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OECD forecasts show an acceleration of US economic growth in 2021 with the $1.9 trillion aid package of the Biden administration. OECD forecasts show pre-pandemic levels of output reached by mid 2021, 6 months earlier than expected. Global output is expected to grow by 5.6% in 2021, after declining 3.4% in 2020. Main reason- US economy is seen expanding at 6.5%, twice as fast as previously forecast and fastest since 1984. OECD sees the importance of stimulus coinciding with vaccination of the population. The pace in the US with 18 million vaccinated in March and the goal of vaccinating the whole population by May is part of the reason given for the vigorous growth. Astonishingly the OECD sees the US economy larger in end of year 2022 now than it had forecast before the pandemic. For other countries such as India with slower vaccination progress and large population, OECD forecast is for 8% shortfall in growth from what was expected before the pandemic at end of 2022.  This is an amazing bit of good news amid all the dismay and confusion surrounding the coronavirus lockdowns. ...

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The Biden $1.9 trillion aid package that cleared the US Congress on March 10, 2021 sets the stage for an economic rebound by 2022. OECD forecasts now show the US economy by the end of 2022 to be larger than forecast before the pandemic. In trade and other business policy the Biden administration is quietly following the changes made under the Trump administration to make the US position stronger in international trade and manufacturing, and remaking supply chains to meet US interests.

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President Biden gets his $1.9 trillion aid package through the U.S. Congress with 220 votes for and 211 against. All Democrats except one voted in favor and all Republicans voted against. Earlier the $15 minimum wage was dropped from the bill to get it through the Senate. Also kept were income criteria to prevent the $1400 check to individuals in households going to the most affluent income earners. The Senate vote was close - 50 to 49 in a party line vote. The Biden aid package comes on top of earlier aid under president Trump in 2020. This aid is likely to provide enough stimulus to the US economy to restore growth to levels that were there before the pandemic hit.

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A look at graphs showing how much and where the $1.9 trillion aid for the pandemic is going for households, businesses, local governments and programs. This package of aid is ready to pass the US Congress in March 2021.

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 State tax shortfalls in the US were expected as consumer purchases dropped sharply in 2020 from the impact of coronavirus lockdowns. Yet this has not happened as total taxes for all states have remained essentially flat, only down less than 1% in 2020 over 2019. Widespread intervention by the US government helped households, businesses and financial markets, helping avoid the pessimistic projections. Stable employment for the more affluent households with steady jobs working from home brought in stronger tax revenues. The situation improved for most states in the second half of 2020, with roughly half the states taking in more revenue in 2020 than in 2019.  Idaho and Utah which attracted workers from the West Coast, had some of the highest tax revenue increases. The pandemic spared the high income jobs which generate most of the revenue helping to create surpluses in Colorado, Vermont, Georgia, Maine, California, Maryland and Virginia. In California a surge in initial public offerings in 2020 helped total tax revenue increase by 2.5%. Even a state like Illinois had personal tax collections higher in 2020 than 2019. This sets aside some of the fears that the pandemic caused about loss of jobs in state and local governments. With assistance from the Biden administration to state and local governments in the  $1.9 trillion aid package for 2021 this job loss could be restored to aid economic recovery. ...

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US president Biden has asked Democrats to first reach an agreement on a social and climate policy package and only then vote on an infrastructure bill. Republicans have supported investments in infrastructure, but not supported the social and climate policy package. Democrats progressive wing supports infrastructure but only after the social and climate policy package is approved. To pull together the different groups in the Democratic party and win support among some Republicans requires a skillful balancing act bringing in support from all sides in the national interest. The Biden plan for $3.5 trillion for Build Back Better has a$1 billion infrastructure plan, and a plan for workers and families on social issues confronting the country including child care, education, income related to reduce disparities, and healthcare. It also includes investments in green energy so reduce emissions to tackle climate change. Because Democrats have a thin majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives this balancing act will also require Democrats to reduce the size of the package to less than $3.5 trillion bringing in the most essential components for investment in 2021-2022 and making additional investments in the following years. ...

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A $369 billion US climate and tax package being negotiated in the Senate by Senator Schumer could put put Biden within reach of his goal to cut US carbon emissions by 50% by 2030. The package would introduce cash incentives for electric cars and spend billions for renewable energy expansion to get Biden to within reach of his goal by cutting carbon emissions by 40% by 2030.

