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China's dependence on an export sector that is uncertain 14% growth (EV's electronics) vs. 0.2% growth in domestic spending April 2026. Costlier energy inputs are affecting China in the way that is affecting Germany's economy in 2026. The US has increased tariffs, Germany and the EU are likely to do the same as they see their economy erode with Chinese exports in German markets replacing German manufacturing. China has set 4.5% growth target much of it from ramping up exports and depends on cheaper inputs for energy as Germany has done for economic growth. This is being gradually eroded as US/EU want to reindustrialize and make things and products realizing the errors in industrial policy of previous administrations Bush and Obama in US and Schroeder/Merkel in Germany. At the same time India wants to be a manufacturing hub like China. When that happens by 2030 China's growth will be similar to the US of 2-3% a year as exports decrease. Eastern India is the New East and South China with 700 million people for the first time in 2025-2026 under double engine governments. Double engine meaning state, local and federal governments all under the same party (the BJP National party) so that industrial policy is conducted along the lines of a Master Plan tested in western Indian states of Gujarat and Maharashtra. This has been seen before. As Japan rapid rise of the 1960's and 1970's slowed by 1980, China's rapid rise of the 1990's and 2000's slowed by 2025 and India in 2025 is picking up from China in the way China picked up from Japan. This means an industrialized US and EU, rapidly industrializing India will face a slowing China and aging China by 2030. Knowing this pattern helps US and EU leaders, Indian leaders, look at the long term in their plans, having confidence in their investments in industrial progress for the next 5 years. ...

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Government data show that the German GDP declined by 0.5% in the thrid quarter after declining 0.4% in the second quarter. IMF predicts GDP decline of 0.8% in 2009. Germany's recession look like the worst in Europe except for the UK which has many of the same problems as the US economy. Germany's housing market has seen prices grow by almost zero in the last 10 years and German consumers are not in debt so Germany felt fairly immune to the troubles facing the US and the UK and Spain. But Germany is a big exporter and it has become more dependent on exports in the last 10 years. Exports account for 41% of GDP and CHina sucked up alot of machinery exports from Germany and China is in the midst of a drastic slowdown. In fact for the first time China is seeing a decline in monthly electricity output. And China's GDP growth rate may go from 12% to the range of somewhere around 6% in 2009, considering that Chinese export factories are closing down as the USA its main export market is seeing a rapid slowdown. Its already reached 9% and the slowdown is just beginning as the US market is also at the beginning of its slowdown. As the US market declines further in 2009 China's export factories will face a further decline in orders. Comparing the US at 10%, Japan at 20% and Germany at 41% of GDP one can see how heavily dependent the Germans have become on exports, especially with Asia's booming economies sucking up German exports. New orders for German goods declined by 18% from their peak in November 2007. And this is just the beginnning. So German unemployment is expected to increase. Its true that German banks invested heavily in mortgage related securities and other risky assets abroad, and the international financial crisis has led to a bailout fund of 500 billion euros setup by the German government. But Bundesbank figures show that what is causing the drastic contraction is the drop in investment spending as loan demand has dropped. ...

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German arms exports went up by 65% in 2019 over the prior year, reaching $8.8 billion, according to the Economics Ministry. The previous record was set in 2015, followed by 3 years of declining sales. Exports to crisis region can destabilize, as in Yemen. In some situations such as Sahel Africa Chancellor Merkel sees a constructive role for German arms exports to allies.

The largest buyer is Hungary at 1.77 billion euros as Hungary is upgrading its military. Next is Egypt at 802 million euros, and the USA at 483 million euros.

