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In Argentina the Right and Left politics have failed for most of this century, the economy struggles again in 2026- Millei and Argentina as shown by the NYT's Cohen. Yet inflation is down and something different is being tried. Bloated bureaucracy is cut down to basics, investments in mining and oil, manufacturing weak and infrastructure investments lacking, no clear solutions. Mexico benefits from American reshoring of factories in automobiles yet is the place where drug trafficking is happening and this is a problem of major dimensions, Brazil benefits from its vast agricultural wealth in the Amazon region, Argentina is seeking a mining boom, Venezuela after a deep shock from Chavez ideas and hyperinflation only now recovering, much of Latin America and Africa have missed the economic and technological changes that are underway in Asia for the last 50 years.

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Alexandra Stevenson provides this exceptional account summarizing the reasoning in the minds of Argentine negotiators and holdout bondholders over a debt dispute remaining from the 2001 Argentine debt crisis and default. Over a decade later the repercussions of Argentina's 2001 debt crisis and default are still taking new twists ant turns. Holdout bondholders won in U.S. courts and Judge Griesa ordered Argentina to make full payment demanded by holdout bondholders. Argentina responded by depositing $539 million in Bank of New York Mellon as instalment payment to exchange bondholders. Judge Griesa responded by ruling that if Bank of New York Mellon made the payment it would be in contempt of court. Griesa also called for court mediated negotiations between Argentina and the holdout bondholders to come up with an agreement. Argentina and hedge fund holdouts negotiated in July 2014 but talks faltered. Legal experts say that if Argentina makes an agreement with holdout bondholders led by NML Capital which is asking for $1.5 billion, the risk is that the exchange bondholders could also ask for better terms. After the 2001 crisis following which Argentina defaulted on its debt, agreements were reached for bondholders to be paid about 25 cents on the dollar. Not all bondholders agreed, the bondholders who agreed are called the exhange bondholders, and the ones holding out holdout bondholders. From the Argentine government's point of view the risk of reaching agreement with the holdouts suing Argentina is that the other holdout bondholders not represented in the lawsuit could also ask for the same terms, and Argentina would have to pay all the holdouts costing it $15 billion. Risks if Argentina allows it to go into default are that exchange bondholders would come together to pressure the Argentine government to make a full payment of their discounted bonds quickly. This would cost Argentina payment of as much as $28.7 billion, according to JPMorgan estimates, under the right to "accelerate" payment if Argentina is considered as having missed a July 30, 2014 payment deadline. Legal experts say Argentina has to weigh this risk, which may or may not occur depending on the exchange bondholders taking such action, against the risk of having to pay out $15 billion to all the holdouts. Paying all holdouts would be politically very unpopular in Argentina, posing political risks for the socialist Peronist Kirchner government, already facing difficulties with the trade unions and the stronger opposition from centrist parties in Buenos Aires province. Default would affect Argentine access to capital markets, which is already highly restricted. Yet because Argentina has made the payment to Bank of New York Mellon, blocked by Judge Griesa, the nature of this default would be different. A worse case scenario for Argentina's Kirchner government is reopening negotiations with exchange bondholders for higher payment on debt than the 25 cents on the dollar already agreed to. Argentina faces an acute cash shortage with international reserves of only about $29.5 billion in May 2014, and a slowing agricultural export dependent economy. This is why the prospect of a technical default is being treated with relative calm in Buenos Aires....

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Alexandra Stevenson provides this exceptional account of how the debt deal between Argentina and the hedge funds was negotiated. A decade long deadlock was broken for the first time when Argentina's finance secretary in the newly elected government of Mauricio Macri met Jonathan Pollock and Jay Newman of Elliott Management on Dec. 7, 2015, at the Waldorf Astoria hotel in New York. It is based on 8 intervews with the participants in the negotiations, court filings and emails. Critical to the settlement was the work of Dan Pollack, a trial lawyer with the McCarter & English law firm who acted as the mediator and made some rules including no pen and paper allowed, building trust through open discussion. Back channels helped including one setup through Marcos Mindlin of energy firm Pampa Energia in Argentina, who helped the hedge funds communicate with the Argentine negotiators. Mindlin met the hedge fund representatives at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Argentine president Macri insisted on making the terms he offered public on Feb. 1, 2016 of $6.5 billion because this is a sensitive issue in Argentina. Pollack pushed for a simple business transaction to close the issue and not the complex debt structuring the hedge funds favored. On Feb. 19, Judge Griesa of Federal District Court in Manhattan, who presided over the legal settlement, agreed to lift an injunction that would prevent Argentina from making bond payments and raising new money, and set a deadline of Feb. 29 for the settlement. On Feb. 28 the deal was signed by all the hedge funds. Argentina paid all holdout hedgefunds $9.3 billion, according to the Economy ministry, Elliott getting $2.4 billion....

