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After UAE leaves OPEC and US increases oil production (Venezuela+), China reducing imports keeps oil prices low and keeps Hormuz closure from affecting oil prices. This has major impact on all countries that are affected by the shortage of oil as this puts more oil into the market (about 4 million barrels a day that China imported through Hormuz), and by lowering oil prices helps China as it pays less for oil it imports from other sources outside Hormuz. It also helps poor countries such as India and China, Pakistan, Philippines, Indonesia, rest of Asia, Africa and Latin America. By keeping oil prices low China also help climate change action by accelerating its renewable energy production. India and EU, US, also increase renewable energy production as a consequence of Hormuz, leading to strong climate change action. These are some of the positive side of Hormuz as the world with China leading the way learns that it is best to do without Hormuz. Though China does not say this publicly China does not want to see more nuclear weapons capable countries in volatile regions. This is true also of India, Indonesia, and EU. China  (And India) also consider it a high priority for its economy to maintain trade relations with the US. This is rarely stated in the Media today. What this means is that oil prices can be kept low as the largest nations together EU, US, China, India, Japan join together to keep oil prices low not repeating the situation during an earlier naval blockade April 13 to June 18 2026 of prices going to $125 a barrel. China has some of the largest coal reserves and oil strategic reserves in the world which make it possible for China to do this. ...

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China has banned coal imports from Australia in response to Australian request for an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus and criticism of China's handling of Hong Kong protests. 

China imports about a quarter of its coal imports from Australia. Yet this has impacted China because of a rebound in the economy and a very cold winter in 2020. This means there is a shortage of electricity in some parts of China. 

China imports 80% of its iron ore, with 60% coming from Australia and prices of iron ore have almost doubled in the past year. Last year China imported over 1 billion tons of iron ore.

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By taking action in Venezuela in a way that benefits the Venezuelan people (and similar action in the long run interests of the Iranian people to dedicate most of the resources for development and increase share of oil revenues without discounting and removing sanctions ill effects on economy and quality of life) major new changes can improve quality of life in the world.  Venezuelan production which was 3 million barrels a day has declined to 900,000 without US investment and technological upgrades. With US investment this can be increased to put additional oil supplies on the market lost in the war with Iran and smaller traffic through the Straits of Hormuz. Venezuelan crude is best suited to US refineries which frees up shale oil for export to meet needs of India and Europe. China which had hyper growth through massive oil consumption would reduce its growth rate and its impact on climate change as it adjusts to the loss of 3 million barrels a day it no longer gets from Iran. Slower growth rate in China is good for the climate as it is the hyper growth of China that put the most pressure on climate even as Europe and the US had cut  fossil fuels consumption over the last decade. China made 2 coal plants a week and 95% of all new global coal construction in 2023. India needs additional oil supplies as it increases its growth rate from a much lower point of development (and electricity poverty) than China. By simply settling for normal development compared to hyper development targets( China has reached a point of Oil Fairness Percentage where each country gets to use the same percentage of oil as its population is as a percentage of world population- the number being about 17% for China for both, with the number being 18% for India and it having a shortfall of 12% based on its oil consumption being only 6% of the world total). China can reduce oil and coal consumption reducing pressure on oil prices and absorbing most of the impact from the loss of Iranian oil. China and Russia + (old Soviet territory) Canada, Australia, Brazil, Argentina, make up about 40% of the world's territorial landmass, would be large beneficiaries with improved climatic conditions from burning less coal. They are now highly developed countries and do not need hyper growth which requires China to build 2 coal plants a week and consume excessive amounts of crude oil and coal based on artificially set targets that make no sense by destroying the climate when no child in China lacks electricity to read. Marathon Philipps Valero with over half a million barrels of refining capacity for heavy Venezuelan crude can now put this to use using the imports by US of lower priced (by $9 to Brent crude) Venezuelan crude oil. In a few months of 2025 US has imported 280,000 barrels a day of Venezuelan crude in February 2026 alone some of it going to the large Valero refinery in Port Arthur, Texas. American oil refiners make larger margins using the Venezuelan crude than they make on light crude from shale oil producers in the US. What this does is to increase the supply of crude and refined oil products on the market as the light crude get shipped overseas to India and Europe- including countries like Spain which took in 100,000 barrels a day of shale crude from US in February 2026. ...