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Japanese prime minister Kishida joins president Biden in deciding not to run again with low popularity ratings and cost of living concerns of the public. The LDP administration of prime minister Kishida put through a $100 billion investment package to revive the economy in November 2023. In the first quarter of 2024 the Japanese economy GDP growth suffered from a 0.7% decline. Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida of the LDP party popularity has remained at around 25% and Kishida has decided not to run again for prime minister. His term expires in 2025. A new LDP leader will be elected. This report says growing voices in the LDP party persuaded Kishida not to run and have a new leader. Inflation which was tame for over a decade has increased with surging prices for oil and gas after the Ukraine war. The situation is similar to the US and EU where rising prices have hurt ordinary people struggling to make a living. Kishida committed Japan to investing 2% of GDP on defense. The effects of economic developments is that the Japanese currency is weakening. ...

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The aid package in August 2022 from US to Ukraine includes much needed air defense systems and radars that would help protect the cities and towns of Ukraine under constant bombardment leading to endless stream of refugees and displaced women and children. This and the damage to buildings and homes is the worst aspect of the war.

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President Trump has decided to go big with a second aid package for $1.8 trillion in aid. With the second wave of the pandemic here the Trump administration has decided to go ahead with a second major aid effort in October 2020 to help small business, airlines and direct aid of $1200 in checks to families across the U.S.

The increasing number of layoffs and a stalling in further improvements in reducing unemployment in October is showing the need for a second major effort to aid families and small. business.  This will be needed before a vaccine and drug treatment is found by the end of the year.

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This report in WSJ shows that remote work is a lasting trend because companies can now hire talented individuals from anywhere in the country or the world, and pay less for the same talent. In the past talented individuals were attracted with high pay packages to cities such as San Francisco, Seattle, New York, Boston and Los Angeles. Companies can now choose to avoid paying these high pay packages and have a broader talent pool to choose from. This is because these cities became costlier and less attractive with cramped apartments relative to the choices for remote work. In the example cited here a machine learning expert shifted from a small cramped apartment in San Francisco to work for Twitter from a small town named Katy in Texas where she has a 5 bedroom large apartment and a nicer community of 20,000 people to live in west of Houston. One in 8 jobs posted on Linked In as of August 2021 are for remote work, many times the percentage of remote work job postings in 2020, showing this trend is here to stay. There is a large shift of millions of workers in tech related fields exiting the cities of San Francisco, New York, Seattle, and Boston for smaller cities in other parts of the country such as Utah, Texas and other states in the US. A similar trend is observed in Europe. America's professional classes are moving to hybrid or remote work in large numbers says this report in WSJ. At one point in 2020 about 35% of workers in the US or 50 million workers were doing remote work during the lockdowns. In August 2021 this figure is closer to about half of these workers even as workers return to work offices. It is believed that the BLS statistics understate the number of remote workers at 20 million and 14% of workers in August 2021. Large crowded and hugely expensive cities are no longer attractive for employers or for tech employees or professional workers. ...

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The stimulus checks in government pandemic aid packages are being spent prudently in the US. Government aid checks were sent out in the first wave since March 2020 and now again in the second wave in 2021. The stimulus pandemic checks are being allocated wisely. A Federal Reserve Bank of New York study shows that Americans saved about 36% of the first stimulus payment checks, 29% was spent, and 35% was used to pay down debt. For the second stimulus payment underway in 2021 this survey also shows Americans are expected to spend even less and use even more to pay down debts. With stores mostly closed, travel restricted, and consumers not having the opportunities to spend, and the sense of insecurity, additional income from unemployment checks, saving has increased. Americans saved $1.4 trillion in the first 9 months of 2020 compared to half that in the same period in 2019, according to analysis by Berenberg Economics. That amount is about 10% of household spending. The tight spending during 2020 means, say economic researchers, that spending will jump in 2021 after the vaccination drive. The trend is positive in that Americans tended not to save enough. People in China and India, tend to save more giving government a larger pool of savings to draw from in national infrastructure spending. In November 2020 Commerce Department estimate is that saving in the U.S. was 12.9%, up from 7.5% in November 2019. Anecdotal evidence shows U.S. savings accounts for people at the lower end of incomes have been depleted for years, hit by the unemployment of the 2009 recession. This was caused by errors by the banking community and business. To this is added people in arts and culture, people in professions involving contact, travel and leisure, food, during this pandemic ten years later. National priorities need to be set to bolster this part of American society and its core social fabric. The steps to bring home manufacturing jobs under Mr. Trump and the "Buy American" initiative under Mr. Biden is just the first step. More steps are needed and the resources, implementation and drive to bring America back to the healthy society of social cohesion and upward mobility aspirations under presidents Truman and Eisenhower in the 1950's. ...

