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Patrick Buisson, a key Sarkozy adviser, who helped him win the presidential election in 2007, says Marie LePen's chances in the 2017 election are dimmer than people realize. Her Front National is popular in the north of France with working class people who formerly voted in favor of the Communist or Left parties. In the south of France in areas like Nice her niece Marion is popular with people who have social views on the right on abortion, and gay marraige. The problem is reconciling these 2 blocs of voters and the way Le Pen appears to have moderated her views on social issues. The opposing candidate from the Right parties formerly led by Sarkozy is Francois Fillon, actually prime minister for the full term of 5 years under Sarkozy. Fillon's views are closer to the FN voters in the south and opposes gay marraige and abortion, and has a strong foothold with Catholic voters in traditionally Catholic France. It is this split that hurts LePen who had hoped to run against Bordeaux mayor LeJuppe. The left parties are in disarray and likely not to be a factor. Another difference is that the voters in the south of FN do not see it the same way as FN voters in the north on issues of increasing the size of the state. Voters in southern France do not favor increasing the size of the state as Le Pen has promised and opposed by Fillon. Fillon has plans to cut France's large state employees by 600,000. France has a large state owned sector of companies and increasing the work week to 48 hours, reducing the state sector size to help private companies with incentives is seen as a way to increase productivity and grow the economy, plans supported by Fillon. A major problem for Marie LePen is her family name of Le Pen which Buisson says people in France associate with her father Jean LePen, and extremist positions. Buisson thinks Marie LePen will never be able to shake off this image in the second round of the election as she loses some of her right wing Catholic support to Fillon, and fails to attract enough working class voters in the north of France because of the family name. ...

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Alexander Van Der Bellen, a pro Europe independent candidate supported by the Green Party wins Austria's presidential election with 53.3% of the vote. The anti immigrant Freedom Party candidate Norbert Hofer wins 46% of the vote. Van Der Bellen is for an open Europe and is pro Europe. The election is seen in Germany as "lifting a great burden off of our shoulders," in the words of Sigmar Gabriel. This is important for the future of Europe as France, Netherlands and Germany face major elections in 2017.

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French parliamentary elections on June 11 and June 18 for 577 seats follow the May 7, 2017 presidential election. The Republican Party plans to contest all the seats, and its representatives say that its ideas are well accepted in France, that only the candidacy of Fillon was not successful. The Socialist Party also plans to contest the election. Analyst Krumbmuller of OpenCitiz consultancy says local connections matter, that the two mainstream parties have established local connections and should do better than candidates put up by Macron's En Marche movement. Macron has little time to prepare effectively for the parliamentary election, making it likely that in the end a cohabitation agreement between a prime minister from the Republican or Socialist parties and a president from outside these parties would take place. 

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Barbara Wesel of DW.com says 2017 will be a difficult year for the European Union. Elections will be held in the Netherlands, France, Germany, and possibly in Italy. The Netherlands election is coming up this month and the far right party led by Wilders is likely to gain as much as 25% of the vote but have to negotiate with other parties in a fractured parliament to form a government. Elections in France show Marie Le Pen winning the first round, with an uncertain result in the second round between Le Pen and Macron. A win by Le Pen could lead to the unwinding of the EU. In Germany another coalition government is expected with the SPD playing a larger role as it regains favor with the voters under the EU's Martin Schulz. Wesel says Germany and Merkel are looking like a beacon of stability and hope as the world looks for leadership with America looking inward to fix problems at home.

 

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The first round of France's parliamentary elections show president Macron's party, La Republique en Marche, winning 28% of the vote. The turnout was low, below 50%, below the turnout of 57% in 2012 and 60% in 2007. The Republican Party gained 22% and the National Front 13%. The Socialist Party lost heavily gaining only 7% of the vote.

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Walker of the WSJ describes how the new issues of immigration and identity are changing the way people vote in European Union countries. In the Dutch election there were other surprises. The Dutch Labor Party which won 25% of the vote in the 2012 elections fared badly and got only 6% of the vote. Much of this vote was picked up by antipopulist parties such as the Greens. Mr. Rutte, the prime minister under the current government, and his party centre right VVD won 21% of the vote. Social Democrats and Labor parties in Netherlands, France and Britain are doing badly, and even Martin Schulz's SPD's higher popularity is said to be reaching a peak and may not last till September, says Walker. Labor Party in Netherlands failed because of its participation as a junior party in a centre right government following austerity policies, say analysts. Overall as shown in Netherlands the tensions and loss of credibility of social democrats is playing out differently in each country. The Netherlands election shows that there is also an anti-populist shift that moves some of the vote from social democrats to parties such as Greens, or other parties or movements that have gained credibility as the social democrats faded.  ...

