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Under a new agreement reached between the new Iraqi government of prime minister Haider al-Abadi and the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan, Kurdistan will export 250,000 barrels of oil a day in 2015, and the province of Kirkuk will export 300,000 barrels a day. Exports will be made under the Iraq national oil company, SOMO (State Organization for Marketing of Oil). Kurdistan will get 17% of Iraq's budget expenditure, Kurds will sit on the SOMO board, and Kurdish Peshmerga army will get direct monthly payments from Iraq's budget. Earlier in 2014 talks had broken down under the Maliki government- Kurdistan began exports using a pipeline to Turkey and the Iraqi government cut off budget payments to the Kurdistan Regional Government. Iraq's oil minister Abdul-Mehdi said in Vienna after an OPEC meeting in November that Iraq has set a production target of 3.8 million barrels a day for 2015. This is an increase of 500,000 barrels a day compared to production in Oct. 2014.

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Turkish decision to conduct operations against Iraqi Kurdistan led to fears in the markets that it would cut off supplies of Iraqi oil. However Turkish premier Erdogan says it would limit its operation to PKK guerillas and its not certain whether this was a way to please public opinion in Turkey that the Government was strong enough to respond to attacks on Turkey or Turkish soldiers and not a real decision to go to war and find itself in difficulties with the US and Iraq. This article shows that Turkey is the largest foreign investor in Iraqi Kurdistan with many projects and a thriving foreign trade there with Turkey. Erdogan, Prime Minister of Turkey in questions and answers at the National Press Club in Washington DC during the week of November 4th broadcast on CSPAN emphasized that its Iraq move was an "operation" only, no desire on Turkey's part for a war. When asked how it would affect Turkey's south east part he emphasized that many members of Parliament from his party were Kurdish Turks and Turkey had helped large numbers of peshmerga Kurds during Saddam's period and could not understand the Kurdish response. He also emphasized Turkey did not want to touch civilians in Iraqi Kurdistan, which is what the Iraqi Kurds say would lead to their involvement. He emphasized also Turkey's desire to seek a "middle road" in all matters which he described as the best. Have oil prices overreacted to the move by Turkey, or since there is always considerable uncertainty about events in that region (and clarifications come much later after some striking announcement that Turkey would make a strong response), are markets already very sensitive to political volatility especially with stocks lower than usual and rising demand for oil, simply responding to the worst possible outcome....

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The situation in Iraqi Kurdistan is covered in this WSJ report, with the referendum by the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq set for Sept 25, 2017. This is a region of 5.2 million people in northern Iraq. Adjoining it is a region with a mixed Arab and Kurdish population in oil rich Kirkuk province. The referendum is being held also in these areas as the Kurdish militia the Peshmerga took control of Kirkuk following the hasty withdrawal of the Iraqi army from attacks by Islamic State. Like the other aspects of the long war in Iraq this again complicates the U.S. position. As this report shows Arabs are being displaced in this part of Iraq after moving south as refugees. The Kurdish forces were a reliable ally for the U.S. in the war in 2015-2016, yet the U.S. maintains a policy of fairness towards all communities in Iraq. 

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The Iraqi army moves against Kurdish Peshmerga in northern Iraq after taking Raqqa from ISIS and Kirkuk from the Kurds. The fragile peace between the autonomous Kurdish region and the central government in Iraq broke down after the Kurdistan autonomous government held a referendum in all Kurdish controlled regions in Iraq, including parts taken from ISIS. The Kurds held the referendum for an independent state on Sept 25, 2017. This puts the U.S. in a difficult position as it supported the Kurds against ISIS, when the Iraqi army was disorganized in 2015-2016. Turkey also opposes the Kurds move for an independent state that could include parts of Turkey.

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Nour Malas and Joe Parkinson report from the town of Makhmour, retaken by Kurdish Peshmerga forces following airstrikes on ISIS militant positions. The crisis situation 20 miles from Erbil, capital of the Iraqi Kurdistan region and the coordination between Iranian advisors, U.S. military advisors, and the Peshmerga to push back the ISIS. Peshmerga say young Sunnis in the town joined the ISIS in droves, something never seen before. It also reveals the situation after the failure of the Maliki administration to build a state with support from all parts of the Iraqi population- Shiite, Sunni, Kurds and tribes- leading to the radical alienation of Sunnis. The late awakening of Iran, the U.S., and moderate Iraqis both Sunni and Shiite, to the dangers of the Maliki policies. The unraveling of the decade of Iraq rebuilding by the U.S. in such rapid manner leads to the stepping down of Maliki and beginning of a new non-sectarian approach and policies. The vacillating in the Obama adminstration's policies towards Syria and Iraq leads to a lack of direction in the region. ...

