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 WSJ sees many hurdles for a regional peace from the Lebanon ceasefire of November 26, 2024. Past efforts have failed to stop rearming.

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Iran Proposal that asks $2 million per ship to be split with Oman for opening the Hormuz Straits- April 6 2026. China, Japan can pay this amount to get the 90% of the oil they need from Hormuz, which would go to reconstruction of war damage in Iran. India would shift some of its purchase of oil and gas to the US and so will Japan over 2027-2028. This would result in a shift away from the Persian Gulf dependence to renewable energy and to buying oil and gas from US+Venezuela as more reliable sources. European Union and Britain would also make this shift as shown in the adjoining article by Prof Geoffron of Universite Paris Dauphine in Le Monde. The proposal also requires US and Israel to commit to no future attack on Iran, and Israel to stop its attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon. The US and DJT call the new regime under a Speaker of the Iranian parliament, an elected president who had to respond to people sentiment in the election, and a grandson of Khomeini, one that is easier to talk with than the earlier regime. The problem remains nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles development that the US has as its sole objective which is what the war is about than Hormuz as the US and DJT say Hormuz is China and Japan's problem where for some strange reason these industrial powers import 90% of their oil from Hormuz and have done this after 40 years of disruptions, a mystery they can solve on their own. ...

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A Druze community on the Golan Heights split over the conflict with Lebanon and Hezbollah. Elders identify with Syria, young people identify with Israel after studying at Israeli universities. Attacks on a soccer field here led to retaliation by Israel.

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Khamanei as leader of post revolution Iran set up Iranian supported military organizations in neighboring countries such as in Lebanon (Hezbollah), in Iraq, and in Syria, in Yemen (Houthis), over two decades, but failed to make the gains that Asian nations in that period made by investing entirely every dollar in the homeland economy of Iran. By comparing with Asian nations such as South Korea/Japan/Taiwan/China and now India/Vietnam the entire region from Iran and Afghanistan, Pakistan, Persian Gulf, Egypt can be seen as having lost some vital decades of the early twenty first century, and the scale of the difference is nothing short of staggering.  China after suffering invasion from Britain and then Japan, after civil wars and the Korean War, after going through this for two centuries sought peaceful development in 1990-2025, working with Japan and Britain countries that caused so much suffering yet China sough rapprochement, patiently with humility, with incredible results.  Gandhi also sought rapprochement with Britain through the British Commonwealth and cherished institutions of parliament and science learned and gathered from Britain. This was woefully missing in West Asia. When considering the access to capital in fossil fuel sales, the region of West Asia around Egypt may be seen as having recorded the largest wasted capital in wars in world history in the period 1920 -2047 (with only 20 years left to 2047),  by which time India, China, Europe and the US will have shifted from fossil to solar nuclear and renewables and fossil will be no longer generating revenue flows. Very little time is left as development will be that much harder by 2047 without the capital and result being one of being left behind in this new world that is facing us all.  ...

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Gives information on Hezbollah, its political, military and construction arm. The influence of the Revolutionary Guards of Iran and financialand military supply and training help from Iran. Beyond this its place i through democratic elections in the Lebanese state. As Ali Nasr points out Shiites form 40% of the lebanon population. And Shiite revival throughout the middle east is the background for what is happening now in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon, all nations with a majority Shiite populations.

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Content Links 1. SYRIA'S ECONOMIC SITUATION AND ISOLATION. The economy is stagnating, oil revenues which supported inefficient industrial public sector, is expected to run sometime after 2008. " Apotential crisis is around the corner because of oil." -Nabil Sukkar, Damascus based economic consultant and former World Bank official. Bush Administration policies for withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon and criticism of Syria may have further isolated Syria a Sunni Muslim country an pushed it to cooperate with Iran and support the Shiite parties in Lebanon. 2. NATIONAL UNITY HIGHER AS OPPOSITION TO ASSAD GOVERNMENT SUPPORTS SYRIAN GOVERNMENT ON LEBANON CONFLICT. "Even the opposition now believes in national unity," stated by Syrian opposition Member of Parliament.

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The Muslim Brotherhood and the democracy movement activists in Egypt reject any connection to Iran, Hezbollah or Islamic movements in other parts of the Middle East.

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This WSJ editorial points to the damage done in the Middle East by president Obama's inaction in Syria, in human terms with chemical attacks by Assad, the hundreds of thousands of refugees, 100,000 dead, and the Sunnis from Syria who are fighting Iranians and Hezbollah in Iraq creating a new wave of violence in Iraq after years of U.S. effort.