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Empowering people and civil society was the main goal of En Marche movement founded by Emmanuel Macron. As president Macron has governed in the presidential style of De Gaulle, creating dissatisfaction. Macron is criticized for centralizing power and decision making process so that the style of governing is in sharp contrast to the way En Marche draws on grass roots support. En Marche itself was critical of how the older politicians had governed France. The Interior Minister and Environment Minister resigned with the Environment Minister saying he felt "all alone" in government. This is happening as the European Union election is approaching with the poll numbers of Macron dropping to about 26%. Marie Le Pen's RN is ahead of Macron's En Marche for the first time in polls taken in November 2018 for the May 2019 European Union elections. The think tank Friends of Europe shows 41 percent of French respondents in a survey saying life would be the same without the EU, while only 21 percent thought it would be worse.    ...

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After the German election the next election in France in 2022 will provide new direction for Europe. As in Germany with Olaf Scolz of the Social Democrats, in France an alternative is emerging with Xavier Bertrand of the Les Republicains. Like Scholz Bertrand was Labor Minister working to tackle difficult problems of increasing employment in the French economy going back a decade. In recent elections the party French president Emmanuel Macron created as a member of Francois Hollande's government has floundered. Macron hastily put together the En Marche in Amiens on April 16, 2017, when he was minister of Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs in the government of president Hollande. During the eight year period in which the centre right Christian Democrats CDU and center left Social Democrats SPD had ruled in a coalition government in Germany some version of centrist politics and government had also prevailed in France. After the Sarkozy years 2007-2012 under the centre right Les Republicains party  France turning to the centre left Socialists under Francois Hollande. As a young minister 39 years Macron lacked experience, and the initial enthusiasm that helped him win the 2017 presidential election is now missing. As in Germany voters are looking for change not just in slogans but in substance in a new Trans Atlantic partnership of US, Germany and France to tackle the may problems that were neglected in the last two decades of changing administrations in US and France and the Merkel administration in Germany- problems of social cohesion, of income inequality, division of country into rural and urban, eastern and western in Germany, southern and northern in the US, neglect of infrastructure, and failure to invest in the future.  France is now turning to the Les Republicains party in recent elections, and away from Le Pen's far right party and Macron's party.  Both Macron and Le Pen did very poorly in recent regional elections. This report in FR24 points out that the candidate for the Les Republicains party will be chosen at a convention, and not at a primary as happened in 2017 leading to the elimination of former Republicains president Nicholas Sarkozy. The president of the Haute France regional council Xavier Bertrand is the leading candidate from the regional election results. Bertrand was Sarkozy's minister of Labor and Solidarity from 2007 to 2009, and Minister of Labor, Employment and Health in 2009. Today Olaf Scholz, winner of the German elections in September 2021 was also Minister of Labor- in the Social Democrats/ Greens government under Gerhard Schroeder 1998 to 2005. Voters now realize that it is important to value experience, stability, combined with humility and a determination to get things done, compared to charismatic leaders with little to show in results, and tangible improvements in the quality of life, in national renewal.      ...

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A news story about French president Francois Hollande saying he wanted to see tough negotiations sends the British pound plummeting on October 7, 2016. It fell to $1.18 before recovering to $1.24 to the dollar. Experts say algorithms overreacted to the news story about Hollande's remarks. Further declines are expected as Brexit negotiations happen in 2017 closer to elections in Germany and France, with issues such as movement within the EU likely to be obstacles. Other factors influencing the pound are the that the pound is no longer a safe haven following Brexit, and the uncertainties generated by the Brexit "yes" vote. This would mean higher prices in Britain's retail stores for imported products, costlier vacations overseas, and higher inflation. It could boost British exports with a devalued currency making them more competitive. 

