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China's export dependent economy with 4% decline in fixed investment Jan-May 2026 and 27% jump in exports.1 million car exports per month in June. Exports make up 20% of China's GDP. China is challenging German companies in their home markets in Europe. Domestic sales of cars are down 16% in June. What this means is that China's growth now depends on exports alone, with construction slowdown, and weak consumer spending. How does this tie into China's posture in trade with the US? It negotiated from a position of strength on rare earths not to give in to DJT tariffs yet knows the importance of trade for the Chinese economic model, importance of US and EU markets, markets worldwide. China's strategy is to shift some of the lost US sales due to tariffs to other countries in Latin America and Asia. A top priority is to keep trade with the US and European Union on a good footing, so that its exports can be absorbed. How does it affect Hormuz? For China Hormuz as an oil source is much lower in importance and China can do without Iran, it absolutely cannot do without the US and European Union to take a big part of its exports. It also does not openly say this but it also shares concerns similar to the US, on nuclear weapons in Iran. India, Japan and the EU have similar concerns. As shown in the articles on this page China has large unused oil in reserves and coal supplies, has lower oil demand at 4% growth, and is accelerating renewable energy, so that it is now importing 8.5 million barrels a day down from 12.5 million barrels a day. By doing this China puts this oil back into the world supply leading to lower oil prices. This means the world can do without the supplies from Hormuz, keep lower oil prices, and go on as before if Hormuz remains closed. The US can focus on domestic issues and its involvement in the Middle East can be limited to naval blockade which the US Navy is capable of doing. This is good for China, good for the US, and good for the World. Local governments in China, provincial authorites, pushed growth in building road, bridges, factories during the 30 year growth phase 1990-2020. In 2026 local governments with debt loads and lack of good projects for investment are a bottleneck to growth. This is the first time fixed investment is in decline, except for the years in 1961 and in 1967. The year 1961 is a result of many mistakes made by chairman of CCP, Mao, by shifting 2 million in farm labour to work in iron foundries, and the shift from private farm plots to soviet style commune farms, coupled with floods leading to 43-46 million famine deaths (1994, Chen Yizi, top advisor to CCP General Secretary Zhao Zhiyang). 1967 is the chaotic situation of the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution launched by Mao. What it shows is that the China Miracle like the Japan Miracle and the German Miracle of recovery after World War II, is based on certain conditions and will enter a phase of lower growth closer to 3% like other industrialized nations over time. India and Indonesia are larger than China and will be the next growth story, which is also shown on these pages this week, with the address to the Indonesian parliament by Modi, and Indonesian president Prabovo's saying that he has studied Modi's economic changes and is copying them as there is no copyright. ...

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US and Iran accept Pakistan's mediation of the war with a 2 week ceasefire and opening of Straits of Hormuz- April 7 2026. The mediation by prime minister Sharif of Pakistan gave both sides in the war a way to back down. Both sides agreed to talks in Islamabad, Pakistan. As a partner of Pakistan, China may also have a role in setting up a settlement as China and Japan have the most to lose from the Straits of Hormuz being closed, oil prices rocketing up to $115 and higher, and even a prolonged shutdown of Hormuz Straits. Both China and Japan get 90% of their imports from Hormuz Straits. Oil prices drop to the $100 level from $115 after the announcement of talks in Islamabad. This is not a long term settlement. After the two weeks US president meets president Xi of China in Beijing shortly afterwards on May 14-15. It is likely that preparations for that trip will involve China and Pakistan working together to get the US and Iran to agree to an extension of the ceasefire. One outcome of this war is as Le Monde has noted- the unreliability of Hormuz supplies and shift to imports from US and Venezuela and other parts of the world for fossil fuels. And with this a renewed effort to reduce the fossil fuels needed by accelerating renewable energy supplies in Europe, India and China. More attention will also be focused on reducing the proliferation of nuclear weapons by all major powers. Removing US involvement in NATO may also turn out to be positive in some ways to bring Russia and US as nuclear powers to better working relationships, and reduce the nuclear arms race and weapons race. For Europe it means meeting needs of Ukraine and improving military capabilities. The overall result may be positive for all countries. The Middle East region will be seen as one in which no powers should get involved in and the Middle East will also find it has squandered its valuable oil dividend in five decades of wars and mismanagement and fall behind the rest of Asia and Europe, the US in economic progress and development. ...

