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Saudi Vision 2030 goals scaled back in 2026 as Saudis and UAE face missile attacks on oil facilities and pipelines. Saudis and UAE, Iraq are working on building new pipelines on east west coasts to bypass Hormuz Straits. Oil could go through to Turkey or Jordan. 

Another key development is the realization in India, China and European Union that renewable energy goals need to be accelerated. This is a positive development coming out of this crisis and will shift the energy equation entirely out of the Middle East. At the same time it reduces the impact of climate change, accelerates the development of renewables technologies.

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China's 15th Five Year Plan with shift to robotics, semiconductors, EV's, renewable energy, and lower investment in education, healthcare- the shift to a slowing economy, job losses. GDP per capita one third of the US much lower than most of southern Europe or Eastern Europe. China is still a middle income country. Unlike Japan which surpassed most of EU countries  GDP per capita, China with 1.4 billion people is a vast country. The shift in the emphasis in the 5 year Plan means economic growth  of 10-12% is now only 5%. With the collapse in housing construction and slowing manufacturing facing tariffs in the US means job losses.

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DJT and Xi of China agree that Hormuz Straits should not be controlled by Iran, and no tolls for passage through Hormuz on ships to be paid to Iran. Thedse are points of agreement with China at the summit between Xi and DJT in Beijing  May 14 2026. It is certain that Xi of China is also for no proliferation of nuclear weapons in the Middle East. China has to manage relations in the Middle East by considering the Arab  states of North Africa with whom it has good relations and their point of view- these countries are- Egypt, Moroccco, Tunisia, Algeria, UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia. China gets its oil from both Iran and these Arab states. In a larger sense both the US and China are looking for alternative sources of oil after this episode of conflict in the Middle East one of a long series of events since the 1970's for 5 decades.  China and the US, India, EU are looking at this episode as a point from where a new renewed effort is being launched to replace fossil with renewable energy, be able to generate more GNP with fewer oil and energy resources. ...

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At a glance see on a world map with colors which countries have accomplished the transition to renewable so as not to get caught in the quagmire of the Middle East for oil supplies- most of Europe has done very well, and the laggards- Asia from China and India that are making an effort to Japan which has a poor dismal record. Brazil Uruguay 90% Denmark 80% Canada 66% Germany Spain and Finland 50% UK 46% Italy 42%  France 27%- share of renewables in electricity production (2023). This means much of the world is not dependent on volatile energy supplies from the Middle East. It is only in China, India, Japan, South Korea that dependence is high on Middle East. And in China and India this is the time to focus again on renewables. Most baffling is Japan with only 23% and it is the country that has so much of its supplies flowing through the Persian Gulf volatile oil lane- when Europe has moved on and accomplished the task of avoiding volatile Gulf region.

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This DD India video shows the prime ministers of all the Nordic Nations in meetings with prime minster Modi of India- the prime ministers of Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland, Iceland. India has strengthened relations on 3 levels - the bilateral, Nordics as a group, Nordics as part of European Union, for close understanding and close cooperation over the next 15 years. Norway has a plan for 15 year collaboration with India in a range of fields including for its Sovereign Fund. It is now at the level of a new Green and Strategic Partnership that shares close goals and a common spirit. The PM of India used the word "sambandh", and the PM of Iceland brought this up as a spiritual basis of the cooperation that was the main and common feeling bringing these nations of Northern Europe into a spiritual bonding with India over the next 15 years around shared values of democracy, rules based order, and rule of law, everything that India treasures in Western civilization and Europe in Indian civilization. The relationship is shared across all fields including scientific and technological cooperation, education, space, agriculture and fisheries, industry, renewable energy, defense, other fields. ...