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Idea that control over Straits of Hormuz is US goal is repudiated by DJT in his Address to the Nation, yet it finds its way into the media. There is no war for US to win, it is only about removing a nuclear and ballistic missile threat, nothing to do with oil. MAGA base, US public has rejected these wars in remote countries of the Middle East, when reindustrialization is the goal, not repeating the mistakes of Bush and Obama who by fighting these wars for 8 years in Iraq wasted resources and pursued policies that deindustrialized the Nation and weakened the heartland of America. Beyond limiting the threat of nuclear weapons and long range ballistic missiles that could hit US, Europe and other nations there is no other goal. US and DJT repeatedly pointed out that being self sufficient it does not need Iranian or Iraqi or Saudi oil. The president even said in his Address that the US wanted to supply other countries with oil as it produced more than Saudi and Russia combined, and not counting Venezuelan oil production ramp up expected by 3-4 million barrels a day. Behind this is the known fact that China and Japan get 90% of their imports from Hormuz Straits, so it is up to these nations and India and Britain to find solutions to Hormuz not the US. ...

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Media headlines focused on Xi's statements on Taiwan. China is concerned that US not recognize Taiwan independence, but not much beyond that. China puts Iran much lower on the list of issues it considers important. It appears that China first priority is to be accepted as an equal partner with the US as a superpower. That is Xi's goal in this trip. Issues of Hormuz and Iran not something China considers important. China has an interest in a non-nuclear Iran, in no nuclear weapons proliferation. As the US has made this a priority China prefers to be not vocal on this issue, as it relies on the US to see this is done. A secondary priority for China is to have the US agree that China could continue to import from the Hormuz Straits to met its oil needs. As China has relations with Arab states it is carefully balancing this with relations with Iran. What does this mean? It means China and US are in considerable agreement on the current situation in the Gulf region and in the Middle East. China sees beyond Iran, so does the US. Both countries are focused on the future - on reindustrialization in the US and China on the next phase in its industrialization. New countries and blocs are also emerging that will rival China and the US- India/Japan and the European Union under leadership of Germany and France. These four countries or blocs are all thinking of the world beyond a failed Middle East- the economic issues they face and how best to tackle them, and the issues relating to borders and security, how best to tackle them. ...

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China is increasing use of domestic coal and reducing Australian coal imports in an effort to increase energy security and become self sufficient in coal. Spot price of thermal coal used to generate electricity is expected to drop by 39% in 2019. Coking coal used for steel production will decline by 38% as China uses more costly local coal and the steel industry in Europe, India and the U.S. lowers production with lower coal demand. The world consumed less coal in 2019 over 2018. Largely from less coal used in electricity generation which dropped by 2.5%.

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China places a ban on imports of coal, iron ore, wine and other products from Australia. China's largest imports from Australia are in coal and iron ore of $87 billion. China has targeted Australian exports that can be alternatively sourced or are produced domestically such as coal. Australian coal exports to China declined by 90% in 2020 over the prior year. China is the largest destination for Australian wine exports of $1.2 billion. Australia's call for an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus pandemic and new laws to curb foreign interference have resulted in deteriorating relations with China.

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India's 135 thermal power plants ahve just 4 days of coal stocks as of October 1, says the Financial Times, citing the power ministry. The power ministry has instructed plants to build up stocks. China is already facing a power shortage after coal fired plants were asked to cut down the use of coal to meet emissions targets. In early August coal fired plants in India had 13 days of stocks. With coal prices rising India did not buy enough coal to build up inventories. The manufacturing sector suffered a contraction in China for the first time since the pandemic started in 2020. China has instructed state owned energy companies to secure supplies of fossil fuel to prevent winter shortages. This further increased price of coal. Coal from Indonesia went up from $60 a ton in March to $200 a ton in September discouraging imports. The result is that with limited supplies and rising prices of coal India faces a perfect storm and power cutbacks as in China. ...