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Imagine UK general elections July 4, France now set for June 30 July 7 for National Assembly, and the US on November 5. The French election is now set after EU elections showed a now unpopular Macron party losing badly to Marine Le Pen's National Rally party in EU elections. Macron created En Marche in 2017 as his way of renergizing French parties by bringing in younger people that contested and won 2 presidential elections. On economic issues of fairness for workers and dignity France is deeply divided as working class has suffered as in the US with some of the disaffected moving to Le Pen and some to Socialist parties led by Melenchon. Melenchon supporters helped Macron win in the last presidential elections even though his policies have veered to continue policies that did not favor the working class. Macron hopes to bring the Republican right party back into French politics for the Assembly election. France has a presidential system so the July 7 assembly election would give Macron a chance to appoint a prime minister from the Republican party of Nicholas Sarkozy. A similar situation exists in the UK after Conservatives failed and a big shift to Labor is seen for July 4th. ...

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A Flash Eurobarometer poll before French elections in 2017 show 56% of Europeans in the EU saying the euro is a good thing, only 36% saying its not, those saying its good at 64% in Germany, and being 57% in Spain, and 53% in France. Walker of the WSJ says the euro has survived the crises of the last few years, with some but not all the steps taken to avoid a repeat of the problems, and public opinion still favoring the eurozone as it looks forward to economic growth in coming years. The middle class is not attracted to risking its savings in euro denominated assets, costs of the turmoil that might be caused by leaving the euro act as a signal for caution, and in Southern Europe countries remember the days before the euro with devaluations and high inflation. With gradual economic recovery it appears that the euro is still the best option there is. Surveys show three fourths of the French oppose leaving the euro, and experts say the euro is not to blame for France's slow economic recovery- more confidence and political stability with economic renewal are seen as the ways to get France going again. This may be why the national elections in France will likely bring a president who is pro-EU. ...

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The Dutch parliament approves a free trade area with Ukraine. Netherlands was the last country to approve this agreement. Populists of eusoskeptic views won a referendum in April 2016 leading to the agreement passed by the other 27 countries of the EU being modified to accomodate the euroskeptics- who pushed the view of Ukraine as another corrupt country that Netherlands tax payers would have to support. The agreement for a free trade area for EU and Ukraine itself was a result of the popular sentiment in Kiev and western Ukraine in favor of closer ties to the European Union, that led to protests in 2013-2014 and the election of pro-EU Petroshenko as president. Russia opposed the move, leading to the support of a Russia rebel movement in the eastern part of Ukraine. The Dutch elections of 2017 led to Dutch voters supporting prime minister Rutte's effort to support the European Union in helping Ukraine with economic ties. This puts Netherlands back into the core EU nations such as France, Germany, Spain and Italy, that back Ukraine and oppose Russian moves. ...

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Veering between reckless intervention and doing nothing has led to some of the problems the US faces even today.  Barrack Obama created the hope for Arab Spring at Cairo University in 2009, which he failed to follow up on. Ronald Reagan and his Arab envoy Donald Rumsfeld, Defense minister Weinberger, supported a reckless intervention on the Iraq side against Iran in 1980 after winning the election following the capture of hostages in the American Embassy in Iran. Reagan was reckless in such intervention not understanding what was happening in a religious sectarian and Arab Socialist ideologies war in which US interests were not involved. Le Monde of France recounts how Barrack Obama hesitated to followup on his warnings in 2011 after the Arab Spring. This led to Obama doing nothing in the face of just what he had stated at Cairo University of people "having the ability of speaking their mind and having say in how they are governed," and US intention "we will support them everywhere." Another instance of no action was with a failed state situation and  millions of refugees in Venezuela after a Bolivarist Chavez ideological economic collapse similar in some ways to Arab ideologies Iraq and Syria. US did not follow the Monroe Doctrine on non intervention of foreign European powers on the American continents. Obama's speech and then inaction may be at the root of today's problems of migration and the divisions it has caused. Millions of Syrian refugees left for Greece, Hungary and Germany in 2015-2016. It was followed by Brexit again on migration. And in 2016 migration and the Border in the US election. And again in 2022 and 2024 the Border and migration the big issue in the US election. In a speech at Cairo University in 2009 during a visit to Egypt. Obama said: "I do have an unyielding belief that all people yearn for certain things: the ability to speak your mind and have a say in how you are governed; confidence in the rule of law and the equal administration of justice; government that is transparent and doesn't steal from the people; the freedom to live as you choose. These are not just American ideas; they are human rights. And that is why we will support them everywhere." On September 11, 2012 following the death of Libyan dictator Muammar Khadafi and the beginning of civil war in Libya, the Libyan mission in Benghazi was attacked with US ambassador Christopher Stevens killed just 2 months before the US presidential election.  Faced with use of chemical weapons Obama issued a warning to Syrian regime in Damascus- then following the Libyan experience did nothing. Le Monde cites an interview with president Hollande of France in 2015 who expressed his frustration with France willing to act.  Obama underestimated the ISIS in the region says Le Monde, leading to the situation by 2015 of the eastern part of the country linked to the region around Mosul going under ISIS. By 2016 the problem of ISIS was left to next US president DJT to tackle by Obama, a result of the inaction in 2012-2013 on Syria, says Le Monde. And like Angela Merkel in Germany on migration, Barrack Obama simply rationalized his action, with the US and the EU left to tackle the results of these actions.     ...

