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Viktor Orban's defeat in the Hungarian election in April 2026 comes after decades of his blocking policies that emerged from the European Union in Brussels and is a relief for the European Union and Germany as it takes on the responsibility of leading continental Europe in its stance of opposition to Russia in the war in Ukraine with help of France and Britain. Peter Magyar who is staunchly pro European Union wins Hungary's 2026 election in a landslide with 137 seats to 57 with 77% of electorate voting as Viktor Orban concedes. Magyar's Tisza party gets 57% of the votes to 40% for Orban. Peter Magyar 45 years was part of the Orban Fidesz party before he formed his own party with dissatisfaction about the extent of corruption under Fidesz. Orban as head of the Fidesz was prime minister 1998-2002 then again in 2010 to 2026 for a period of 20 years spanning the first quarter of the 21st century. Magyar is not a progressive or so called liberal and shares many of the same views on social issues of Orban but he is pro-European Union and reflects the views of the Hungarian nation as independent in Eastern Europe and the Hungarian Revolution of 1956 in an uprising against Soviet rule. In the period before the two world wars from 1600 Hungary was the place where in addition to Austria and Vienna, the Hapsburgs and other European armies pushed back the Ottoman Empire's expansion into Europe. Hungary was a key part of the Hapsburg Empire which ruled from Vienna, Austria, over most of Eastern Europe for 1600-1918. The Hapsburg Empire collapsed in World War I on the side of the Germans and a new nation Hungary emerged by 1921 but was much smaller than Hungary of the Hapsburg era. Today Hungary is a nation of 10 million with its capital on the Budapest on the Danube river in the heart of Central Europe. ...

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In getting the support of an overwhelming majority of Senators to support Ukraine aid Mitch McConnell plays a key role. His remarks on the floor of the US Senate underscored the gravity of this moment in the Congress: "Make no mistake: Delay in providing Ukraine the weapons to defend itself has strained the prospects of defeating Russian aggression. Dithering and hesitation have compounded the challenges we face. Today’s action is overdue, but our work does not end here. Trust in American resolve is not rebuilt overnight. Expanding and restocking the arsenal of democracy doesn’t just happen by magic.” President Biden's effort will be remembered. It is similar to what happened when Harry Truman had to persuade a war weary country and the US Congress in 1948 to pass bill for aid to Greece and Turkey to prevent an imminent Communist takeover with support from the Soviet bloc. McConnell will be remembered for his action, so will Speaker Mike Johnson and Senator Schumer and other Republicans, Democrats that worked hard to get a decisive vote for Ukraine aid of 79 For to 18 Against, with 15 Republicans and 3 Democrats voting against. Alabama Senator shifted to a yes vote saying most of that $61 billion of aid to Ukraine will be spent in the US to hire American workers in defense industries. A $10 billion loan provision with forgiveness included was a way to get the former president to support it. On the third try America's Congress gets it through in a decisive manner with overwhelming support. This is not unlike the efforts before, when Aid to Greece and Turkey had to be passed through Congress under president Harry Truman in 1948 with both countries facing a danger of Communist takeover supported by the Soviet bloc with only US support keeping democracy in both Greece and Turkey. Even in 1948 to a war weary country Harry Truman had to persist and get the support he did from the US Congress as president Biden did today April 23, 2024. ...

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US and Iran accept Pakistan's mediation of the war with a 2 week ceasefire and opening of Straits of Hormuz- April 7 2026. The mediation by prime minister Sharif of Pakistan gave both sides in the war a way to back down. Both sides agreed to talks in Islamabad, Pakistan. As a partner of Pakistan, China may also have a role in setting up a settlement as China and Japan have the most to lose from the Straits of Hormuz being closed, oil prices rocketing up to $115 and higher, and even a prolonged shutdown of Hormuz Straits. Both China and Japan get 90% of their imports from Hormuz Straits. Oil prices drop to the $100 level from $115 after the announcement of talks in Islamabad. This is not a long term settlement. After the two weeks US president meets president Xi of China in Beijing shortly afterwards on May 14-15. It is likely that preparations for that trip will involve China and Pakistan working together to get the US and Iran to agree to an extension of the ceasefire. One outcome of this war is as Le Monde has noted- the unreliability of Hormuz supplies and shift to imports from US and Venezuela and other parts of the world for fossil fuels. And with this a renewed effort to reduce the fossil fuels needed by accelerating renewable energy supplies in Europe, India and China. More attention will also be focused on reducing the proliferation of nuclear weapons by all major powers. Removing US involvement in NATO may also turn out to be positive in some ways to bring Russia and US as nuclear powers to better working relationships, and reduce the nuclear arms race and weapons race. For Europe it means meeting needs of Ukraine and improving military capabilities. The overall result may be positive for all countries. The Middle East region will be seen as one in which no powers should get involved in and the Middle East will also find it has squandered its valuable oil dividend in five decades of wars and mismanagement and fall behind the rest of Asia and Europe, the US in economic progress and development. ...