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India faces tariff of 25% with policies of reliance on Russia for arms and oil,  Mexico Canada and South Korea face higher tariffs August 1 2025 as they are holdouts now that UK, Japan, EU, Indonesia, Vietnam have agreements with the US on trade.

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The difficulties of unwinding war stimulus that has increased jobs and wages in poorer regions of Russia, and the problems with unwinding a war economy, are discussed here by experts from Russia, the US and Germany. Other aspects include what to do with hundreds of thousands of new recruited soldiers who would be unemployed during a period when the economy's growth has slowed and wage growth is slowing. In 2024 new recruits were given 1 years bonus and were being attracted in large numbers. JD Vance mentioned this to the new Pope in discussions, and this report says even Putin does not know how best to unwind this war economy. Vance told Pope Leo XIV -“I’m not sure that Vladimir Putin himself has a strategy for how to unwind the war.” This is the view also from an expert at the Free University of Berlin, as rapidly demobilizing a large army poses its own problems. Russia could export the arms from new arms factories and keep people employed. This option is difficult as many African countries buy on credit and Asian other buyers may seek the latest technologies, others face financial difficulties or like India are diversifying and shifting to local manufacturing. ...

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The Opinion given by the US Supreme Court shows the thinking behind its decision to call Affirmative Action or race based admissions by colleges unconstitutional, as violating the Fourteenth Amendment Equal Protection Clause. Because the respondents (Harvard College) use of race involves stereotyping and negative criteria the Court declared it invalidated. "It unduly harms non-minority interests," not permissible when all citizens are equal regardless of race or color. Proposed by Congress and ratified by the States the Fourteenth Amendment provides that no State shall "deny to any person.... the equal protection of the laws." Proponents of that law describing as the "foundational principle" as "not permitting any distinctions of law based on race or color." As WSJ shows today there are three times as many White as Black or Hispanic families in California making below $50,000 a year.  "That the law shall be the same for the black as well as the white, that all persons shall stand equal before the laws of the States." It was a blot on the face of America that this allowed racially segregated schools till this was changed, says the Supreme Court. It calls the Bakke decision to allow race based admissions as a deeply splintered decision and Judge Powell writing for himself allowed it only to allow the educational benefits that flow from a diverse student body. The decisions in Grutter stated that in 25 years this race based admissions should end and in no way can it be used for stereotyping or as a negative- to discriminate against those racial groups that were not the beneficiaries of the preference. A university's use of race could not be used to "unduly harm non-minority interests." It also means engaging in stereotyping- "a demeaning assumption that students of a particular race think alike."  ...

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The risks of a new arms race are growing as the 1987 Missile Treaty between Russia and U.S. signed by Reagan and Gorbachev is now in danger of collapse. The U.S. announced a withdrawal over 6 months if Russian violations are not corrected.

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Watervliet Arsenal in New York state opened during the War of 1812. It is now being revived for manufacturing in the digital age. It turns out components for Abrams tanks. Watervliet is rare says WSJ as an army operated industrial manufacturing location under Tacom.

