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Price rise of 3.7% in Japan and central bank plans to increase rates further in 2023.

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Huruhiko Kuroda, the new Governor of the Bank of Japan, Japan's central bank, told parliament in confirmation hearings: "If I am confirmed as governor, I will clearly communicate to markets that I am prepared to do whatever it takes to beat deflation... The Japanese economy has suffered from deflation, for over 10, almost 15 years, which is a global anomaly of the most extreme. As prices have fallen, corporate profits and wages have shrunk, depressing consumption and investment and triggering even lower prices in a vicious cycle." Kuroda also emphasized that the weakening of the yen was a side effect not the goal itself- "There is evidence that currencies tend to fall for countries that ease monetary policy on a large scale, but the BOJ's policy is not targeting currencies... The important thing is to ensure price stability and achieve the 2 percent price stability goal, although it could affect currencies in that process."

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Japan's new LDP government led by Shinzo Abe approved a stimulus plan of 10.3 trillion yen ($115.7 billion) in Jan 2013. This comes as Japan's current account deficit increased for November to $2.5 billion before seasonal adjustment, reflecting a decline in exports. The Abe administration says this will increase GDP by 2 percentage points from the current forecast of 1.7%.

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Stock markets have declined about 1% during the current banking crisis. This shows that the action taken by president Biden quickly taking over Silicon Valley Bank and closing Republic Bank is working. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and the central banks of US, EU, Swiss, worked together to take immediate action. Swiss central bank and the government stepped in to arrange the backing for UBS to takeover Credit Suisse bank.  The crisis affected market sectors in differing ways. Information technology stocks were up 5.7%, energy stocks went down by 7%, bank stocks declined 6%, sensitive materials sector stocks went down by 3.5%. Risks remaining are that the loss of confidence in regional banks could affect lending. The Fed's policy of containing inflation by raising interest  rates could continue say experts leading to information tech stocks losing any gains. Any drop in the price of oil could help the economies of the US and EU, India, Japan and China. By March 15 prices of US crude had dropped for West Texas Intermediate benchmark to $67. Any drop of prices to the $60 level increases growth in the EU, US, China, India and Japan, reducing chances of a recession. ...

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A 5% wage hike in Japan in 2023 for workers was the largest in 33 years. The central bank of Japan now supports a 5% wage hike in 2024 that unions are negotiating.

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Japan's central bank, the Bank of Japan, is under pressure from the government to do more to address deflation and the appreciation of the yen. The central bank increased purchase of government bonds to 10 trillion yen ($124.7 billion) in February 2012, and set a goal of 1% inflation. A senior cabinet ofice official attending the central bank policy meetings of April 9-10, stated that the government expects the Bank of Japan to "promptly" achieve the inflation rate of 1%.

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U.S. president Trump's statement calling for a list of goods for tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods leaves China without a clear response and facing new risks. The U.S. exports about $150 billion in goods to China so that China would have to impose penalties to respond at the same level. Placing restrictions on American firms on access to China's market, and imposing other penalties would have the effect of reinforcing the perception of unfair practices targeting American business and lead to hardening of U.S. response.  The U.S. sees itself as being in a better position with the U.S. economy experiencing a growth trend. China with large local government and bank debt faces a difficult situation. President Jinping's policy of reducing the risks of bad debt in the banking system involved sacrificing some growth to stabilize the system. China's GDP growth in 2017 was 6.9%, the target at 6.5%. Future targets and actual growth now look to be much lower.The trade war with the U.S. has the effect of dampening growth leading to calls for the central bank to loosen its monetary stance. In response to Trump's announcement the People's Bank of China pumped $31 billion into the nation's banks. China is studying Japan's response in the 1980's and 1990's when the U.S. took strong action against Japan's growing trade surplus. Japan responded by appreciating its currency and using stimulus to cushion the effect of lower exports on the economy. The stimulus led to the housing bubble and over time a period of low growth and stagnant economy. The large China stimulus in 2008-2009 has compounded the problems in the banking system. Not deleveraging and controlling financial risks in China's banking system because of the trade war would bring a new set of risks. ...

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The yen is at 134 to the dollar in June 2022 having dropped by 22% in 2022. The US Fed is increasing rates while the Bank of Japan is keeping its low interest rate policy. Japan's inflation is at 2.5% compared to 8.6% in April 2022 for the US. The last time the central bank intervened to buy dollar was in 1998 with severe yen overvaluation which is not the case now. The yen's weakening means the parts Japan imports from its supply chain in Asia now cost much more.

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Japan's central bank chief, Shirakawa, has come under criticism from both the governing Democratic Party of Japan and the LDP for not acting strongly enough to support Japan's economic growth in 2012. He diluted efforts of setting a 1% inflation target by showing a lack of determination, saying the Bank of Japan could only do so much to tackle deflation, with effort to tackle structural inefficiencies required from the government. The impact of this was to strengthen the yen which weakens Japanese exporters. The LDP candidate for prime minister, Shinzo Abe, in Dec. 2012 general elections, was particularly critical of Shirakawa. Abe is likely to appoint Takatoshi Ito, a Tokyo University economist as the new central bank chief. Ito says Shirakawa talked down each BOJ monetary easing move with cautious language, describing it as a cold shower following each move. This is very different from the talk of the U.S. central bank chief Ben Bernanke, who gave clear signals to financial markets in his statements following monetary easing efforts of QE 1-3. Abe prefers a 2% inflation target and an activist central bank policy comparable to the U.S. Federal Reserve under Ben Bernanke. Financial markets and exchange rates for yen have responded positively to Abe's policy goals....