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  US reaches agreement that would restore oil supplies and bring down oil prices. The supply chains may have to be reconstituted for replacing much of the 20% of the oil that flows through Hormuz if the US, Europe,China and India, Japan, rest of the world are to gain from this experience. The only way to understand the change of mind of the DJT US government and the Saudis/UAE/Qatar for bringing an end to the war without immediately fulfilling required nuclear conditions is from the Saudi point of view it has sought to avoid damage to its oil facilities from Iranian drone and missile attacks. From the US point of view it may see that the US + ramped up Venezuelan production by 2027-2028 with increased push for supplies in other parts of the world with better security than Hormuz, could make up for most of the loss in supply from Hormuz. For the remainder acceleration of the renewal energy in Europe and in China, India could reduce dependence on oil from Saudis/Iran.  US Energy Information Administration forecast is for oil prices currently $103 for Brent crude oil to stabilize at $89 at the end of 2026 and $79 in 2027. The year started in 2026 at $60 per barrel. The UAE oil agency ADNOC says it would take 4 months to get 80% of production back on stream and full flows by 1st quarter 2027. Rystad Energy estimates repair and restoration at oil facilities to cost $58 billion. The MAGA base which opposed wars by Bush and Obama in the region would then look at it this way. The billions that Obama poured into Iran for Iran to rebuild its nuclear program would not happen again, as the US would continue its sanctions till all nuclear materials are removed from Iran. Iran would stall in negotiations that are now put off with only a Memorandum to show for commitment of Iran- though an agreement would only be a piece of paper that Iran may not implement as the failed Obama agreement showed- but yet not have the billions of dollars to support its nuclear program. It would give the US, Israel, and the world 10-15 years in which to respond to another nuclear program by Iran. Iran will need $270 billion to repair the damage to industrial facilities, which shows the cost of the war for the Iranian people just to get a nuclear weapon is prohibitive, considering that the Iranian economy was already in trouble before the war. Inflation and the overall economy will be in difficult shape for many years. Public sentiment in Iran may change the future course of Iran away from the course currently pursued. The entire Middle East  region has not benefitted from its dependence on oil. For the rest of the world finding alternative sources of supply is the best way and EU, China, India should accelerate renewable technologies and goals for energy independence shortening the transition from fossil fuels. ...

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Mediators Pakistan, Turkey sought to separate Iranian nuclear issue to a second stage with a vague Iranian commitment to discuss the issue and future dragging of feet by Iran. The US DJT administration has made this the only issue that must be settled first before a settlement can be reached, and not by a repeat of the half hearted effort by the Obama administration that led to reconstituting Iran's nuclear effort a second time with US financial assistance. For a day on Saturday it appeared that mediators Pakistan and Turkey had accomplished for Iran just that, to the alarm of Republicans in general and in particular senior Senator Graham. Many sections of the media including the WSJ and the business community, see this as a repetition of the mistakes made by Obama and his administration. Not only did Obama not act to work with Republicans on a border policy- simply protecting himself from Republican attack by deportation policies. Obama continued the war in Afghanistan/Iraq for the same reason to protect his chances for reelection. He also used immigration policy to get the Hispanic vote in the closing months of the reelection year. Obama's other foreign policy failure was in believing Iran had been persuaded to give up nuclear weapons, and gave Iran the financial backing that could easily be shifted from economic to military uses and rebuild the nuclear program,  which he has handed to a future Republican adminstration. Obama also ignored how this would affect the economic wellbeing of the Iranian people with the kind of protests and suppression that has happened in 2026. Democrats and the media, some Republicans, are simply ignoring these errors and have never really faced up to the problems in the Middle East and asked the question why there are 5 decades of wars in the Middle East, and coups, strife, wars for the entire period since 1950. In this situation the US, China, India, EU, Brazil and other nations can learn from this experience and act to secure alternative sources of energy, speed up renewable energy transition, and rapidly end all dependence/intervention on a perpetually strife ridden Middle East, which much of the US and international media in a baffling way ignores or does not say outright. ...