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Cobalt and nickel mining in the Democratic Republic of Congo is increasingly under the control of a few countries. Much of this metal goes into Electric Vehicles. One expert told a US Senate Committee hearing in June that China was building one EV megafactory a week compared to one every 4 months by the US. The money committed to supporting the electric vehicle industry in Biden's infrastructure package in 2021 still leaves the US lagging behind, says this report in The Guardian.

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China's GDP declines by 6.8% in the first quarter 2020 year over year, and 9.8% from the previous quarter, the first such decline since 1992, even going as far back as 1976 with the passing of the Mao era. It is not power production or coal consumption which have returned to prior levels. It is the demand from the U.S. and Europe, other countries which are in lockdowns. Estimates are that 80 million people in a population of 900 million working age people lost their jobs, with another 10 million expected to be lost, about 10% of the total. Global trade companies are hardest hit.  Consumers inside China are reducing spending. Some are using only the small government issued vouchers designed to get people to go out and spend.  The Trump administration plans to bring back some of the production lost to China in essential areas such as public health and security back to the U.S. The supply chains are already shifting to other countries from U.S. tariffs. As a result some estimates show zero growth in 2020 for China. Financial instability and prior leveraging concerns remain to prevent any serious stimulus. By contrast the U.S. is cushioning the impact with $2 trillion aid package benefitting from a strong dollar and healthy economy before the virus. ...

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A federal committee in the U.S. now recommends no more than 6% of calories come from daily sugar intake not the 10% that is is the current guideline. It is smart to be wary of guidelines set in a different period when Americans and people in other parts of the world were not enough health conscious as they should have been. Artificially high limits set in guidelines serve as a danger to health, particularly as experts say obesity is like pouring gasoline on fire in fighting the coronavirus. Take a look at mean consumption today and it is not even the 10%, it is 13% double of what it should be. Nearly two thirds of Americans aged 1 years or older consumed more than 10% of daily calories in added sugar. And 70% of U.S. adults over 20 years are obese or overweight according to 2015-2016 figures from CDC. Today the figures from Europe and Asia, Latin America are also alarmingly high for obesity rates. Added sugar comes from processed foods from soda and pasta sauce to cereal and yogurt, and honey, sugar itself. Sugar sweetened beverages are common and dangerous. A 16 ounce grande pumpkin spice latte at Starbucks has 50 grams of sugar or 10% of a 2000 calories diet. The committee in the U.S. wants to see people eat healthy diets and does not want to discourage healthy foods like fruit and milk which people are not eating enough. It wants to see a shift away from processed foods to foods that have good health outcomes such as fruits, vegetables, whole grains, and lean meat and poultry. The beverage producers such as Coca Cola and Pepsi are a major source of resistance , as are Confectioners association, and other producers that benefit from setting the guidelines at 10%. It is not that for 3 decades as the obesity levels rose to the shocking and dismal health levels of today that the ideas of what constitutes a healthy diet were not known. It was just that we as a people did not care enough to fight for what is safe and healthy against whatever resistance was put up by producers with their vested interests, just as we as a people did not care enough to to fight to keep local manufacturing in place and the jobs and healthy communities across our land. A gram of sugar equals 4 calories. For a 2000 calories a day diet that is 120 calories to stay within the 6% that we should not exceed. Make a habit of looking at each packaged product and add up the added sugar grams and calories. ...

