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Setting a Course for India's Inflation Nirvana
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Year over year inflation in Dec. 2013 was 9.9% in India. RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan plans to focus on headline inflation which focusses on food and fuel which are about 60% of the consumer basket in India. Earlier RBI efforts used a number of indicators- inflation, growth, financial stability and exchange rates which created confusion in the minds of investors about the serious control of rising prices. Inflation for the last 5 years has been over 8%, and is persistent even as growth slows. The policy rate is now about 2 percentage points below inflation. Inflation targeting under Rajan could take the shape of 8% target in the first year, dropping to 6% and then a range between 2-6%.
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The former chief economist of the IMF teaches at the University of Chicago. The Indian prime minister and finance minister faced with slowing growth and a growing deficit have made him the chief economic advisor to the government. Rajan seeks to focus on three areas, allowing foreign investment and foreign banks to operate in the country, reducing waste in food storage and distribution, and improving the climate for new business so that growth does not depend largely on the large companies in the country.
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