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Canada, Australia, India, Brazil have some of the largest reserves of rare earth and critical minerals. Brazil has second largest reserves. This means the US can still change the current situation of a near monopoly on critical minerals by China in coming years by making the necessary investments early in these countries and in the US itself. Here is the situation in Brazil for rare earths. Brazil has said it will be open to investments that place a priority on rare earths processing within Brazil, not just rare earths commodity exports for processing in the EU or the US. China does most of the processing of rare earths in China, it imports heavily from Burma, Indonesia, Australia and Africa and does nearly 100% of the processing in China using research labs and production facilities funded by PRC government. Yet the search for and development of supplies of rare earths and critical minerals is still at an early stage so that with the necessary investments including in India, Indonesia, Australia, Brazil, in Africa, and in the US, the US and Germany, EU, India can change this situation by 2030. Brazil hold 21 million tons of reserves of rare earths, about a quarter of world rare earths reserves. Just in the last 3 years since 2023 3000 permits have been filed with Brazil's National Mining Agency compared to 500 in years before this. Australia and India are also catching up in rare earths minerals investment. Australian producers Viridis and Meteoric are doing advanced work in Pocos de Caldas mining area in Brazil. Canada is doing a project in Golas state. US company Rare Earth is putting $2.8 billion in Serra Verde. All this is being pushed forward by fast track investing supported by the DJT US government. Serra Verde historically sent rare earths in commodity form to China. Now DJT administration has setup private and public financing for a 15 year supply agreement to the US. Australia's Viridis can also get funding from IDFC operated by the US with discussions underway. Viridis's $360 million  Colossus project in Brazil sends rare earth in commodity form to a French-Belgian processing company in the EU. Brazil cannot afford to be too restrictive when it comes to processing- though that remains its goal -as Brazil wants to use its advantages in rare earths to increase investments and export earnings to support its slowing economy. Over time Brazil as part of this western hemisphere and as shown in "Brazil no Espelhos" or "Brazil in the Mirror" by Felipe Nunes, discussed in the adjoining piece on Brazil, is a part of the same social fabric of the Americas and its economic structure, its supply chains, its business, its democratic framework and processes. ...

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Most of the Address followed a familiar pathabout the economy, about the reasons for the Iran war being the nuclear threat most of all, and the way the president has sought to tackle the threat of ballistic missiles that could soon reach US and Europe. It was an update one month into the war with Iran. One part of it showed a focus on keeping the war short compared to other conflicts and limiting US losses by being very careful on that point. DJT cited the wars of the past 1 year 7 months for WW1, 3 years and 8 months for WWII, Korean War 3 years and 1 month, that soon stretched on for decades in the conflicts that followed. Vietnam 18 years, Iraq 8 years- wars that dragged on and led to US losing its economic position as the strongest nation economically. This one with limited goals nuclear threat removal and ballistic missile removal as the key goals on for 32 days, and right from the start clearly setting what US would not do and do- not take on role of opening Straits of Hormuz and asking China, Britain, countries that get the oil from Hormuz to take this on as China and Japan get 90% of their oil imports from Hormuz Straits. US is self sufficient and does not need that oil from Hormuz. It was the message to the MAGA base that does not want this war to become like the ones carried on for 8 years by Bush and Obama in Iraq which they clearly reject- the bigger goal is the US economy and reindustrialization not the deindustrialization that happened under  Bush and Obama destroying the US industrial base while fighting wars in remote places.  It was also meant to counter the idea of a president not conscious of responsibilities for limiting the duration of the conflict by removing goals such as opening Hormuz Straits which would involve the US in something it does not need and is the job of other nations who need that oil like China, Japan, Britain and India. ...

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WSJ Editorial talks about so called "spending blowouts" of the Democrats in 2024. Are Republicans saying let the roads, bridges, airports, built in the 1940-1960's heyday of American industrialization as China and India's is now, let them crumble? What do the educated minds of the WSJ Board say about coal in China and India and their effects on their massive use multiple times that of US and EU in history, is it not damaging to the environment? And why the Chinese realized the health in North China with coal winter use was worse than in South China cut their coal use. Are they saying lets burn fossil fuels and ignore, and if investment has to be made in solar who is going to do it? Is it OK for Republicans that we just import from China all our solar panels indefinitely into the future? "Green New Deal" is just a perjorative term, policy has to be made thoughtfully and without prejudice or bias of any sort for the best that we can do for the American people, ignoring so called "right" or "left." Doing what is right, what makes sense, is a lot harder.   ...