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Juleanna Glover points to the need for financing of the Kurdistan regional government in Iraq as the central government in Baghdad has failed to make payments to the KRG for its share of national oil income. The KRG would receive 17% of Iraq's national oil income under negotiated agreements, but only $2 billion of $12 billion owed to KRG has been transferred in 2015. The Kurds also have to support 1.8 million refugees from Syria and Iraq with the ongoing civil war. The World Bank predicts a shortfall in funding for KRG of $1.5 billion in 2015, and it needs a $2.4 billion bridge loan. Peshmarga forces it is reported have not been paid for 3 months even as the Kurds have borne a disproportionate share of the burden in the war.

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One of the favorable factors for Iraq in recent years was the surge in oil production, adding 1 million barrels a day to reach 3.3 million barrels a day. It surged to an average of 3.7 million barrels a day in December 2014 after a deal with the Kurdish region in northern Iraq for an additional 550,000 barrels a day in exchange for Kurds getting a 17% share of federal revenues. This helped Iraq overcome other problems. The drop in oil prices has led to a 40% drop in revenues and the invasion by Islamic State in a loss of some production.The federal budget of $101 billion planned revenues is based on an oil price of $56 and exports of 3.3 million barrels a day, resulting in a $20 billion deficit. It assumes $10 billion in new tax revenues which may be hard to achieve with a lack of strong central government. Experts on Iraq's oil industry say large investments are needed to offset declining oil production from older oil fields in southern Iraq. Oil exports were 2.5 million barrels a day in 2014, and experts say even this will be hard to achieve for 2015. Investments could come from western oil companies, but Iraq and the Kurdistan region are behind in payments to oil companies. Iraq is considering issuing bonds for $10-$15 billion....

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Crude oil reaches a high of $90.46 on the exchange pushed higher by sanctions by Bush on the Revolutionary Corps and some Banks in Iran, the threat to the oil pipelines from Kirkuk in Iraqi Kurdistan to Ceyhan in Turkey with its possible entry of Turkey into Iraqi Kurdistan, and statements to by the Secretary General of OPEC El-Badri that OPEC has no price band or target and is not worried by prices at $90 per barrel. Also aggravating the situation is lower oil inventories as winter approaches with IEA estimating a drop of 33 million barrels between June and September, contrasting with increases the past 5 years as Fall approaches.

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Exxon sells a 25% stake in the West Qurna-1 oil field near Basra, Iraq, to Sinopec. And a 10% stake to Pertamina. This field produces 510,000 barrels a day with potential for 3 million barrels a day. Exxon and Shell are heading the $50 billion project. The project is a service contract with the Iraqi government to develop the oil field. After the sale of the stake estimated at about $5 billion for a 10 year contract Exxon retains a 25% stake. Exxon is managing risk in the project after differences with the Iraqi government over its investments in the Kurdistan part of Iraq.