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The German government has taken notice of hate speech on social media and social bots. The Justice Ministry convened a task force on hate speech on internet. Justice Minister Heiko Maas promised legal action against social media like facebook and twitter if it violated laws of libel and inciting to violence. Chancellor Merkel is bringing in a data science expert Professor Simon Hegelich of the Technical University of Berlin for consultations in Dec. 2016. Only AfD of the main parties, with its anti-immigration stance, has not come out in favor of not using social bots or paid trolls in the 2017 elections. Hegelich in talk with DW.com says it is hard to legislate on this because the whole phenomenon has not been fully understood. Article 5 of the Constitution provides for free speech. Hegelich also says the state of technology moves faster than legislation, and being international sites like facebook, twitter and others pose additional issues. He does not say laws cannot be helpful but that its not clear how best to do this. Thomas Jarzombek is a CDU member of parliament and digital media expert. He says social bots are more likely controlled by foreign countries, and fake news sites are more of a domestic problem. Making this worse is the incentive for unemployed journalists to do blogging of the crude and aggressive type to make more money. Jarzombek sees the need for the press to do more in its role for the democratic process to function properly, by functioning in the role of "enlightenment" and "awareness."  Jenna Behrends, a law student and CDU local politician for Berlin-Mitte, says it is necessary for good bots to be used to fight bad bots, in an article in Der Spiegel. Major mainstream media would then have to launch social bots themselves to fulfill their role of providing the public with correct and fair information free of excessive bias and distortion of the bad bots. One example of this is shown explicitly here of German chancellor Merkel's picture with the words " Guilty of betraying the people," with links to "Drain the swamp," and "Brexit." A more complex question is one of how to let people vent out frustration about the mainstream media itself being biased in favor of the established views and not doing enough or giving enough space to reflect alternative views, so that these can be debated without inflammatory language and deliberate distortion. A whole range of tools and modifications of behaviour may be necessary ahead of next years elections in France and Germany, now that the phenomenon is better understood following a vote in the Anglo-Saxon countries.   ...

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The German government under Chancellor Merkel and the German public's preference for continuity and continuing the course Germany is in at this time. This is to continue the export emphasis for as long as possible to countries like China and India, which neede the machinery Germany makes. Exports makeup 47% of German GDP, the highest of large industrialized countries. German industries are being assisted by the government to keep employees and tide over the transition period as markets in Aisa and emerging countries stuggle to recover form the economic crisis. GErman industries in chemicals, automobiles, and machinery are feeling the change and are scaling down and moving to other countries where its advantageous to manufacture. The alternative of promoting entrpreneurial sectors such as software and computers has not met the same degree of success as building a large solar energy industry, in which Germany is taking a leadership role.

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China is offering Germany narrow wins such as buying more Airbus planes while continuing to focus on another export expansion drive in European Union countries. As it pulls back from the American market  in the face of tariffs by DJT it is selling more automobiles and other products in Germany. China continues to focus on its core potential in electric cars, machine tools, robotics and other products where it competes with German products. German jobs are at stake as China continues its expansion into the European market. This is a big concern for Merz of the CDU as he visits China in Feb 2026.

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The latest Commerzbank estimates show Germany and Japan, both with large capital goods industry, showing declining GDP of about 7% in 2009. That is a steep decline stemming from the lower demand in industrializing countries like China, India and other countries. The German government has only committed so far 88 billion euros ($120 billion) or 3.5% of GDP. To get some idea what the German government is thinking look at the GDP numbers from the government, which show only a 2.25% decline. Compare this with other estimates closer to Commerzbank's estimate- BNP Paribas shows 5.4% contraction, Deutsche Bank 5%, German think tank DIW 4-5% drop. And the government estimate scheduled date for revision is April 29. This may explain the gap between what the Obama administration is saying to the Europeans: you need further stimulus, and what the Chancellor Merkel is saying: we will be just fine. The French government is saying saying the same thing the German government is saying. But France with a smaller export industry is expected to see a drop of less than 4%, the USA 4%, by Commerzbank estimates. Experts say as German elections approach in September, Merkel is going to have to respond with larger stimulus amid large job losses. And sentiment may be shifting in France as job losses mount, as evidenced by large turnout across France calling on the government to help in recent demonstrations....

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Automobiles, aerospace, pharmaceuticals and energy helped France reduce its deficit. French exports increase in 2025 and deficit decreases- euros 614 billion in exports to 703 billion in imports in 2025. Deficit with Germany down to euros 5 billion. Yet there is aproblem with deficit with China- going from euros 100 billion in 2019 to 315 billion euros in 2025. This is a major problem for France as it has been for the US.

