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Half of Americans under 30 years live with their parents because of the high cost of housing in 2026.

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In Smucker's failed acquisition of Hostess Twinkies for $5 billion business analysis but no mention of RFK Jr MAHA from WSJ. How on earth could Smucker's think that foods like Twinkies would be growing in size, because by 2020 the dangers of such junk food were already evident from the Nation's obesity problem. It isnt' the failure of distribution channels for Twinkies merged into Smucker's jams products slower distribution that is the problem (the 65 days shelf life for Twinkies). It is the Nation's gradual recognition of and awareness of how obesity happens and how it destroys people's health and well being. 

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French appellate court says 15 month sentence adequate and  letting Marie Le Pen run for president in 2026. The judges said that- "disregarding this would undermine the principle of freedom of candidacy, an essential condition for the democratic exercise of universal suffrage.” This happens as French elections show France divided between the urban areas such as Paris and major city centers from the rural areas and small towns across the country who favor Le Pen's party. The socialist parties have split with Melenchon leading his own party. Macron has failed to win support and is highly unpopular as president. This has led to failure to have a prime minister in office with a clear program. It also has created much uncertainty in French politics, similar to what is happening in Britain and also in Spain with Starmer out, and Pedro facing problems in Spain.

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In and Interview with The Times of London Andy Burnham said yesterday: “You have to rethink how we run things to get a different approach to public spending and running the economy which is much more focused on early investment, early intervention, setting people up for success and much less paying for failure." “A concept I will talk about tomorrow is a 10-year plan for the country. I think that’s what it needs. I’m not saying that means I’m setting out to say I’m going to be here for 10 years, it’s more that we’re not in the right place structurally. “You go round large parts of Britain and they’re in decline still. The path we’ve got to lay is quite a long one. It can’t be done overnight. You’ve got to show people where we’re going and the steps towards it.” At Lyrarc.com we have called for a 10 year Plan for the US, this is a right step for Britain.   ...

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US collapsed against Belgium. Brazil lost to Paraguay. Argentina trailed Egypt for most of the 90 minutes only to recover with 3 goals in the last 20 minutes and the winning goal in overtime. Messi almost in tears, moved by the near failure of Argentina till the last minutes of the game gave a miraculous reprieve. One by one the highly advertised on television in the US teams and stars, from US's Pulisic, Mexican soccer players, Messi, Brazil's Neymar and Vinicius Jr, are all in shock. Less advertised, less well known players are making their way, and this may be a good thing as the advertising has gone overboard. Companies were pouring money into these ads turning the  players into constant presence in ads and creating an atmosphere that is not healthy for soccer as a sport. One just hopes France's Mbappe with his humility and quiet demeanor doesn't get into one more noisy ad on television like the others. Is Christiano Ronaldo, the little kid from Madeira, Portugal, coming out of nowhere at that time, a billionaire? Is Messi also from remote town of Rosario, Santa Fe province, Argentina, a billionaire? This doesn't do much for the sport. Germany's best goal scorer in this World Cup only dreamed of not having to do two jobs, and having a steady career, after struggling for a long period. There is something in this World Cup that has brought previously unknown players from unknown places like Cabo Verde to the forefront on world television, including the Egyptian and Moroccan players, the players from other smaller countries. Even the English players in the Premier League playing for England look good by comparison. ...

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German economic growth drops in 2026 to below 1%. What is happening?Germany manufacturing jobs drop to 6.6 million lowest in 10 years in 2026 as China makes same products for less and better. China is shipping more of its products to the German market and displacing German products in world markets. The same problems affecting the US in loss of manufacturing jobs is affecting Germany. This is happening as China uses long range plans coordinated with industry and state owned companies to deliver superior results in world markets to American and German companies competing on their own without coordination with the government in a long range plan and effort. The American and German companies face greater uncertainty in markets and are slow to invest in critical areas and technologies as a result leaving them exposed to Chinese competition. China has used the Japanese style subsidizing its industries and has another advantage in doing this in that many are state owned companies or heavily subsidized and supported by the state. After 1990 the fall of the Soviet system led to a sense that free markets in their purest form were better. This was not really true as the soviet system of state planning failed because it did not use the best features of the market economy that work. Japan adapted the market system to its needs and used state partnership with private industry to produce good results. The US did not learn from Japan's example. China learned from both the failure of soviet style planning and the success of the Japanese system to adapt its state plannning system by including aspects of the market economy. The US and Germany can only learn from these examples and adapt US market economy by including aspects of what worked for China and Japan of state plannning and long range plans of industry and government. Look back to how FDR won the war- within 5 years 1940-1945 he combined the best aspects of the planning and coordination of government and industry to achieve goals not thought possible. Britain did the same which shows such planning and coordination is not only a part of the US system of business and industry, it is just that these lessons and the lessons of other nations like Japan and China after 1950 were forgotten. India is now adapting its system for business and industry, and government for five year plans borrowing and learning from the examples of the US, Japan, China and the EU. ...