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Argentina's 25% export tax on soyabeans exports  has led to a mere 8% increase in soyabean acreage since 2009 compared to 118% in Brazil that has no such tax. Productivity in agriculture is restricted because lower profits mean less is invested in patented seeds and agricultural equipment. Agriculture becomes less profitable. There is also a 10% tax on wheat exports. These taxes did not exist by 2000 in Latin American countries. Under Nestor Kirchner Argentina reintroduced the export tax after repudiating the debt, devaluing the peso, and shifting the economy to diverting more agricultural production for domestic use. This worked for a while during the crisis. It is now a problem limiting growth of agricultural exports and limiting economic growth. Even under Xavier Milei, the new president who is discarding many parts of the old regime, the export tax is not discarded as it is needed to balance the budget to fight high inflation.

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A year after taking office Argentine president Milei cuts spending by 30% bringing inflation down from 25% to 2.4% in November 2024. All sorts of programs are cut that had proliferated over the years. The resut is that the economy shrinks by 3.5% in 2024, only to grow rapidly by 5% in 2025 restoring a more stable pattern of growth and moderate inflation. Throughout it's history Argentina has faced high inflation and economic crises.A similar pattern in Brazil was broken in 1998 after two decades of inflation. It reached 56% in January 1990 dropping to about 2% in 1998.

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Argentina's government of president Alberto Fernandes is making a state takeover of Vicentin, a soyabean exporter which filed for bankruptcy in 2019 and is in ongoing court proceedings. Mr. Fernandes says he is doing this to rescue the century old agricultural firm to protect Vicentin workers, and 2600 farmers who sell crops to the company. Vicentin is Argentina's top exporter of soy meal and soy cooking oil. Mr. Fernandez says the company is a very important asset for the entire Argentine economy. Argentina's farm exports are its main source of earnings in dollars.  A drought in Argentina's farm sector in April 2018 led to a drop in export revenues and worsened Argentina's financial position leading to the 2020 default on Argentine debt. In 2018 the farm sector lost a third of its crop value and 1.5% of GDP. Growth in 2017 was 3% but declined to 1% in 2018. A number of other factors including overborrowing using dollar denominated debt led to the economic crisis in 2020 right in the middle of the pandemic in May 2020. Fernandez is a moderate compared to the previous Kirchner administrations and was elected in 2019 to get Argentina out of the debt crisis after confidence in president Mauricio Macri declined. Fernandez has tackled the coronavirus crisis with an early lockdown compared to neighboring Brazil which has not taken decisive action making Brazil the second largest after the U.S. in cases. This gives Argentina some room to tackle the debt crisis and negotiations with the IMF, lenders. ...

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Argentina's win in a penalty shootout with Netherlands will be remembered for the intensity and the exchange of words between the teams, the red card to Dumfries of the Netherlands. It was not football like as Messi later pointed out. "We suffered more than we should have done," says Messi after the game. After the penalty shootout the Argentine goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez sent a defiant look at the Dutch. A fracas ensued and Dumfries of the Nertherlands was given a red card. Both teams are being sanctioned by FIFA.

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Messi uncertain if he will play for the World Cup in the US in 2026. It is 20 years since he played at the age of 18. The aging Messi says some days he feels good, on other days not so good, and it depends on his physical condition if he will play. He recalls with affection the chance to play in Argentina and score goals in the game against Venezuela 3-0 before retiring. He was thankful for the chance to play for Barcelona fans.

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Instead of $20 billion proposed before Argentine elections when the country was facing economic pressures, banks will lend $5 billion in a short term facility, according to this report in WSJ November  20 2025 

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A situation now in the Euro-zone countries of Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain, that is similiar to what Argentina faced when its economy collapsed and the peso was devalued in 2001. The Argentine peso was pegged to the dollar increasing the attractiveness of Argentine bonds for foreign investors. A severe recession in the 1990's made it difficult for Argentina to service its debt. And the high value of the peso made it harder for Argentine exporters to compete . A devaluation of the Brazilian currency in 2001 left Argentina in a situation where it was no longer able to compete. The government fell and the economy suffered a severe blow with depression and cuts in spending. Both the Argentine peso's peg to the dollar and the adoption of the euro by Greece, Portugal, and Spain prevent adjustment through a devaluation, making the situation worse over time. Some experts from that time including Mohamed El-Arian of PIMCO see the exit of some countries from the euro-zone. Their view is that bondholders in Europe will have to accept new securities that pay less interest and mature over a longer period....

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Taylor Swift's show in Buenos Aires, Argentina, attracts a staggering 2.8 million on the waiting list, and 200,000 in the audience over 3 shows. Swift is amazed at this turnout, her popularity reaching that of Messi in this South American country.

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Argentina has faced repeated bouts of very high inflation. In this episode it joins countries such as Turkey, Sri Lanka, Ghana and others.

