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Francis- Pope of the humble and the poor.

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Risk is inherent in investing. It just needs to be understood well and grasped. There is a lesson in here that some risk is necessary, depending on one's risk horizon and it does not have to be Argentine bonds. Argentine 100 year bond and US Treasury 30 year bond returns 2017-2025 show quite a surprise.  50% return for 2017-25 on Argentine 100 year bonds vs -10% on US Treasury 30 year bonds. It shows the nature of emerging market risk says the WSJ- political risk. At one point the Argentine bonds showed a 50% loss, yet investors willing to stick through the downturn did better than expected, much better. The recovery did not start till Jan 2024 though, 7 years later. In this case the risk was the pandemic in addition to political risk of Argentine earlier defaults but the recovery took place years after the pandemic declined and with the election of Milieu as president.

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Indian trade with Latin America 2025 of $40 billion sees a catchup effort to China's $480 billion trade. Efforts by Brazil's Petrobras and Argentina's YPF to increase exports of oil and LNG to India and increase imports of pharmaceuticals, automobiles and textiles.

Sabrina Olivera from the Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI) says-

"The fact that India is the only democracy in Asia gives it an advantage in Latin America, where most countries in the region are democracies, trust in India is stronger than in China."

Brazil's president Lula and Indian PM Modi worked closely for G20 Summits in New Delhi and Rio de Janeiro. This cooperation and a need for Latin America to diversify from concentration of trade with China, increasing potential with India, can lead to a doubling or tripling of trade with India in a few years.

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Jose Igncacio is only an hour away from Punta del Este, Uruguay. A look at Uruguay destinations, Julia Buckley in The Times describes the attraction of Uruguay as a simpler less well known and less crowded place with big skies and good coastal hotels.  Montevideo, the capital of Uruguay, a small nation near Buenos Aires, Argentina, is compared to Lecce in Italy and Buenos Aires to Milan. New wineries provide new coastal hotel locations. And there is a small town quiet feel. Vineyards here are from fifth generation vintners from places like Piedmont, Italy.

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This essay in WSJ is from Marco Rubio, Senator from Florida, and now Secretary of State in the second term DJT administration. Here Rubio points to his first visit as a return to focus on the American continent, on Central America and South America, which was neglected since the Kennedy administration in 1961 when JFK launched the Alliance for Progress (Allianza para Progreso). Like JFK Rubio visited Central American countries the source in the last decade in addition to Venezuela of much of the illegal migration north to the US. After support for failed dictatorships under the Eisenhower administration, JFK made Latin America a priority. This can be seen in the JFK Nixon debates. 64 Years after the conference in Uruguay's Punta del Este in 1961, America is back to square one with the failed Central American countries from gangs plus crime and from Venezuela's economy collapsing from inflation plus mismanagement with a socialist experiment. Kennedy said-"To our sister republics south of our border, we offer a special pledge – to convert our good words into good deeds – in a new alliance for progress – to assist free men and free governments in casting off the chains of poverty." -- John F. Kennedy, Inaugural Address, January 20, 1961 Kennedy said of the Alliance for Progress "a vast cooperative effort, unparalleled in magnitude and nobility of purpose to satisfy the basic needs of the [Latin] American people for homes, work and land, health and schools – techo, trabajo y tierra, salud y escuela." Speaking in the White House on March 13, 1961, JFK said to more than two hundred Latin American diplomats,  "Let me be the first to admit that we North Americans have not always grasped the significance of this common mission." Yet at the same time, "many in your own countries have not fully understood the urgency of the need to lift people from poverty and ignorance and despair." ...

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It is the US that has stood steadfastly for freedom from colonization by European Powers in the Western Hemisphere and also in China and India. President James Monroe told Congress in 1823- "The nations of America are equally sovereign and independent with those of Europe. The people of the United States cannot, therefore, view with indifference attempts of European powers to interfere with the independent action of the nations on this continent." Nowhere is there even a hint of American effort to suppress freedom-  it was designed to prevent European powers recolonizing Mexico, Columbia, Argentina, Brazil. France invaded Mexico in 1828 on the pretext of collecting debts of 600,000 pesos (3 million francs) 15 years following the Annual Message to Congress of president James Monroe, in 1838 and again in 1867 on the same pretext. In 1867 the US after the Civil War placed an army in Texas to get the French to withdraw. The Monroe Doctrine is stated in the Annual Message to Congress of president James Madison in 1823. The US and Britain were concerned that the European colonial powers would attempt to recolonize Spain's former colonies that had become independent nations. Former presidents Madison and Jefferson agreed. John Quincy Adams sought to make this an American statement. The idea of preserving freedom in Latin America is enshrined in this document and the original document supported Greek Independence from Turkey, and was critical of France's invasion of Spain. A method employed by European powers to recolonize in the Western Hemisphere was to set an enormous sum of debt due as a pretext for invasion. Britain, Germany and Italy imposed a naval blockade of Venezuela in 1902-1903 on this pretext. The remaining colonies of Spain were in Cuba and the Philippines which were transferred to US after the Spanish American war. The US did not seek intervention for 3 years after the Spanish under Gen. Weyler pursued a policy of "reconcentration areas" for the Cuban population to suppress an independence movement causing great suffering in Cuba. On Feb 15 mines or torpedo sank the US ship the USS Maine in Havana Harbor with death of 266 sailors. Under president McKinley the US with Commodore Dewey took Manila Bay in the Philippines and Havana and Santiago in Cuba. The Treaty of Paris in 1898 giving US authority over Cuba and the Philippines, and Puerto Rico, was passed with only one vote in the Senate showing how much the issue was debated in the US. The foresight of Teddy Roosevelt and Cabot Lodge for a base in the Pacific at Manila Bay, and Hawaii, can be seen in how the US first resisted European colonization in China under president Wilson in 1913-1921, and fought Japanese colonization in China under Gen. Stilwell and Gen MacArthur in the FDR years 1932-44.     ...