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New German chancellor Merz's personal popularity is hitting new lows in April 2025 even before a new government takes charge in Germany. Merz speaks understandably 60%, trustworthy 21%, strong leader 40%, results of Stern magazine survey April 2025. In a fragmented scene for political parties Merz takes office as the Ukraine war continues, and new tariff challenges are raised by the US for German exports.

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On April 21, 2022, US president Biden talks to Americans in a live television address and says US will send an additional $800 million in military assistance to Ukraine. And an additional $500 million in economic assistance that takes the total economic assistance to $1 billion. He asks Congress to approve additional requests so that an uninterrupted flow of aid to Ukraine can be maintained to deter Russian aggression. He also opens up a path for direct entry into the US for some of the 5 million Ukrainian refugees. He calls attention to the 5 million refugees and to the millions of displaced children. He says about two thirds of the children in Ukraine are displaced by the war which he found to be shocking.

Biden said "you've got to admit- be amazed at the courage of the country, and of the young men and the young women." 

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A study by Blanchard and Bernanke shows energy prices and supply chain constraints were key factors in creating the surge in inflation that happened in 2022. The Ukraine war played apart in raising energy prices . How much effect did president Biden's $1.6 trillion American Rescue Plan have on inflation? Bernanke and Blanchard say not what critics had suggested. Once energy prices were brought under control through the president's policies to $75 energy prices played less of a role in inflation. Supply chain effects also eased throughout 2022. The persistent effect remained the mismatch between supply and demand that is called The Great Resignation that came as a response from teachers, nurses, hospitality sector workers with low minimum wage on which it was hard to make a living. President Biden's payments to these workers gave them enough room to make a definite choice that they would not take the risks during the pandemic and the stress and opted for shifting to other jobs. Employers struggled to fill vacancies and raised wages in response. To reduce inflation the Fed opted to raise rates to slow the demand for goods and services in the economy which has led to a moderating of inflation from the high of 7% in 2022 to falling below 5% by April 2023. Fed chairman Powell's aggressive attitude to inflation was based on not letting an inflationary psychology set in, that could damage the interests of workers and families who had already suffered from the pandemic's effects. This is where we are today as the economy adjusts to the fight against climate change, investments in renewable energy and infrastructure, and efforts to reduce the deficit by president Biden in a way that reduces the widening gaps and social divisions in society.   ...

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Mr. Zelensky of Ukraine makes his first official visit to Warsaw, Poland in April 2023. He was welcomed in Poland with an outpouring of support. About 10 million Ukrainians have crossed into Poland since the war began in February 2022. Of this 1.5 million Ukrainians have settled in Ukraine, the rest have gone to neighboring countries or returned to Ukraine. Poland has also opened its market to Ukrainian grain causing unrest among farmers because of lower prices. Poland has a population of 38 million, Ukraine a population of 43 million. These two nations are now the countries that are in the frontlines of the war after Russia's invasion. Other countries that have seen Soviet invasion such as Finland in 1939, Czech Republic in 1968, are now part of the NATO alliance force that faces Russia across a long common border. The Finnish border with Russia stretches for 830 miles through vast forested regions. The US is building a vast warehouse complex in Warsaw that will store US and NATO tanks. As the war continues a year later the resolve of the US and of Ukraine and Poland remain undiminished to the Russian invasion. This is unlike the events of post 1945 when Europe as a whole had seen the effects of 5 years of war and America faced the Soviet expansion into war ravaged Eastern Germany, Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Greece. In 2023 the economies of the US and European Union have survived the economic effects of the war and the US is embarking on a huge plan to rebuild its infrastructure and its manufacturing capacity. The US and European Union through NATO remain united to reject any nation changing borders with impunity by force- the issue they see in Ukraine and in Taiwan. On the issue of Taiwan the US, EU are joined by Japan, Australia, Philippines, Vietnam and India. The issue of impunity and allowing borders to be changed by force will remain a strong one for the US and EU, on which there may be little room for concessions because of the principle. In his History of Europe- The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the Present, Cambridge historian Brendan Simms has shown that no nation by itself or with its allies has been able to use its dominant position to exercize power with impunity without meeting formidable combined opposition of other countries  in Europe. Over 500 years of history France, Russia, Austria-Hungary, have in turn had to agree to give up claims after meeting a formidable opposition of other countries in Europe. This Russian invasion does not appear to be any different.  ...

