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Support for Mandela's African National Congress, the ANC, has dropped as it fails to manage the economy for growth to meet aspirations of young people. Support dropped to below 40% and a majority for ANC in parliament is unlikely in the upcoming election. The pandemic hit South Africa hard and the weak economy, lack of growth, high unemployment, are serious problems.

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The ANC loses the 2024 elections in South Africa barely getting 40% of the vote. Jacob Zuma's party MK won 15% of the vote. South Africa faces high unemployment, crime, corruption and mismanagement of the economy.

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This indepth report from the Economist looks at the damage done in 9 years of rule under Jacob Zuma, and the prospects of the African National Congress under the new leadership of Cyril Ramaphosa. The South African economy suffered under Jacob Zuma. The Zuma government hurt the government's finances, and suffered from corruption and mismanagement. Only 21% of South Africans trust their government in one poll. This indepth report also asks the question- how much has changed since the days of Apartheid South Africa? Mandela's release from prison in 1990, and the ANC party winning elections in 1994 changed South Africa into a multi cultural and multi ethnic society with democracy. A liberal constitution protects the rights of all of South Africa's communities and citizens. Share of households without electricity fell from 42% in 1996 to 10% in 2016. Black people make up 50% of the middle class. Blacks now make up more buyers of suburban homes than whites. Race relations are better today. The problem is that progress and improvement in living and economic conditions stalled after 2009 when Jacob Zuma as head of the African National Congress became president. GDP per person declined after 2013. Half of South Africans were born after the end of Apartheid in 1994. Nearly 40% of people of age 15-34 are not in work, training or education. To get into the middle class one needs a job. About 62% of South Africans would trade democracy for an unelected leader who could deliver on housing and jobs and the economy. Cyril Ramaphosa was made president and head of the ANC after a bruising struggle to oust Jacob Zuma in 2017 ANC conference. He now faces elections in May 2019. In the 1980's he led the National Union of Mineworkers. He later became secretary general of the ANC in the 1990's and led talks for democracy. Ramphosa was passed over by Mandela because of pressure within ANC to select Thabo Mbeki. Mbeki was followed by Zuma, also from ANC. Ramaphosa then joined business, as a small number of well connected black South Africans and made $450 million through preferential access to equity in large firms for a few black South Africans. Then went back to the ANC as deputy president,  then deputy president of the country. The Economist says after Zuma South Africa is running out of time, and Mr. Ramaphosa expected to win, faces many challenges, particularly youth unemployment. ...

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Without FW De Klerk's vision and leadership, and courage to go against the instincts of Afrikaaners in the National Party, could South Africa have ended up in civil war and become like some other African nations a failed state? This was a distinct possibility in the 1990's and a failed state today would be much worse than any of the difficulties that South Africa has faced so far. By 1992 with release of Nelson Mandela and 1994 with elections based on universal franchise, De Klerk had dismantled much of the system of Apartheid or race based rule of white Afrikaaners. Apartheid was a system of racial segregation based government imposed by a white Afrikaaner government in 1948 and which continued till 1994. Afrikaaners are descendants of Dutch immigrants to the Transvaal and other regions in British South Africa. They briefly fought a war with the British called the Boer War from 1899 to 1902. Today there are about 2.7 million Afrikaaners in South Africa, about 100,000 in Namibia, about 41,000 in Zambia. As best seen on the cricket grounds white and black Africans in South Africa and Namibia are part of a new mutiracial country. Much of this made possible by De Klerk's courage as a Transvaaler who made the right choices after assuming the leadership of the National party in 1989, coming from provincial roots in Transvaal.  ...

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German effort to be actively involved in African countries and in aid and investment to Africa, is one of the lessons learned from the migration crisis. Anglea Merkel cisits south Africa and Angola in an effort to improve ties with these countries and the rest of Africa. South Africa gets two thirds of all German investments in Africa. It is also an important ally in Compact with Africa launched in 2017, and better ties with the election of Ramaphosa in South Africa. Angola is moving to restore better ties under a new government of president Joao Lourenco with its focus on the economy.

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Young South Africans, the so called born frees- born after the end of Apartheid and free elections in 1994- are diillusioned with the African National Congress of Nelson Mandela. They are disssatisfied with the lack of jobs, a poor education system, and tired of the corruption scandals under former president Jacob Zuma. A recent IPSOS poll shows only 55% of 18-24 year olds supporting the ANC compared to 61% overall. Some polls showed support dropping from born frees to below 50%. Almost half of the 58 million people of South Africa are born frees. Their view is expressed by one mother of three living in a shack in Alexandra Township in Johannesburg. She says we tried the ANC but are still living in squatter camps and dirty places. Only the ANC's reach into rural areas, its superior organization, and lack of viable alternatives, are likely to keep the ANC back in power. The Economic Freedom Fighters led by Mr. Malema, a former head of the ANC youth wing is likely to double its vote to 12% from the last election.  ...