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The introduction of the new currency the Real was the first step along with inflation targeting cutting spending and keeping strict control of money growth that brought runaway inflation down to 22% annually by 1995. The transparency, announcing the plan for the Real months ahead and calming expectations were reasons for the success of the Real. Life was entirely unpredictable when inflation had reached 2000% in 1993.

It was Henrique Cardoso of centre right party that introduced the Real currency and took the steps to finally control inflation. He was president for 2 terms 1994-1998 and was from Rio de Janeiro state. Most of the politics of Brazil before this was from politicians from three states Minas Gerais milk producing region, Rio Grande de Sul, and the state of Sao Paulo with coffee plantations in the south east of the country. 

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A year after taking office Argentine president Milei cuts spending by 30% bringing inflation down from 25% to 2.4% in November 2024. All sorts of programs are cut that had proliferated over the years. The resut is that the economy shrinks by 3.5% in 2024, only to grow rapidly by 5% in 2025 restoring a more stable pattern of growth and moderate inflation. Throughout it's history Argentina has faced high inflation and economic crises.A similar pattern in Brazil was broken in 1998 after two decades of inflation. It reached 56% in January 1990 dropping to about 2% in 1998.

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The economy, wages and cost of living, the failures in infrastructure and at Deutsche Bahn, migration or remigration are issues in Germany. During periods when there are Christmas market attacks in recent years  remigration has emerged as an issue. Migration is no longer the issue in Germany as it was during high levels of migration under Merkel following the wars in Syria and Iraq, unrest in North African countries such as Tunisia with Arab Spring.  The policies of CDU's Merkel tapping into potential migrant labor to meet shortages of manpower in the economy have been reversed by CDU and SPD+ Greens since 2020. Musk wades into this issue only to find Christian Democrats, Free Democrats cautioning him that he lacks understanding of what is happening. Remigration is now essentially accepted by the Social Democrats, and Christian Demcorats, advocated by Wagenknect Left and AfD right parties alike, leaving little room for AfD to grow except from unease.  CDU Merz polls at 30-36% but lacks answers to the Ukraine war. AfD is at about 20%. Wagenkenecht has taken positions opposing immmigration and migrants similar to Socialist parties in Denmark, which means most of the European Union across all parties have reversed position on migration similar to Labor in Britain under Keir Starmer. ...

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The increasing number of dengue fever cases in South America with 2.6 million cases in 2024 three times that in 2023.

Costa Rica, Caribbean, Mexico, Brazil and Argentina, Colombia top foreign destinations for US travelers have high rate of dengue fever caused by mosquitoes. Cases in South America spike during the summer which is from December to February.

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Juan Martin Del Potro of Argentina retires. A much loved player he was always gracious. He won the 2009 US Open final with a win over Federer and was runner up to Djokovic in the 2018 US Open final. After wrist injuries and surgeries he had to retire from tennis and is missed in the tennis circuit. In a period of Federer, Nadal and Djokovic dominating world tennis Del Potro had to make a lot of effort to compete and he did this with grace and style of play, adored by the fans.

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Watch Macron take the world on a tour of Notre Dame cathedral. "Sublime," "much more welcoming,"  "more light," are words used to describe the renovation that makes the cathedral more beautiful than before. It was become more touristic before the pandemic, dark spaces inside and cluttered outside in the years before the pandemic. The restoration could not have come at a better time from my personal visits to Notre Dame over 25 years, with the organ music lifting one's spirits in the earlier years. It was restored in 5 years, considered an "insane" challenge. The cost 700 million euros. Donations in euros raised from 150 countries raised 846 million euros. 250 companies and hundreds of experts were involved in the renovation. The organ is restored and will be heard in all its joyful music.  The stained windows have regained color and wall reflect light, dark spaces have more light, brightening up the space inside the cathedral. Pipes system with water is installed that will be used to reduce the damage form a fire. Admission will remain free at the insistence of the diocese of Paris. 14-15 million will now be welcome inside the cathedral form all parts of the world.    ...

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Brazilians writing about Brazil in the Brazil Report. Brazil Report says Brazil has carefully avoided Chinese debt where it involves taking on debt that has risks for repayment. Brazil has not joined the BRI Belt and Road Initiative and it staking out its own debt free path to development like India. Xinhua in a recent article calls the "debt trap" a rhetorical trap set by the US and EU, arguing with World Bank figures that debt of Ecuador, Brazil, and Argentina is 6.8%, 0.6% and 1.2% of GDP for these countries.  Here are the projects China has financed in Latin America using its technologies and manufacturing, $15 billion of greenfield investment in 2019, $12 billion in 2020-2022. Monterrey Metro and tram, Bogota Metro, Panama Canal fourth bridge Chancay megaport Peru Brazil- BYD EV plant, Santos port terminal, Curitiba 5G City, Cauchari solar plant Las Mambas copper mine, Lithium mines Argentina     ...