LyrArc Insights

Weekly MRA Goal Discussion Feb 19, 2024

In February 2024 focus on Movement for the Renewal of America goals is for Goal 5: Bringing Jobs and Factories Back to the US, and Goal 6: Capital Allocation for Infrastructure, along with Goal: Income and Wages+ Benefits Fairness. Gene Sperling who is a senior adviser to president Biden shows action taken to achieve these goals. By investing in the US economy, in US manufacturing and US jobs, the US under Biden now has the best economy of the 7 advanced economies with higher growth and unemployment below 4% for 24 straight months, lower inflation apples to apples. Now this did'nt just happen on its own, it was the result of the hard work done by people working with Biden and carefully avoiding the mistakes made by the previous administrations. Sperling says there were 4 lessons learned during his work with the White House. The first to avoid harm to workers whose lives get scarred by loss of jobs. This happened in 1982 and again in 2008 after the financial crisis. Unemployment took 6 years to recover after 2008. And he says the unemployment rate was 15% for younger workers. For the first time economists like Sperling and Treasury Secretary Yellen have grasped what workers feel and have gone through. Sperling cites the devastation to people's lives - the mental health, the divorce, the loss of earnings and depression. 

Second Sperling says 650,000 jobs were lost by state and local governments in the three years after 2008 financial crisis. State and local budget cuts and mass layoffs seriously hit the economy. This time in after 2020 1.2 million jobs were added with the money in the Rescue Plan and lost jobs recovered in one third the time it took in 2008. Third state and local governments need to deal with the harm coming from the downturn and after 2008 the cupboard was empty. Whereas after 2008 only 154 cities and counties got help to tackle commericial blight, effects on communities, foreclosure and long term joblessness in 2020 Biden was able to send direct funding to all 20,000 local governments and 15,000 school districts. This helped tackle learning loss, crime, and address mental health needs. What a difference it made.

To get a right grasp of the situation as a whole from the bigger picture than the headlines, is to know that even in the current chaotic immigration handling of both parties, the US comes out a winner in long term by 2034. That it gives for the younger generation a better future. Congress's Budget Office economic report shows GDP higher by 2% from the higher immigration of 5.2 million added to the US workforce by 2034. US productivity higher by 0.2% and residential investment including construction up by a whopping 10%. The younger profile of immigrants will help the US compete with India's younger population, and as China ages to have what it and Europe is aspiring to have- a younger population.

The Write any notes about article 72766 Economic Effects of Immigration from Venezuela etc by 2034 (page 51 CBO US Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034)

The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board opinion also agrees with this assessment of the Congressional Budget Office. What is the catch? It is that in the short term there is an impact on wages in hospitality and leisure, in construction. There are two forces mitigating this at this time - an acute shortage in these sectors and in nursing. Over the long term the effect on wages says the CBO is 0.02 percent on wages because a larger economy, the huge investments in the economy under president Biden, and shortages, absorb some of the impact. The larger picture shows the US able to compete with the youngest demographic nation India in the future and avoid the situation facing Japan for the last 2 decades of Japan and now China, and of the European Union nations of a aging workforce as immigration happens with younger people. 

On the immigration aspect. The best way to look at the immigration issue is for the short term- manage it better by organized method of immigration without chaotic border crossings by allowing potential immigrants to apply from their home country, a step taken by the Biden administration. What it or any Republican administration could not control is the immigration that happens from countries the US is at war with or in conflict with. It is important to recognize that this is what happened with Venezuela the largest component of the immigration border crossings in 2023. It was made worse by actions of both parties Democrats and Republicans and made worse in 2017 by more severe sanctions on Venezuela under the Trump administration.  Also part of the problem is Venezuelan mismanagement- providing oil at pennies a gallon, hurting imports and spiralling inflation that only worsened under US sanctions after 2017.

Long term- To reflect that US sanctions on top of mismanagement by Venezuela is a warning for all developing countries in Latin America, Africa, Asia and for the US. It meant 7 million refugees a staggering quarter of Venezuela's population fleeing the country, that burdened neighbors Columbia, Ecuador, Peru, Chile. By 2022-2023 many of these refugees were making their way up the Darien Gap to the US. Yet within this tragic situation for Venezuelan people how could the US best respond is to close the border as president Biden has proposed with McConnell and the Lankford effort in the Senate, which was blocked by the House under Mike Johnson. This gives time to assess the situation, correct US laws on asylum and parole that allowed this chaotic way to proceed under actions of both parties.And not let this destabilize the US by understanding that while Venezuela has suffered for its role in the crisis the US will ultimately have come out a winner, as pointed out by the Congressional Budget Office projections

Write any notes about article 72757 Immigration Wave Delivers Economic Windfall. But There’s a Catch.

5 Presidential Libraries That Offer Culture, History and ‘Labs of Democracy’ support iCivics and the ideas pushed forward for more education on America's unique democracy, the work of Abraham Lincoln in renewing it- for Goal No.7: Democracy Support Action. Nothing better than walking through these museums and seeing the lives and stories of other generations before us come alive and remind us of what we hand to future generations, and seeing some of the amazing landscapes that they are placed in to reflect on its meaning.

Write any notes about article 72748 Remarks by President Biden on Senate Passage of the Bipartisan Supplemental Agreement | The White House

Write any notes about article 72747 Truman Doctrine (1947)

Write any notes about article 72746 Opinion | The Senate Rejects American Retreat

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