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President Mauricio Macri of Argentina loses badly in a nationwide primary in Argentina. Peso and stocks dropped after the defeat and a sense that Macri's policies have not worked. The economy declined 5.8% in the first quarter of 2019 from a year earlier, with some recovery in recent months.  Following the defeat by Peronist party candidate Alberto Hernandez, Macri announced measures to help Argentine workers and middle class. He raised the minimum wage, increased public sector salaries, and put a freeze on fuel prices.  The Peronist party's Alberto Hernandez now looks likely to succeed Macri. Inflation is at 56% in June. Hernandez is a former cabinet chief under Christina Kirchner and Nestor Kirchner, former presidents. Christina Kirchner is running as Hernadez's running mate for vice president.  Under Christina Kirchner the government ran large deficits and defaulted on the national debt. Drop in commodities prices hurt Argentina and it also hurt Brazil during that period, worsening state finances. Macri provided an alternative but his market friendly policies have failed to help ordinary Argentines through errors in policy making and much of the early enthusiasm is lost. High inflation hurt ordinary Argentines the most. In the past week the Argentina stock market has lost about a third of its value and the peso has dropped by about 22% to 59 pesos to the dollar. Argentina is unique in the way it has swung back and forth for four decades.between market friendly administrations that did well initially and then failed dismally, and socialist Peronist party administrations with the same pattern. High inflation and dropping currency reserves were typical in downturns.  Brazil has suffered from crumbling state finances and collapse in essential services such as sanitation and health. Showing a deterioration of finances across Latin America. ...

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Argentina imposes currency controls as the economic crisis worsens. The peso has lost 25% of its value and inflation is at 50%. A $57 billion IMF loan has failed to restore confidence. President Macri came into office abolishing currency controls, now he is compelled to reverse his policy. Macri also said the government will delay $7 billion in debt repayments. Argentina is back to the frequent economic crises it has faced since 1945. Macri's loss in primary elections to Mr. Fernandez of the Peronist Party has changed the situation in Argentina ending the Macri administration's period in office by December.

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The mismanagement of the economy under president Macri is leading to an economic crisis in the country. By embracing economic orthodoxy and slashing subsidies for fuel, electricity and transportation Mr. Macri who won the election 3 years ago has cause the prices of these basic goods to skyrocket. This has hurt the middle class and poor in Argentina. For most of this century Argentina has pursued populist policies, and in the last five decades periods of free market principle based economics were followed by severe crises, and subsequent restoration of populist policies to improve the economic conditions that had deteriorated.  The peso lost half of its value in 2018, leading to a IMF bailout of $57 billion. Inflation is at 50%, unemployment above 9%. To stem the fall in the peso the central bank increased interest rates to 60% stifling the economy and business. Under his predecessor Christine Kirchner the peso's value suffered and its currency reserves were low after fall in soyabean prices, yet the currency had not suffered the kind of decline that it has seen under Mr. Macri. The cutting of subsidies and the economic crisis has increased the number of poor to about a third of the population. Argentina now faces another of the repeated cycles of going from a populist Peronist administration to a free market orthodoxy supporting government, followed by an economic crisis and a shift back to Peronist populist administration policies. Part of the problem is that Argentina, and Brazil, and most of Latin America is still dependent on commodity exports, and the economy dependent on commodity prices. The manufacturing sector has not taken off as it has in Asian countries. This has led to repeated crises in times when the currency reserves declined and affected the currency, also leading to bouts of severe inflation.   ...

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A Pemex brokered deal for $5 billion in Argentine bonds as compensation to Spain's Repsol for its 51% stake in YPF. The Argentine government nationalized YPF saying Repsol was not investing enough in developing oil and gas reserves. With the discovery of shale gas reserves estimated to be third only to reserves in the U.S. and China and large shale oil reserves, the Argentine government is seeking foreign investment in the oil industry. A settlement with Repsol, with the help of Mexico's Pemex which has a 10% stake in YPF, enables Argentina to seek technology and investment from western oil companies. Chevron has invested in the Vaca Muerta shale field in Argentina.

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A year after winning reelection by a large margin, Argentina's president, Mrs. Kirchner, faces a sharp drop in popularity from over 60% to 32%. Problems facing the Argentine economy include slowing growth from the 7% pace from 2003-2011 to about 3% in 2012, and inflation estimated at about 25%. This has cut into purchasing power of workers wages. A general strike by trade unions on Nov. 20, 2012 shut down the capital of Buenos Aires. About half of the population of 41 million live in Buenos Aires. Currency controls imposed to tackle capital flight after the election have hurt support from the middle class. Within the Peronist movement there appears to be a split between the traditional union support and the left representd by Mrs. Kirchner. Argentina depends on trade with Brazil which is the largest buyer of Argentine goods. The slowdown in Brazil has hurt Argentina's economy.