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This self portrait by Vladimir Putin about his growing up years in Leningrad and the life of his father and mother during the siege of Leningrad by Germans may offer a better sense of the mind and thinking of the Russian president than the Dresden years when he was a junior Russian official in Communist East Germany (the GDR). It is an interview of the Russian president in 2000 by Nataliya Gevorkyan, Natalya Timakova, and Andrei Kolesnikov over twenty years back. Putin's father suffered severe injuries during the war in the fighting around Leningrad, twice being given up for dead and being dragged wounded across the frozen Neva river to a hospital by a neighbor. His mother was half dead from starvation and his father passed on his food given to him at the hospital. Having gone through the memories of this period affected Vladimir Putin's view of the world and no amount of US or German assurance about NATO's intentions may have erased these memories from childhood. The long period in power and the Covid isolation may have led to  perceptions that were less likely to change so that Putin did his own research and wrote a long paper on Ukraine in 2021 that reflected Russia and Ukraine's long history but did not reflect the changing national aspirations of Ukraine's people in 2022. This may have led to the miscalculation and the errors by both Putin and the leaders Merkel-Bush-Obama that the detailed WSJ report of 20 years of events show to have happened. The WSJ report of April 1, 2022, was titled "Vladimir Putin's 20 Year March to War in Ukraine and How the West Mishandled It." The Social Democrats in Germany under Schroeder and Steinmeier mishandled it by deepening economic integration with Russia as a way to make up for what had happened in the German invasion of Russia, and the Christian Democrats under Merkel with business interests never really grasped the different thinking of the Russian president relying solely on deep economic integration of the EU and Germany with Russia as well as China as an answer. Mr. Bush and Mr. Obama from a distance even less so.  This has led to the miscalculation by Russia under Putin leading to invasion of Ukraine, and the US and Germany being unprepared about taking action to prevent it.  Beyond the key participants and the war damage, there is the enormous damage that is taking place in the mental health around the world after Covid with constant barrage of images of war and refugees streaming into Poland. There is the problem of food imports, of food scarcity in the Middle East, and inflation in food prices for Africa and the Middle East. As Brendan Simms, a Cambridge historian has shown in his book "Europe The Struggle of Supremacy 1453 to the Present," which is now being read by German chancellor Scholz, this has happened before with the UK, Netherlands, Spain, Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Russia engaging in these conflicts that led to prolonged wars and eventually to only small shifts in power. Yet with huge effects for ordinary people caught in the wars such as today's refugees and people struggling to feed their families in Africa and Asia after the effects of Covid on income. Food prices have gone up by 50% to almost double in these countries.   ...

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It comes as a shock to central banks and is pressuring governments- the food price explosion that won't go away even as energy prices are moderating. OECD graphs in this WSJ report show food prices up in 2023 over the prior year by 15-20% in France, Germany and Britain, compared to 5-10% in the US, Canada and Japan. In France households have cut food purchases by 10%, and in Germany by 10.4% over prior year in the largest drop since records were being kept in 1994. In Britain the statistics agency shows that 40% of the poorest 20% of people are cutting back on food purchases. Ludovic Subran who worked at the UN World Food Program says it is an "access problem." Food production has not dropped, people just can't afford to pay the prices. In Britain The Resolution Foundation says higher food prices since 2020 means the British public by summer 2023 will have to pay more in food bills $35 billion more than the 25 billion pounds for energy bills. Policymakers call higher profit margins by retailers as a possible cause as in world commodity markets food prices are falling since April 2022. Andrew Baileyof the Bank of England says it is the "fourth shock to inflation" after the supply chain bottlenecks, the energy price increases from the war in Ukraine, the tight labor markets. In Italy, Spain and Portugal governments have offered sale tax relief, in France and the UK government is leaning on retailers to curb price increases. ...

