrition. The continuing dynamics are important, as is evident in the deterioration in relations in 2003 following the American intervention in Iraq when not enough was done, says Ischinger. His view is that the proposals to limit diplomatic personnel of the U.S. in European countries, or putting on hold the Trans-Atlantic trade talks, are not good ideas as they do not help restore trust. Building on a report by the European parliament in 2001 on protections against intelligence operations would be a good start.

LyrArc Article Gist
Britain's 2013 budget provides some benefits to home buyers. Chancellor of the Exchequer Osborne says the Bank of England will have more leeway with its inflation target to aid economic growth. Britain's Office of Budget Responsibility says growth will be down to 0.6% in 2013, and 1.8% in 2014. This is a result of weak exports to the eurozone and decline in consumer spending. The government now expects to borrow 240 billion pounds more than forecast for the 5 year period ending April 2016, as a result of the weaker economy. Debt as a percentage of GDP will not decline by 2015 as planned earlier, it will be 2018 before this happens. Osborne said: the plan "is taking longer than anyone hoped. But we must hold to the right track."

LyrArc Article Gist
Garry Wills doesn't like what he saw in the Bush Presidency with the elder Bush's advisor Dick Cheney having an influential role and almost independent powers within the Bush Presidency. What happens if the executive power has a former President and a newly elected President in the White House. He says that question was resolved in favor of not having this kind of plural Presidency when James Wilson of Pennsylvania's argument that executive power could best be checked with accountability in one individual as President was accepted by the framers of the Constitution. There appears to be a alienation from having a repeat of the Bushes Presidency in a Clintons Presidency among older white male voters, is this a trend that will hold true for the rest of the year?

LyrArc Article Gist
A look at the role that David Cameron played in the Brexit vote. Cameron did this by promising to hold a referendum to assuage hard line Tories within his Conservative Party in Britain who feared that the right wing Independence Party of Nigel Farage would cut into the Tory vote and hand the 2015 election over to the Labour Party. Cameron made the pledge in 2013. The Brexit vote referendum happened in June 2016 with a slight margin for the "Leave" vote as voters shifted to an anti-establishment vote, and a wave of immigration from Africa and Arab countries in conflicts into Europe created fears of uncontrolled immigration. Both were factors that had little to do with Britain's place in Europe over decades in post war Europe, and not permanent shifts in sentiment. Cameron agreed because he thought the would lead to a result favoring the Remain Vote to stay in the European Union. Cameron badly miscalculated leading to the mess Britain is in today with no clear path forward and negative effects on the economy of Britain. The Labour Party now favors a second referendum as voter sentiment again shifts following the failure of the Theresa May Conservative government to lead in the way forward, and splits in the Conservative Party. Immigration from Arab countries and Africa is now restricted and down to a small trickle. The problems generated by Brexit for the economy, Northern Ireland, business uncertainty, and second thoughts among pro-Brexit supporters, are leading to a rethink of the course set by the referendum based on a temporary shift in sentiment. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Politico magazine says wealth inequality is a worse situation than a country's income inequality. By this measure the situation has deteriorated badly in the U.S. It cites a study by Thomas Piketty of France with Saez and Zucman, showing that a shocking 75% of household wealth, and 97% of capital income-income generated from dividends, interest and capital gains- is concentrated in the top 10% of households in America. More shocking it says is another study showing that nearly 50% of American households could not come up with $400 in an emergency to meet and unexpected expense, while a tiny fraction controls trillions of dollars in assets. Why is this important? Beyond the obvious short term immediate needs there is the need to build a plan for the future, to be resilient in the face of a job loss or major illness, to seek higher education for job retraining,  to save for a home to retire.  In America the history shows that for most of its history since the founding fathers, in the 1750's the situation was that of a rising tide for all sections of society interrupted by the breakdown during post tech boom failures in the 1890's and 1930's. This is embodied in the Declaration of Independence itself the perception of this as something to be taken for granted- "we hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men were created equal and endowed by their creator with certain inalienable rights ..." One proposal is for a universal income. Others are for employees to have ownership in the business that they work for and contribute their skills. Setting up Permanent Funds that pay dividends to all citizens of a state. Some of these proposals are being considered in Britain by the Labour Party, and Democrats in the U.S. as they forge ways to tackle the rising inequality in Britain after a decade of austerity cuts, and in the U.S. after the tech boom and regional inequality.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Consumer spending boom is over and when you look at the detail in the government numbers on spending consumer spending is already declining. So the idea that consumer stocks like P&G, J&J and Coca Cola and Kimberly Clark will hold up better than other stocks is a mirage. Just this week the idea that stocks of companies doing a lot of business overseas and in infrastructure will hold up better turned out to be an illusion as GE fell by 12% in one day, April 11, 2008, because of earnings shortfalls in its finance units as a result of the new climate in the credit and financial markets. Consumers spent heavily. If consumer spending had continued the trends from the 1990's then it would have gone up $3 trillion less today. It would have been 70% ratio of household debt to GDP, right now its close to 97% of GDP. Some of this $3 trillion estimate of Business Week economist Mandel using Fed data will be what the American consumer will be dealing with as he reduces spending in the years ahead. According to OECD data the ratio of household liabilities to disposable income (charts P11 of BW, April 21, 2008) is close to 1.0 in France and Germany which is contrary to what one would expect considering the more conservative spending there especially Germany, exceeds 1.0 in Japan, and far exceeds 1.0 in the US, and in Canada aabout 1.3, with the highest ratio in Britain at a whopping 1.7, using a ballpark view of the charts. This suggests that Britain is way off the charts in spending, see the link to this so expect spending to be hit hardest in Britain and with financial services being a bigger part of the GDP and the economy in Britain expect higher unemployment in Britain than the rest of Europe....