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Janet Mills, 2 term governor, 78 years, fails to have poll lead over Plattner with local Maine bred identity in the 2026 Democratic primary. It says a lot about the voter attitudes in 2026 which want to steer forward not backwards. Janet Mills ran ads on Plattner but did not get the lead, leading to her withdrawal from the primary. Republican Susan Collins looks hard to dislodge from this seat. Republicans in Louisiana on the heels of the SCOTUS decision against gerrymandered electoral districts want to redraw the electoral districts so that Democrats are left out of the state Congressional delegation entirely.

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This piece in the Hindusthan Times reminds us that it is not failure or success that determine our future and the quality of our life, but the way we respond. It takes the lines from Rudyard Kipling about both being impostors- "if you can meet triumph and disaster,  and treat both impostors just the same..." Experts say the important thing in both success and failure is to understand what one did wrong, and take corrective action. Some go as far as to say failure is an event, and it ended yesterday. This is the way athletes and other people who overcome challenges that we read about have approached a failure or disaster. Some overcome physical handicaps with such grit that we find our failure to be tiny by comparison. Take for instance an athlete with burns on his feet from a fire, who is told he can never walk again, and he comes back to win an Olympics gold medal in running. This is a true story from the 1936 Olympics of Glenn Cunningham who won the 1500 metres gold medal. ...

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Reeves and Lammy depart as Burnham chooses new cabinet Healey is new chancellor and Shabana continues as Home Secretary. Healey was Defense secretary under Starmer. It is important that he was in 1999 Parliamentary Private Secretary to Gordon Brown as Chancellor of the Exchequer. In 2002 he was appointed Economic Secretary to the Treasury, and in 2005 Financial Secretary to the Treasury. In 2009 he was Minister of State for Housing and Planning. Shadow Secretary of Health in 2010 and 2016, Shadow Secretary for Defense under Starmer after supporting Starmer for leadership of the Labour Party. He was first elected to parliament in 1997 and had majorities of 50-70% in elections serving for 29 years in parliament. He is the right choice for Chancellor, or Finance Minister of the UK to work with Burnham on Labour's goals. Reeves was problematic from the beginning because she stuck to what people said could or could not be done, not able to think outside the box to get Labour to be itself and do what people wanted from Labour. In this way she set herself and the Labour party for failure by losing the very public that Labour had promised to help, with this public becoming indifferent to Labour, because in many ways it was Reeves's Labour not Starmer's. As Starmer, not much of an original thinker and little experience outside of law, followed Reeves economic theories borrowed from The City, Britain's version of Wall Street. Andy Burnham is right to choose someone who can think on his feet, no knowledge of economic theory required because orthodox economic theory has failed America, failed Britain, and created the mess of single supply chain concentrated in China in the first place with its theories of comparitive advantage. What is needed is someone who grasps and hold near his heart the aspirations of the British people, and hears their concerns everyday, not think tanks telling one what to do, and acting on these concerns in creative ways, thinking and improvising solutions along the way, not afraid to experiment. This is how FDR handled the economic difficulties of the 1930's, another period like today's when Wall Street theories had failed badly. This is also how China handled the economic collapse after Mao's death following the Cultural Revolution in 1984-1997. This is how Modi handled the economic difficulties in building a modern nation by experimentation in the western state of Gujarat in 2001-2014 without preconceived ideas and theories, keeping what worked and expanding on it.  Lammy was not the right choice for Deputy Prime Minister, and failed to provide leadership and focus the country's attention on the issues of migrants, asylum hotels, housing, rebuilding relations with the European Union, economic growth, neglect of the north of England and other deprived regions. No such position of Deputy prime minister can be filled in many situations. As Foreign Secretary there needed to be some one who could speak with a stronger voice for Britain with the European Union, the US, China, India, and be seen across the spectrum of views in Britain as an effective voice. ...

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The Fed and FDIC issue a report on the failure to regulate SVB and Signature bank. It says the failure to regulate stems from the law passed by Congress leaving a gap for regulation of mid sized banks, and the appointment of Randall Quarles to the Fed supervisory position by then president Trump in 2019. The result was a 40% decline in hours spent by supervisory regulators on the SVB bank even as its assets grew rapidly. Overall the supervisory hours for the Federal Reserve system as a whole declined. This led to cultural issues under Mr. Trump where less regulation the better was the prevailing attitude. Fed report in Fedspeak says- "Staff felt a shift in culture and expectations from internal discussions and observed behaviour that changed how regulation was executed." It would take a special effort by the Biden administration to bring the situation under control to keep the nation's banking system healthy and strong to support the investments the economy needs. After the 2009 crisis and the decade lost to the US economy and the American people from losses in unemployment and savings as a result of deregulated banks, another crisis was prevented. This time the Fed, FDIC, General Accountability Office are all clear about the value and role of regulation in a properly functioning economy, instead of the pushback after the 2009 crisis to regulation. Once again president Biden has shown the way.   ...