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Germany's Economy minister Zypries warned that Germany would take legal action by taking the case to the World Trade Organization if president Trump imposes tariffs above that allowed by WTO rules. She said this before a meeting at the White House between president Trump and Chancellor Merkel. The U.S. is Germany's largest export market with 107 billion in imports and the U.S. exports 58 billion euros of products to the U.S. Zypries accepted that the large trade surplus of Germany was "a problem," but that America "needs our machines and industrial plants" for the time being. Germany has insisted that it does not provide unfair advantages to its companies, and that German companies were simply more competitive. Trump has focussed largely on China for anti-competitive practices, though he mentioned BMW by name during the campaign. In the last 2 years the euro has depreciated significantly against the dollar giving German companies competitive advantage, largely as a result of the ECB- in opposition to German economic policy- trying to stimulate the economy of other southern eurozone countries such as Spain, Italy and France. ...

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Germany's kurzabeit or short work system avoids layoffs in a crisis. The Bundestag parliament in Germany quickly reintroduced it following the coronavirus. It provides subsidy to employers so that wages of upto 2500 euros can be paid to employees. The German parliament changed the requirement that makes it law fro a 30% of workers of a company being impacted by a crisis to 10%. About 2.3 million workers will benefit at a cost of 10 billion euros says this report in The Financial Times. The Federal labor office has a fund of $26 billion to which workers and employers contributed just for this purpose of safety net.  Workers get about 60% of their wages under this scheme while the crisis lasts. The last time it was used during the financial crisis of 2008-2009 1.3 million workers benefited from this scheme to prevent layoffs.  Germany with its strong vocational training system invests in worker training. The logical next step was to preserve this knowledge component of workers and avoid its loss through layoffs due to some crisis that is temporary and beyond the control of the company. Britain is adopting this idea this time with the British Treasury supporting  80% of lost wages upto 2500 pounds a month in the new economic aid package announced by the British government. Spain has a scheme under ERTE for 70% of wages to be paid as safety net. France has set aside 8.5 billion euros aid for assistance to workers in a similar scheme as safety net. ...

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Germany's growth rate for GDP in 2016 was 1.9% compared to 2015. This is the highest growth rate in half a decade, and better than 2015 when the growth in GDP was 1.7%. Fiscal surplus was 0.6% of GDP in 2016. Germany's Economics and Technology Ministry says the economy is improving because of the positive labor situation, rising incomes and consumer spending. Real estate boom is also helping growth, and also the state spending including on refugees accomodation. Exports have surged and the economy has recovered from the Brexit effect. Exports surged to 1.1 trillion euros in 11 months of 2016.

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Even though U.S. president Trump has singled out countries such as Mexico, South Korea and China for trade practices, the U.S. today faces stronger competition in trade from Germany. The trade surplus with Germany for 2016 was $297 billion for Germany compared to $245 billion for China, according to Ifo economic institute. China's trade surplus according to the World Bank was down from 10% of gross domestic product or GDP in 2007 to 3% in 2016, while Germany's has gone up to 8.5%. The Chinese currency is seen as not being undervalued by some experts, while the euro has lost a quarter of its value in the last 3 years, giving Geman exporters an edge. The U.S. also competes with Germany in nine of the 10 export categories such as machinery and electronic equipment, according to the Peterson Institute. Then why is the focus under U.S. president Trump not including Germany? One reason is that China's products have put a downward pressure on U.S. manufacturing wages, and the the speed with the Chinese manufacturing has grown in certain industries. Germany has very few of the manufacturing subsidies that China provides to its industries. And the depreciation in the euro is not favored by the German government as it opposes the policies of the European Central Bank. Germany also has a higher propensity to save about 10% of GDP compared to about 3% for the U.S., according to OECD. As a result Germany is accumulating foreign assets at a faster rate than any other nation, while the U.S. is borrowing capital from overseas. Ways to change this are minimum wage regulations introduced by the government, but larger measures such as increasing government investment in the economy are not supported as the country prepares for the future with an aging population.   ...