LyrArc Article Gist
Alan Meltzer is a respected voice on US Federal Reserve policies since the time Paul Volcker was Fed chairman He says the Bernanke Fed is making some serious policy mistakes. The first is concentrating on near term events, such as business response to Obama administration policies, over which it has little influence, while neglecting the long term consequences of its policies. The second is its effort to tackle unemployment by interpreting its mandate as a dual mandate of tackling both unemployment and inflation. By tackling one at a time, he says, the Fed is likely to fail totally. The US is unlikely to not feel the inflation that is going on around the world. By ignoring the changes in money supply growth the Fed is making another mistake. His advice is for the Fed to increase interest rates it controls to 1%, to signal that it is aware of inflation risks. Second, the Fed should annonce a specific, detailed plan explaining how it will reduce $900 billon of the $1 trillion banks continue to hold in excess of the legally required reserves. Third, the Fed should end QE II, the most recent round of treasury bond purchases. Meltzer says if the Fed waited for two more months in Nov 2010, it would have found that a double dip recession was not about to occcur and it could have held off from pursuing QE II. Meltzer emphasizes that slow growth and unemployment is not a monetary problem, because of the ample liquidity already in the financial system. Uncertainty about government policy and the future direction has been clarified by the election which will help put the economy back on track. Philadelphia Fed chairman expresses similiar views in other articles and an interview with O'Grady of WSJ....

LyrArc Article Gist
Dell is more dependent on corporate buying of PC's than HP and Acer. In todays world companies tend to hold onto their older PC's for longer and this affects Dell's PC sales. Dell was slow to adapt to the changes in the PC industry, where preconfigured laptops could be made at lower cost in China than at Dell's factories on customized basis. HP and Acer moved quickly into these Chinese factories, and Dell was a latecomer to contract manufacturing. Michael Dell returned to day to day responsibilities and he has made several changes. Dell is increasing its retail presence, and acquired Perot Systems for $3.9 billion in 2009 to expand in the services business. Company demand is improving gradually and Desktop PC sales went up 13% and laptop sales up 18% in the first quarter compared to 2009 same quarter.

LyrArc Article Gist
Dubai has been on a borrowing binge the likes of which has rarely been seen in the middle east. It has no oil and gas reserves of its own. Then how is it financing all this investment? Through international debt markets. Standard and Poors estimates that at then end of last year Dubai government debt was 42% of its GDP, compared with 22% in Bahrain still high ad only 2.9% in Abu Dhabi. Would a sovereign fund of Abu Dhabi come to its rescue in a crunch if credit is frozen and no acess possible. Dubai is one of the United Arab Emirates and this is possible but this would mean that much less capital that can be accessed by western companies. And still most of the huge projects would be left incomplete or put on hold.