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A sense of entitlement and hold on power can be seen throughout Africa. A lack of the kind of education that creates an ethic of responsibility for the educated and ruling classes, an honest civil service, and experience with and development of democratic institutions with their own checks and balances, account for some of the principal reasons for this failure in government. Even in South Africa, which has experienced several elections and is on the path to gaining experience in democratic government, Jacob Zuma and the African National Congress display some of these tendencies of entitlement to power.

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A look at the graph showing inflation adjusted GDP growth in the South African apartheid years of 1980-1994, show GDP declines in 6 of the 14 years, with 3 years of decline in the last 5 years of apartheid rule. Which shows that the economy was suffering from a combination of world sanctions and the war with the African National Congress to defend apartheid. In 1996 an agreement was reached with the ANC to transfer power and end apartheid in South Africa. Some of the pressures against apartheid came from the business community's perceived interest in maintaining growth. This has been borne out by the graph showing the inflation adjusted growth in the years of ANC rule starting in 1995, which show a striking difference with growth between 4-6% for 1995-2008, high growth rates for 13 of 14 years, and slight decline in only one year 1998. This bears out the policy of business and a democratically elected government with respect for minority rights, and black-white-colored and tribal loyalties being reconciled to goals of economic growth and democracy. For two years Nelson Mandela head of the ANC maintained continuity in economic policies by retaining the white finance minister from the previous apartheid government. In 1996 Trevor Manuel who had little economic experience- who worked as an activist to organize protests against high bus fares and rents under apartheid governments- was made finance minister. He has been finance minister now for 13 years, and only resigned when President Mbeki resigned after losing the leadership election of the ANC. In the early years he controlled government spending to pay off South Africa's tremendous debt. He brought down inflation and built up foreign reserves. After the election of Jacob Zuma, another ANC veteran, supported by young black people, in September 2008, and his likely win in the current election, it appears that Zuma will retain Trevor Manuel. This ensures continuity in the face of the global recession, especially hitting commodity producers like South Africa. South Africa compares favorably with Nigeria in economic growth and modernization, spread of mobile phones, computers, literacy rates, but suffers from high unemployment, and low life expectancy. Pressures are increasing to do more for unemployment, address the crumbling infrastructure, and provide more help to the poor. Zuma has the support of the unions known as Cosatu and the Communist party, and of young blacks, in a country where one third of the population is under 15 years of age and over 40% of the population has mobile phones. South Africa has the largest economy in South Africa, is larger in land mass than Nigeria, has about 45 million people - a third of the population of Nigeria with 127 million population which has fertility rate of 5.6 twice that of South Africa- and GDP of 213 billion compared to $72 billion for Nigeria. Literacy rates are 82% for S. Africa and 68% for Nigeria, showing that higher literacy rates are lowering fertility rates and population growth. The figures are from the 2007 Economist pocketbook World in Figures. A strong press and media provides check on corruption which siphons away development funds in the public sector in commodity dependent countries like Nigeria. The private sector controls commodity exports of South Africa. So even with the relative lack neglect of the poor and unemployed in South Africa, and of health care, South Africa has done better overall than Nigeria. Average annual inflation was 5.1% in South Africa, compared to 15.7% in Nigeria, and this hits the poor the hardest. It goes to show that when it comes to modernization it helps to be inclusive, reconciliation oriented, and bring together all the resources of the country including a vigorous press and media, and business, regardless of color, race, creeds, faith, tribe or caste....

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Lydia Polgreen and Marcus Mabry talk to black and white South Africans in Bloemfontein, the capital of the Afrikaaner Orange Free State. The National Party which started Apartheid as state policy in 1948 and the African National Congress were both founded in Bloemfontein. The accounts provide insights into race relations in South Africa and the growing gap between the economic condition of black and white people. After free elections and about 20 years of ANC governments under Mandela, Mbeki, and Zuma, progress has been made in primary and secondary schooling but most blacks are falling behind in the skills needed in a modern economy as shown by the widening income gap from $17,000 in 2001 to $30,000 in 2011. Less than 40% of South Africans socialize with other races, according to SA Reconciliation Barometer. 22% of whites and 20% of blacks live in racially integrated neighborhoods. 11% of white children and 15% of black children attend integrated schools. The result is a South Africa where a lot remains to be done after Mandela....

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DW.com looks at the elections in Senegal, Nigeria, South Africa and Namibia, with active civil society, and development efforts in Senegal, efforts to restore the popularity of the ANC in South Africa with new plans for land reform.  