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Mann Ki Baat June 2026 Visions of Milkha Singh- India in the 100 Meters, 200 Meters, 500 Meters, Modi talks to Indian Athletes, Gurindervir Singh and Animesh Kujur. Gurindervir Singh is from a family with father and grandfather in sports from the 1950's. He is India's fastest athlete in the 100 meters. Here he talks to Modi about his experiences competing in Indian athletics. He is part of the Indian Navy. One of the things he had to overcome is the sentiment that Indians could not compete with world class athletes like Roger Bannister in the sprint and fast running. He hope to dispel this sentiment. He is also a reminder of the achievements of Milkha Singh from his community in the Rome Olympics in 1960 where he came in 4th. Milkha Singh(known in India as the Flying Sikh) won the gold medal in 1958 and in 1962 at the Asian Games in the 200 meters and 400 meters races and the 4x400 Meters relay. He was part of the Indian Army. Kishane Thompson is one of the fastest sprinters under 10 seconds for 100 meters with most of the sprinters in top ten worldwide from the US or Jamaica. A whole new world is opening up in athletics in India with building of world class facilities, gyms, government support for athletes, and social recognition of the importance of athletics and sports. This extends to women's sports and the pesonal support to women's sports is well known throughout India from the prime minister. One of the aspects of running in Kenya, and Jamaica, is the hard scrabble conditions, which Indian athletes including Milkha Singh experienced, people from all parts of the country, without the necessary resources are also competing in sports in India in 2026. ...

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India food supply distribution network involves farmers selling to wholesalers who sell to retailers with about 12.8 million small retailers with shops reaching consumers. Millions of farmers with small plots need workers to harvest their crops. Mechanization of farms is not as widespread as needed, and labour is used instead of forklift trucks in handling of agricultural produce to be loaded onto trucks. And millions of these retailers need workers to pickup the food supplies (wheat, rice, pulse and vegetables). The virus has scared off a lot of laborers needed for this supply system to work from farms to shops. The government is maintaining the basic supplies of wheat, rice and pulses at this time. It has given free rice and wheat where needed and distributed wheat and rice at minimal cost to the public. Yet the system is facing bottlenecks of labor and more needs to be done to maintain smooth flow of supplies. The mechanization of agriculture and distribution is sorely lacking at this time.     ...

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This WSJ editorial is critical of Donald Trump's statements that it is fine if South Korea and Japan develop nuclear weapons, as this only sets up a nuclear arms race with China, and would upset the peace in East Asia that was maintained for decades with the American nuclear umbrella for both nations. It also points to Mr Trump's singular lack of the facts that Japan pays $2 billion and South Korea $900 million for the U.S. to station the modest level of troops and bases it has in the two countries. Mr. Trump's lack of grasp of the larger issues and lack of knowledge of facts is a problem in the campaign, but never so greatly as it is in issues relating to nuclear weapons and proliferation.

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The purchase of F/A-18 aircraft by Germany capable of delivering nuclear weapons stationed in Germany is critical to keeping the nuclear deterrance and the "nuclear sharing" agreement with the U.S. Older aircraft, the Tornadoes are now 40 years old. Chancellor Merkel has supported the purchase but this is now being called into question by its junior partner in the coalition government the SPD.  Leaders of the SPD party say they would block the purchase of 45 Boeing Company made F/A-18 jets proposed by Merkel's defense minister. Under NATO's nuclear sharing agreement going back to the 1950's it is believed there are about 180 B61 tactical nuclear bombs in rope, some 20 in Germany and spread out over Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey. President Trump has said the U.S. will withdraw from a treaty with Russia that limits the presence of nuclear missiles in Europe because Russia is not living up to the agreement. This could lead to an arms race. The issue is leading to the beginning of a fundamental debate about nuclear armanent and military spending of a type that has not happened in Europe since 1982 when a rebellion in the SPD over the stationing of nuclear weapons in Europe led to the ouster of Chancellor Helmut Schmidt.  The Christian Democrats view the purchase of the F/A-18 at a time when Russia is updating its nuclear deterrance as fundamental to NATO and nuclear sharing. The SPD's leaders say nuclear sharing does not mean the need to host nuclear weapons, and give the example of Canada, a NATO ally that does not have U.S. weapons on its soil. ...