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Total's new CEO, Patrick Pouyanne, is moving ahead with plans for the $27 billion Russian Arctic Yamal LNG project. As China shifts away from coal with increased imports of LNG and pipeline natural gas, it is keen on providing financing for the project. Chinese banks will provide the bulk of the financing. Pouyanne disclosed in an WSJ interview that this would be $15 billion in Chinese bank financing to be arranged in 2015. Most of the LNG will go to meet China's needs. Partners in the Yamal project are OAO Novatek of Russia, and China National Petroleum Corporation. OAO Novatek's major shareholder is on the western sanctions list making it difficult to obtain financing from western banks. This makes the project riskier because of foreign exchange risks taken on by Total SA which are to hedge against.

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One negative effect of the trade war with the U.S. is an increased emphasis on energy security and increased use of coal in China. After China committed to goals for climate change coal use declined in 2014, after reaching a high in 2013. The attack on Saudi oil facilities showed risk in its reliance on Saudi oil. China's import dependency for oil reached an all time high of 72% in 2018, according to BP 2019 Statistical Review. Gradually the commitment to climate change and lower use of coal has changed since 2016 with the withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris Climate Change Agreement. Initially after the U.S. withdrawal under president Trump China made bold commitment to lead the fight against climate change but has since wavered. In an October 2019 speech Premier Li Kequiang called for the development of the coal industry to ensure energy security.  As China's economy slowed in 2019 in the face of U.S. tariffs and a trade war with the U.S. efforts are being made to increase infrastructure investment which has driven coal use higher. China's steel output reached a record of 750 million metric tons in 2019. The amount of coal fired capacity under construction in China now exceeds the rest of the world combined, much of it from plants permitted before 2017, according to Global Energy Monitor. China is also expected to become the world's largest importer of natural gas by 2020. Even the Russian gas fields from Siberia supply only a fifth of China's energy demands in 2020.  China has made large strides in renewable energy helping it meet its Paris Agreement targets. Renewable energy is about 10% of China's energy mix, but its use showed growth of 29% in 2018, making up half of the world's growth. China's use of coal in the energy mix has dropped to 58% in 2018 from 72% in 2008, according to BP 2019 Statistical Review, as a result of renewable energy investments. At the Madrid Climate Conference China renewed its commitment to the Paris Climate Change Agreement. Now it is a balancing act keeping in mind energy security and economic growth along with the need for clear skies and better air quality. ...

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Shortages of natural gas lead to a 40% rise in prices. China is bidding high for gas supplies as it faces shortages of natural gas for heating during the coming winter. The UK and Europe also face shortages. Russia has the largest reserves of natural gas and is by far the largest producer. The start of the undersea Nordstream 2 pipeline avoids use of existing Russian pipeline through Ukraine. It is seen as a way to bring in more supplies to Europe.

Australia is another large producer of natural gas. China is now changing its import ban of Australian coal and natural gas as it faces a cold winter.

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The U.S. and China sign Phase 1 of the trade agreement in a sign of reduction of trade tensions between the two countries. Difficult issues of state subsidies under China's state enterprise model of development, and technological competition were put off for the future. China made the deal possible by agreeing to double its purchases of agricultural products, and offering to purchase about $200 billion in American goods and services over the next two years. This gives relief to farmers, a key part of Mr.Trump's support base. This also helps achieve a key Trump and U.S. goal of cutting the U.S. trade deficit with China quickly, just as happened decades ago with Japan.  See the related article and link on how for the first time in decades China's trade surplus with the U.S. is now set on a path for permanent decline. It dropped significantly in 2019 by 12.5% even though China's imports from the U.S. dropped by 21%, based on Chinese customs data released for 2019. With China increasing these imports significantly and the U.S. holding on to tariffs of 25% on $250 billon of China's exports to the U.S. which are outside the Phase 1 agreement, the downward course is set for the next few years for correction of a dangerous trade imbalance. That imbalance was allowed to develop over successive Republican and Democratic administrations. China already has the European Union as its first leading trading partner and south east Asia as its second. China plans to not be so closely intertwined with the U.S. in trade, and yet preserve its state sponsored development model and drive to compete in technology. China's increased purchases from the U.S. of $200 billon are broken down in terms of farm products- $32 billion, manufactured goods- $80 billion, energy products- $50 billion, services $35 billion. In effect the U.S. gets its goal of cutting the unsustainable China trade surplus quickly and with certainty in 3-5 years. China uses the period to transition for less trade linkage with the U.S. yet preserving its state sponsored model of development and drive for technological advancement.   ...