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This report on Danish wind energy company Orsted, looks at the journey of the largest developer of wind energy in the world from a company sending natural gas from North Sea to Europe to a joint developer with Denmark's Vestas of offshore wind farms. Last year Orsted, pronounced Ehrr-sted in Danish for the O and named after a Danish scientist, decided to invest $57 billion in offshore wind farms by 2027. It was not easy and the path required a bold vision and bold action to invest in wind energy for the long term even as debt piled up from losses in natural gas competing with coal, climate change committments were not yet strong, subsidies were required to make wind energy competitive, and debt was piling up. It would take a decade of hard work and technological innovation to produce wind energy that could outcompete coal and natural gas on cost without subsidies. The year is 2009 with the Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen. The predecessor company to Orsted was losing money in natural gas with lower cost coal energy generation in Europe at the time. Yet the mood was changing governments were willing to invest in renewables. In 2012 a new CEO Paulsen did a review of 12 businesses of this Danish energy company and decided wind energy was the only one with long term prospects. The Copenhagen Climate Change Conference created new awareness for the need to come up with a long term solution for energy that has no negative health effects and is renewable. That Conference set a goal of 20% for renewable energy by 2020 in the total mix for Europe up from 14%. Paulsen saw an opportunity in the crisis at the company then called Danish Oil and Natural Gas. The new company was called Orsted and the old divisions in fossil energy were sold to invest in wind farms offshore. The way Paulsen saw the situation was that the company had to take radical action whether it wanted to do so or not. By 2012 Danish pension funds were investing in large offshore wind farms of Orsted, taking a stake of as much as 50% in the Nysted wind farm. The Danish government which owned 80% of Orsted thought its projects were risky. Hard work with Vestas which builds the turbines in Denmark paid off in developing a huge new turbine that would bring costs down 65% comparing 2020 with 2012.  In 2018 the European Union was spending about 92 billion euros or $112 billion on energy subsidies including to wind farms. Britain also heavily subsidized offshore wind farms such as Hornsea 1 at about $198 a megawatt hour for 15 years double the electricity price in recent years. Windy conditions and shallow waters in the North Sea were favorable. Technology was being developed with Vestas which would reduce the cost each year. By 2016 Orsted was listed in Copenhagen. The remaining oil and gas business was then sold for $1 billion. The returns are less in wind than coal and natural gas- about 7-8% a year but the big thing is that there is certainty in this compared to coal and natural gas which are volatile and uncertain. The lesson companies are learning in renewables is that with solar and wind technology can. bring down costs, a lot of hard work and creative work lies ahead, that crisis can be turned into opportunity for companies that can be focussed enough to produce results. ...

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A lead researcher at Stanford and UC Berkeley says he hasn't seen anything like it, the opposition intensify so quickly. 70% of Democrats and 50% of Republicans oppose overinvestment in AI  and increasing in sentiment- not about stopping progress but  about stopping hyperlevel investment of trillions of dollars and diverting from reindustrialization/infrastructure for US that creates jobs and a better qualityof life. In today's world neither China or the US can afford hyper investment, most Asian countries would prefer to let the US do it and later get that technology for free one way or the other. Therefore this means the American people are being hoodwinked- they pay the price when their bridges and roads, airports are in disrepair, when even a national network of data charging stations could not get funded under Biden which would have addressed the biggest problem for transition from fossil through EV's to fight climate change.  The investment community is being hoodwinked. Investors are being hoodwinked as the returns are uncertain and cannot be justified on financial grounds- only by hype.  Polls only ask about AI not the hyperinvestment in AI. If the truth is known that these trillions of dollars diverted by using flaws in capital markets in the US, avoiding financial scrutiny and hyping up AI when returns are by a long shot uncertain compared to rebuilding America's infrastructure and industries to compete with China and the EU- that is desperately needed- then these numbers would show the vast majority of Americans oppose this diversion of funds from the infrastructure and reindustrialization that create jobs that support working families. Take for example Texas, a Republican state, where the Agriculture Commissioner is calling for a moratorium on new hyperscale data center development in the state, citing higher costs for farmers, and strains on the power grid. It is not about stopping progress. Fon transition to renewable energy or example the adjustments made by Biden and Democrats allowed some fossil fuels use to make the transition, the same policy being pursued under different political slogans and labels under DJT. It is not about stopping progress as progress continues even under DJT Republican administration - natural gas prices and coal use prices are making natural gas a choice for power plants, the cost of oil at $100 making EV's hybrids cost less than gasoline cars. AI technologies will advance, and the wherewithal, the framework in which AI should operate can be built alongside without throwing everything out of balance. Throwing the whole economy out of balance, destroying the chance to create jobs and bring about the 1st priority of America and EU- reindustrialization and infrastructure renewal alongside India's modernization. That requires these trillions of dollars being pushed into AI by a few self-interested individuals without returns, and trillions of dollars more. If that is accomplished any challenges from China will fade in comparison with the scale of the effort in the EU, the US, and India with the largest industrial bloc in the world far bigger than China. This is not mere words. It is a plan of action that is being put into place right now at Oslo, Norway at the Nordic+EU Summit with India on the next phase of this effort, put into place piece by piece through hard work and a clear vision for the future. ...

