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Casey describes the crucial policy errors in Brazil with over spending and lack of transparency in the years leading to the crisis in 2014-2015. Brazil raised interest rates half a percentage point in May 2015 to 13.25%. Inflation was at 8.13% in Brazil in March 2015. Brazilian companies have large dollar denominated debt accumulated during the boom years which needs to be refinanced as its currency the real declines. With current policies economic growth is likely to continue at 0-1%. Russia made policy errors with the departure of Kudrin as finance minister for Putin's second term as president. Policies to attract foreign investment, controlling military expenditures, and continuing growth were reversed as Russia took positions on Ukraine that led to western sanctions, capital outflows, and a sharp decline in the ruble. By May 2015 the ruble and oil prices had recovered from lows, but the ruble was still 35% below the level in June 2014, and the oil prices were still only two thirds of the peak in 2014. Russia sees the decline in the ruble as a way to reduce imports and increase import substitution for many products. The economy is weakened by high inflation- inflation was 6.9% in March 2014, going up to 16.9% in March 2015. In May 2015 Russia lowered the target repo rate by 1.5 percentage points to 12%. Russia faces stagflation- high unemployment with low GDP growth, and high inflation....

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A 12% drop in Russia's RTS stock index on March 2, 2014, as Russia occupied the Crimea in Ukraine. The Russian economy was slowing down before the crisis. This is likely to reduce foreign investment in the economy. The ruble has declined 9% aginst the dollar in Jan-Feb. 2014. As a temporary measure the Russian central bank made a rate hike on March 2, 2014 of 1.5% to 7%. This is a difficult act for the central bank as raising rates could push the economy into recession.

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The Putin administration in Russia has set a goal for 2.5% GDP growth for 2013. The figures for the first 5 months of 2013 show growth at 1.8%. Russian president Putin told the St. Petersburg Economic Forum that central bank policies will continue inflation targeting. Putin's economic aide Ms. Elvira Nabiullina will become the new head of the central bank in July 2013. David Lipton, deputy head of the IMF told the forum the IMF assessment is that there is no slack in the Russian economy. Putin announced $13.6 billion in infrastructure investment for rail and road links, and liberalization of gas export rules, and improvements in the judicial system.

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The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) reduced its forecasts for GDP growth in Russia to 3.1% for 2012 and 3.3% for 2013. Moody's Investors Service warned that the Russian economy could contract 5% in the next 10-12 months and the ruble could depreciate by 30% if the eurozone crisis worsens.

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Ilan Berman, vice president of the Foreign Policy Council in Washington D.C., cites former finance minister Alexei Kudrin about capital flight from Russia reaching as high as $160 billion in 2014. This is a result of Russian policies in Ukraine that are creating a high degree of uncertainty and investor fears about the Russian economy. The result Kudrin says would be a stagnating economy. This follows the emerging market crisis in the beginning of 2014, which hit Turkey, Argentina, and Brazil. Kudrin is respected for his efforts to strengthen Russia's finances in Putin's first term in office, and left the administration over disagreement with prime minister Medvedev on damage to finances from higher defense spending. This suggests Putin and Medvedev in their first terms as president conducted more prudent policies for the economy than they are doing in Putin's second term. A certain recklessness seems to have crept in as many respected advisors from that period have left over differences in policy, including how protests and the opposition's views should be handled. This includes Medvedev's early efforts after elections for dialogue with the opposition parties which were set aside by Putin. The danger with having a Bolivarist class of tycoons as in Venezuela and some developing countries, instead of wiser heads around him for Putin, is that he will lose the advice and counsel he so badly needs to conduct policies without letting emotions getting the better of a sound judgement. A large foreign exchange reserve is a buffer for Russia, but this needs to be used to diversify the economy away from dependence on oil and commodities by investing in technology industries to create jobs in other fields, and not wasted in higher defense spending and fighting investor sentiment for the value of the ruble. It also shows that there is an inherent value in having a "loyal opposition" and "shadow cabinet," and these institutions were not invented over centuries of practice in government without a reason, in that they actually help the governing administration pursue prudent policy without arbitrary actions. The irony is that the very fears of 1998 repeating itself with the "chaos" of western style democracy and politics and manipulation by oligarchs- a Putin complaint- is reversing the gains made by Russia since then, with another set of tycoons and vested interests in place. Russians, like the Germans can learn to make democracy work without a centuries long history of democratic traditions, elections and free media. Czarist traditions can be overcome just as the Prussian traditions were overcome, and Russians can come up with their own Wily Brandts and Gaucks, leaving behind the old history of suppressing contrary opinions. For this to happen Russians including Mr. Putin need to leave their own fears behind, and trust the Russian people for the right instincts and values and maturity of judgement, just as the Germans have done and succeeded. ...