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Chancellor Merkel's now widely quoted words were made in Munich on May 27, 2017, after a NATO summit meeting in Brussels and a Group of 7 meeting in Italy, in which she was disconcerted by U.S. president Trump's positions on NATO, Russia, climate change, and trade. These words "the times in which we could rely fully on others - they are somewhat over." Merkel added "This is what I experienced in the last few days." After the election of Emmanuel Macron in France, Merkel expressed great relief at the outcome of the French election with Macron winning about two thirds of the vote, setting the stage for the election in Germany after several months of difficult watching and waiting. Now there is new confidence in Germany shaping its own future, with France and the rest of the European Union without Britain. Merkel says she "experienced this" meaning that she had undergone a transformation in these few months, and visibly in the last few days. She was also sending a message to Germans and people of the European Union - "we have to know that we must fight for our future on our own, for our destiny as Europeans." This also complements tactically to form the approach of Germany and France at the leadership of the EU, as French president Macron said at the end of the Group of 7 conference that multilateralism was intact, and the U.S. and EU shared many common goals.   ...

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Martin Caparros describes the deadlock in Spain with no two parties on the right Ciudadanos and Partido Popular, and on the left, Podemos and the Socialist party, able to have enough seats i parliament to form a government. An agreement between Ciudadanos and Partido Popular of prime minister Mariano Rajoy, has brought the 2 parties close to 170, 6 short of a majority in the 350 member parliament. New elections will have to be held for the third time in December 2016 as a result of this impasse. The two main parties in Spain the Partido Popular and the Socialist party, alternated in forming a government during the period since the restoration of democrati government after Franco's dictatorship. Following the deep recession in Spain since 2012 two new parties have been formed Podemos on the left, and Ciudadanos a centre right party. Both parties are critical of corruption, and the cuts in spending for education and healthcare following the financial crisis in Spain and bailouts by the European Union. Caparros describes the cynicism that voters express about not just the two main parties, but also for Podemos and Ciudadanos, as voters voice their rejection of politicians and parties on the left and the right. A similiar process is taking place in other countries, in Britain most recently with Brexit and the departure of prime minister Cameron. In the U.S. with the Sanders and Trump movements, and the Beppe Grillo movement in Italy.  ...

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Viktor Orban's defeat in the Hungarian election in April 2026 comes after decades of his blocking policies that emerged from the European Union in Brussels and is a relief for the European Union and Germany as it takes on the responsibility of leading continental Europe in its stance of opposition to Russia in the war in Ukraine with help of France and Britain. Peter Magyar who is staunchly pro European Union wins Hungary's 2026 election in a landslide with 137 seats to 57 with 77% of electorate voting as Viktor Orban concedes. Magyar's Tisza party gets 57% of the votes to 40% for Orban. Peter Magyar 45 years was part of the Orban Fidesz party before he formed his own party with dissatisfaction about the extent of corruption under Fidesz. Orban as head of the Fidesz was prime minister 1998-2002 then again in 2010 to 2026 for a period of 20 years spanning the first quarter of the 21st century. Magyar is not a progressive or so called liberal and shares many of the same views on social issues of Orban but he is pro-European Union and reflects the views of the Hungarian nation as independent in Eastern Europe and the Hungarian Revolution of 1956 in an uprising against Soviet rule. In the period before the two world wars from 1600 Hungary was the place where in addition to Austria and Vienna, the Hapsburgs and other European armies pushed back the Ottoman Empire's expansion into Europe. Hungary was a key part of the Hapsburg Empire which ruled from Vienna, Austria, over most of Eastern Europe for 1600-1918. The Hapsburg Empire collapsed in World War I on the side of the Germans and a new nation Hungary emerged by 1921 but was much smaller than Hungary of the Hapsburg era. Today Hungary is a nation of 10 million with its capital on the Budapest on the Danube river in the heart of Central Europe. ...