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Chancellor Merkel meets President Trump in a key summit in March 2017. The two leaders have different styles, one flamboyant the other reserved. Chancellor Merkel tells the German media "it is better to talk with each other than about each other." Trump called Merkel's refugee policy "catastrophic," Merkel has said that the Geneva convention requires countries to do this on humanitarian grounds. On trade German's Economy minister Brigitte Zypries says Germany would file a suit on any hike in import duties at the World Trade Organization, that WTO rules restrict import taxes to 2.5% on autos. Germany's BMW plant in the U.S. exports more autos than GM and Ford put together, and Merkel is likely to emphasize large German investment in the U.S.. The heads of BMW and Siemens and other industry executives are accompanying Merkel to the U.S. as trade will be a key topic.

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In extended diplomacy Carney visits Beijing, China and says middle powers are seeking ways to interact and trade in a world of big power rivalry. His visit is followed by visits by UK's Starmer and Germany's Merz, and preceded by Macron. At the same time Merz visits Ahmedabad for a kite festival and signs a new trade agreement with India, followed by Leyen and Costa of the EU who sign a EU-India trade agreement for 27 countries of the European Union. All this suggests carefully planned effort in Europe to create new channels of trade and reorient existing trade relationships that will be more resilient with the US shifting to focus on Monroe Doctrine idea of the Western hemisphere as its region of influence and security. This report shows pictures of Starmer and Xi meeting at the Plough Pub in UK in 2015 and reflects on how this has changed 11 years later with China now  a dominant power with the world's 3rd largest economy and a third of world's manufacturing and logistics. How does this change the relationship with China in 2026 for UK and Canada, and the EU? At the same time Germany-India and EU-India relationship creates a 2 billion people market with capital, technology and labor potential to create the largest potential driven economic group in the world, combining EU's 20 trillion to India's $4 trillion economy and mutually complementing, which has potential to rival the US at $30 trillion by 2030 as India grows rapidly in the new EU/Germany/India market and the EU gets a new boost with the complementarity of the two regions by 2035. This suggests that something new is happening and Germany after a lot of soul searching have hit on something we should see blossom by 2030 in the way China has grown since that picture with Cameron of Xi at the Plough Pub in UK. A problem China faces as it continues to push exports is that EU/ India and US will take in less exports and there is only so much it can put in Latin American and African market, UK/Canada market leading to industries with massive oversupply. Major economic redirection may result from the Merz/Leyen/Costa visit and firming up trade agreements with India if the EU, Germany and India have the determination to seize this opportunity in the 21st Century. As Leyen said it has the potential to create a stable world with values of the Bible, the Bhagavad Gita, and Mahajima Nikaya of the Buddha supporting the industrial states that emerged from the Industrial Revolutions. ...

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Cost of Living Crisis under Biden, Affordability Crisis under DJT, and the situation in Feb 2026 with 2.4% inflation and job creation at 130,000 jobs in January 2026. Is this a sign that the tariffs policy is greatly misrepresented and misunderstood? The flexibility in tariffs, attention to financial markets through Scott Bessent's keen sghts at the Treasury shared with the president, the cutouts for key countries such as India to exclude semiconductors and cell phonesand other products from tariffs. For instance under tariffs increase India actually increased its exports by diversifying its economy and signing a trade agreement with Germany and the EU, followed by the trade agreement with the US, so that it remains an enven stronger economic partner. The same is true for Japan where elections are leading to a parliamentary majority for PM Sanae Takaichi who wants to work with the US and build a strong economic partnership, and make the large investments in the US it has promised.  Japan and India are two of the five largest economies in the world (US, China, Japan, India, Germany). German Foreign Minister Wadephul for the CDU welcomed Marco Rubio's call for a "new Western Century" and for strengthening western civilization common heritage of the US and Europe. This means 4 of the 5 largest economies in the world are in sync for the future of world trade, and their economic future.  ...

