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Sanctions relief could strengthen hand of Iran’s reformers, but perils remain - The Washington Post
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Because of pervasive corruption, low oil prices, and the effects of years of sanctions on the Iranian economy, experts now see the Iranian economy recovering only slowly in 2016-2017. The low oil prices below $30 a barrel in Jan. 2016 could cancel out the effects from unfreezing of about $50 billion in Iranian assets and removal of sanctions. Another severe problem is the way the Iranian economy is now structured with benefits going to businesses and groups close to the military and government, some of the benefits lost through corruption, taking it even longer for benefits to be seen for ordinary Iranians. This could even lead to Rouhani losing some of the credibility with the public that he had gained during the negotiations, says Warrick of the Washington Post.
Faces in Iran with the lifting of sanctions in Jan. 2016- will it help ordinary Iranians after years of living under sanctions?
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As Steven Mufson reports in the Washington Post, the lifting of sanctions is likely to lead to a slow increase in exports of oil, only 400,000 in the first 6 months, because it is in Iran's interest not to depress prices further than $30 a barrel. Foreign companies will also take a gradual approach to foreign investment in Iran because of remaining sanctions and the slowly improving economic outlook. This creates breathing room for all sides to assess the new situation after the landmark nuclear agreement amid tensions about ballistic missile tests.
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