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NYTimes.com Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Where do you place a winner of the Democratic primary in Maine, Graham Plattner, an oyster farmer who dropped out of college at George Washington University, served briefly in the Middle East wars of Bush and Obama, and had PTSD. Is he working class, middle working class or is he from a downwardly mobile professional class considering he has parents who are well educated and father a prominent lawyer in Maine? Plattner easily defeated a 3 term governor of Maine with his average working class demeanor and language. He is for universal health care, (Medicare for All) universal child care, affordable housing, affordable college. Politics in the US has been moving away from the simple divisions before 1950 created by the Industrial Revolution- the workers in factories and the owners of capital allied with the professional middle class. The few owners of capital mostly college educated allied with people from the non college educated workers in factories who are conservative in their values and beliefs and on the other side the college educated professional middle class now downwardly mobile because of the many recessions and high unemployment from frequent financial crises, with college costing $80,000 a year putting them in deep debt. There is today in the WSJ a story of a professional worker who at $194,000 a year salary is not able to payoff $15000 debt which owners of capital have set at 26% interest and is in downward spiral. Some of this comes from large college and other debt. There is says WSJ Analysis $1.25 trillion in credit card debt alone with highest delinquency rates in decades in 2026. Cost of living has only made things worse and some of this happened as Biden poured money into the economy to help people hurt by the pandemic, yet with some short run consequences with demand strong businesses including hotels, restaurants and grocery stores, auto dealers, jacking up their prices by over 20% in 1 year and Biden failing to respond, getting overwhelmed by open borders migrants under Mayorkas and Harris (also hit by a sudden Venezuelan migrant influx). This is the America one has today- a confusing mix. This in reality means Democrats may take issue with Democrats, Republicans take issue with Republicans, and Democrats join with Republicans on issue by issue basis. It might actually be rational than irrational. On cultural issues if the country has gone over its head and moved too fast on some issues that are not for the general public good, people of different backgrounds can come together to get the best path. On economic issues things are never so straightforward, there are unpredictable consequences and the rules of economics are really not so straightforward either.  Providing relief can mean the government shouldering the burden as during the pandemic which it should, yet with caution as businesses can use the excess demand to raise prices and one is back to square one with everybody worse off as happened with Biden. Migrant flows and fears of insecurity in public spaces can lead to a severe public "discomfort that can waylay the best intentions of a Harris or Biden, leading to public "backlash." In fact the title of a recent book is "Whiplash." Current books include Floridan Marco Rubio's "Decade's of Decadence- How our Spoiled Elites Blew America's Inheritance of Liberty, Security and Prosperity." Rubio means it. Its authentic because as Rubio says repeatedly, his parents could make a living in the 1960's working in a factory with decent wages, low cost of living and low cost of college, the arithmetic between salaries and what you needed for decent home in suburbs and sending children to good public schools, then to college, all adding up. The result is that Rubio could go to college and serve in the Florida legislature. Rubio says in 2026, after the elites under Bush and Obama and faulty economic theory shipped all of our factories to China, that the story of his parents and his education would simply be impossible. This is what he told people in India on his first visit last week. His parents were Cuban immigrants, yet he identifies with Spain and with western civilization, a devout Roman Catholic. Rubio is a Republican, and is in large contrast with Alejandro Mayorkas, also from Cuba, and Biden's Head of Homeland Security. This is the mix of people and representatives in Congress,  business people, small business owners, professionals, that we have today in 2026 in the US. Plattner and Rubio, one a Democrat and one a Republican- both have something in common. Plattner also has general disdain for "the corporate interests, the billionaires, the Washington DC elites, and the establishment politicians."  The winds are blowing in the direction of getting things right- remembering that Eisenhower continued the work of the Kennedy and LBJ administrations (Eisenhower built the Interstate Highway System for instance, and LBJ gave America Social Security and Medicare). Before that Franklin Roosevelt a Democrat built on the work of his uncle Republican Theodore Roosevelt (TR gave America the idea of good governance and built the US Navy, FDR fought the Depression and stabilized a faltering economy after mistakes made by Republican Herbert Hoover could have happened even if Hoover was a Democrat. FDR was himself from a wealthy New York family and when he first met fellow New Yorker Frances Perkins before his struggle with polio, a haughty New York gentleman. That was before Frances Perkins as FDR's Labor Secretary joined forces with Roosevelt to give New York a modernized administration governance structure by 1940 that was applied to all 51 states after 1950. It allied labor with capital with fairness for all, and was the first such modern structure of this size the world had ever seen, which was the fundamental strength of the United States of America. It was imitated in Asia, first in the Shanghai region then China, and first in the Ahmedabad region and now India. The US is faced with the challenge of recreating and rebuilding this today, as first China, then India remind America of its roots which they have followed in their own style and culture.  First good governance, then good institutional structures, alligning labor and capital with fairness for all, strong affordable + accessible educational and healthcare systems, and investments of capital and labor for infrastructure + industrial development. ...
NYTimes.com Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Debt markets and Analysts fear too much building of data centers will lead to construction taking more time for the AI data centers to come online, and by that time they fear aglut of data center capacity leading to losses. One AI data center company is asked to pay 3.75% more in interest rates, 70% more for loans. Other reports suggest caution because of the circular nature of data center investments where the same companies are coming up again and again in complex transactions and lack of transparency. Oracle took losses on it's stock price for its financial dealings.