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Jean Raspail is the French author  of "Camp of the Saints" and of "Me Antoine de Tounens King of Patagonia," winner Grand Prize of the Novel 1981 Academie Francaise. Written by Raspail, the son of the Founder of Le Figaro French newspaper in 1973, Camp of the Saints is a book describing Raspail's extraordinary vision of how boats from Bengal would suddenly appear at French shores carrying millions of people from Bengal fleeing conditions of squalor and extreme poverty. 1971 was the year of the Bangladesh war with millions of refugees from Bangladesh at the time called East Pakistan pouring into India from Bangladesh, hit by massive floods the year prior, and then facing an army of occupation from West Pakistan's Punjab ethnic group dominated Army. While calling Raspail's Camp of the Saints "openly racist" Le Monde does not show the events described here as being entirely real- the squalid and the squalor into which Bengal had been plunged by a over a century of British rule in India that as Gandhi showed in the 1920's in "Young India" magazine spent most of the budget on policing, and very little on development except rail for logistics to hold the Empire together. On this the French Left or French Right or the European Left or Right is silent, preferring not to open up the similar situation facing China Hongkong, Shanghai as Treaty ports and Beijing after the Boxer rebellion, the Middle East with Sykes and Picot creating artificial states of Syria and Iraq, and controlling states of Iran and Egypt, and Indochina as French colony. It is not "racist" it only shows what Raspail might have seen on television at that time of the truly squalid conditions, including a famine in Bengal in 1944 that was aggravated by British policies. If Raspail imagined that boats from Bengal would arrive at the shores of France it is not something that is not connected to reality, it is the squalor and squalid conditions- except the reality the so called Right and the Left failed to say was a result of the centuries of colonization that made the region miss the Industrial Revolution. Western India around Bombay and Ahmedabad was far more developed by the 1970's and more so by 2003 when Camp of the Saints was republished. In 2026 Camp of the Saints is outdated. Northern India, Western India and Central India is in the kind of rapid modernization that happened in China, with bullet trains, ports and new highways, new industrial infrastructure, housing, going up every year under the Modi Government. In the paradox of today the Modi government is referred to as racist or religious right without reference to its essential condition, its very spirit of modernization based on science and technology acknowledging and revering the contributions of European nations and America. Bangladesh is eastern Muslim part of Bengal. West Bengal is part of the federal Union of Indian States, and has fallen into disrepair and industrial backwardness within Indian states because of the lack of the rapid modernization that India is going through, under mismanagement of the scale of Venezuela. Much of the media in the west does not report the scale of the mismanagement of some of the states in India that were built on the legacy of the early decades after independence of policy to slow down industrialization and corruption that destroyed infrastructure investment. The federal government of India and the states run by the party at the federal level in northern, western, central and north eastern India oppose migration to the US and Europe and are now growing at the fastest pace in the world, faster than China, growing at 10-12 percent a year. Bihar state in India is the home of Lord Buddha and the origins of Buddhist civilization of China and Japan. It has a population of 130 million and is growing at 22% a year in 2026. India needs its young people at home, even though it is willing to loan some of its technical people to Germany and Europe and the US. The Indian federal government policy and policy of these Indian states run under federal policy is to oppose migration and find jobs for millions in a rapidly modernizing economy at home. This then is the reality in India, as well as China, with 2.8 billion people. No one in India, not Gandhi if he were here today, not the government in the Indian federal union and states faults Raspail and others and calls them "racist," because of the extraordinary help first Japan, then China and now India receives from America and the European Union to develop and modernize quickly. In fact Indians look with admiration on the western leaders in science and technology, the scientists and inventors of Europe and the US, and are eager to emulate them in the future. And this is true also of the people of China, and reflects the aspirations of the new generation. ...

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The nuclear arms race between Russia, China and the U.S. accelerates in 2016, as the arms control effort suffers a setback with poor relations between the U.S. and Russia, and China's bid to build up its nuclear weapons. This makes the world a more dangerous place, and puts at risk the gains made in the early years of the Obama administration with the SALT arms control negotiations and treaties in 2010-2011.

