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Russian shadow fleet and about 80% of Russian oil now sanctioned after US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil- Feb 2026. This is putting more oil onto a fleeet of vessels operating under Comoros, Sierra Leone and third nation flags, or even two flags, which the Americans and Europeans are tracking and diverting. Russia seeks to put this oil on an alternative tanker fleet it owns and which is insured by Russia, that goes from the Baltic and Black seas to the Mediterranean to refineries in Turkey, India and China. What thsi does is increases risks for Russia in shipping and for the Euroepans and Americans when ships fly Russian flags with military convoy. The overall effect of cutting Russian oil exports in addition to India committing to buy American oil and Venezuelan oil instead of Russian oil in its trade agreement with US, is that Russian economy may be in risky territory. Inflation is higher than official 6 percent at 16% interest rates, and this increases the risk. Budget needs within Russia may not be met as this continues. It is in Russia's interest now to conclude a peace agreement with Ukraine, now that the US has moved away from NATO/Europe to peaceful cooperation with Russia and competition with China. ...

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This BBC report says the Russian Black Sea fleet is reduced to little more than a coastal flotilla and the fleet is now adopting a defensive posture after heavy losses. This also makes an attack on Odessa unlikely. Odessa and other Black sea ports are where grain shipments leave Ukraine for Africa and other parts of Europe. This means shipments using Turkey and UN sponsored deal can now safely be routed from Odessa. 

It also means Ukraine is in a better position in the south in and around Crimea.

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"Wars have been lost because of logistics," says the director of logistics and engineering in US Central Command. Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges says the Russian logistics system is exhausted- that it was never setup in a way that it could support a long conflict outside of Russia. It has smaller fleets of trucks and is dependent on rail lines in the south near Kherson and Crimea that have been hit. These trucks now have to travel longer distances to supply the troops. Damaged bridges also lead to difficult supply conditions. Ukraine seeks to use this has a way to push Russia out of Kherson and other region in and near Crimea along the Black Sea.

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Landers and Gale of the WSJ show how undersupplied conscript soldiers, high inflation and industrial breakdowns during wartime have led to major upheavals in Russia. Three conflicts led to such changes in Russia's domestic situation. The Russo-Japanese war in 1905 led to Russia seeing one fourth of 340,000 Russian troops killed in a battle near the Chinese city of Shenyang, and loss of most of its Baltic fleet in a Japanese attack on Port Arthur. The war ended with a peace treaty arranged by president Theodore Roosevelt of the United States. The Russian czar gave up most of his absolute powers in 1905.  In 1914 Ukraine was involved in regime change as the Germans fought to take Ukraine. The czar wanted to keep Russia's expansive sphere of influence. Without Ukraine's agriculture and industry and its population Russia would not be a great power, says an expert on Czarist Russia. At the time the Russian military was ill prepared in motorized vehicles and communications equipment, and industry lacked the ability to resupply the military. Inflation jumped leading to unrest and protests. Fighting in the First World War led to millions of refugees. In 2022 experts see the same old problem of seeking spheres of influence leading to wars, and the lack of sufficient ability to cope with prolonged wars when short wars were expected by the regimes in power in Russia. Dissent inside Russia and protests led to the abdication of Czar Nicholas in March 2017, and Bolsheviks led by Lenin seizing power in November of 2017. By 1979 Ukrainian leader Leonid Brezhnev was leader of the Soviet Union as Russia's economy could not keep up with modernization. Seeking spheres of influence Brezhnev pushed into a long war in Afghanistan in the mistaken idea that a quick strike on Kabul with a change in government would achieve Soviet goals in central Asia. By 1989 the Russian army withdrew from Afghanistan and in 1990 the protests led to the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union and emergence of Russia as a separate country. Landers and Gale of the WSJ see these events in Russian history showing how wars have led to domestic changes and upheavals in Russia when leaders projected power beyond Russia's capacity to handle the results of conflict. Russia's economy is about the size of Italy or Britain say experts and its industry much smaller than the European Union economies and the US, Japan combined.  ...

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This report in the WSJ looks at the war in Ukraine in July 2022 as seen from the Ukrainian side. Ukraine has 12 million people displaced or refugees, about a third of the population, particularly in the east. Most of the refugees are women and children. Cities in the east and the south face artillery attacks and airspace over Ukraine lacks the air defense systems that would help Ukrainians live lives not constantly under threat of bombs going off. In this situation and with the massive damage, there is also a breakdown of trust on both sides. Not just the leadership but 93% of the population is against negotiating a peace till the territories lost in the south and the east are regained, says this WSJ report. This report shows Zelensky describing his typical day, his yearning for peace, but serious fears after the failure of the 2014 peace agreements with Russia that Russia is simply negotiating agreements so that it can consolidate its control over territory till it launches another attack. This means that the war will go into a counter offensive phase in the south where Ukraine has its economic links on the Black Sea around the port of Odessa. Ukraine will want to recover the territories in the south so that its future on the Black Sea is restored to what it was before. The eastern part of Ukraine in the Donbas region is being integrated into Russia and Ukraine may seek to improve its position in that area around major cities that it controls and controlled till losses in June.  The lack of air defense systems over Ukrainian airspace that would protect civilians and people of Ukraine in the countryside and cities is what hurts Ukrainians the most. It is the reason why there are so many refugees and displaced people. The US and European countries have failed to provide the air defense systems that would have protected the civilian population and created the worst aspects of this war in the number of refugees having to flee their homes and seeing them destroyed. Years from now people may look back and say this is the worst aspect of this war apart from the claims of either side. As Lincoln said during the civil war in the US in his annual message of 1862 the land is there for ever, and this generation will pass away. The conflicts and tearing apart that this generation of Russians and Ukrainians have experienced, may not be the feelings of future generations.  ...