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This response by experts on transatlantic relations rejects the other view expressed in Zeit Online that the U.S. under Trump remains estranged from Germany and the EU. These experts from the American Institute for German Contemporary Studies, American German Council, and Centers at John Hopkins and Georgetown for German Studies, reject the view that the Trump administration and Germany are that far apart on many issues as it appears from media coverage.  Foremost it points out that civil society relations are sound and growing. About 50 million Americans trace their descent to Germany, including president Trump, much larger to over half the U.S. population considering European descent. Much larger is the sense of a culturally shared future with the European Union, with the nations of Europe including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the nations of Eastern Europe, and Britain. The civil society relationships run deep in a way that is hardly affected by the Trump administration. Within the Trump administration the policies to Europe these experts remind the reader, are determined by the "adults" in the administration, who are senior members of the administration. This is a crucial point as Trump administration policy is not determined by the president's liking for tweets as much as by senior cabinet members Tillerson at the State Department, Gen. Mattis at Defense, Kelly at the White House, and senior members of Congress including Senators Corker and other senior committee members. This is why Republican Senator Kay Hutchinson was chosen as Ambassador to NATO. It should be noted in this context of German-EU relations in president Trump's first year that there was a period of German disillusionment with president Obama, exacerbated by the NSA spying on German chancellor Merkel and on the EU delegation to the UN, with president Obama's failure to offer any apology. Relations recovered from that low point. No one suggested that there be a German led decoupling of the EU with America at that low point, or at another low point in German-U.S. relations with the setup of American Pershing II nuclear missiles on German soil under the Reagan administration when there were large scale protests.  The American view that the U.S. should not have to shoulder major responsibilities for defense and foreign relations by itself is not new say these experts, and goes back to earlier administrations before Trump.  The experts argue for an active role by Germany with its partners in Europe for defense and foreign relations, which should not be seen as a result of U.S. pressure, only responding to the situation as it has evolved upto this time. Views on immigration are also changing with effort by the EU and Germany, France, to reduce immigration from the source countries in Africa, and the changing perceptions about uncontrolled immigration in Germany and France, say the authors. A coordinated policy towards Russia  is seen as not having changed. And much as a reset in relations was advocated by Obama in the first year of his first term, the current policy of the Trump administration to work with Russia to lower tensions can be seen in the same way say these experts, and not as a fundamental shift in American policy. The deep relationship of Germany and the EU with China is another positive aspect that will also help the U.S. in framing its own policies towards China. The German-American relationship, and the European Union relationship with the U.S.  is seen as basic to the values and interests of the U.S. and Europe. This relationship is too deep and supported by civil society and Congress, the Republican Party, and the Democratic Party, by large trade relationships, to be affected by temporary differences under any one administration. Even these differences are part of a larger debate that is part of dialogue on issues in a democratic society, sometimes raucous and loud, and could be welcomed and carefully channelled in constructive ways.     ...

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Three BBC correspondents on China's 2026 National People's Congress - effort to invest in childcare and elder care services to increase consumer spending. To continue in solar, robotics, AI, EV's, and exports as before. The problems of industrial overcapacity and pushing subsidized product into the US or EU that cause trade tensions and tariffs will continue.  New 301 investigations by US Trade Representative are taking place and will complete by mid-July. Germany's chancellor was in Beijing making a similar point about industrial overcapacity and German business is now facing the same threats to their business that the US has gone through. The one other way for China to grow is to increase consumer spending- hence the effort to help young people with childcare costs and retired people with elder care. The payments to seniors is low says the BBC's McDonnell who says the increase in payment to rural and non-working urban residents of $3 per month is miniscule. No details given for housing support to newly married couples. On one aspect relevant to the Iran war-China is increasing its efforts on renewable energy to reduce imports from volatile Middle East. ...

