LyrArc Article Gist
Sweden's Foreign Minister Maria Stengard says Swedish analysis Russia's economy is much weaker than official estimates show. She says one should not underestimate Russia, as well as not make the mistake of overestimating Russia. It shows Russian central bank interest rates set at 21% in 2024 when interest rates were 10%, suggesting that inflation was much higher than the 5% official figures. The minister also points out that instead of growing by 13% as official figures reported Russian economy had declined by 8% over 2020 to 2024. British government estimate is that the losses from the Ukraine war are $450 billion. Official growth estimate for 2026 is 0.4%, even with higher oil prices. About 1.2 million men were lost in the war in Ukraine, and this affects Russia's productive part of the economy.  A new package of $106 billion has been approved for Ukraine by the European Union. EU stands with Ukraine. Stengard says Russian elites are in favor of ending the war before it does serious irreversible damage to the economy. This is also shown in the article on Russian economic conditions in the NYT today by Russia's Mikhail Zygar with Putin about to make changes and end the war in January 2024 to reverse the downward course in the economy after over 3 years of war since Feb 24, 2022. Not much is changing on the battlefield as both sides are at an impasse. So that continuing the war makes little sense for the two countries and a pullback, geting to a peace agreement, open minded negotiations, makes real sense. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Starmer says he will stay on as PM encouraged by smaller losses in the London region after losing Wales and Scotland. Reform got 26% of the vote for 30% of the local councils seats for local government in Britain, Conservatives at 20% and Greens at 16%. SNP was leading in Scotland and Plaid Cymru in Wales, leading to a fragmented result for parties across the country.

LyrArc Article Gist
Questions China faces on AI- 17% high youth unemployment and 200 million young people in the gig economy in low wage demanding work. Chinese Communist party wants to see a stable China that can pursue industrial progress for decades like the European Union and the US. For this reason it is not going to let this level of dissatisfaction with high youth unemployment and low wage demanding work for young people to go to the next level. For this reason it will carefully make investments in AI -not the hyper investments in AI that are taking place in the US. The competition with China is going to take place on many fronts, and the industrial bloc created by the EU with India and Nordics has a 15 year plan during which it and the US are likely to far exceed anything China does at a slower rate of growth. As in the US choices will have to be made in China, investment in one area means disinvestment in other areas that have equal or more priority. Today's capital markets are in complete dysfunction in the US operated by a few banks and tech company leaders, similar to the situation prevailing in pharmaceuticals and healthcare. Investment priorities and planning are needed. It is a major error to say US cannot plan that capitalism does not have planning, because it is absolutely true that planning goes on at every level in American companies with Xerox, IBM, Oil Companies and other large companies, all having a Long Range Plan as well as planning for individual projects and investments in plants. If a good infrastructure plan, project by project, state by state, and at the local level, is not put in place this will simply not take place. If no good reindustrialization plan, project by project, state by state, and at the local level, is not put in place, this will simply not take place. In that case the competition with China would surely be lost before it had begun. Yet that is surely not the case, as every good American company has a long term plan. And this plan looks at all the potential investments the Nation can and should make in priorities and in the interests of the Nation and the People. All have to compete for resources and AI surely would not get the lions share of resources in China, or in the US, in a fair and well run market system where planning rightly takes place, because it would displace the very basic structure of a fair and well balanced economy that serves the American people, or the people of European Union and India, or the people of China. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
WSJ's Monica Langley provides an exceptional report with a close look at the first woman CEO at a large corporation in the cusp of great change. IBM CEO Ginni Rometty is remaking IBM by moving out of existing businesses and shifting to new growth areas such as analytics, cloud computing, new R&D advances. She sees her job as building the IBM of the future, and this includes divestments and phasing out of some businesses, acquisitions, and building some businesses such as the Watson Heath Care business from scratch. In some fast growing areas such as cloud computing this means competing with other established competitors, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. Rometty's job is tough because of the size of IBM with 380,000 people in 170 countries, a culture that lacks the agilityof younger companies, and the older businesses which continue to slow IBM's progress, and where divestments reduce revenues. IBM sales are down for 12 consecutive quarters from the year earlier quarter. IBM's share price is down about 10% since Rometty became CEO in Jan. 2012, resulting in investor dissatisfaction with results. Rometty's goal is for 40% of IBM's revenues to come from corporate markets in analytics, cloud computing, cybersecurity, social networking, and mobile technologies, increasing it from 27% of about $93 billion in sales in 2014, and 15% of $105 billion in sales in 2013. Sold off and divested are low end servers, IBM's chip maker, and other hardware businesses. It is so extensive that whats left of the mainframe business is focussed on new technologies for mobile. Rometty setup a partnership with Apple for the corporate mobile market, and started Watson Health as a new venture in analytics for healthcare using its Watson Computer technology. Rometty grew up in Chicago, one of 3 daughters raised by a single mom, who says she was taught to be "fearless" by her mother. She graduated from Northwestern University with majors in electrical engineering and computer science, joining IBM as a systems engineer in 1981. She carries a backpack, school size notebooks, on her frequent trips to see customers in person and is constantly prodding employees at IBM to go faster. Rometty has a passion for scuba diving in her spare time and always carries the gear with her. Christine Lagarde at the IMF is one of the few women heading large organizations that have the same level of energy. Lagarde's passion is swimming having competed in sychronized swimming, and both Rometty and Lagarde describe the loss of a parent in different ways as a significant impact in their life. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Vindu Goel of the NYT gives this report on IBM's expansion in India including an interview with Vanitha Narayanan, chairman of IBM India. In 2017 IBM had 130,000 employees in India, at operations in Pune, Calcutta, Chennai and Bangalore and other cities, double that in 2007. The U.S. operations have about 100,000 employees. As IBM's revenues have declined with technology disruptions, it has concentrated on expansion in India with its vast base of knowledge workers and costs of about one half to one fifth of what it would cost in the U.S. IBM has 380,000 employees worldwide, with 26% in the U.S. and 34% in India, and 40% in other countries. Microsoft employs 8000 employees in India and 124,000 total worldwide, Google has 1800 in India and 72,000 worldwide.  IBM removed operations in India in 1978 after a dispute with the Indian government. In 1993 it started operations in India in a joint venture with Tata. By 2004 the operations had expanded and IBM took full control. A $750 million 10 year contract was signed in 2004 with an Indian phone company Bharti Airtel. As Goel points out the shift is happening towards expansion in India with the growing demand from industry and government in India. The Watson venture has expanded in healthcare in India with contracts including one with Maniphal Hospitals. In 2016 this had reached $38 billion in hardware and software, services, to Indian industry and the government agencies. IBM's work is not simply in offsourced work from American companies. High tech and cutting edge research is also taking place and expanding. IBM is now uniquely positioned to get an expanding share of the business as more tech services are provided to the hundreds of millions of people in India who did not have access to tech and tech services before. Research concentrates on doing this at a fraction of the cost and in new ways suited to the local region, so that services can be delivered with a wider reach. This report provides a new perspective on how the next decade could see American companies with a long term focus take advantage of the rapid growth in the fastest growing large economy in the world, with advantages for both the U.S. and India. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
IBM performance may be affected by the shift to the cloud computing environment. Businesses increasingly prefer to rent computing capabilities and software in smaller packages and easier implementation than the costly software packages IBM sells. IBM shares declined by 8% on April 19, 2013 after revenues declined by 5% in 1st quarter 2013.