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Content Links 1. THE MISSILE ASPECTS OF THE LEBANESE CONFLICT OF 2006. The missiles have a reach of 10-20 upto a 100 miles. Most of the missiles are portable and can be moved from place to place and stored in wooden crates that can be easily transported. And the missiles are stored deep inside Shiite villages and towns, where the Shiite parties run the local government and provide social services and medical services, so that the resistance is kind of embedded in these areas. Considering that Lebanon is 40% Shiite and the backkground of oil rich Shiite Iran and its economic support of the Shiites here this becomes a difficult problem for Israel as it involves a door to door search to prevent the missiles from being launched. A senior Israeli military official: "Its a big problem for us, the launchers pop up for only a few minutes before the rocket goes... We just can't get them all."

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Syria borders Turkey, Israel, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon, placing it in a pivotal geographical location. Because of this unique geography what happens in Syria affects Turkey because of the Kurdish minority in Syria, it affects Lebanon because of Syrian support to Hezbollah, it affects Jordan because of demands for democracy there, and it affects Israel because of the Golan Heights. Meantime the Syrian democracy protests continue with the military crackdown by the Assad government, which has ruled Syria since Hafez Assad, an air force commander, took power in 1970. After his death power was passed on to his son, as has happened much too frequently in the Middle East, resulting in the stifling of any movement for change and participation in government. An added complication is that Assad comes from the minority Alawite sect in a largely Sunni country.

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A leader of the Syrian moderate democratic opposition to the Assad regime calls for help from the Obama administration for the moderates and Free Syrian Army. The request for Manpads to counteract Assad's air attacks and the deteriorating situation around the city of Aleppo and in Northern Syrian areas controlled by the Free Syrian Army. The collaboration between the Hezbollah, Assad's forces, and the ISIS as each attempt to increase the areas under their control pushing out the Free Syrian Army and moderate forces fighting the Assad regime. Hillary Clinton comes out against the Obama administration's policies in August 2014, saying "don't do stupid stuff" basis of Obama policies is not the basis for a sound foreign policy. Obama comes out with a $500 million aid plan for the Free Syrian Army but the approach is vacillating and slow, leading to a rapidly deteriorating situation, and a complete breakdown of what was a period of hope called the Arab Spring.

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Estimates including one by Fimat, of $80 per barrel when the security premium for oil goes even higher after the Iran backed Hezbollah war with Israel in Lebanon. oil markets jittery.

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The protests for democracy continue in Syria in May 2011. On May 20 2011, 26 protesters are gunned down. The Assad government continues to crackdown on the protests. Friedman sees the events in Syria having wide reaching impact on the Middle East. He calls it a keystone nation because of relations with Iran, the Golan Heights, the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah, the long border with Turkey, the border with Iraq, and Hamas relations with Syria. Compared to Egypt the international community has been for the most part silent in its support for the democracy protests in Syria. Friedman also asks the question about rival sects in Syria and other Arab countries and what happens afterwards. Would a post Assad period lead to people from rival sects putting aside differences and working together to build and sustain a democratic government. He says there is uncertainty but also that something deep down is coming to the top in the Arab world- that Arabs want to be full citizens of their countries with a voice in their government and in the way things are run in their countries. ...

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The main thrust of the article is contained in 3 content links: first one is how the Resistance as the Hezbollah cals itself has made itself part of the social fabric, the second the peculiar set of events thaat led to this, the third about the peculiardemocratic representation system that was designed after the Lebanese civil war. Content Links 1. Hezbollah as part of the social fabric. Hezbollah legislators pushed through a $35 million drinking water faility, a waste disposal project of about $35 million and a $68 million road project in the Shiite dominant Bekaa Valley. See the reference to the organic farm and other economic and charitable projects in Solomon/Leggett WSJ 7-21-06, financed by Iran. 2. The Peculiar Set of Events that Led to Hezbollah integrating into the Lebanese social and political fabric. The Lebanese civil war began in 1975 and formally ended in 1989 with accord that reserved ccertain number of parliamentary seats and key positions for each sect or religious group. The Shiites had 27 and Sunnis 27, the Christians 64 and the Muslims 64 in the 128 member Parliament after the 2005 elections. The President has to be a Maronite Chrisitian, the Prime Minister a Sunni Muslim, and the Speaker of Parliament a Shiite Muslim, according to the accord. The Shhites led by Hezbollah took the maximum number of seats available to Shiite Muslims during the election, 35 according to this article though 27 is shown under the earlier Solomon Democracy article. After the election which followed Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon, the Shiite parties joined the coalition government an took 2 ministries , energy and labor, and negotiated veto powers over any cabinet decisions. 3. The Lebanese Democratic System that emerged from the 1989 accord. This gave Maronite Christians, Sunni Muslims (for long time priviliged and better educated groups in Lebanon compared to the less well educated Shiites having higher rates of unemployment and illiteracy as well as less access to governace, ) a proportionally bigger say in the government. About 40% of Lebanon's population is Shiite, but their representation in the Parliament of 128 seats is a maximum of 35 seats, with the rest going to other Muslims and Christians. Ali Nasr refers to this in his key article for this group. In a Lebanon with a Shiite Revival this still leaves more progress in democratic representation for the Shiiites in the future. ...