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The high risk of failure as the U.S. withdraws from Afghanistan in 2012-2013. The U.S. is handing over to an Afghan Army that faces a high desertion rate, high turnover, and uncertain loyalties. The turnover is so high that the Afghan Army has to replace a third of the 195,000 army every year. The problems from the corruption in the Karzai government, the flawed elections, and other issues have not been resolved, leaving a fragile government and a fragile army and police force as the U.S. withdraws. A decade of sacrifices in resources, lives and wounded, is at risk. A negotiated settlement in talks with the Taliban has not moved forward to create a post U.S. withdrawal Afghan government that brings in all parties. The untimely death of American diplomat Holbrooke who set up the accord that made peace in the Balkans, and the failure to get results at the talks only leaves the whole U.S. project at risk.

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Benedict Carey provides this fascinating account of one woman's experience in the U.S. Army's mission in Afghanistan. Lieutenant Courtney Wilson served in Kandahar in 2010 and experienced many of the stresses women face to a larger degree than men integrating into what is for the dominant part a male focussed culture. This is increasingly important as women now form about 15% of the force in Afghanistan and Iraq, and are likely to be an even larger part in the future tech driven force. With fewer women in the force Wilson had less opportunity to interact with women, and like other women in the army she felt the emotional bonding that men have with other men in the army is something they lack. Like women in male professions, and men at the margins of the dominant culture in other fields, women feel a higher level of psychic stress.

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The Indian prime minister has ordered that a million job vacancies be filled in the next 18 months. About 21% of job openings in the Central government have not been filled says this report in The Indian Express. According to the Annual Report of the Department of Expenditure 21.75% of the 4.1 million sanctioned posts were vacant as of March 1, 2020. It is these and other additional jobs that will be filled in mission mode. Jobs are vacant at all levels of the different departments and ministries and regions.  About 92% of the positions are in the departments of Railways with 40%, Home Affairs with 30%, Civil Defense 11%, Postal 6% and Revenue 3%. Of the employees Indian Railways had 1.25 million on March 1, 2020, and 1.20 employees on March 1, 2022. The pandemic had the effect of restricting hiring of people needed. With the expansion of the economy the hiring for government has not kept pace. In the Armed Forces, for the Army no hiring took place in 2020 and 2021 recruitment years says this report in Indian Express.  There are calls at public meetings including at Defense Minister Rajnath Singh's rallies for "sena bharti chalu karo" to start recruitment drives for the army, navy and air force. The government is responding to the public's demand for recruitment to begin as the needs of the government grow and the economy grows, to keep pace with it. ...

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Social and economic changes in American society have come down to an alarming statistic. There are three young women for every two young men in American colleges. At Tulane the freshman class has two thirds women students. At liberal arts colleges the class is usually 60% women. As noted in this report by Susan Dominus in NYT there is a devaluing of college education because men have choices that are higher paying, conservatives have not emphasized college education, and "male drift" is a serious problem leading to male enrolment declining. And once in college men are dropping out at afaster rate. All this adds up to a serious problem in America, one that the Biden administration has to take seriously as it looks at rebuilding not just the economy, but also the education system that supports the US economy in the world.

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The situation in farms and orchards in the U.S. as growers face shortages of labor to pick vegetable and fruit produce. A special visa program provides U.S. farms for vegetable and fruit produce with agricultural workers from Mexico. In 2019 this program brought in about 268,000 agricultural workers from Mexico.This report looks at the effort of companies to ensure that agricultural workers are well taken care of. This includes delivery of groceries to limit trips to nearby towns, offering food trucks with prepared meals. Problems of overcrowded housing and lack of access to health care are problems that are being tackled. Some companies are reconfiguring field work for health safety, and funding overtime work at local health clinics.