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Greg Ip of the WSJ says a second term of former president Trump would look very different from the first. Republicans achieved their goal of tax reform in the first two years of that term. Following that trade tariffs ensued against China creating a different environment in world trade. A second term would lead to more action on trade and more tariffs. Ip says the former president could impose tariffs on all Chinese imports and this would lead to retaliatory tariffs from China and be met with EU retaliatory action in a tit for tat manner. The result would be disruption in world trade and affect the world economy. Higher inflation could also be result of such disruptions.

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The new set of sanctions imposed by the United Nations on North Korea would mean the loss of about $1 billion from exports. China's support was won by delaying sanctions on Chinese banks that do business with North Korea. The sanctions prohibit all exports of iron ore, coal, and seafood. Exports of coal to China have come down from earlier efforts, the new restrictions will tighten the sanctions. Two areas that remain are the remittances of Korean workers overseas, for which a limit is set, and the Chinese crude oil exports to North Korea. Experts say this leaves some areas untouched. Chinese banks are critical to North Korea's access to foreign exchange, and oil imports from China are also critical.

 

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The coronavirus is making implementation of the U.S. China trade deal less likely as Chinese imports from the U.S. decrease and China's exports continue to grow. China's exports to U.S. decreased by $60 billion but increased to other countries by $70 billion in 2019.

As a result the Trump administration is shifting its focus to another approach. The new multilateral approach is to combine the effort with allies Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and France. This would take the shape of a Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership to replace the old Obama period Trans Pacific Partnership which becomes defunct. The goal would be to build new supply chains with allies in Asia outside of China with the help of France and other countries that are wary of excessive dependence on China and have deep reservations of China's handling of the coronavirus outbreak.

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The U.S. trade deficit with China was declining till the coronavirus hit in February. Now it is back on the way up, a warning signal for the Trump administration as it seeks to stop sending American wealth out of the country in an utterly disproportionate way of $346 billion in just 2019 after taking action on tariffs and renegotiating trade agreements.  Imports grew 11% in July to $231 billion. While exports increased but not as much by 8.1% to $168 billion in July, still well below February/s $209 billion. That leaves a trade gap of $63 billion. This is the largest trade deficit since July 2008. The U.S. trade deficit is a major issue and is watched carefully as the Trump administration sets a goal of rebalancing world trade so that the U.S. no longer runs such large trade deficits with China, and Germany, and does not shift wealth overseas. The U.S. trade deficit with China in 2019 was $346 billion, with Japan and Germany it is much smaller close to $70 billion for each country. The Trump administration goal is to all out reduce this deficit through trade agreements and other actions that stop the current outflow of U.S. wealth overseas by $1 billion a day to just one country. For this it seek a level playing field which means other countries have to face tariffs if they unfairly subsidize their industries or violate labor rights for unfair competition, or in other ways seek to unfairly gain an advantage over the U.S. including through transfer of technologies from the U.S. ...

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The WSJ Editorial Board speaking for the business community traditional Republican groups finally takes up the election on issues of policy difference between Trump run Republican party and Harris run Democratic Party which it should have from Day One. The former president says something that has never happened in the last hundred years- policy will be decided after the election depending on what he decides to do. Cost of Living action is No 1 on voter priorities. "Drill, Baby Drill," is the whole Republican party platform for cost of living action. What is the Harris Democrats policy plan for cost of living action? WSJ says it is spending blowouts that caused inflation, the Green New Deal, entitlement expansions and student loan forgiveness.The real reason for the increase in cost of living comes from the overconcentration of supply chain by American business in China, on which every president Bush, Obama, Trump, did little or nothing. The lack of an effective vaccination program and ineffective vaccines in China by 2021 and 2022 led to the loss of the supplies from China leading to shortages for automobiles parts and other supplies and surge in prices in 2021-2023. Powell and the US central bank correctly raised rates but cautiously and waited for this to correct, president Biden brought manufacturing home through huge investments called the "spending blowout" that brought down the inflation from 9% to 3%. Some of that "spending blowout" went to chips and science to correct the errors of American Business and Reagan-Friedman theory of the Republican party that created this problem with a culture of utter  indifference to the ultimate costs of who makes what and where. The Inflation Reduction Act also tackled higher health and other costs paid by American workers and families, and invested in public services and in repairing the dilapidated crumbling American infrastructure. Are Republicans saying let the roads, bridges, airports, built in the 1940-1960's heyday of American industrialization as China and India's is now, let them crumble? What do the educated minds of the WSJ Board say about coal in China and India and their effects on their massive use multiple times that of US and EU in history, is it not damaging to the environment and why the Chinese realized the health in North China with coal winter use was worse than in South China cut their coal use. Are they saying lets burn fossil fuels and ignore, and if investment has to be made in solar who is going to do it? Is it Ok for Republicans thet we just import from China all our solar panels indefinitely into the future. "Green New Deal" is just a perjorative term, policy has to be made thoughtfully and without prejudice or bias of any sort for the best that we can do for the American people, ignoring so called "right" or "left." Doing what is right, what makes sense, is a lot harder.     ...