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The boost to investor perceptions for India with Modi's election, and to Indonesia with Widodo's election are major changes in the second half of 2014. The first half saw the dented confidence in Argentina, Venezuela, Turkey and South Africa. To this can be added Russia with Putin's response in Ukraine and western sanctions. China with Jinping's response to pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong for restoration of the pledge of free elections by 2017, appears to be losing investor confidence, especially with investors seeing this as adopting the Putin Way. This is happening with a gradual movement towards restoration of trade relations with Iran.

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As Jacob Zuma resigns on Feb. 14, 2018, he leaves behind a South Africa in which the African National Congress is no longer the party that Nelson Mandela led in the struggle against Apartheid. South Africa's economy and governance has suffered during his 9 year rule. Corruption and mismanagement of the economy during this period led to the ANC forcing Zuma to resign a year and half before his term expires. He is replaced by Cyril Ramphosa, the deputy president of the ANC, an anti-apartheid leader who became a businessmen with ANC connections.  A black lower middle class failed to see the promises made by the ANC realized under successive ANC leaders Mbeki and Zuma. Police action against miners during a strike in 2012 led to the growing belief that the ANC leadership had distanced itself from its roots among ordinary South Africans. In recent years Zuma was unpopular in Gauteng province which includes the large cities of Johannesburg and Pretoria. Appointment of loyalists with little experience to senior positions in the cabinet and state companies including state utility Eskom and South African Airways, led to poor management and corruption. A case relating to use of $650,000 in public funds for upgrading a Zuma homestead led to a court case and impeachment proceedings. In the 2016 local elections the ANC lost in the major cities. leading to a sense that the ANC's rural vote could not ensure winning half the vote in the upcoming 2019 elections.   ...

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The ANC loses the 2016 municipal elections in several large South African cities to the Democratic Alliance. The city of Port Elizabeth, long associated with Nelson Mandela, is now with the Democratic Alliance. It shows voter dissatisfaction with the ANC and Jacob Zuma.

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Dreams of democracy in Hong Kong fade and Martin Lee, a founder of the city's pro-democracy party is becoming marginalized. This report describes Lee's fleeing to Hong Kong as a child after 1949. He became a UK trained barristers and head of the bar association, Queen's Counsel, and only adopted his current role of democracy advocate after 1980 when the handover of the city back to China was discussed. During the British period Lee did not protest and the city was ruled in an authoritarian manner by the British governor. Only a handful of seats were opened for direct election in 1991 for the legislative council, so that the British never really experimented with democratic institutions in Hong Kong. In other British dominions in India and Ceylon elections for state legislatures started in the 1920's and 1930's in response to demands from Gandhi and the Congress party in India. In South Africa and Canada, Australia, these elections were held much earlier. No such effort happened in Hong Kong, and Hong Kong's elite mostly concentrated on business and expanding economy. When handover took place authority was simply transferred from one authoritarian system to another says this report in WSJ. ...

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As part of Gandhi 150th the Hindustan Times gives pictures from archives of the independence struggle and Gandhi's efforts to get the British to quit India. After a period of 21 years in South Africa as a lawyer for rights of indentured laborers (coolies the British term) and of Indians in South Africa, Gandhi returned to India in 1914. He followed the program of personal responsibility starting with himself, that he had written in "Hind Swaraj" on a steamship from Britain to South Africa in 1910, for the next 20 years. He did not blame the British, and asked Indians to take responsibility for what had happened, and write a new chapter.   A period of home rule in the provinces with Congress party administrations in the 1930's ended by 1938. Gandhi launched the Quit India movement in 1942 with leaders Sardar Patel, Rajendra Prasad, and Jawaharlal Nehru. The end of the war and the rejection of Churchill in Britain's post war election in 1945 led to a Labour government led by Clement Atlee that sent Lord Mountbatten to negotiate British withdrawal from India. Gandhi saw clearly that in a country largely of rural labor in subsistence agriculture, getting people to learn about their own dignity was a first and indispensable step.  Once this was done, home rule administrations could pick up the experience of local government  (Hind Swaraj). His idea was that a few tens of thousands of Britishers focussed on trade as the British were a nation of shopkeepers, in the midst of hundreds of millions of people with a new found  sense of dignity and participation in political life, would make the British realize there was little advantage in staying. By the end of the war in 1945 experts looking into the archives show John Keynes advising the British government to withdraw because the cost was too great for Britain to remain, particularly after the war had drained a lot of Britain's wealth. ...