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How to get smaller supply chain companies with less than investment grade ratings to shift to renewable energy contracts that last 5-10 years when banks have strict lending criteria. Walmart has a solution working with Schneider Electric. Consider that companies are tackling emissions across their entire supply chain. For Walmart this means cutting one billion metric tons of emissions by 2030. Under Gigaton PPA Walmart suppliers can form a group to buy energy. So that Amy's Kitchen, Great lakes Cheese, and Levi Strauss collectively purchased a12 year renewable energy purchase agreement  from a wind farm in Kansas operated by Danish energy company Orsted. Energize is a similar program funded by drug companies Pfizer, Biogen and others for their supply chain and delivered by Schneider Electric. Consider that for Microsoft's 13 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions, 96% come from the supply chain. It needs to cut emissions by half by 2030, a big challenge. In the European Union the solution being considered is for the European Commission to offer state backed and market backed guarantees for deals. Guarantees would be offered by member states of the EU or banks and insurers to provide backing for purchase agreements buyers to overcome credit constraints. ...

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Adani Group plans to invest $20 billion in renewable energy over 10 years. Modi has set a goal of 450 gigawatts for India. 

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Renewable energy will get a big boost after the Ukraine war but there will be a period of transition during which more fossil fuels are produced in the US, Qatar and other parts of the Middle East to meet demand in Europe in 2022. Europe is working to develop alternative supplies of energy in an effort to move away from dependence on Russian energy.

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France has renewable energy potential for wind farms that is similar to Britain with its long coastline. The Saint Nazaire wind farm with 80 turbines opens on the Atlantic coast with president Macron saying it is time to go twice as fast as other countries in Europe. France gets only 7% of its energy from wind compared to 22% for the UK, 23% for Germany and 44% for Denmark.  Saint Naziare wind farm took 10 years after protests from environmentalists, fishermen and other groups. France is looking at diversifying its energy capabilities so that it is not too dependent on nuclear energy. Macron says- "Our neighbors are going twice as fast. we have to get rid of the legal disputes and the delaying tactics."

Three wind farms will come on stream in months in Normandy and Brittany. A floating wind farm is proposed for the Mediterranean. Macron wants to see more nuclear reactors. He also says the key to better energy supply is diversification.

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Privatization of the oil sector and corruption is leading to a new policy of president Lopez Obrador to restore the oil sector to government ownership. Obrador sees this as a priority and says it will take time for Mexico to switch to renewable energy, with the priority being self sufficiency in energy using fossil fuels at this time.

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The UK is drasticall falling behind in renewable energy and on its meeting its commitment to the Paris Accords after failure to act on the part of Tory prime minister Sunak. It will have to ramp up action under Labour. The Climate Change Committee annual report to parliament shows Sunak approved projects would only meet one third of the emissions cuts Britain promised to cut emissions by 68% by 2030. Labour has approved three giant solar farms. This will not be enough as a five fold increase in installations is needed for solar.

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What is California's position in nuclear and renewables and does the substance the facts justify the image it promotes of being energy friendly and using renewables? Answer is NO  because only 9% of its total end use energy consumption according to EIA figures (2023) comes from renewables. It uses no coal yet about 60% of its energy is from crude oil. During the current crisis in the war with Iran is California an example to follow? The answer is No because it has not used renewable energy the way Germany has or EU has, and it has not managed its crude oil well by not using domestic crude oil instead relying on imports, which only burden the global needs for crude oil coming from a state with capacity to do lot better. By comparison Germany gets 23% of its total energy consumption from renewables compared to 9% for California, and for Germany 60% of its total electricity production is from renewables compared to 46% for California. EIA data shown here from US government data does not paint a very energy friendly picture. California's imports of crude oil at 75% of consumption and drop in refineries from 48 to 3 shows it has not managed the oil refining side of energy in the best way possible. How does it rate in making good use of energy? Here it uses 174 million BTU's per capita no different than New York at 174 and about the same as Florida and Washington DC, Massachusetts, Maryland.  And Germany has achieved 122 million BTU per capita showing California far behind. How does it rate in using renewables and nuclear? As it is a state with urban and suburban sprawl with large driving distances it uses a lot of crude oil for transportation. Petroleum or crude oil use is 58% of total energy use, Natural gas 25, Renewables are only 3%, electricity generation is 14% of which only 46% is from renewables. California is NOT the model for the US. We have to look elsewhere for answers.   ...

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The Modi administration's plans for clean solar energy and renewable energy production to reach 220 gigawatts by 2022, nearly doubling the capacity in 2 years from 135 gigawatts today. The message was conveyed at the inaugural address for the recent World Solar Technology Summit by the prime minister. The premier said that ISA is part of the "One World, One Sun, One Grid" project, which would be transformational for humanity.