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India is storing as much oil as it can at today's low oil prices of about $20-$30 per barrel in May 2020. With India asking the U.S. to store oil from U.S. shale producers at its strategic petroleum reserve storage facilities in the U.S. Already its existing storage facilities of 5.3 million tonnes (39 million barrels) are full, and the storage capacity will be more than doubled with an additional 6.5 million tonnes (48 million barrels) to be built quickly. About 8.5 million tonnes (62 million barrrels)  are in ships on oceans around the world. Demand is only 20% during the lockdown but is expected to reach levels of 2019 by June 2020. Only about 20% of oil consumption comes from existing storage.   That Indian oil capacity is 39 million barrels of storage shows how little was done over succeeding administrations without national aspirations for a growing country with hundreds of million of young people, when the oil storage capacity today of 39 million barrels compares with over 500 million barrels for Japan and for China. A huge Indian government aid package of $280 billion for the economy can be offset by gains in other areas such as low oil price oil storage, and gains in supply chain manufacturing, increasing the size of the domestic market for local manufacturers with incentives and loans, and new rules for stressing local manufacturing for a self-reliant economy. ...

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Pipelines to Corpus Christi have reached capacity as US energy production reaches record levels says this report in WSJ. In the first half of 2023 2 million barrels a day passed through this pipeline. About half of the 4.1 million barrels a day the US shipped abroad were loaded onto tankers on this part of the Texas coastline. This oil helped Europe during the shortages after the closing of access to Russian oil supplies. Because Corpus Christi has terminals that make it cheaper to ship oil out it has become a dominant hub in the US for shipments overseas. It is the closest deepwater port to the Permian basin in West Texas and New Mexico. Corpus Christ is also transitioning to a future where hydrogen is produced for energy by applying for $8 billion from president Biden's renewable energy infrastructure package.

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The $369 billion climate and tax package that is coming out of a deal arranged by Schumer in the US Senate could be a path breaking action. It would enable president Biden to get close to the climate goals he promised last year of cutting US carbon emissions by 50% by 2030 over 2005 levels to combat effects of climate change. The $369 billion package would get the US to reduce carbon emissions by 40% in 2030 over 2005 levels.  Severe effects of climate change with fires and floods in the US, Europe, and Asia have brought a new spotlight to the issues facing the world and the fact that something needs to be done quickly with the US leading the way. Senator Manchin a holdout because he comes from a coal mining state was a holdout. He was persuaded to join as the new legislation provides for support for transmission lines and other investment during a transition period so that it does not affect the economy in his state. The transition period is now accepted as Europe now looks at gas and coal as a temporary resource following the cutoff of Russian supplies and the US will be shipping more LNG to Europe during this period. The vote for this legislation is planned under reconciliation so that the vice president MS. Harris can cast the deciding vote for Democrats in a 50-50 split Senate. Republicans oppose the legislation. Manchin now says it will reduce inflation. Briefly it will give $7500 to every buyer of an electric vehicle EV, and $4000 for a used EV. It would give rebates for heat pumps that increase home energy efficiency. Billions of dollars would be spent for clean energy industries, and for solar, wind, geothermal, other renewable energy projects. Democrats want to get the legislation through the Senate quickly by next week, and so secret were Schumer's negotiations that most Democrats did not know about it. Coming on the heels of the $280 billion CHIPS and Science bill for $280 billion investment in US semiconductor industry, this will be a big win for president Biden and shows the persistence and patience of Mr. Biden is paying off.   ...

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Sabine Kinkartz of the DW.com looks at the way in which Olaf Scholz achieved what was seen as impossible through patience, grit, and hard work in the face of adversity. SPD was seeing poll numbers of as low as 15% in the spring of 2021, just months before the election. Scholz believed in his party's ideas for the renewal of Germany, remained undeterred even after losing an election to lead the SPD to Esken and Walter-Borjans in 2019, when Esken and Walter-Borjans reinforced the idea that the SPD should stand for workers and families, what it always stood for. Scholz was put forward as candidate by Esken and Walter-Borjans in 2021 with conviction. By Spring 2021 it was clear that Scholz had achieved the impossible, getting the conservative Merkel and the CDU, with instincts against borrowing in all situations, to agree to a huge aid package for Germany to fight the pandemic, and a huge aid package for the European Union to fight the pandemic.  That Scholz remained undeterred in his campaign by low poll numbers and went on campaigning on the basis of convictions about what is right for Germans and Germany, comes from deeper convictions from his days growing up in the Hamburg youth wing of Social Democrats in the years following SPD's Wily Brandt and the post war recovery. Germany's most remembered leader after Adenauer, Willy Brandt was leader of the SPD Social Democrats from 1964 to 1987, and chancellor 1969-74. Both Adenauer and Brandt are respected some 50 years later in the world and in Germany. That Germany is going back to this tradition of leadership after the period of the Merkel years when Germany was held back, brings new hope to Europe and the world. In allying with the Greens under a younger generation leaders Scholz saw the promise of an opportunity to tackle problems of climate change and investment in infrastructure together. Both parties see borrowing as essential to invest big in the future. Scholz message to Germans, Europeans and the world is - "Big jobs, but our country is capable of doing them." A message sent out from the US by president Biden, and from Asia by the Indian prime minister. ...