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The WP's Adam Taylor gives readers glimpses of Ukraine's and Crimea's history. The Crimea was at various times part of the Greek and Roman Empires as Taurica, the Mongols, the Khanate since 1400, and part of the Russian Empire since 1783. About 60% of the population is Russian in the Crimea, 12% Tartars. Under the Soviet Union it was first the Crimean Autonomous Socialist Republic till 1945 and then Crimean Oblast, an administrative region of Russia. It was made part of Ukraine by Russian premier Krushchev in 1954, Krushchev himself being a Russian who came up through the Ukrainian Communist party. In Dec. 1991 a referendum was held in Ukraine, 54% of Crimean voters favored independence from Russia. Crimea remained part of Ukraine with autonomy including its own constitution, and legislature. A 1997 treaty allowed Russia to base its Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol, Crimea.

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Technology is reshaping the world of oil by 2018. The U.S. Permian Basin stretching from West Texas to New Mexico now produces more oil than the UAE and is likely to soon surpass Iran- production is at 3.1 million barrels a a day. There are as many rigs as in 2011 yet the production has tripled because of the use of high tech rigs that can move quickly to new locations over wide areas and with tech that can see hundreds of feet into the rock. By 2019 the U.S. will surpass Russia as the world's largest producer of oil. The drop in oil prices to about $40 a barrel in recent years is a result of Saudi efforts to block shale oil development by lowering prices. This has not worked. Initially some high cost producers exited the industry and the shale industry suffered. Over time the new technologies spurred by lower oil prices have led to the anticipated drop in cost. Shale oil can now be produced by core producers at $40 a barrel and still be profitable according to this WSJ report. All Middle Eastern countries cannot meet budget needs at $40 a barrel. In 2018 oil prices increased back up to $77 a barrel. In the next wave of declining prices the shale industry is better positioned than the OPEC countries.   ...

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A new report on American driving habits by Samantha Gross and Aaron Brady of Cambridge Energy Associates shows that finally the gasoline price increases are beginning to bite the consumer and American drivers are changing their habits. After increasing from about2.5 trillion miles of total vehicle miles travelled by Americans in 1998 to about 3.0 trillion miles in 2007 the last 6 months are showing a downward trend for the first time. In the late 1970's and early 1980's something similar happened with a deep recession, rising gasoline prices and improved fuel efficiency standards, during this period gasoline consumption declined by 12 % accordingt o CEA. What is different now? For one thing the environmental issues are a big factor now and they take a new meaning as developing countries like India China Brazil and Rusia as well as other countries with much larger numbers of people than the US and Europe are now part of the car buying and electricity using peoples of the world. Its impossible both for the environment and for resource supplies to meet the needs of billions of new people joining the global economy and western ways of living without doing something radically different. And he problem is immediate as China becomes the second largest car buying country and India is not far behind with an explosion in Nano sales expected in the next few years, and the huge demands on electricity in these countries meaning burning huge amounts of coal to generate this electricity and create global environmental problems. All this makes the 70's and early eighties period remotely relevant. We are looking at something hugely different and 21st century defining now as its clear fuel has to be conserved and resources shared between the western world and the developing world, and technology moved forward quickly to meet the needs of a new world of Asia, Africa, Europe and the Americas all bundled into one both by the global ecoomy and the way business operates and by the needs of people everywhere. And the media and public perceptions may be just catching up to these changes which are already taking place on the lands and under the feet of millions of people around the world. Some clues to what might have happened. Americans spent 4.5% of their after tax income on transportation fuels in 1981 according to Global Insight, a forecasting firm, and this went down to 1.9% in 1998, and is back up to 4% now in 2008. In California and more affluent areas of the country where the incomes are higher and gasoline prices are higher over 4% is spent on transportation fuels, whereas in areas of Alabama and Mississippi in the poorest areas where gasoline is less expensive this is over 16% according to the New York Times interactive graphic. During this period 1998 to 2008 demand increased for gasoline, in terms of the number of miles driven went up by 25% from 2.5 trillion miles driven to 3.0 trillion miles driven, and the sales of large pickup trucks and SUV's soared to make them the largest number of vehicles sold each year. At 1.9% of after tax income nationally, transportation fuels were cheap and consumers reacted rationally by splurging on gasoline in the USA. As a sobering note to all this sign of improvement in conservation of fuel the miles driven are still at about 3.0 trillion miles the high reached last year 2007. It will take a lag of a couple of years before a changing fleet to smaller vehicles and more fuel efficient vehicles and better driving habits and conserving fuel habits to make itself felt in transportation fuel usage across the USA and this requires prices at least at these levels to make the change seen as necessary to meet global needs and global environment....

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Bret Stephens of the WSJ describes the problems with the deal for removal of chemical weapons in Syria, and sees parallels in the situation with the Iran nuclear deal for inspecting weapons sites.

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During 2012 and 2013 the U.S. put pressure on China and India to cut oil imports from Iran to increase the effectiveness of sanctions. As negotiations eased the sanctions, China increased oil imports in 2014 by 30% in 2014 over the prior year. China's Foreign Ministry sees a "win-win spirit" in the nuclear deal that opens up economic relations with Iran. Analysts say China has setup three new storage facilities on its eastern coast with about 45 million barrels of new capacity, which could be filled with new supplies as its growth slows and demand decreases. China's imports were about 7 million barrels a day in June 2015.