NYTimes.com Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
African continent debt reached $1.1 trillion in 2024. About 900 million people live in African countries where interest payments on debt exceed money spent on healthcare and education. In Nigeria external debt is $40 billion, in Kenya $35 billion and Uganda $12 billion.  Take Nigeria with 220 million people. 40% of the revenue collected goes to meet interest payments on debt. For many African countries there is zero per capita income growth for a decade. During the 2010 crisis as interest rates reached new lows US and European Reagan era intellectuals including Democrats encouraged African countries to borrow at low rates and banks loosened restrictions putting more African countries into debt buildup borrowings. As interest rates went up the cost of paying the debt accumulated required more loans at higher interest rates. Nigeria paid a premium over that of 10% for a loan of $2 billion just for interest payments. The debt crisis means African currencies depreciate reducing purchasing power.  With war in Ukraine and Covid prices of food and energy rose. Only the strong and disciplined leadership and rapid industrialization provided breathing room as with Modi in India, Jinping in China, the African continent and Latin America lacked this and are feeling the pain. ...
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
The implications of the U.S. Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy. Total U.S. debt in 2012 is expected to be $11.58 trillion, with 52% of this in maturities of less than 3 years. The average interest on this is about 2.24% in January 2012, with interest on the debt at about 225 billion in Jan. 2012. If interest rates were to go up in 2014-2017 as forecast by the CBO, an interest rate of 5-6% would result in doubling or tripling the amount of interest on U.S. debt. The U.S. Treasury is financing the huge increase in debt- $5 trillion added in the last four years- through low interest rates and shorter maturities. This stores up large financial risks for the future including calls for tax increases to pay for a sudden rise in the interest on U.S. debt.
WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
As the US central bank, the Fed, considers cutting high interest rates that affect housing costs and mortgages this WSJ report looks at the consumer debt in September 2024. It says consumer debt is at $17 trillion in 2024. This is high except that when inflation adjusted it is only 3% above the consumer debt in 2019, the peak happened in 2008 before the banking induced financial crisis. Then there is the question of what the debt composition is. Here overall debt has grown by 4% yet credit card debt is up 11%, not a good sign when the interest rates charged by banks is 12%, by cards 22%. Households are paying off credit card debt by borrowing from sources with lower interest costs.

This is more evidence why many households are hurting as debt servicing remains as and additional cost of living issue for Americans.

WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
The Fed's interest rate policies to fight inflation have increased the return on US assets vs overseas emerging market countries such as Brazil and India. US Treasurys now offer 2% return after inflation. This means investors shy away from emerging markets as the extra yield offered by emerging market country bonds is diminishing. This reduces inflow of investment into countries from Turkey to Brazil. Higher rates also increase the value of the dollar vs other currencies including that of China and India, Brazil, Mexico. This means it is costlier for other countries to buy goods priced in dollars (India, Mexico)  or service dollar denominated debts (Argentina or Turkey). Where countries had raised rates to fight inflation this means central banks have less room to cut rates to stimulate their economies. This also happens as China's growth of 5% in 2023 as it has high debt and little room for stimulus measures, reduces any growth in countries in Latin America or Africa that export commodities from copper and iron to other materials. ...
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
The St. Louis Fed President, James Bullard, argues in a paper, that the keeping of target interest rates near zero as promised by Ben Bernanke at the Federal Reserve, sets up a situation similiar to Japan of a "deflation trap." He said that core annual inflation of only 0.9% in May 2010 suggests that there is a risk that the nominal inerest rate and inflation end up being at an unintended steady state which is dangerously low. He also said that the market's interpretation of the Fed's extended period of low interests language had a perverse effect of stretching out the period before things normalize. He suggests as an appropriate step "quantitative easing"- a policy of buying monetary debt with longer dates. But for this to be effective, the action has to be credible.
WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
China has a mountain of local debt that is seriously affecting the Chinese economy, time for can kicking is over. WSJ looks at this in 6 charts. Lanzhou and Guilin are 2 provinces where the fiscal capacity is already exceeded by interest on debt. Huzhou, Kunming and Chengdu are three provinces where interest on local debt takes up about 60% of fiscal capacity. The problems are complicated by dropping land sales, and LGFV bonds issuance at higher interest rates when the return of power projects is as low as 1.5%, and low on other projects. Yet there is hope because these provinces are inland provinces in north and west except for mega city of Tianjin. Land sales have dropped and replaced by LGFV or local government financing vehicles bond issuance at higher interest rates than bank loans. Conversion of LGFV to lower interest is being done, with provincial bank debt creating other problems.

WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
The Turkish lira drops sharply on November 23, by 18%. This is likely to worsen inflation that is already at 20% in 2021. This also makes it harder for businesses to pay off foreign currency debt. President Erdogan is following an unconventional policy of cutting interest rates when the currency value is declining. The Turkish central bank is cutting its key policy interest rate. Growth and investment are expected to be affected as foreign investors move away from Turkey. 

WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
The US Federal's half percentage point interest rate cut bodes well for stocks and bonds in the US, says this report in WSJ, as it reduces the burden of interest rates on small business that has a part of its debt in floating rates. The default risk component of rates also shrinks for large and small companies. A lot depends on how much the US is investing in manufacturing, in chips and science, in education, in infrastructure that reduces the costs to business and in its industries, which is the ultimate driver of growth. In this sense the Biden administration and Jerome Powell's Fed have accomplished a remarkable deal in the difficult period of the pandemic's four years 2020-2024. Much remains to be done yet this is a big deal, and the next president can leverage these strengths to set the US on the right path, the Way Forward for America.

NYTimes.com Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
This report in NYT looks at the Barbados debt crisis. Barbados spends 55% of its budget to pay interest on debt (servicing the debt). That leaves about 5% for health and climate change. Years of borrowing that ignored basic rules of financing have created serious problems that were compounded by the pandemic and hurricanes. This report shows that the total deb of Barbados was not known to the central bank. Borrowing was approved at exorbitant interest rates. One loan with Credit Suisse for $150 million is shown here with interest rates that lead it to become a catastrophic amount owed. Many such loans without any checks and supervision of total loans taken, lack of financial prudence rules followed, lack of transparency and alerts on borrowing and spending tend to create this kind of situation in many poor countries. About two thirds of developing countries are in this situation owing one third of their budget for debt service or paying interest on the loan. The situation is unstable to begin with. Then on comes along a hurricane or natural disaster such as the pandemic and the unstable situation becomes a catastrophe. Sri Lanka, Pakistan, the Caribbean nations, nations in Africa, face debt crises that are getting worse. It is not inevitable or destiny for nations today, consider the examples of large nations such as Japan, China, South Korea and India, Malaysia, Indonesia, and one can see that development finance can be prudent and responsible, so that situations such as the pandemic can be handled without going into disarray. ...