LyrArc Article Gist
China's Delete America campaign as China seeks to direct business to its Chinese tech companies in an effort for self-reliance, is leading to decline in revenues for American companies. IBM revenues are down 20% this year. IBM will close its China R&D operations and some of the 1000 of these employees may be hired by Chinese tech companies. IBM will increase R&D operations in India. A gradual shift is taking place towards India, the only advanced large industrial base country in Asia with potential for growth.

LyrArc Article Gist
Winkler compares H-P's poor record of acquisitions including the Compaq and Autonomy acquisitions, with the better record at IBM.

LyrArc Article Gist
IBM's Watson Computer business has set a target of $1 billion in sales by 2018 and $10 billion by 2024. Current sales are in the $100 million range. Manoj Saxena is the head of the Watson business unit. The Watson ranks medical treatments by "confidence scores" and incorporates learning from errors. The way Watson works is for IBM engineers to study the technical details of a customers business and store this information for the computer to use. Uses so far are insurer WellPoint using it for determining if doctor's treatments meet company guidelines and a patient's insurance policy. M.D. Anderson Cancer Center is developing a version that recommends leukemia treatments for patients by data mining medical literature. Watson was moved to commercial phase in 2011 after beating 2 Jeopardy champions. IBM has a $15 million deal, its largest so far, with M.D. Anderson. It has taken frequent interaction between developers and IBM engineers to develop a version that recommends cancer treatments. The versions are only as good as how well knowledge in the field is translated into usable software, a long and difficult process. Applications in health care are seen as the best prospects for revenue generation. Google with its data mining capabilities is seen as the closest competitor....

LyrArc Article Gist
One sees the "quintessential IBM-er", close confidant of Sam Palmisano, and the involvement with Ms Chiesi, where insider information is excahnged over dinners. Questions arise about the ethics prevailing at the country's supposedly high standard maintaining firms such as IBM and McKinsey where another high ranking executive Anil Kumar faces similiar charges. Did these senior managers not ask themselves what was the right thing to do or was the dividing line between ethical and unethical simply blurred. Top ranking executives at Siemens were also found making decisions where they could not see the difference.

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. president elect Trump meets with the heads of tech businesses on Dec. 14, 2016. CEO's of Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft were present. Trump was exuberant about the advantages secured by U.S. tech companies in global business, saying- "there's nobody like you in the world. Anything that the government can do to help this go along, we're going to be there for you." The discussions covered need for more vocational education, advantages and disadvantages of trade with China, and immigration. Quarterly meetings of this type are now planned with a smaller group organized by Jared Kushner to cover immigration and education.  Jeff Bezos of Amazon described the meeting as "very productive." Bezos says he told the group that the best way was to use innovation to create jobs outside of tech in agriculture, infrastructure, manufacturing elsewhere, to create large number of jobs. Ginni Rometty, CEO of IBM, and other executives are part of the Strategic and Policy Forum set up to provide business input to the president. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Atsuyoshi Koike of Japan's Rapidus co-developing with IBM new 2 nanometer chip for production in 2026, wafer by wafer in 15 days instead of in batches taking 50 days. Koike says he will charge a Shinkansen fee referring to the bullet trains in Japan. He sees the failure by Japan to join the US in co-producing chips as a mistake, ceding ground to Taiwan's TSMC and South Korea's Samsung. Japan's government supports Rapidus with $600 million in funding and anotehr $1.7 billion comes from Japanese companies Sony, NTT and others. By comparison TSMC will invest $56 billion to produce advanced chips in scale in 2026. Japan is step by step getting back into the chip business by making a joint effort with the US.