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A Berlin based think tank, German Institute for Economic Research, says Germany could end its dependence on energy imports by winter of 2022. That is much sooner than mid-2024 as Economy Minister Habeck has stated.The issue has serious urgency as the war continues in April in Ukraine entering a new and more dangerous phase in the east. And every day oil and gas imports by European Union gives Russia $16 million for coal, $434 million for natural gas, and $489 million for oil, a total of close to $1 billion every day.  With new missile attacks on civilian buildings this is one way for European Union to shoulder some of the burden that it has not done so far. DIW think tank says this could be done with decreased industry and household consumption that could generate about 18-26% savings of the demand for Russian natural gas, suggesting that households turn down thermostats and use less warm water, and industry turn to alternative fuels such as coal and biomass. Another saving is from increased supplies from Norway and the Netherlands of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Increased supplies from Norway alone says DIW could cover 20% of current annual imports of gas from Russia. Instead of waiting to build new infrastructure, the new LNG terminals on the coast which face long construction times and eventually falling demand for natural gas which make them financially untenable, the best approach is to use existing infrastructure in LNG terminals in the Netherlands, Belgium and France to increase volume in EU pipelines. Such action would cover 25% of demand for Russian natural gas. Other action is get more efficient use of the European pipeline system to increase German gas imports from Algeria, Libya and other North African nations vis southern EU nations. ...

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The Ukraine, Israel and Indo-Pacific aid bills are passed in the House of Representatives with 316-94 vote on April 19, 2024. Vote rule set with support of Democrats made a simple majority vote sufficient to  pass. It was a significant win for both parties as 165 Democrats and 151 Republicans voted for the bills. 55 Republicans and 39 Democrats voted against. It was as Speaker Johnson had said earlier for each Congressman to vote his conscience. Speaker Johnson said it was the best possible bill "we could get under the circumstances." He said if this wasn't done then Democrats would have bypassed Republican leaders and forced their own package of bills through the House. As a nod to the former president $60 billion in aid to Ukraine has $9.5 billion in forgivable economic loans. Overall similar to what Democrats had passed in the Senate over a month earlier. “I hope at the end we can take care of our responsibilities. Ukrainians desperately need lethal aid right now. I mean we can’t allow Vladimir Putin to roll through another country.” - Mike Johnson, Speaker ...

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Inflation in the US went down slightly from annual rate of 8.5% in March to 8.3% in April 2022. Inflation was highest for gasoline, energy, automobiles and food. Supply chain bottlenecks have accelerated inflation in 2021-2022. The war in Ukraine has pushed up energy and food prices. Inflation is likely to ease in coming months. Wage gains are being eroded by higher inflation in 2021-2022.

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Life in Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city, is shown alongside as the city struggles with most of its infrastructure destroyed in the war. The $61.5 billion aid to Ukraine was passed in the US Congress only with the efforts of Mitch McConnell who never gave up even in February and March when bills passed in the Senate were stalled in the House as the former president and some of the Republican base wavered. Mitch McConnell says now after the vote of 79 to 18 that passed  in the Senate that "at times I felt I was the only Reagan Republican left." At a meeting with the president in late February he wanted to start the meeting because he says-" I wasn't trying to convince Johnson of anything other than we had a time problem. I did't think we had time to fool around." Speaker Mike Johnson had wavered in calling for a House vote of a Senate bill on Ukraine aid after the former president had declined support. "He had a spine of steel and wouldn't give in to pressure from those in our caucus who did not have the depth of understanding of the stakes and who had reached different conclusions" says  Susan Collins who visited Ukraine in 2022 with McConnell. She calls him "steadfast and unwavering." Pat Schumer says "I give him a huge amount of credit. we were shoulder to shoulder on this." As he stays in the Senate till his term ends in January 2027, Mitch McConnell can look back on two decades of leadership in Senate realizing he had added nine Republican votes to get it 31 Republicans for Ukraine aid at a critical time. He says of two rules he has followed for 18 years - you take a lot of arrows, and yet you never speak about your members on or off the record, and in that sense he is free to pursue his own interests and has a lot of latitude now till 2027. He will be sorely needed in the Senate as the voice of experience and depth of understanding.   ...