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US Senator Elizabeth Warren says the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank happened after president Trump signed a law with the help of Congress and the US central bank the Fed to roll back some of the strict oversight and regulations that were setup after the 2008 financial crisis from the failure of bank practices. The Guardian reports that the CEO of SVB lobbied to reduce the regulatory oversight needed leading to its collapse.

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Krugman says the failure of the Supercommittee would be a time to celebrate, better no deal than a bad deal. This is also what the Wall Street Journal said in an editorial on the same day, Nov. 18, 2011.

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UK Reform Party has taken large donations from cryptocurrency companies. Reform leader Nigel Farage has received a 5 million pound gift from a cryptocurrency firm. What does this mean for cryptocurrency regulation in the UK as a world financial center, if Reform wins a general election and appoints the next Governor of the Bank of England when Andrew Bailey retires in 2028. This is discussed in The Guardian. The banking system of the US, UK and large countries was set up over many years and currency is only issued by a central bank with the financial backing of the nation. Cryptocurrency cannot on the basis of technology take that role without posing risks and destabilizing the financial system. The gradual splitting of society by the information economy, neglect of infrastructure, pharmaceutical pricing, banking speculation as in 2009 crisis, have been eroding some of the basic structures of democracy for the last two decades from within.  The wars in the Middle East policies, and the open borders migration policies, were effects from outside. What this has led to is counter to what one would expect. To fight open borders and the marginalization of some parts of the working class DJT Republicans have used whatever resources were available at the time in the 2024 presidential election. The cryptocurrency firms used this in opportunistic fashion to affect regulation of this currency by supporting the reelection bid of DJT in 2024 by making large donations. This has led to less regulation of cryptocurrency firms. Is this in the best interests of the Nation? Will this destabilize the banking system in ways that have happened before in the deregulation of banks before the 2009 financial crisis? In Britain a new Bank of England governor will be appointed after Andrew Bailey's term expires in 2028. Reform party in UK if elected as government would appoint the next Governor of the Bank of England. Reform's growing popularity is a result of Conservatives and Labour failing to take action on open borders, asylum hotels, and migration policy, following an ECHR code of rights that is inappropriate to such migration. What this means is that unexpected things happen as a result. Cyrptocurrency risks of destabilizing the banking system increase as a result of failure of parties on migration. This could be more destabilizing for Britain because of its role as a financial centre than the industrialized  economies such as Germany, China, and industrializing economies such as India. It poses risks in the US yet Federal Reserve Governor Walsh can exercise his own judgement about cryptocurrency and Congress can exercise oversight, the large banks can act to show the risks of destabilizing that cryptocurrency can pose. For Britain it is particularly dangerous as the US is also an industrialized power compared to Britain's focus on finance alone. Andrew Bailey can ignore lobbying by Reform Party in 2026 (Farage met with the Governor of the Bank of England), yet what happens if Reform appoints the next Governor in 2028? These are questions Britain needs to ponder. It is also why Andy Burnham is Britain's last chance to get things right on migration to the point that the British people feel good and proud of their heritage and history, British neighborhoods across the country feel safe and secure, and Britain shifts to reindustrialize its economy with partners in China and India, the European Union, and the US. A former Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Sir Charlie Bean told the BBC about donations of Christopher Harbonne, who has a 13% ownership interest in cryptocurrency firm,Tether. "Stablecoins are only stable if they have the appropriate regulatory environment… But there is right now an unsurprising regulatory race to the bottom amid the potential for greater profits." He added: "When funds are coming from major shareholders of such large financial institutions, there is a clear potential conflict of interest here, for example, in the appointment of a new Bank of England governor. Transparency is one solution." ...

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Failures can be very informative for a learning mindset. They also provide clues and hints for corrective action and improvements that build for the long term future.

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Difficulties faced in winning the farm vote in Gujarat made it harder for Modi's BJP party to win Modi's home state in recent elections. This could lead to a more cautious approach from the BJP government. Price supports and subsidies were an issue for cotton farmers in Gujarat, leading to the loss of seats for the BJP party in Saurashtra region of Gujarat. The BJP resisted measures to boost price supports, subsidies and debt forgiveness leading to the loss of farmers support.