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Under the coordinated action by central banks in the U.S., Canada, Japan, Switzerland and the ECB, the U.S. Federal Reserve lends dollars to the ECB, getting euros in return, and the ECB in turn provides European banks with the U.S. dollars. The European banks were facing a shortage of U.S. dollars in November 2011. Money market funds in the U.S. had pulled back from investing in eurozone bonds in the third quarter of 2011, adding to the shortage of dollars. This action eases liquidity concerns.

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The U.S. Federal Reserve's role as backup lender increased with the pandemic. The U.S. central bank lent half a trillion dollars to counterparts overseas representing most of the emergency lending at the time in 2020. It eased a dollar shortage globally, helped stop a market selloff, and continues to support global markets in 2020. The Fed is now the global source of dollar funding, which builds the role of the U.S. currency a the dominant currency. Countries that benefit from the Fed are Australia, Singapore, South Korea, Britain, Japan and European Union countries. On March 31 the Fed launched a program that let 170 central banks around the world borrow dollars against their holdings of U.S. Treasurys adding confidence.  To understand the dollar's dominant role about 88% of 6.6 trillion dollars in currency trades taking place daily involve dollars according to BIS. By end of 2019 U.S. dollar denominated debt securities and cross border loans reached about $27 trillion up from about $17 trillion in 2010. All the talk of having another reserve currency by other central banks has not happened. ...

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The U.S. central bank, Federal Reserve, is grappling with the problem of low inflation. Inflation reached around 2% by December 2018 but has slowed to 1.5% in the second quarter of 2019. The cuts in interest rates to keep the U.S. and European stock markets from declining sharply and affecting business confidence and investment were part of the response from central banks following the blunders by banks in the years preceding 2008. This has hurt savers and savings accounts of ordinary Americans over a decade with rates as low as below 1%, creating a sense of inequity/fairness. Now the Federal Reserve is back to reducing rates by a quarter point from its current level of between 2.25 and 2.5%. Rates rose for a while as confidence returned to markets to the current level. The reason for reversing the increases and a cut in rates is that the U.S. central bank sees the need to set rates looking at the rates in Europe and other countries where the economic conditions and confidence is lacking and rates are kept lower than in the U.S. The Federal Reserve sees it as unhealthy to let the gap between the U.S. and rates in Japan and Europe to grow too large because of the global interlinkages. Earlier models of the tradeoff between unemployment and inflation are also seen as unreliable in today's conditions of irresponsible behaviour in banking and other sectors, and unfair trade advantages gained by nations in Asia that are now leading to trade wars. ...

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The US central bank the Fed's Powell leaves interest rates unchanged July 30, 2025- as he waits to see what happens with inflation following tariffs action by DJT to level playing field with EU, Japan, China. A tariff of 15% is set in US Trade Agreements with Japan, EU and South Korea. Powell says the impact on US consumers will be minimal but not zero, with some effects expected even though EU, Japan and South Korea will not attempt to pass through the tariffs and risk the other benefits of trade access to the US market.

Overall both the European Union and the US have a good economy, with inflation at 2% and the the unemployment situation the best it has been in some decades near 6% in EU and near 4% in the US. 

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Haruhiko Kuroda, 68 years old, a senior finance ministry expert who ran the ministry's currency policy as vice finance minister for 4 years in the early 2000's, is prime minister Abe's nominee for central bank chief. He lectured at Hitoshibashi University for two years before becoming the head of the Asian Development Bank. His book "Success and Failure in Fiscal and Monetary Policy," is critical of the Bank of Japan for mistakes in being first too accomodative in monetary policy to set up the 1987 crash, and then tightening too quickly leading to the deflation and recessions of the last two decades. By choosing an expert with a long experience in the field of monetary policy and a vigorous advocate of getting things right to shake off the deflationary trends, Abe is sending a strong signal to financial markets. Kuroda says he is looking at a shorter time frame to achieve a 2% target for inflation- about two years. In essence Kuroda is taking a page from the policy book of a small group of MIT trained economists, Bernanke at the U.S. Federal Reserve, Draghi at the European Central Bank, and Mervyn King at the Bank of England to boost domestic economies in the context of increasing global growth. The yen weakened to 94.77 to the dollar on Feb 25, 2013, after the announcement. Abe's nominee for one of two deputy governor appointments is Kikuo Iwata, a 70 year old economist who was also critical of Bank of Japan monetary policy since the 1990's. The Abe administration has also carefully communicated this message. Speaking at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C. Abe said Japan's goal was to increase exports, but at the same time it will increase imports which should benefit the U.S., China, India and other countries. He described a recovery in Middle America from the Dakotas to the Carolinas and sees something like this happening also in Japan. Even the appeals to nationalist sentiment are also coupled with the message to China and S. Korea of not climbing up the escalation ladder and seeking good relations to promote mutually beneficial development. Abe's focus is on building the U.S.- Japan relationship....