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Pocketbook issues are taking increasing importance in the French election on April 24. Greg Ip of the WSJ says inflation has risen in importance more than immigration, the war in Ukraine, and other issues related to Islamist separatism. About 45% cited purchasing power as the main issue in a BVA poll, and this is even higher for people who voted for Jean-Luc Melenchon who came within 1% percentage point of Ms. Le Pen in the first round. Greg Ip says that in economic issues France has done better than Germany, Italy or the UK. Unemployment is at 7.4% the lowest since 2008. Economic output has risen more than in Germany, Italy or the the UK since Mr. Macron took office. And one study shows disposable income has risen higher under Macron than under predecessors Hollande and Sarkozy. France also spent heavily to tackle the Covid pandemic's effect on workers and companies. Ip says Macron's efforts to liberalize labor markets, simplify taxes and wage bargaining and make training programs more effective could be the reason. Youth unemployment is the lowest in nearly 40 years, and the number of apprenticeships doubled from 2019 to 2021, according to BNP Paribas. Pisani-Ferry, economist at Sciences Po says compared to past performance the French economy did much better. Le Pen has promised to cut the value added tax to tackle inflation's effect on voters. Macron has said he will be flexible when it comes to raising the age for retirement and pensions and calls Le Pen's lowering the retirement age creating problems for the solvency of the pension system and highly unrealistic.   ...

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Germany is building the new pipeline that connects the Wilhelmshaven LNG Terminal to its natural gas storage tank in record time in the midst of an energy crisis in Europe. The new 26 kilometer pipeline for  the LNG Terminal is being built in a few months when it would have otherwise taken 8 years. See Rani Bhandari, Managing Director of Open Grid Europe talk about the project in this video from DW.com to get a sense of how Germany is moving quickly to address natural gas needs for the winter. Click on Original article to see it.

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Most of the reporting on Ukraine follows the war. Questions are asked how will this conflict end? This report in Der Spiegel is one of the rare reports that looks at the Ukrainian economy with images and reporting from the ground that answer that question. If the Ukrainian economy is surviving in 2023 then Ukraine will continue long after a peace settlement is reached. It shows for instance that supermarket shelves are well stocked. It shows energy from half a million generators keeps the lights on and companies working in Ukraine. The steel industry is mostly destroyed yet the software industry continues to grow. Unemployment is 30% even after hundreds of thousands of younger Ukrainians are at the war front. Of about $62 billion promised by US and European countries about $31 billion has actually been transferred to Ukraine. The IMF has created an exception for aid to Ukraine with offices in Kviv and Brussels. All defense needs are covered from the Ukraine budget. Before the invasion in Feb 2021 defense took up 9% of the budget, now it takes up 42% of the budget. Another 16% for public security. For social benefits 16%, and another 26% for other expenditures. By having an economy that is functioning and life even in light from generators and solar energy, with supermarkets well stocked and providing office space for workers, with aid mechanisms working. Ukraine has already emerged as part of Europe, tried, tested and come through adversity of the worst sort. It is supposed to join the European Union, yet Der Spiegel says it is already tightly integrated into the EU. Its power grid was integrated with the EU power grid before the war, and nuclear power was sent to the EU from Ukraine before Russian attacks on the nuclear plant. Then transmission lines brought energy to Ukraine from the EU. The EU takes in 80% of Ukraine agricultural exports compared to 20% before the war. Even at the risk of lower prices and hurting farmers in Poland, the Polish government has allowed large imports of agricultural products into Poland. The close links with countries of the EU that share a border with Russia have increased. The problems now are that Ukraine after this war will have severe shortage of manpower. Already with the fall of the Soviet Union Ukraine lost about 8 million people and population was 44 million before the war. About 8 million people moved to Ukraine in the one year following Russian invasion. Of this 1.5 million stayed in Poland, the rest went on to other countries in the EU or returned. The countries such as Germany, Finland, Czech Republic have labor shortages of their own and encourage refugees to stay. Rebuilding is estimated to cost $131 billion. Yet as is evident in Poland after most of the damage from the second world war in Poland it was rebuilt using modern technology. Ukraine survives, its life goes on, is the message from Der Spiegel. In this way the war's outcome is already evident. Much of it comes from the European Union having sensed that attacks made with impunity would endanger all of the European countries when made by any dominant power. This is also what Cambridge historian Brendan Simms has shown about European history for the past 500 years in History of Europe- The struggle for Supremacy 1452 to the present. No one country says Simms was able to act with impunity and pose athreat to its neighbors as all other countries in Europe rallied to prevent this. This war is no exception.   ...