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Indonesia's commodities boom for coal, natural gas and palm oil is not benefitting the majority of the 230 million people in Indonesia's countryside, as India, China and other countries import large quantities of the commodities, especially coal for energy hungry India and China. Even with tariffs on export of palm oil these countries can absorb the added costs from exporters in Indonesia. This means higher food and cooking oil prices in a largely rural country.

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The new faces in the Biden administration on economic policy are Janet Yellen, as head of the central bank, the Federal Reserve, and Cecilia Rouse, a Princeton labor economist, as head of the Council of Economic Advisors. In this report WSJ looks at the economic policies of the new administration after Mr. Trump rejected globalization and international trade agreements that were not in America's interest or that hurt American workers.  Informal conversations with experts suggest WSJ says, that globalization is now suspect as a way that benefitted China and other countries including Germany, and hurt the U.S. France, Britain and other countries in Europe that were not strong exporters. This hurt their industries which were eroded by imports resulting in the three decades long destruction of communities across these countries that depended on manufacturing. It has also hurt countries like India that let their markets be dominated by Chinese imports, with a reversal of policy in 2020 with self reliant economy under "Atman Nirbhar" policy as the new goal. Mr. Trump's tactic in this trade war was to fight back to regain America's position in manufacturing with tariffs on imports. The trade deficit had to come down with China just as it had done with Japan decades earlier. This was starting to happen. One problem in bringing down the imports was the increase in the value of the dollar, as Janet Yellen has noted. The new policies will look at what the effective policy will be while keeping this goal in mind.  Both Yellen and Ms. Rouse have spent years studying labor markets and Ms. Rouse is quoted here as saying: " With open trade there are winners and losers. The losers are really losing, and we need to take care of them and take on more nuanced models of international trade as a result." Other experts from the earlier Democratic administrations such as Prof. Frankel at Harvard say that there needs to be increased focus on American workers left behind by trade, technology and unequal education, with more spending on preschool, infrastructure and health. All this suggests that there will be a continuation of U.S. policy in challenging Chinese use of globalization to advance its interests, chastening Americans on the use of the very word globalization which can mean different things to different people based on how they can gain advantage. The word may even be entirely dropped in favor of what the policies are and what they do for the American worker, American communities including small towns, and the American people, spelling each of these out every time supply chains and the global economy is mentioned. The new administration will get an opportunity to show that it too can come up with new ideas and action plan to strengthen American manufacturing and jobs. It will also have to show substantial results as people have lost patience with Democrats and Republicans on the lack of progress in rebuilding America's leadership role in the world economy, and in defending American workers and factories. Clinton, Obama and Bush all offered false promises on trade with China ignoring the damage this had done to American leadership in the world economy. Clinton with support for China's entry into the World Trade Organization, Bush with foreign wars and costly diversions and regulatory failures with banks that led to the 2009 deep recession hurting Americans, and Obama with the lack of will and interest in America's leadership role in the world as the dominant nation in manufacturing,   ...