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Russia's government lowers its forecast for GDP growth in 2013 to 1.8%. Like other emerging markets Russia is facing a slowdown in economc growth. Government forecasts are for 3% growth for 2014 and 2015. About 50% of revenues in the budget come from oil exports and Russia is still dependent on higher oil prices. The budget is likely to have a 1% of GDP deficit in 2015. President Putin is not inclined to run a large deficit to increase growth. Budget revenues are expected to come lower for 2014 and 2015 by 3.3% and 6.9% compared to forecasts. Finance ministry policy is for hiking taxes on mineral extraction 16% by 2015, and increasing excise taxes on cigarettes and alcohol. State run firms will be asked to pay out 35% of profits as dividends compared to the current 25%, providing $39 billion from this action, according to the Finance ministry.

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Russia faces inflation of 7%, and the central bank policy is to fight inflation by increasing interest rates to 7% in March 2014. The crisis in Ukraine and Russian intervention in the Crimea has worsened the prospects for the economy at a delicate time after Russia's growth rate was slowing rapidly in 2013. Capital flight in 2013 accelerated in the 1st quarter with the Ukraine crisis- with about $60 billion in capital outflows in the 1st quarter 2014. Speaking at an investor conference in Moscow, the former finance minister Alexei Kudrin, who strengthened Russia's finances in Putin's previous term continued to warn about taking risks with the economy and Russia's finances. He had earlier warned about higher defense spending. He now says the sharp economic slowdown expected with a possible contraction of 1.8% in 2014, is the price Russia is paying for an independent foreign policy. The policy is popular in Russia now with Putin's rating at about 80% in April 2014, but Kudrin says this does not reflect the situation if the contraction leads to falling real incomes. As investment spending stalled in the 1st quarter, only consumer spending supports growth for the remainder of the year. Russia's Economics Ministry favors stimulus to support growth, but the central bank is concerned about keeping inflation of 7% in check, and the Finance Ministry favors current policy of building up the rainy day fund from higher oil prices. As a result no stimulus is planned even as the economy slips into a risky contraction phase. For emerging markets in 2014 political problems have exacerbated slowing growth first in Turkey in 2013, and now in Russia in 2014, with the reverse taking place in India and Indonesia where elections and a change in government lead to more optimism....

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Trust bank is rescued with a $530 million injection by Russia's central bank in Dec. 2014. The bank was taken over by the Deposit Insurance Agency which guaranteed the deposits of customers. As Russia raises interests by 17%, the ruble stabilizes with a 5% gain on Dec. 22, 2014. Alexei Kudrin, former finance minister and the architect of Russia's improved finances during Putin's previous terms in office, told a news conference that Russia now faces a full fledged economic crisis that will be painful in 2015. He expects a drop of 40% in imports, inflation at 12 to 15%, and decline in living standards. He also said Russia's credit rating could fall to junk status making it difficult to obtain financing. Kudrin was critical of the way the Russian government handled the crisis, saying action was slow and the government did not act as one team. He called for improved relations with western partners- "For a way out of the crisis, it is of high importance to regulate relations with our foreign partners- first of all with Europe, the U.S. and other partners."...