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Trade between Russia and Germany was about $100 billion in 2013, or about 3.3% of German exports. About 300,000 jobs depend on exports to Russia, according to Germany's DIHK Chambers of Commerce. A poll released by Der Spiegel on July 27, 2014, shows 52% of Germans now support tough sanctions on Russia, with the mood shifting following the death of 193 Dutch residents on Malaysian Airlines Flight 17. Finance minister Schauble told the Bild newspaper- "Damaging pece and stability would be the biggest risk for the economy."

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Recent polls suggest that 4 out of 5 Germans say they are not benefitting from the rebound. Germany has experienced growth with the recovery in export markets in Asia, but the benefits are not being seen at home. Experts at the OECD, and at Duisburg-Essen University's employment institute, say that there has been a downside to the unemployment rate having reached 7.6%; much of this gain has been achieved by expanding the low wage sector. Something like this has not happened in other European countries. The OECD employment outlook report 2010, reveals that 21.5% of Germans were employed in the low-wage sector in 2008, compared to 16% in 1998. The Duisburg-Essen University estimate is that 2.3 million workers were added in this sector from 1998 to 2008, with a total of 6.55 million workers in this sector in 2008. What is happening according to experts is that the Hartz IV labor-market reform is subsidizing the low wages paid by the private sector. And the German government has spent $50 billion in subsidies for people in this sector since 2005. The concern relates to consumer spending which is tight in Germany, even as exports have done well in the recovery from 2008. Average net income has actually fallen since 2004 in Germany, reaching 15,815 euros in 2009 from the figure of 16,471 euros in 2004. Germay has no minimum wage across all sectors. To have a minimum wage comparable to other European countries, hourly pay would have to be between 5.93 euros and 9.18 euros. The DGB group of unions have called for a 8.50 euro minimum wage. ...

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Germany's exports dropped by 2.8% and imports by 0.1% in October over prior month. Trade surplus dropped to 16.8 billion euros from 13.4 billion euros. Germany's largest export market is the US. It now faces tariffs from the new DJT administration.

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Germany benefits from the lower value of the euro in relation to other currencies. Germany's exports to the eurozone as a percentage of all exports increased from 38.4% in 2009 to 41.7% in 2011, according to the Germany Federal Statistical Office and the German Chambers of Industry and Commerce. Exports to China increased from 4.64% to 6.11%, and to Asia from 11.8% to 13.73%, and to the U.S. from 6.77% to 6.95%. This increases the gap between Germany and other eurozone countries with smaller exports. Ireland with its large export base and foreign investment is likely to benefit from the lower euro. German companies VW, BMW, Mercedes, Heidelberg Cement and EADS also benefit from the weaker euro. France's Peugeot with sales concentrated in Europe does not benefit from the weaker euro compared to German auto companies with higher sales overseas, especially in China.

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NYT Graphs showing Effect of 17.2% overall US Tariffs positive on US Trade Deficit (significant shrinking) Prices (less than 3% increase in index). Overall effect is surprisingly quite positive, yet media has given misleading reports and misrepresented tariffs. Tariffs were used when everything else failed and had to be applied in the real world with skill, and backtracking where necessary, repositioning tariff, and continuing to use it when the opposite side including European, Japanese, Koreans, Taiwanese, were only interested in their own gains, indifferent or negative to fairness for US gains. Even where the tariff was placed on a partner the results were surprising the carving out of exemptions such as electronics semiconductors and iphones, made it possible for India to increase exports, so that it was done thoughtfully. This shows that tariff application was done by DJT/Bessent/Jamieson in a way that gave countries options to manage their trade to come out doing well. Germany and EU without US tariffs may not have signed the deal with India this quickly, and India may have used its agricultural protection to prolong and not look for areas in common and work out a deal. Germany might still be thinking India depends too much on Russia for defense, instead it looked for areas for defense cooperation. Result the huge India- German, India-European Union deal that connects to form a 2 billion strong market. Nobody really noticed its importance except for 2 billion people- it comes when it is a highly motivated 2 billion people with strengths in technologies, industry, people skills, and between 2 civilizations the Buddhist/Vedanta Hindu and the Christian civilization, each discovering the other and the richness of its partner's civilization. ...