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Trofimov of the WSJ gives exceptional insights into Iraq in 2017 under prime minister Abadi. Iraq he points out survives as a democracy under Abadi with free elections unlike most of the Middle East. Even pro-Iranian militia leaders who fought U.S. troops are willing to concede that after many mistakes by the U.S. in the region there is hope and the U.S. action led eventually to this positive outcome.  Under prime minister Haidar Abadi Iraq has an opposition with TV channels opposed to the Abadi government freely operating. Abadi is a British educated engineer and says here that he believes in a multi ethnic democracy for Iraq. He was chosen to replace the openly sectarian government of Nouri Makliki which led to the loss of parts of Iraq to Islamic State. With that part of the conflict coming to a close and Iraq regaining most of what was Iraq before the conflict Mr. Abadi's stature has risen. Abadi says he will bring all pro-Shiite militias under government control. The lessons of the last couple of years, the failures of sectarianism under Maliki leading to the rise of Islamic State are not lost on the Abadi government. It is taking steps to maintain friendly relations with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, and present a multi ethnic image. Abadi and Maliki both are from the Shiite Daiwa party. During the recent dispute with the Kurdish government of Mr. Barzani, the legitimacy of a democratic government played a role in winning over Kurdish politicians so that control of the oil rich province of Kirkuk was reclaimed by the central government. Mr. Barzani was seen as overstaying his term by 2 years. This has further increased the credibility of the Abadi government. Particularly as it lets a free press and freedom of expression operate in Iraq through the media and respects this. Abadi says: "We suffered a lot under a dictatorship. We should never allow dictatorship to come back." New elections are to be held in Iraq with Mr. Maliki representing other parts of the Daiwa party, elections in Kurdistan region with politicians opposed to Mr. Barzani taking part, and in other parts of Iraq. Iraq's democracy is still struggling, but there is hope if the lessons of recent years of sectarianism are not lost for the leaders and peoples of Iraq's different ethnic regions. Just as Iranian election gave a new term to the moderates under prime minister Rouhani there is a sense that the elections will do the same in Iraq. Rouhani won 57% of the vote with 23 million votes to 38% for the other candidate Mr. Raisi who won 15 million votes. Except for the eastern part of the country Mr. Rouhani prevailed in all the provinces of Iran.  ...

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Hunt Oil signs a deal to explore for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Because national legislation on oil has been stalled in the Iraqi Parliament, the Kurdistan regional government has passed its own law consistent with the provisions of the national legislation, and the deal with the Hunts is under this regional legislation.

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Questions and Answers about Islamic State on the BBC website give a short and simple look at Islamic State or ISIS in Syria and Iraq, its origins and how it developed upto the Iraqi government's efforts to retake Mosul in northern Iraq in Dec. 2016.

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This exceptional report by Chulov in the Guardian shows the changes in the war in Iraq and Syria in 2015-2016 since the downing of a Russian jet by Turkey in late 2015. It says that the Syrian government's future was uncertain in late 2015 with Turkish support for rebel forces in the north. During this period Russia curtailed trade and tourism relations with Turkey, and improved relations with the Kurds. Russia intervened in northern Syria directly to prevent a collapse of Syrian government forces in the north. Kurdish forces were already controlling large parts of the Syrian territory adjoining Turkey, and Turkey was concerned about the support to Kurds within Turkey from Kurds in Syria and a historical movement for  Kurdish independence. In April 2016 Russia made a move to win Turkish support by saying it would support the territorial integrity of Syria, so that no support would be given to the Kurds. As the U.S. consistently supported the Kurds in the fight against ISIS, Turkey under prime minister Erdogan changed its policy of support for rebel forces in Syria to focus on what it perceived as the threat fom Kudish control of the region at its Syrian borders. Rebel forces were told to focus not on the Syrian government forces but on ISIS, leading to withdrawal of support in Aleppo. What remains now of the war in Syria and Iraq is Iranian influence in Iraq, the Russian influence from support of the Syrian government in Damascus, and for the first time U.S. ground forces in the north with 900 troops supported by artillery on the side of the Kurds. The next stage in the war to take ISIS controlled Raqqa is being negotiated between Russia, Turkey and the U.S., according to this report.  ...

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The Iraqi army takes over the Al Nuri Grand Mosque in Mosul, but what the mosque and the city itself lie in ruins. The minaret is gone in the debris, a shattered city is what is left from the Islamic State takeover of the city in 2014 and the eight month effort in 2017 by the Iraqi army to retake the city.   For more depth see links and groups or search- The problems of Mosul started with the openly sectarian administration of prime minister Nouri Maliki leading to alienation of Sunnis in Mosul. Corruption in the administration and weakness in the Iraqi army combined with alienation of Sunnis to create an opening for a militant group Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. As Iraqi units disintegrated Mosul fell, leading to a worsening of the refugee crisis in Syria and Iraq, increasing the flood of refugees to Europe, and the series of terrorist incidents in Paris, Berlin, London, rise of right wing groups in the European Union, in a chain reaction. The failure of the Obama administration to setup a "no fly zone" in Syria simply compounded the crisis into what it is today. At the root of the crisis - the failed efforts to reconcile Sunnis and Shiites in Iraq, and the sectarian conflicts in the region as a whole stretching from Saudi Arabia and Egypt to Iran.     ...