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Demography and the economy: As boomers wrinkle
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The US is facing a new pattern of demographic changes and their impact on Medicare and Social Security programs. The number of people on Medicare will grow in 2 decades, 2010- 2030, from 47 million to 80 million for Medicare, and from 44 million to 73 million for Social Security, according to this estimate. The workforce will grow more slowly and the tax base wiill shrink accordingly during this period. This pending worker-pensioner imbalance and the jump in the cost of the bill for Medicare and Medicaid, as well as the federal health benefit for poor people, create a major problem for the US. At the same time the group of people over 65 will rise in these 2 decades from 17% of the voting age population to 26%. This group and the people who expect to soon join this group will resist any changes to Medicare or Social Security programs, making it that much harder for the political process to tackle these issues to make the programs sustainable in the long run.
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In 2 decades the number of people on Medicare is expected to grow from 47 million in 2010 to 80 million in 2030. At the same time the proportion of the voting age population that is over 65 will go up in that period to 26% in 2030 from 17% in 2010. Seniors who vote heavily Republican, and middle aged people who expect to join the senior group will resist any changes to Medicare and Social Security benefits.
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