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Coordinated action by the central banks of the U.S., Canada, Switzerland, the EU, and Japan to ease liquidity problems, as Italy's borrowing rates edged up to 8%, and other EU countries faced similiar problems in November, 2011.

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Japan's new LDP prime minister, Shinzo Abe, supports targeting the yen at around 90 yen to the dollar to support Japanese exporters. He sees this happening through monetary easing by Japan's central bank. At a rate of 85 yen to the dollar or above Japanese exporters would be in a position to become profitable and pay taxes. Abe says central banks around the world, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, are printing money to support their economies and increase exports. Switzerland and S. Korea pursued policies to keep their currencies from becoming too strong to support their exporters. China has managed its exchange rate to maintain export competitiveness. Exchange rate intervention has not been effective for Japan, and the focus now is on monetary policy and setting a 2% inflation rate target.

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The US dollar is rapidly appreciating against currencies such as the Indian rupee, the Japanese yen, the euro and the pound. The aggressive interest rate policy in the US and investor sense that the US central bank will take action against inflation is one reason the US dollar is stronger and will continue to strengthen in coming years. The weakness of emerging market currencies, the Bank of Japan's policy to continue keeping interest rates low, and the stronger US economy vs the European economy as Europe struggles with a war and cutoff of energy supplies from Russia, are other reasons for a stronger dollar in 2023 and beyond.

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Approaching euro dollar parity and the weakening currencies in Japan and Britain is the subject of this editorial in the WSJ. The ECB is focused on preventing divergence in bond rates of Germany and Italy more than it is in fighting inflation. The Fed in the US is increasing rates aggressively to curb inflation. This divergence in policies of central banks is making the dollar stronger.

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It comes as a shock to central banks and is pressuring governments- the food price explosion that won't go away even as energy prices are moderating. OECD graphs in this WSJ report show food prices up in 2023 over the prior year by 15-20% in France, Germany and Britain, compared to 5-10% in the US, Canada and Japan. In France households have cut food purchases by 10%, and in Germany by 10.4% over prior year in the largest drop since records were being kept in 1994. In Britain the statistics agency shows that 40% of the poorest 20% of people are cutting back on food purchases. Ludovic Subran who worked at the UN World Food Program says it is an "access problem." Food production has not dropped, people just can't afford to pay the prices. In Britain The Resolution Foundation says higher food prices since 2020 means the British public by summer 2023 will have to pay more in food bills $35 billion more than the 25 billion pounds for energy bills. Policymakers call higher profit margins by retailers as a possible cause as in world commodity markets food prices are falling since April 2022. Andrew Baileyof the Bank of England says it is the "fourth shock to inflation" after the supply chain bottlenecks, the energy price increases from the war in Ukraine, the tight labor markets. In Italy, Spain and Portugal governments have offered sale tax relief, in France and the UK government is leaning on retailers to curb price increases. ...

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Four million elderly women live alone in Japan. For some like For Chikako Tanaka in Aichi prefecture in central Japan who is 85 years old, social isolation is a real problem. She had no pension and lived on her savings till the savings ran out, with no one to visit her as her dementia progressed. Chikako was an unlikely person to go to prison for shoplifting because she dresses with care and looks different, yet this was the only way out of social isolation. In prison for the first time in years her 85th birthday was celebrated. 

Physiotherapists help women prisoners over 70 years with rehabilitation, walking skills and balancing exercizes. Prison services help women to integrate back into society when they return, with service centers in each neighborhood when they return.  

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The comparison of the British economy and the American economy with Japan, where debt constantly eats away at the economy, a long period of stagnation, is one possible outcome, says Buttonwood in the Economist. Central banks in both countries are allowing the banks to earn more money to replenish their capital, by letting them borrow short term at very low rates and invest the proceeds in higher yielding longer dated government bonds. Its acozy relationship where the banks are rescued by the government and they in turn finance the government by buying government bonds, but in the long run this means diverting lending from productive private sector projects and productive investment.

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China imports most of Iran's oil exports about 1.8 million barrels a day which flow through the Straits of Hormuz. Iran is heavily dependent on these exports for oil revenues that support it's economy. All Asian economies are heavily dependent on the oil flowing from Saudis, UAE and Iran through the Straits.  For Iran it would mean the loss of oil revenues needed to support its economy if the Straits are shut down. Iran's central bank says it get $67 billion from oil exports 90% of it going to China alone.  82% of oil imports of Asian countries  from Saudi, UAE, Qatar and Iran sources go though the Straits.  The US is not dependent on the Straits- less than 10% of its oil. Also true of Germany. The US  would have to use air strikes to prevent any mining of the waters seaway, and China, US, Japan, India would join in combined effort to keep all sea navigation open for international shipping.  ...