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Lifespan, Healthspan, Wealthspan, how about Mattering Span or Not Losing Purpose in Retirement? It is always on the mind of retirees how to do things to not lose the activity and sense of purpose in life. Much needs to be done to get retirees back into life, into participation in the economic life of the Nation. With so much knowledge and expertise, and the capital in trillions of dollars, this is apart of the population that has so much to offer and so much that can further advance the Nation in fields of education, health, the arts, culture, sports. With a slightly slower pace than youngsters, this group brings so much of value- knowledge and wisdom that can be tapped into at all levels of business activity with new ways and approaches to involvement.

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Heidi Vogt provides this exceptional account on the U.S. and international efort to build Liberia's healthcare system from scratch. Years of civil war till 2003 and the shortage of funds mean that even basic equipment such as X ray machines and blood testing equipment are lacking in Liberian hospitals. Even with a effort that includes the U.S. Army and Air Force planes, a 25 bed hospital for healthcare workers using tents will take till early November to be operational. Showing that the response is sorely inadequate here in Liberia leading to the spread of Ebola to Europe and the U.S. by December at the current pace. Liberia's head of Ebola control says the international community has failed Liberia with its inadequate response. For the U.S. and Europe an inadequate response creates new dangers as the public has lost confidence in government response.

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This piece in Der Spiegel points out that Brexit may be an opportunity if European leaders recognize that there can be different levels of unity, and that different countries in the EU can advance at their own pace with Germany and France providing a core group. There is no longer the need for continual enlargement of the European Union as has happened before. It also offers a time to take some deep breaths and reflect on the progress so far and where it has come short, what to do about it, such as the bureaucracy that has grown in Brussels, the different views on immigration, and public sentiment. Actually the whole progress towards the European Community, and then the European Union has evolved over time. In the immediate postwar years, after one setback Adenauer once said during the difficult negotiations in 1951-52 between France and Germany to set up the European Coal and Steel Community, predecessor of the European Community and the European Union- "arme Europa, arme Europa," (poor Europe, poor Europe). The Dutch and Belgian delegates had strong differences for the headquarters for the ECSC- Turin was rejected, Liege and Brussels were proposed, until Monnet was made head of the High Authority of the European Coal and Steel Community with headquarters in Luxembourg. Monnet himself considered stepping down a couple of times because of differences, and the Editor of Le Monde described Monnet's plans for European integration as "a leap in the dark." This was the first of many difficult steps in the evolution of the European Union. Nationalist feeling was nothing new, as the Gaullists opposed Monnet's drive for European unity when it differed from their ideas. Still Monnet persevered and progress took place every ten years as it must now.  ...

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Rupert Murdoch brought positive changes as shown here to introduce electronic printing technologies to the newspaper business in 1981 the year Reagan became president. Yet there are questions why others across the news operations did not take this up as it would make sense to adopt new technologies. Why was there no competition? This led to The Times being acquired for $28 million in 1981 compared to the $5 billion paid for The Wall Street Journal in 2007- enormous difference as monopolistic/oligopolistic behaviour has become entrenched in shaping public perceptions and policy. Why for instance is not taking climate change action in the face of fires/floods or not taking action to invest hugely in infrastructure for a dilapidated USA become seen as acceptable in for 2024-2030-even as the European Union aims to be fossil free by 2030?

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Japan's economy minister, Yasutoshi Nishimura, says Japan is suffering an output loss of $300 billion. Japan has recovered halfway from the pandemic. It will take till 2014 to recover fully. In the July to September quarter the Japanese economy grew at an annualized pace of 21%, yet the economy is 6% smaller than in 2019.

The government is preparing an economic stimulus package of $100 billion in new spending. A planned cash give out of $500 a person following a cash give out of $1000 during the first wave of coronavirus is included. The government is planning public works projects to boost the economy, as capital investment has fallen. The second wave of the coronavirus is creating more uncertainty. Prime minister Suga aims to keep the focus on the long term with two key priorities, Japan's digital transition and making Japan carbon neutral by 2050.