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Argentine president Christina Kirchner asks trade unions to accept wage increases of 18% instead of 25%. Estimates of inflation in Argentina range from 20% to 25%. Official estimates of 10% inflation are highly understated.

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While attention is placed on Brazil for coronavirus, neighboring Argentina has an economic crisis with debt of $324 billion, reaching 90% of GDP. The new Peronist party government in Argentina is supported by the IMF in negotiations with creditors, as it faces the coronavirus and needs to free up resources from debt payments to tackle the crisis. Its proposal to Ad Hoc group of creditors including investment funds Black Rock and Fidelity is for a three year grace period on debt payments, 62% reduction of interest  amounting to $37 billion, and 5% reduction of capital or $3.6 billion. Earlier governments mishandled the economy leading to overborrowing on an unsustainable basis. Argentina has defaulted on debt 20 times in its history. The last being in 2001 with debt of $100 billion. The pattern of overborrowing and mismanagement by administrations modeled on free market economies has continued. Lenders, borrowers, and the government have not acted prudently knowing this history. ...

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Argentina faces severe inflation of over 70%. The central bank raised its main interest rate to 75% to rein in inflation. In December 2022 the International Monetary Fund approved $6 billion, in a 30 month program that is expected to reach a total of $44 billion. The government of Pedro Sanchez has announced additional $10 billion in cost of living aid to take the total to $45 billion. It comes through reduced VAT and $200 one off payments to households making less than 27,000 euros a year.

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World Cup Soccer fans in Kerala and the enthusiasm for teams of Argentina, Brazil and Portugal, attacking goal scoring players Messi, Neymar and Ronaldo.

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The Argentina 2023 elections results show Sergio Massa, the current Economy Minister has 36% of the vote, and Javier Milei with 30%, and 24% for Patricia Bulrich a former security minister. The election rules require a candidate to get 45% of the vote or result in a runoff between the two leading candidates. Massa apologized for mistakes made by his administration. Milei calls for cutting budget for social welfare in a country suffering from steep 140% inflation and for abolition of the central bank, dollarizing the economy when it has $44 billion debt and a IMF program, ideas seen as extreme and risky. It is a sign of how the nation of 46 million is reaching for extreme steps as a result of failing in the fight against inflation and runaway spending.

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The failures in Argentina's management of the economy recurring decade after decade for the last 50 years and with an historical trend, relate to the breakdown in the political process in the country, the failure of society to come to grips with the problems as one community with common interests when fighting inflation as we see in most nations including in the US, Europe and modernizing nations of Asia. As well as countries such as Brazil that have overcome their issues with inflation since the 1970's. The lack of industrialization in Argentina and Chile leaves the countries vulnerable to commodity exports. A bad harvest year can ruin the economy as no rainy day fund exists as was done in Russia after economic crises. Borrowing from the IMF leads to a cycle of repeat crises followed by IMF borrowings, austerity budgets such as Milei's when budgets can be corruption free, disciplined and efficient to begin with for a startand kept that way by the whole of society acting together under responsible political leaders. Asian nations learned from Europe and drafted their economic path, Latin America which is largely populated by emigrants from Europe has failed to do this. The differences are stark. Much of Asia experienced war and strife since the 1930's and the suffering created a dire need for good leadership and programs for modernization and infrastructure by all of society pulling together. In Latin America the failures of political parties across the spectrum has led to drugs entering the economic framework, leading to failed states in other ways, and large parts of Latin America are now affected by this problem. The results are that this affects the people of Europe and the US with illegal flows, a problem unprecedented in the history of the US since 1787.  ...

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Under Argentina's planned nationalization of oil company YPF, the government will take a 51% controlling stake in YPF. Of this stake the central government will take 51% and the provinces will take 49%. The bill is expected to be approved by Argentina's Congress. Spain's Repsol acquired a 57% stake during privatization efforts in the 1990's. YPF reserves constitute a large part of Repsol's reserves and 30% of its profits. Argentine oil production declined during the last ten years even as energy demand has increased in Argentina. The privatization of the 1990's is viewed badly in Argentina. Argentina now faces the challenge of increasing oil production and learning from efforts of Petrobras in Brazil.

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Most of the provinces vote in favor of Milei including Cordoba and Mendoza, Salta and SantaFe. Only Buenos Aires province and two other provinces vote in favor of Sergio Massa, the Peronist candidate. Milei wins by 56% to Massa's 46%. The election is affected by the Peronist party president Fernandez's failure to control inflation that has reached 140%. La Nacion points out that most voters are angry at the political and economic reality, and are not voting for an ideology. In April 2020 one US dollar was worth 80 pesos, in 2023 it is 1000 pesos. Argentine has a chronic problem- repeated bouts of high inflation over 4 decades.