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This report in WSJ looks at the Biden education, healthcare and climate change plan. It is part of the Families and Workers Plan put forward by president Biden for $3.6 trillion. This figure has now been lowered to $2 trillion and may drop crucial provisions for education such as the cost free community college which poses serious risks for working class families unable to afford community college, and skews education access even further to higher income families. It also lowers college attendance of American men, which is falling to alarming levels. The reason the plans are being whittled down is the 50-50 split between Democrats and Republicans in the Senate and the failure of Republicans and two Democrat senators Manchin of West Virginia, Sinema of Arizona to support community college access. Parts of the current bill support child care, access to affordable housing and in home care for elderly Americans. New elections for Senate and House of Representatives in 2022 would have to settle the issues related to financing assistance for families and workers as the Senate today is divided 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans. A separate Bipartisan Infrastructure package has the support of all in the US Congress to build bridges and roads, other infrastructure badly neglected by different administrations over the last 2 decades. ...

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Deutsche Post is reinventing itself for the digital world. Germany's postal agency sold off all but 24 of the 29,000 post office buildings. It is located within "partners" buildings, in banks, convenience stores, and in rural areas a shopkeeper or homeowner acts as postmaster. Because of the surge in online shopping Deutsche Post has expanded its package delivery. It acquired delivery provider DHL in 2002. Deutsche Post provides a model for the U.S. Postal Service as it faces a similiar transformation.

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Concern that the $1.6 trillion aid package could become a bailout for business delayed passage in U.S. Congress, with Republicans trying to allay these concerns. The legislation in Congress would offer $350 billion for small business loans that may be fogiven if firms use them to keep workers on payroll and $500 billion to allow the Treasury Secretary to make loans, loan guarantees or investments to support businesses, states or municipalities. Democrats want less power over the money given to the Treasury Secretary and for money to be directly allocated to the states. The legislation also includes $200 billion for unemployment insurance, and direct payments to households estimated at $300 billion.  Another $242 billion includes appropriations, including money for hospitals and protective gear.  The one time payment to households is $1200 per person and $500 per child, with payments stopping at a specific income level. Unemployment assistane will now be given for 36 weeks instead of 26 weeks. These two items have universal support. It is the $500 billion for businesses with authority given to the Treasury Secretary that is the controversial part. Not so much the money given to businesses and required to go to payroll as the money to businesses in loans and other action with the Treasury Secretary making the decision. ...

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The Biden administration has announced a 100 day review of strategic vulnerabilities in America's supply chain. President Biden has said he supports funding of incentives for production in the US, to become independent of China and Taiwan. From 1990 onwards chip production in the US went from 37% to about 12% today. It will now go back up. Biden's National Security Adviser noted in an article in Foreign Policy that advancing industrial policy like Japan and France once considered out of tune is now essential, "something close to obvious."  At one point in the post war period America's most advanced jet engines were made in West Berlin, surrounded by the army of Russia and its ally the GDR. There is new realization that dependence on Taiwan which makes 22% of semiconductors worldwide and 50% of advanced designs cannot go on the way it is exposing a critical vulnerability for American industry. A 40% tax credit for the cost of new semiconductor fabrication plants and other incentives are now supported in the Biden administration. The whole idea is to turn this around quickly where US no longer depends on uncertain supplies from overseas. Four critical areas of strategic vulnerability will be reviewed- pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, batteries, and strategic materials. ...

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More than half of the money in the $1.9 trillion aid package that was passed in the US Congress will go to people who need it most, the unemployed, the poor and struggling Americans on low incomes. The pandemic hit this group very hard. US president Biden has taken on a new role of supporting the poor, not just the working class as he has done with his roots in a working class district in Delaware. Biden says the aid will give the working class and struggling Americans "a fighting chance."

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An outline of ways in which the Biden $1.9 trillion aid package will help ordinary Americans hit hard by the pandemic- the unemployed, people on low incomes, part time workers, the poor, and the struggling working class.