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This report in the Guardian says president Macron's party along with its small ally MoDem could win as many as three fourths of the 577 seats in parliament in the June 2017 election, or about 400-445 seats. The election showed a low turnout of 49%, with abstention highest among supporters of Marie Le Pen of the National Front on the extreme right and Le Melenchon on the extreme left.  A big loser is the Socialist Party which this report estimates losing about 200 seats. Les Republicains the other main party on the right is also a loser, as this report estimates it going from 199 seats to 70-130 seats. The National Front of Marie Le Pen could end up with one seat at worst or just below the threshold of 15 seats from 118 constituencies contested. This is because it faces competition from the right and the left parties for votes in every constitutency, and is kept out by the centre right and centre left coming together. Le Melenchon's France Unbowed is expected to win about 11-23 seats.  In this election young and working class voters stayed away, voters who supported the more extreme left and right wing parties. Chancellor Merkel called it "a vote for reforms." The big majority makes it possible for Macron to get laws to change the labor market to create more jobs, and to make changes to pension and unemployment benefits, so that France's economy can get moving again.  ...

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As Britain goes to general elections in May 2015, one of the issues in the election will be new referendum on membership in the European Union promised by prime minister David Cameron. Cameron has said he will negotiate a better deal for Britain in the EU and hold a referendum by 2017. The last referendum was in 1975, in which two thirds of voters supported membership in the EU. British disapproval of the EU has increased with immigration from newer EU members since the 2008 financial crisis, and increasing unemployment. Some recent polls show 42% voting to stay in the EU, and 39% opting out, suggesting a close vote. Negotiations for better terms mean treaty change, which would be opposed by France. Germany's Merkel also opposes changes on the immigration rules that do not allow free movement of labor. Other EU leaders see Cameron's moves on the EU being an effort to counter the UK Independence Party's push for EU exit, as the UKIP could draw Conservative right wing voters in the 2015 general election. ...

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Michel Sapin faces the challenge of convincing the EU and Germany that France should get more leeway for tax cuts and other measures to boost the economy and lower unemployment. He has been through difficult situations before when following approval of the Maastricht Treaty the French Franc came under speculative attacks by investors betting France could not implement the Treaty. At the time he was finance minister in the Mitterand government. As labor minister since 2012, Sapin implemented Hollande promises in the elections- for government sponsored jobs for young people, creating contracts to bind young and older workers in the workplace, and reform of professional training schemes.

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Elections to France's 13 regional councils is showing weak support for president Macron's En Marche party that was newly created by Macron. Macron's party won less than 10% of the vote in the regional elections. The Republicans, former president Sarkozy's party were written off after Macron's win. Instead the Republicans who are conservatives and represent the Gaullist tradition have revived under Sarkozy's health minister Xavier Bertrand. Mr. Bertrand now remains the main candidate with Macron for the French presidential election in 2022. Terrorist attacks, the sense of a lack of law and order, and the pandemic, have revived the conservatives in France. Brexit nationalism, the failure of the socialist Labor party and a shift of laborites in the north of England to the conservatives under Boris Johnson led to a Johnson win in British elections. A similar situation is unfolding in France. Xavier has served under presidents Chirac and Sarkozy, both in the Gaullist tradition. He was Sarkozy's spokesperson in 2007 and helped run Sarkozy's election campaign. He was Health Minister from 2010 to 2012. ...

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France's deficit is at 4.3% of GDP in 2014, exceeding the EU target of 3% and putting at risk France's committment to reach this by 2015. Unemployment is at 11% in early 2014. President Hollande appoints a new prime minister, Manuel Valls, to tackle the economy after losing local elections in France.