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Russia's Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev, says Russia's economy contracted in the first of 2014 compared with the prior quarter. Intensifed capital flows and lack of new investment could lead to the economy and GDP declining by 1.8% in 2014, according to the ministry forecast. Russia experienced capital outflows of $60 billion in the 2014 1st quarter, almost as much as for all of 2013. Russian law caps spending not covered by direct revenue at 1% of GDP. He called for tapping the rainy day fund for spending on infrastructure and investment to revive growth. Currently much of the revenue from high oil prices goes into building up the rainy day fund, used to cushion the impact of financial crises, after learning from the disaster of the 1998 financial crisis when the ruble collapsed.

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Factors making Russia different from other emerging markets are the foreign exchange reserves of $497 billion. From mid 2009 to the end of 2012 portfolio inflows were only 1% of GDP, according to Morgan Stanley. Problems in Russia include growth slowing to 1.5% and higher inflation with reliance on oil revenues. Russia is still dependent on oil and gas revenues and has not diversified the economy. Foreign investment is limited.

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U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, says Russia's entry into the World Trade Organization in the summer of 2012 will be good for the global economy and for the U.S. It will increase U.S. exports to Russia from the low level of 1% of U.S. global exports. It will also set the right tone for improving U.S.-Russia relations and improving cooperation on global issues. She calls for Congress to change the Jackson-Vanik amendment and setting up normal trading relations between the U.S. and Russia. It is a smart investment in trade with Russia,and also a way to help Russia diversify its economy, setup an open political system and put its world trading relationships on a more transparent basis with clear tariff rates.

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The impact of the resignation of Alexei Kudrin, Russia's Finance Minister, on financial markets and the value of the ruble.

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Former Russian finance minister, Alexei Kudrin, tells a news confrence at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, that Russia should brace itself for an extended period when oil prices drop from $90 in June to $60. Russian finances are based on oil prices at $117 per barrel. He cautioned against the high military and social spending planned by the Putin administration.

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Bill Keller of the New York Times, reflects on his experience in Moscow during the fall of communism, and the Russian youth then and their children in the protest marches in Moscow today. He sees a new generation with different expectations, not limited by the past in what they think is possible, should be and is normal.

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Russia's leading business paper Vedemosti summed up the situation on Dec. 17, 2014, in its editorial- "This is a very dangerous situation; we are separated from a fully fledged run on the banks by just a few days..If the currency market is not reassured right now, the banking system will require large external support." Warning signs were evident at a banking conference in Moscow in October 2014 when the Economy minister, the central bank head Nabiullina, and the head of the largest bank Sberbank, German Gref, expressed skepticism about the economic policies and the risks involved. Not until Dec. 17, was a decisive response evident and the risks of a collapsing ruble openly addressed with economic actions by the Putin administration. A collapsing ruble would have repercussions on the global financial markets and slowing global economy, increasing potential geopolitical risk, and adding to risk of contagion for other emerging markets, which was reflected in the nervousness of global financial markets on Dec 15-16, 2014....

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Russia's State Statistics Committee says growth slowed in the second quarter of 2013 to 1.2%, declining from 1.6% in the first 3 months. Inflation is at 6.4% for August, according to the Economy Ministry. The Russian central bank has resisted lowering rates because of the inflation target of 6%. The Putin adminstration is seeking 4-5% growth, after an average annual growth rate of 7.2% from 2000-2009, during the period of high growth in Putin's first term as president and second term as prime minister. There is a slowdown in foreign investment in the Russian economy, as investors in Europe and the U.S. shift away from emerging markets in 2013. In addition to this commodity prices are declining.

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Foreign investors make up only 7% of Russia's domestic bond market compared to 30% for similiarly rated Mexico. Russia is rated BBB by Standard & Poor's. Moody's Investors Services rating is one notch higher. The yield on Russia's 10 year government bond is about 7%, compared to 4.35% for Italy and 1.8% for U.S. Treasurys. Russia's deputy finance minister, Alexei Moiseyev, says he hopes changes will raise the foreign holdings to about 33%. Martin Gilman, a former IMF representative to Russia in 1998, and now a professor at Moscow's Higher School of Economics, says rates will go higher because of appreciation in the ruble and large monetary easing in Europe and the U.S. The situation has changed completely from the 1998 Russian default on debt payments of $160 billion. The IMF estimate is for overall debt to be about 11% of GDP by the end of 2014.