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Grexit- Greece and the Argentina example of default and recovery revisited in June 2015 with an impasse in debt negotiations
06/25/2015
James Stewart in the NYT cites 2 papers, one by Prof. Arturo Porzecanski at American University and the other from Daniel Gros at the Center for European Policy Studies in Brussels, which show the serious problems of Greece following the Argentina example. Argentina defaulted on its debt in 2001 with the the ensuing years resulting in economic chaos. It recovered because of demand from Brazil and China for its exports of soyabeans, corn and soya oil. It also has large oil and shale reserves. Greece's main exports are cotton and fish, which are not in high demand, and cannot provide an economic boost. Tourism has gone up with price reductions, yet total revenues have not changed. The Greek banks are dependent on the ECB for financing, and the Greek business sector operates with borrowings in euros. Conversion to drachmas would be much more difficult than Argentina's shift to the peso and removing the peso's peg to the dollar. Stewart says he talked to Greece's finance minister Varoufakis about this, and Varoufakis is of the view that Argentina is not the right example for Greece. Greeks voted in Syriza to negotiate a better deal, and rejecting austerity- yet a majority of Greeks in 2015 favor staying in the eurozone and the European Union.
Grouped Articles
If Greece Defaults, Imagine Argentina, but Much Worse
New York Times 06.25.2015
Greece Calls Referendum on Bailout Terms
Wall Street Journal 06.27.2015
Greek Debt Crisis Intensifies as Extension Request Is Denied
New York Times 06.27.2015
Greece Defaults on IMF Loan Despite New Push for Bailout Aid
Wall Street Journal 07.01.2015
Greece, Missing I.M.F. Payment, Is Called Effectively in Default
New York Times 06.30.2015
Wall Street Journal 07.02.2015
Greece Wanted to Reframe Europe’s Austerity Debate. It Failed.
New York Times 07.01.2015
Mirage of Economic Turnaround Masked New Greek Crisis in the Making
Wall Street Journal 07.05.2015
New York Times 07.05.2015
Cutting Greece Loose Might Be a Win-Win
Wall Street Journal 07.08.2015
Germans Forget Postwar History Lesson on Debt Relief in Greece Crisis
New York Times 07.07.2015
Greece Given Until Sunday to Settle Debt Crisis or Face Disaster
New York Times 07.07.2015
It’s Time for Greece to Leave the Euro
New York Times 07.07.2015
New York Times 07.05.2015
Fear Grows in Greece as Decisive Hour Nears
Wall Street Journal 07.09.2015
Why Greece Should Leave the Eurozone
New York Times 07.24.2015
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