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A small group of advisers and Macon including Nicholas Sarkozy of the Les Republicains voted to have new elections. Les Republicains governed France under presidents De Gaulle and some of De Gaulle administration members Pompidou, Giscard and Sarkozy. Sarkozy was seen as aloof and was succeeded by the Socialist party's Francois Hollande. At that point in 2017 at the end of Hollande's term the Socialists failed to take up working class families issues, and it marked the beginning of the National Rally of Jean and Marine Le Pen gaining worker support. Macron was a minister in the Hollande government who detected an opportunity in the loss of support for both Sarkozy's Les Republicains and Hollande's Socialists. He set up his own movement for renewal of France saying France needed newer people than the old administrations and got an infusion of support from young people. Yet Macron lacked a specific program to get back the voter support of working class families as he implemented policy on climate without addressing concerns of cost of living leading to yellow vest protests. He was reelected im a close election with a challenge from National Rally 58% to 42% in second round after having only 5% point margin over Le Pen in first round, with help from the left vote. Macron spent the first two years of second term fighting the unions and labor over pension reform, when his measures failed to pass the Assembly he used executive action. As a result support in small towns and other parts of France has shifted to National Rally, with the immigration issue adding to support and young people frustrated by Macron not tackling key issues of working class people decided to shift to the National Rally and to Melenchon left party, and to Socialist parties. As Macron is closely allied with Les Republicains ideology he is looking for away to rebuild the LR and his EN Marche as an alternative in 2027 presidential elections. ...

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After the National Rally party of Le Pen wins 30% of the vote to Macron's En Marche 15% in EU elections, showing the unpopularity of Macron, Macron responds by calling for snap elections. Macron is taking an aggressive approach to stop NR party as so far  parliamentary elections in France  have led to voters on the left and right veering to the centre to avoid giving the far right National Rally of Le Pen a win. National Assembly elections also require getting 50% of the vote under different rules than EU elections.  Politico points out that the situation is different today as the NR is more in the mainstream of politics. Macron's hope is that the NR would increase its seat numbers from 88 but not as much, and that other parties such as the Republicains and the Socialist parties, the parties that governed France since 1945 would also make gains. He could then appoint a prime minister not from En Marche his party but from the Republicains party of Nicholas Sarkozy, French president (2007-2012), which supports Macron.  ...

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This editorial in Der Spiegel magazine sees something positive emerging from the current state of politics in Germany with the fragmentation in political parties. It says this situation is something that is happening for some time now. In the Netherlands there are a number of parties working together in a coalition government. And in France the Macron movement swept away the old parties. Something similar is also happening in Italy with the Five Star Movement as elections approach in March 2018. This may be a positive development in that the days of 100 percent convention votes, and of career politicians who move up the ranks from one political committee to another, are over. Voters are acting in individualistic way, don't trust the elites and old big tent parties with career politicians who may not be responsive to people's needs.  Young people are eager for more participation, and this may be a good thing, says Der Spiegel. It points out that not just parties like AfD are gaining as a result. SPD support dropped to 16 percent in one poll same as AfD. The Christian Lindner's Free Democrats in Germany also are benefitting,Macron in France is benefitting, Sebastian Kurz in Austria is benefitting. Their parties they prefer to call as "movements" with some marketing and political platforms that appeal to young people. Macron's movement moved aside the old political system and brought in younger people, revitalizing the decaying political system. The conclusion for Der Spiegel is that this change is not entirely good or bad, its a challenge. Our focus should not be on propping up obsolete structures, breathing new life into old political structures could be a good thing with new younger voters looking for participation. So don't be afraid of voters. ...

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Michael Barnier leads the negotiating team for the EU as it begins negotiations with Britain on Brexit. He is a former foreign minister of France and former EU commissioner, giving him the necessary skills and experience. Yet as he meets with the Affairs of the European Committee in the German parliament, even Barnier is not clear how the negotiations will be conducted. Only that the issues relating to disentangling the closely interwoven economies of the EU and Britain relate to nationals of the EU and Britain in each others region, the common 20,000 legally binding regulations, and the price tag for Britain to pay of 60 billion euros. The leading German in the negotiating team is Gunther Oettinger, a former EU budget commissioner, and he tells Der Spiegel that the bill may be even higher than that number. The figure will be arrived at by taking into account the obligations of Britain and applying this to assets. The obligations include the money owed to the EU budget, share of medium term budget planning to 2020, share of pension payments to EU civil servants. The British take a different view and do not understand why they have to pay this amount when they are exiting. The British want to see their future relationship on trade and access to the EU markets discussed early, but the EU position is just the opposite, first exit negotiations to be completed by September 2018, then other discussions on trade. March 29, 2019 is the date set for Britain to be no longer a member of the EU. Yet even the sequence of issues has not been set and the sides could not be further apart than they are now. Each side looking at its situation domestically with elections in the EU in 2017, and May facing the added challenge of Scotland threatening to leave the UK. ...