Modi remains popular in the country yet the election shows corruption, difficult situation of farmers facing inflation and water issues, and voters willingness to shift support, could make the ruling party more cautious in taking steps after the introduction of GST unified tax system and monetization slowed growth to 5.7% by mid-2017.

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Yaroslav Trofimov gives his reflections on what the war means for Russia in this Essay in WSJ, and the sense within Russia that the war itself was a mistake. A result of miscalculations and a result that leaves Russia in no way better than it was in 2021 before the conflict. Hard won economic gains achieved by Mr. Putin during the last two decades have in fact been compromised by the conflict. No discussion has even been done on the transition away from fossil fuels that have been accelerated by the conflict. This is particularly relevant for Russia where the question of redundant fossil fuel assets during the rapid transition to renewable energy is a problem that needs to be tackled. The Ukraine diversion in this way affects the Russian economy and acts as a distraction from important economic goals. Global public opinion is also affected in ways that do not look favorable for Russia the longer the war goes on particularly the effect on food insecurity in poor countries, and energy security in Europe for poor households, the senseless destruction of infrastructure in Ukraine and millions of women and children displaced, all creating a sense of overwhelming moral failure. Mr. Modi of India is reported by FR24 to have told Mr. Putin at a meeting on September 15 that "this is no time for war." This is shown on today's pages in Lyrarc. How could it be a time for war when the pandemic has taken lives of over 1 million people in the US, over 2 million in Europe, millions in Asia, Latin America and Africa, and the world is only now coming out of it. The competition is not between countries for major power status but between countries on achieving better lives for its people, stronger economies, and better job, health, infrastructure and services to ordinary people, tackling problems on a common basis such as climate change. In most situations even the advanced countries of North America and Europe are facing the same problems faced by middle income countries such as China,Russia, and developing countries such as India- how to combine market economy with State participation in the economy and government ensuring fairness to all, better distribution of incomes and wealth, ensuring that there is a level playing field for all and opportunities for all. ...

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About the collapse of two banks- Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank Fed vice chairman for financial and banking supervision, Michael Barr, had this to say at a Congressional hearing last week- "I think anytime you have a bank failure like this, bank management clearly failed, supervisors failed, and our regulatory system failed."  The rest of this report looks at changes the Fed can on its own make stricter supervision of banks over $100 billion, action the Biden administration is thinking of taking, and action by the FDIC. The Biden administration does not want to be seen supporting wealthy depositors at Silicon Valley Bank by guaranteeing uninsured deposits as it did. It took this action solely to protect the financial system so that it would not hurt working families. For this reason alone the Biden administration will seek tighter controls of mid sized banks now that the illusion that banks below $250 billion do not pose a risk to the financial system is gone. It will also seek to recover all funds used to support these failed banks from the banks and financial sector that has lobbied for so long for less regulation leading to failure of banks not once in 2009, but again in 2023. This time under the Biden administration the damage is carefully controlled so that it does not affect the American economy and working families. ...

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This NYT editorial describes the failure of president Obama's immigration policy and the deportation of large numbers of illegal immigrants. It says Obama has deported more immigrants faster than any other U.S. president. And it says president Obama has used even the statement that he would look for ways to make the process "more humane" a delaying action. It says that after some 2 million deportations the whole situation is infuriating.

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Dominic Randolph, headmaster of Riverdale Country School, New York City, is skeptical of the value of an education that focusses so much on test taking, IQ and scores, and does so little to build the character and resilience that is so essential to life experiences. He says the ability to handle failure and learn from failure to build a better life is something students fail to learn in the competitive school environment of today.

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Jerome Fons rates the credit rating agencies F for failure, and says its time to leave out ratings language from financial contracts. Its time to rely on good judgement. He is former managing director of Moody's. The system is rife he says with conflicts of interest and the whole system has failed and is still in failing mode. The finacial system he says can function without letter ratings, regulators and investors should consider all the relevant information about an investment including market prices. And he says lets return to the tool we all used before we delegated responsibility to ratings agencis, and this tool is our better judgement of things.

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The Bell 212 helicopter that crashed in dense fog over East Azerbaijan due to technical failures leading to death of president Raisi and the foreign minister of Iran, was originally built in 1971 for the Canadian Armed Forces. Later supplied to the US Army and in 1988 manufactured in Quebec, then discontinued in 1998. Iran and other countries in eastern Europe still use Bell 212 helicopters which were widely used for commercial purposes. Iran has to contend with difficulty of getting spare parts from the US and Canada. The only other crash reported for Bell 212 is one in 1986 in North Sea oil facilities in dense fog. Reports say the 50 year old Bell 212 depends on visual flight conditions meaning only what the pilot can see from his seat which would have made it very difficult in the steep mountain slopes of eastern Azerbaijan.