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Bhupinder Bhalla, the Secretary, Ministry for Renewable Energy in India, talks to The Hindu's Jacob Koshy about India's plans for solar panel manufacturing. He says a key bottleneck is reliance on Chinese made components such as poly-silicone wafers. Manufacturing these components in India is key for the health of the solar ecosystem in India. Once this is established- and Bhalla goes over the action being taken- India will be able to export solar panels by 2026. He expects 40GW to be fully commissioned in the next 2 years.

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Prof. Patrice Geoffron of Universite Paris-Dauphine writes in Le Monde what is on everyone's minds- on how oil geopolitics and fossil fuel price volatility and price uncertainty what he calls fossil fuel chaos, is creating a new demand for renewable energy in Europe in 2027 to 2031. Business and industry in Europe see the value of renewable energy not in comparison with low fossil fuel prices anymore but with a fossil fuel price that can jump at any time to the $100 a barrel for some geopolitical event. Compared to this fossil chaos European business and industry can depend on a known price and known conditions for solar energy. The same thinking will be going on in business in Asia- in China and established leader in solar, in India an aspiring solar power, and in Japan. Modular nuclear reactors are also a new way to go. This means even under DJT with his skepticism for renewables the technology and production of renewables will continue and pick up pace. People will also ask whether its worth all the trouble to get fossil fuel supplies at levels that make no sense through waters of Hormuz straits- China and Jpan getting a makes no sense 90% of their imports from Hormuz, and India nearly 50%. Their are moral considerations also whether a morally conscious China, Japan and India, South Korea with much of the industrial base in the world can justify missile attacks on the scale of tens of thousands in the region and bombing just to clear Hormuz. ...

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It might not all make sense that the Pakistan/China mediated ceasefire conditions (including US and Israeli condition of no nuclear weapons development and ballistic missile development) are really not known even in the media today, only known to the Iranian government and the US government. In these conditions Iran's government gets to show that it had achieved its goals, even with enormous reconstruction costs of the damage done during the war. DJT had pointed to a sort of regime change in Iran after most of the earlier leadership has been removed, and new leaders in place who are keen on setting up conditions for their own administration replacing the old one.  Over the period 2027-2030 the prospect is real that China, India and Japan may shift their oil supplies sources to other regions, increase conservation per unit of GDP, and increase supplies of renewable energy, steps already taken by Germany over the last decade. Most media looks only what happens today and in 2026. This may be the last of the Middle East Wars before Europe and the US, and India, China, Japan shift away from the Middle East to get supplies of fossil fuels, and it may bring new renewables technologies that reduce the dependence on fossil fuels to the point of making a true transition to renewable energy. It may also be the last of the Middle East Wars in the sense that people of European nations and the US insist on no involvement in MIddle East as a sort of quagmire for squandering American, European and Asian vital resources of people and capital, ample example being given over the last 40 years. Considering the costs of the war and the moral cost of destroying infrastructure such as power plants that hurt the local population more than the regime in power, China, Japan, the US, and EU, India may find it is easier to race each other in coming up with alternative supplies and shifting to renewable energy faster than planned, making Middle Eastern oil supplies  and volatility in prices redundant, which would be a good thing after the hugely negative and costly experience of the last 50 years of dependence.     ...

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This editorial in the NYT says 80% of the environmental benefits of electrification will be lost if the building of new power lines is not accelerated. Without new power lines much of the electricity will be still dependent on fossil fuels.

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Rugged hilly coast and shallow narrow straits - problems for Straits of Hormuz shipping is shown in the NYT following similar reports in WSJ. It will cost $200 billion for the munitions supplies and interceptors, and US naval operations, French naval operations to keep the Straits of Hormuz open, which is supported by US business as is seen in opinion in Editorial Board of WSJ on March 24, 2026. The Straits are a lifeline for Asia until renewable energy and alternative supplies of oil make the Straits history and a redundant proposition, which will be sooner than later after this episode, one too many more from the Middle East. More likely by 2030-2035. China and Japan depend on it for 90% of imports, and India 50% with alternative supplies provided for India from the US and Russia. Germany is only dependent on the Straits for 6% of its imports showing how far Germany has come and how important renewables and alternative sources of oil such as Venezuela will become in the time ahead, in a two pronged strategy that does not forget the challenges posed by climate from fires and floods. Were not stuck with the Straits- Japan and China can and will find alternative sources and increase production of renewable energy in the way Germany has done to get to 6% of imports from that region. ...