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In over a decade after Mandela the A.N.C. under Jacob Zuma sees its vote drop from 62.5% to below 50%. The opposition Democratic Alliance wins 27% of the vote and the A.N.C. loses in the important cities of Johannesburg, Pretoria and Port Elizabeth. South Africa's urbanization is proceeding rapidly with the country 65% urban today. In this situation the country is seeing a political situation of racially diverse cities voting against the A.N.C. under Zuma's administration, which is seen as corrupt and mismanaging the economy. Zuma is seeing his support now left mostly in the rural areas. He is also losing the support of women. Mmsi Maimane is a young black lay preacher, who leads the Democratic Alliance, a party with its origins in liberal politics during the Apartheid era, with participaton of whites, coloreds, Asians and blacks in urban areas.

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This obituary for FW De Klerk looks back at the dismantling of race based rule of Apartheid in South Africa in 1992, the release of Nelson Mandela, and elections in 1994 through universal franchise. This was done by the son of a schoolteacher in the Transvaal region who rose to the top through the provincial leadership. De Klerk took the actions to bring racial harmony after growing up as an Afrikkaner and working in the local politics of the National Party that introduced Apartheid rule. Before 1989 reforms in the Botha government left black people on 13% of the worst land in the country, tribal homelands in which they did not even live in, in a distorted form of representation. Limited representation was given to Indian ethnic minorities and colored people.  All this changed between 1992 and 1994 after De Klerk assumed leadership of the National Party and the government in 1989. This required great courage and statesmanship, and vision from De Klerk to set the foundations for a multiracial society that even Margaret Thatcher and Reagan failed to grasp and promote. De Klerk died in 2020. For Mandela the path was clear, for De Klerk the path had to be forged out of nothing and against the natural instincts of his own party. This saved south Africa to become a true multi racial society with respect for the rule of law and democracy. ...

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Argentina, South Africa, Mexico, India, UK, European Union elections are taking place by June 2024 and US in November 2024. Yet it is misleading to lump them together. Much discontent is there to see as in the UK with cost of living, governance, time wasted on Brexit, India with lingering effects of the pandemic on rural voters, caste based voting. In India protest vote of lower caste Dalit voters in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, even with government support in forms of universal healthcare, food for poor households during pandemic extended, cooking gas, housing support, clean tap water, direct bank account deposit to accounts of poor and farmers. Yet in the states in the south and east in Orissa and Andhra Pradesh, and generally in the south the BJP vote count increased so that losses in the north were made up leaving the percentage of vote for India for Modi's BJP party at 37 percent in 2024 instead of 38% in 2019, losing the absolute majority 240 seats of 543 yet having campaigned heavily for partners who added seats 294 of 543. In the UK Keir Starmer may see some vote preference for Labor erode yet the Conservative record is in shambles even conservative experts will say, as in India where the opposition parties offer no prospects for the future and little track record for making India the second or third largest economy in the world which the BJP has set and shown to have achieved over 10 years by taking India to No. 5 in the world economies. ...

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This Weekend Essay in The Times by Tom McTague looks at the European Union skepticism about the US after the failure of three administrations under Bush, Obama and Trump to extricate America from wars,  concentrate on building its infrastructure and manufacturing, renewing the lives of workers and families that were neglected. That skepticism came from administrations in Europe that also failed the Europeans in much the same way with the neglect of infrastructure, manufacturing, and little done for climate change under Schroeder and Merkel, Sarkozy, Hollande and Macron. The dependence on China for manufacturing and on Russia for energy for the EU and Britain made the situation even worse than in the US.  Al this has changed with the election of president Biden in the US, and Scholz with Habeck- Baerbock in Germany and with the recent elections in France upholding workers and families, acting on climate change. A false idea is presented about the Europe vs US and dominance as each is part of the free world alongside India, Australia, Japan, South east Asia, Latin America, French and English language Africa. This is why one has the G7 and G20 with countries like Argentina, Brazil and Indonesia critical parts of the free world. It is the ignorance of many officials in the EU more than the sentiments of the people of the free world in all these countries that leads to these false ideas about which country is dominant and skepticism - none are dominant it is through the unity of all and a shared vision in international rule of law, fairness, humility, respect for poorer nations. It is this that Kipling talked about in his poem "Intercessional," the lines repeatedly calling for the Lord's grace and for man to merit that grace with "a humble and contrite heart." It is also the spirit that so recently Mohandas Gandhi grasped and put forward for India and the world. Europeans talk about dominance- think about this for a moment, Gandhi merely asked for the right to move freely for Indians and Asians including Chinese at a meeting in 1908 where he gave a speech. The speech was on May 18, 1908, at the YMCA in Johannesburg and it debated the question "Are Asiatic and colored Races a Menace to the British Empire."  Not a word of ill will was uttered by Mohandas Gandhi even when talking about segregation in the speech. It is a humble and contrite heart that the Lord listens to. Both India and South Africa found a way out in a different way with faith in a higher authority, that even the British had not failed to address as Kipling clearly shows. ...

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The ANC wins 62.2% of the vote in South Africa's 2014 general election.