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The European Union has adapted well to a cutoff of supplies of Russian gas. Alternative sources were quickly pulled together in a matter of months after the invasion and cutoff to tackle the winter of 2022-2023. Conservation was moved into high gear, renewable energy investment expanded, and alternative sources for gas established. Germany sought supplies of LNG from the US and Qatar and built gas terminal at Wilhelmshaven in record time of less than 6 months. Norway increased gas supplies to Europe and now provides one third of Europe's gas needs. German industry changed the way they used gas supplies to reduce usage and make it efficient.

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A steady decline in the price of Brent crude from $115 to $92 in the period from June to October 2014. Slow or no economic growth in Europe, and declining growth in China was the main reason. A cut in oil price by Saudi Arabia in September with lack of coordination in OPEC to control supplies when prices are declining, and increasing supplies from the U.S., provided additional basis for price declines. This price decline comes as large energy companies invested heavily in mega-projects to bring more oil supplies when prices were up to $128 by mid-2012. Consulting company EY estimate is that there are 163 such mega projects worth $1.1 trillion underway, most behind schedule and over budget. The projects were based on oil prices being over $100. Oil field development costs are increasing rapidly. Douglas Westwood, a consulting firm, estimate is that productivity of upstream capital spending has fallen by a factor of 5 since 2000, declining by 5% a year, as oilfield equipment and services demand exceeds supply. Greater technological sophistication also adds to cost such as Shell's Nobel Bully platform for deep sea drilling. See link- Noble Bully. Oil majors are now cutting spending, and some planned big projects are on hold. About $300 billion in assets may be up for sale. Shell plans to cut spending by 20% in 2014, Exxon and Chevron 5-6%. Shale oil projects in America need about $57 to be profitable with an internal rate of return of 10%, by one estimate. Yet this is an average and does not reflect differing producer costs. This estimate does not reflect the high cost producers, some of whom need closer to $110....

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Brent crude drops below $60 by Dec. 15, 2014.

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Major decline in oil prices in Oct. 2014 as prices drop to $81 per barrel and are forecast to reach $70. U.S. oil production increased by about 56% or 3.1 million barrels a day since 2004. U.S. demand for gas and fuel declined 8% compared to 2004. Initially instability and wars in the Middle East sustained high oil prices in 2012-2013. Yet with growing output from shale and other sources in N. America and slowing economies of Europe and China, the situation reached a point in 2014 where supply exceeds demand. This shift more than offsets any instability in trouble spots. The situation affects the U.S. consumer favorably with an estimate of $1 billion in savings for American consumers with every one cent drop in price at the gas pump, by one estimate from Deutsche Bank analysts. Typical American families gained an extra $50 a month from the decline June to October 2014, according to analysts at Gasbuddy.com. The declines are a boost for the slowing economies of Europe, Japan, China, S, Korea and India. China's imports for 2015 are estimated at 61% of oil consumption, using official estimates. In the current slowdown the lower prices offer relief. India which imports 75% of its energy benefits signficantly, as this helps lower inflation and reduces cost of fuel subsidies for state run companies. Russia is adversely affected by the declines as it depends on oil and gas exports for 50% of the nation's budget. Estimates by AFK Sistema economists show the Russian economy contracting in 2015 with oil at near $90 per barrel (Brent crude is at about $85, and WTI at $81 in early Oct. 2014). Russia's former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin reflects opinion among Russian executives and politicians, when he told state television that Saudi Arabia may be pushing prices lower to target Russia's oil resource based economy and Mr. Putin, in an effort to broaden the effect of sanctions. (The Saudis have strongly protested the Putin intervention in Syria.) Venezuela has used $120 per barrel and Angola $98 for its budget, leading to a strong hit for the economy. ...