LyrArc Article Gist
Jazan is one of the cities that is supposed to come right out of a 40 square mile area on the Red Sea coastline right out of desert scrubland. It is planned to hold a $30 billion industrial zone that will be a place where hundreds of thousands of people live. It will hold a $4.5 billion aluminium smelter run by China's Chalco., and aslo hold a steel plant and an oil refinery. Currently the area is near a mountainous area which has 1.2 million people with about 20% unemployment.

LyrArc Article Gist
Boeing deals with supplier delays as suppliers around the world have themselves outsourced some of their work to other suppliers which Boeing had not expected or in some cases decided to let the suppliers handle the way they best saw fit. Global outsourcing was supposed to be an improved and faster method of putting together a new airplane and Boeing still thinks that when the problems are worked out this will hold true. Meantime Boeing is throwing money and engineers almost $2 billion to help suppliers iron out these problems. Airbus also faces production problems from Europe wide outsourcing and coordinating between the German and French parts of Airbus who had difficult working together with differnet styles approaches and methods which was resolved by having the French group help the German group to come upto speed as documented earlier this year in the Wall Street Journal. See link.

LyrArc Article Gist
The struggle of France's newspaper "Le Monde" to survive after losses for the last seven years to 2008. Daily circulation has declined 9% from 2003 to 354,000 in 2008. Compared to Germany and the U.S., newspapers draw a smaller number of readers, with 181 per 1000 people subscribing to newspapers in France, 371 in Germany, 274 in the U.S. Strategies pursued are to sell stakes to Lagardere, and Spanish media group Prisa. Le Monde was started in 1954 with directions from Charles de Gaulle to be the "conscience of France." As a result its sharehoders are mainly its journalists holding a 60.4% stake. Prisa and Largardere each hold a 18% stake. Losses in 2007 were 15 million euros. Strategies are to focus on news and world events and reduce sports coverage, and integrate the newspaper with the website, Lemonde.fr., which has 4.5 million unique vistors per month, according to Mediametrie.

LyrArc Article Gist
Proposals being considered by the Obama administration for overhaul of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. One proposal being considered is to keep Fannie and Freddie in a reduced role with safeguards such as an insurance pool of money created by a fee the firms would charge mortgage lenders and banks. The insurance pool would act as a fund to cover losses before the government stepped in. Another safeguard would be to require the firms to hold adequate reserves to cover potential losses. The earlier preferential advantage for Fannie where it ony needed to keep a fraction of the reserves banks had to keep would be eliminated. Under this proposal both firms would shrink their mortgage portfolios over coming years. The White House says it wants to see a winding down of Fannie and Freddie and let private capital be at the heart of a new housing system.

LyrArc Article Gist
To help growth in the present situation of the pandemic the U.S. central bank is adopting a new policy of letting inflation float above 2%. Interest rates will be kept low for a longer period to support jobs and growth. Jerome Powell the head of the Federal Reserve announced the new policy.  Powell is mainly concerned about jobs. He sees a lot of difficulty in the services sector as jobs are lost. It will take time for this sector to recover. This is "a strategy where undershoots are not forgotten" Powell told the Jackson Hole gathering, meaning that the Fed in contrast to current policy will adopt a strategy of staying with a goal of full employment till the people who are lagging behind in regaining employment are back on the boat with the rest. In the past these people were left to fend for themselves, even when the loss of work was due to no fault of their own- crises from banks overlending and losing money as in 2009, or today because of a virus from Wuhan.  This is the part of economic policy that resonates in the country today and it shows that the Fed is on board in the effort to revive the American economy putting the people first as in the early years after the second world war when national unity prevailed under both Truman and Eisenhower. Powell uses both economic jargon about "a long tail" and common sense language in a way few central bank presidents have in America. He says the Fed is looking at "a long tail of a couple of years at least" during which he says the Fed will "stay with these people, the millions of people still looking for work." No mathematical formulas will be used. Just plain common sense and putting the people of America first, which is just what is needed. Mathematical economics have taken America nowhere. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Rates are increasing in the $4 trillion repurchase agreement market. The repurchase agreement market or repos market is the main source of short term funding for firms in the financial markets. Borrowers put up Treasury securities as collateral. The difference beween the value of the collateral and the cash loan amount is known as the "haircut." The current collateral requirement is $102 of Treasurys for $100 in cash loan. If the U.S. is downgraded to AA the collateral could go up to $103 or higher. This would lead to firms coming up with more Treasury securities for loans. The rate for overnight transactions also goes up. The rate was up form 0.01 % to 0.1% in the last week. The result could be dislocation in financial markets as firms have to come up with more collateral and pay higher repo rates, and some firms prefer to hold cash.