Notable & Quotable

Wall Street Journal Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Economist Lawrence Lindsey says the Fed has boxed itself and has little choice but to keep interest rates low. Borrowing at the more normal interest rates of 5.7%- which is what it was over the last three decades- and not at the current 2.5%, would mean an increase in borrowing costs for the U.S. government of $800 billion in 2021, says Lindsay. Lindsay bases this on the U.S. debt growing from $14 trillion in 2011 to $25 trillion by 2021, and interest rates going back to normal levels by 2021. Just to put this in perspective Lindsay says it would require all the cuts Republicans and Rep. Ryan are asking for just to pay for the added interest, not even about reducing the size of the U.S. debt. This would be a disaster for the U.S. Treasury, so we're stuck with really low rates. The term used by economists is "financial repression." Savers and retirees will have to put up with low returns. Lowering unemployment is only one aspect of U.S. Fed policy, the other aspect is in the constraints Bernake faces....
WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
The aggressive effort of the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, to increase interest rates to dampen inflation will have an effect on Asian currencies and trade. The Japanese yen lost 14% of its value and the Korean won 8%, Chinese yuan 5% since the beginning of 2022. This is a result of the widening gap between interest rates in the US and Japan where the interest rates have not been increased due to mild inflation.  Asian trade is done in US dollars and exports to the US are invoiced in dollars. Citigroup says about three quarters of trade in Asia-Pacific is invoiced in dollars. Weaker currencies would translate into higher effective prices for imported commodities - energy and food. This pushes up domestic inflation and hurts manufacturing.   Add to this a shift in the US demand from goods into services in 2022 and there is weaker external demand for the economies of Asia. This will exacerbate the slowdown in Asian economies. Many countries such as South Korea and Thailand have increased their external borrowing in dollars. Debt service ratio was 21% in South Korea and 14.5% in Thailand, according to Bank for International Settlements. Years of low rates allowed governments in Asia to borrow more without incurring high interest bills. Now that situation is changing quickly and will result in difficulties for South Korea and Thailand says this report in WSJ. In the last 10 years Asian economies excluding China increased debt to GDP ratios by 15 percentage points, according to Gavekal. The result might not be debt crises as in Sri Lanka but painful slowdowns in economy with combination of loss in external demand from the US and higher inflation, higher interest bills. ...
WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
The dollar remains the dominant force in capital markets. It is strengthening after US central bank raised interest rates 8 times in 2021-2022 to about 5.25%. China is cutting interest rates as its economy with debt at about 290% of GDP is slowing, the EU increasing rates as it faces inflation fueled by price increases and some price gouging. In the US inflation is cut in half by Fed policy to 4% in May 2023, Biden's policies to help with the cost of living and restrain price gouging, and by supply chains working better than in 2021. The US looks the strongest of the lot.

WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
About 41% of Americans have no money invested in the stock market. Frugal savers are now paying off home mortgages and using the savings to reduce debt.  As interest rates rise saving at banks with CD's has the prospect of becoming a viable option, which was taken away by the policies of central banks during financial crises of such as in 2009 of cutting interest rates to zero. The US returns to the more normal environment for savings growth and interest income that prevailed during the period after the 1950's.

New York Times Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Jurgen Kroger, is the chief negotiator for the European Commission, and Poul Thomsen, heads the IMF negotiating team, for the 78 billion euros in loans extended to Portugal under a bailout agreement. Kroger offered his views on the agreement in Lisbon. Kroger said he was convinced that the program gives Portugal the means to boost growth and jobs, as it builds a sustainable and competitive economy. Two thirds of the loans come from the EU at an interest rate that is yet to be set. The yield on Portugal's 10 year bonds keeps rising and is now at 10.20%. The IMF will provide one third of the funds. The IMF's Thomsen said the issue of interest rates was addressed by arranging for two thirds of the loan package money coming in the first of the three years of the program. What this does is to take Portugal out of the markets for medium and long term debt for a "little over two years" he said and gives Portugal the "breathing space" it needs to restore credibility before going to the financial markets. The fear expressed by analysts is that the tough austerity measures in the programs of the EU and IMF can cause the economies of these countries to worsen, making it even harder to repay the much larger debts when the loan package money is added to the original debt. The IMF and the EU negotiators had to create a credible program for recovery in the light of these facts. Already Portugal's finance minister is predicting a contraction in the Portuguese economy of 2% in 2011, and 2% in 2012. The negotiators appear to have taken this into account in setting interest rates. Portugal will pay the IMF an interest rate of 3.25% for the first 3 years, with the rate going to 4.25 in the fourth year. By comparison Greece's loans are for seven years with an average interest rate of 4.2%. Ireland's seven year loans carry an interest rate of 5.8%, which it is working to renegotiate. To give Portugal more breathing space the terms of the loans set a slower reduction in the budget deficit than originally planned. Portugal gets to cut its budget deficit to 5.9% of GDP in 2011, and 4.5% of GDP in 2012. The 3% target is set for 2013, one year later. Economists such as Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics, say the loan package will only increase Portugal's debt and lead to a larger default later on when the debt amount owed is larger. The debt restructuring solution is being actively debated in the EU, including the risks that European banks would take large hits. Negotiators are also mindful of keeping any negative impact on Spain as low as possible. As Portugal's financing costs have risen, Spain's have risen also. Spain offered higher rates to sell 3.4 billion euros of five year bonds on May 5, with the average yield on Spain's bond sale rising to 4.55%, up from 4.39% on March 3. ...
NYTimes.com Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Additional funding of $100 billion is proposed for the World Bank to meet the needs of Africa, and other countries in Latin America and Asia. These needs are for climate change investments, renewable energy, and for health and education that has suffered as debt repayments have increased with higher interest rates, putting 52 countries near default on debt. The US with 16% of the shares in World Bank would contribute $3.2 billion for this to happen.