LyrArc Article Gist
Christie's London based head of wine, David Elswood, says what he has seen in the last year from Chinese buyers is people paying virtually any price for wine. He calls this uncontrolled spending. Value of wine auctions reached $120 million in 2010, double the $64 million in 2009. Auction houses Sotheby's and Christie's say their auctions of wine in Hong Kong will raise more than sales in London and New York combined. Sales broke auction records at an Oct 29 auction, when three bottles of Chateau Lafite's 1869 vintage each sold for a record $230,000. The number of billionaires in China jumped by 60% in 2010 and this is inflating the bubble in wine. Chinese collectors now hold one in 4 bottles of vintage wine globally, according to Crown Wine Cellars. This company stores HK$1 billion of wine in a network of converted ammunition bunkers in Hong Kong.

LyrArc Article Gist
T-Mobile plans to spend $4 billion to upgrade its wireless network to LTE. The failed plan to merge with AT&T has affected T-Mobile because plans to upgrade its network were put on hold. As a result T-Mobile will be 2 years behind Verizon in upgrading to LTE and will be the last wireless network upgrading. Contract customers declined in the 4th quarter of 2011 by 802,000 with all the uncertainty surrounding the merger. AT&T made a cash payment to T-Mobile of 2.3 billion euros for the failed merger. However the situation has turned out negatively for Deutsche Telekom because of a 2.3 billion writedown in the value of T-Mobile USA ,and an additional 800 million euro writedown in Europe. If T-Mobile decides to offer the Apple iPhone to attract contract customers additional financial commitments will have to be made.

LyrArc Article Gist
German chancellor Merkel is interviewed by DW.com's Max Hofmann as her 16 year period as Germany's leader comes to a close. She discusses immigration to Germany, climate change and other issues. Not discussed are the issues of neglect of infrastructure and failure in preserving upward mobility in Germany society during that period. She is described as a "compromise machine," which she refutes by saying "I'm not a machine, of course, but... a human being." Through compromise she was able to extend the Christian Democrats hold on power for this long. Yet for much of the time she kept the Social Democrats, who were lacking in conviction at the time for real upward mobility, out of power; by compromises that meant she would do just so much not enough on social values. In the end her party the CDU fell to a low of about 22% support of Germans in the 2021 election. The Greens with more conviction and the Social Democrats surpassed the CDU under Baerbock and vice chancellor Scholz. Her achievements came reluctantly in the end in the face of the coronavirus pandemic. This time she put all her convictions and support behind the German and European Union financial package for trillions of euros of support that would enable Europe to get back on its feet after the pandemic's devastation. This may be her singular achievement, long after everything else is forgotten. Yet not one word of this interview talks about this achievement made with the full conviction of both Scholz and Merkel. Scholz and Baerbock will lead a new Social Democrat+ Greens coalition that will finally rebuild Germany along new lines on pillars of social mobility, infrastructure building, and climate change action for the New Germany. Baerbock is just 40 years, and Germany now moves to be run by a new generation so unlike the last in conviction and vision, and more in line with the vision and aspirations after World War II. With both Willy Brandt's vision of the Social Democrats, and the vision of Konrad Adenauer of the Christian Democrats, now carried forward with the help of the Greens Baerbock and the young generation of Germans. ...