The Times Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
How much room is there to raise interest rates. Patrick Minford of the University of Cardiff says a lot more. At the rate of 9-10% inflation in Britain more interest rate increases are likely. Minford is advising Liz Truss who is candidate for prime minister. Minford's main ideas are- Get interest rates back up to what was considered normal in previous decades- 5-7% for mortgage rates is what it used to be. At that rate it protects people's savings something that did not happen in the last 2 decades of ultra low rates worsening the wealth gap for Britons in different classes. Cutting taxes is about providing the economy a boost as rates go up. It is not about huge cuts, just modest cuts like the 30 billion pound cuts proposed by Truss. Minford is not talking about low taxes. He is simply talking about having taxes at levels that will promote growth- "the key to growth is not having high taxes. We're not talking about cutting them, just talking about not having them at catastrophic levels." Here is what Liz Truss is proposing- Reverse the recent rise in national insurance. Scrap the increase in corporation tax. About this plan Minford says- "If we raise corporation tax we will kill off growth." Minford dismisses concerns about borrowing. " It's crazy to begin to try to drop the debt to GDP ratio 5 minutes after Covid." With higher rates Minford also think there will be fewer "zombie" companies eating up the nation's capital, while protecting the savings of hard working ordinary people in Britain which hasn't happened in the last two decades of ridiculously low rates, worsening wealth gaps in British society. Minford calls Sunak's policies "puerile" and too much beholden to Treasury thinking. Liz Truss says Sunak's policies are for Brexit in name only, not taking advantage of Brexit to rid Britain of cautious policy that does not capitalize fully on cutting the bureaucratic and regulatory burden to get growth, and trade that favors Britain. ...
The Telegraph Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
The Bank of International Settlements warns that China's "credit to GDP gap" is 30.1. A figure of 10 normally is considered to be high and needs watching. The People's Daily carried an article presumably by president Xi Jinping warning about the consequences of the debt that had been growing "like a tree in the air." The debt to GDP ratio was at 255% at the end of 2015, and is up 107% since 2008 when the financial crisis led to a huge stimulus that has accelerated debt growth. The corporate debt is at 171% of GDP. The article in the People's Daily warned about reflexive stimulus every time growth slows and said that China cannot any longer "force economic growth by levering up." Cross border liabilities is one area of progress falling by a third to $698 billion, as companies cut debt quickly before the U.S. Federal Reserve raises rates. In the future China is more likely to roll over debt as Japan had done following its debt surge and bad debt with zombie companies, which would in turn lead to lower growth. In the past the government was able to absorb the growing debt because it was not as high as it is today, and the economy was growing rapidly. This is no longer the situation, the reason for alarm at the situation facing China. A spike in interest rates of 250 basis points is cited as one situation which could affect China adversely. ...
The Guardian Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University economist, author of the well researched book on the 2008 financial crisis, "This Time Is Different," gives his thoughts on the economic prospects for the U.S under the new Trump administration. He says 4% GDP growth and 3% inflation is possible temporarily for a while with stimulus policies, less regulation, and increased private investment. After 8 years of not investing in much needed infrastructure because of concerns about the deficit, the timing is right for such investments, especially as the economic effects of the crisis of 2008 gradually fade.  This is about taking advantage of ultra low interest rates to invest in infrastructure. He says it helps that Trump policies are pro-business. He sees drawbacks as the stimulus program adds a 25% increase with extra debt, adding $5 trillion over 10 years, but adds that for many years Nobel prize winning economist Krugman and others have said that there is good reason to increase borrowing to invest, and this is now being tried. Inflation remains an uncertainty- if there are large quantities of underutilized and unemployed resources it would raise prices less than its effect to increase output. The reverse would apply if the U.S. economy is closer to full capacity. One factor that would help- increasing confidence for business and increasing investment. Against this what he calls optimistic view or spin, is the idea of mistakes under a Trump administration, errors made and a degree of incompetence which he says is a real possibility. Overall his view is that some risks are appropriate now, and from his deep study of financial crises sees the slow growth of the last 8 years a result of a financial crisis that now begins to fade, creating the possibility of higher growth under prudent policies.  ...
The Economist Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
The hike in the interest rate by 6% by the central bank of Argentina brings interest rates up to 40%. This is part of an effort to stem the decline in the value of the Argentina peso. The peso has lost a fifth of its value against the dollar so far in 2018, with a run on the peso seen on May 4th. The problems started with the central bank loosening its inflation target to 15% from 12%, says this report in the Economist. Inflation has shot up to 25% in Argentina in the last 12 months. Raising interest rates to as high as 40% is a risky move because of the effect on economic growth. President Macri and his Cambiemos (we can change) coalition won the election in 2015 by 2 percentage points over the Peronista Kirchner led party which ran the country after the debt crisis on a policy of debt reduction (desdeudameinto). Argentina's current account deficit is at 5% and growing rapidly. A major problem is the huge dollar denominated debt issued in 2016 and 2017 by the government, local government and private sector. According to the central bank BRCA the dollarized assets in 2016-2017 are about $25 billion representing capital flight, with $8 billion going for debt interest payments, profits and dividends, and $14 billion for travel and tourism. For a total of $50 billion according to central bank BRCA going to finance debt service payments, capital flight, profit remittances abroad, and tourism as a result of the issuance of $100 billion in dollar denominated debt by Argentina's government (90%) and private sector (10%). This is the first time such a large figure of dollar denominated debt was created after the financial crisis in Argentina during the first 2 Kirchner administrations during which time the debt was substantially reduced. This has led to S&P putting Argentina on the list of 5 most fragile economies in 2017. Instead of a gradual increase in issuing debt to finance economic development and focus on limiting loss through capital flight, avoiding rapid growth in dollar denominated debt, the Macri government has repeated the mistakes of the past in managing the economy. ...
WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
The ruble plunges from 83 to the dollar to 111 for its largest single day fall on record on Feb. 27, following the swift American and European response to the Ukraine invasion. The Bank of Russia raised interest rates to 20% from 9.5%. The situation is reminiscent of August 1998 when the government devalued the ruble and suspended payments on debts, leading to collapse of the banking system. That situation led to emergence of Mr. Putin as the Russian economy was stabilized in the years following the collapse. By acting quickly with sanctions on Russia's central bank and on its other banks the trade in the ruble has essentially seized. Russia this WSJ report says may default on its debt as it would not be able to use its $600 billion in foreign currency reserves to support the ruble or its banking system, pay off outstanding debt payments.

WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
China's consumer prices declined by 0.3% in July. There are signs that the economy is slowing. A deflationary trend is taking shape with buyers declining to spend following layoffs at companies, higher unemployment and less growth. Expectations of falling prices could further sap demand worsening the debt situation in China. China's economy has grown in the last decade by assuming ever larger debt burden. The debt in 2022 was three times the GDP of China. Servicing this debt becomes harder when consumer demand is weak. The situation in the US is different with the central bank the US Fed increasing interest rates to lower inflation from 9% in 2022 to 3.2% in July, and expectations of a drop ion inflation with lower shelter costs in rest of 2023.

New York Times Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
UBS and Bank of America reach a settlement with Detroit before the city declared bankruptcy. The settlement was for interest rate swap contracts signed by Detroit officials in 2005, and settles the contracts for 75 cents on the dollar or $230 million. There is safe harbor for traders and banks in interest rate swaps or derivative contracts, so that the usual stay that blocks creditors from collecting debts does not operate. This kind of treatment for derivative contracts makes no logical sense in the context say experts. The swap contracts of 2005 were signed at a time the city took out a $1.4 billion variable interest rate loan to put into its pension funds, with the swaps as a hedge against rising interest rates. In fact Detroit is seeking a $350 million loan from Barclays Capital and it needs to resolve the swap for that loan. From this loan UBS and Bank of America get their $230 million leaving $120 million for streetlights, police and city services badly needed today. Public interest considerations of this kind were not considered by Congress when it made the rule for safe harbors universal in derivative contracts to reduce systemic risk of one financial institution dragging others into a systemic crisis. The safe harbor make it harder for a judge to say this thing smells and make attempts to change it. ...
NYTimes.com Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Leaders of Africa's development banks and the president of Kenya make this plea for adjustments on debt repayments and a moratorium on debt servicing before the annual conference of global finance at Marrakech, Morocco. The problems are: a 35% increase in debt repayments to $62 billion for Africa with increase in interest rates. The total debt of Africa now at $1.8 trillion. The neglect of education and health when countries such as Zambia and Ghana default on debt. The complexity of debt renegotiation with 40% of debt in private hands and 31% with China which is not part of Paris Club. It took 3 years for Zambia to negotiate its way out. And 23 nations in Africa are near default out of the 52 in the world facing this situation.


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