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Research shows that some countries will benefit more than others through climate change action for net zero emissions by 2050. India, Argentina, Britain and European Union, Japan and South Korea will be able to reduce imports of fossil fuels and invest in infrastructure, renewable energy, and create jobs in new sectors. Countries that depend on fossil fuel exports Australia, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Gulf states, will see much of their coal, oil and natural gas assets, left in the ground. The US and Canadian shale oil producers will also be affected, along with Chinese producers but with a broadly diversified economy the US and China will continue to grow. This paper with lead author from University of Exeter, in Nature, shows $11 trillion in stranded fossil fuel assets left in the ground by 2036 for major oil producing countries under the most probable scenario.  This means the transition will have to be carefully handled as some states such as Texas, Alberta will be hit hard in North America. The paper also shows that countries that are major oil and gas exporters such as Russia and Saudi Arabia will not be pioneers or push aggressively for climate change in the way the European Union, Britain, and India are doing at COP26 because of this problem of stranded fossil fuel assets left in the ground. China and the US have strong renewable energy sectors and will join the EU, Britain and India. ...

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Barton Swaim editorial page writer of the WSJ on Vladimir Putin Weekend Interview with Beatrice de Graaf of Utrecht Uiversity and Niels Drost of Clingendael Institute in The Hague, Netherlands - how Western World missed Czar Peter the Great's World View and its shaping Putin's World View creating vast misconceptions when US thinks Russia thinks like western norms.  Could the US have missed a key component of the thinking of Russian leaders in putting themselves in the line of Russian kings (Czars) since the Enlightenment with belief in nationality, autocracy and Empire of the Enlightenment. “Of course he (Putin) also refers to the Second World War, and he does refer to Stalin—but not that much. Far more often he talks about the great Russian czars.” And the great Czars that was important to Putin, de Graaf counts 3000 statues built in Russia to these role models for Putin. In the early years says de Graaf Putin talked incessantly about the modernization of Russia, Russia joining the Modern World in the years of the Enlightenment, Russia fighting off Napoleon and under the Soviets Nazi Germans. Graaf says he talked about- “Peter the Great and European interests, of Catherine the Great and literacy and the Enlightenment. He spoke of Alexander I and Europe joining to defeat Napoleon." Deep down Putin felt in these talks 11,000 of them on the Putin site which puts up his speeches and talks over a 20 year period, which Niels Grost with his fluency in Russian has looked at. Of these 3000 talks and speeches are in this reference to the great Czars. Even before Ukraine there was a sense of hurt that considering the vast expanse that Russia occupies in Europe Russia had by restoring the old Russia by 2000 found itself in a odd predicament. As de Graaf and Swain point out the US market based economy based on GDP, the US presidents such as Bush and Obama saw Russia as a  middle power based on its exports and imports, its trade, its commerce which was the only way they could see the world. This led to a special kind of shortsightedness says this interview in the WSJ. Putin's key adviser says of Russia's goal - to be seen as a Northern European Power (from WSJ) in 2025.Putin sees Russia as looking for "respect," as a goal.  This is where US business may have got it all wrong- the authors say about China and India- and the US, seeing themselves as Empires not in today's Modern World as with imperialist ambitions, but with a historic sense of regional presence across Asia and North America with their rapid modernization. DJT's talk of Canada as a 51st state, one finds US business as accepting the idea that Canada is part of the US regional influence. And under the Monroe Doctrine of 1824 revived by no less than Teddy Roosevelt and FDR, in its cooperation form by JFK in 1960, the regional influence of the United States in the Western Hemisphere is also accepted by US business and the American public. It is this context that the authors say offer an alternative view of the Russian leader and his policies. Beatrice de Graaf and Niels Drost are the author of "Putin's Czarist Dream" At that point there is in addition to nationality, autocracy and Empire of the czars the ideas embedded in Eastern Orthodox Christianity which are different says de Graaf of Utrecht University in Netherlands, from Western Christianity. This Eastern Orthodox Christian idea is a bit different from St. Augustine's just war and discussion of what constitutes a just war, and the definition of that being given under Russian tradition by Russian Czars or leaders who Putin identifies himself with such as Peter the Great. Peter the Great  created the beginnings of Russia as a modern European state in St. Petersburg during the years of the Enlightenment. In the Eastern Asian tradition the Bhagavad Gita also has a discussion of what constitutes a just war so that it extends to different regions of the world not just European. ...

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Experts at the East-West Center in Honolulu, say China will add about 55 million barrels to its strategic reserves in 2012, which is another factor that will keep oil prices high in 2012. A number of new storage locations are coming on stream to store the additional reserves. China imported 5.57 millon barrels a day in March 2012, an increase of 8.7% from the prior year month. Oil imports for the 1st quarter of 2012 increased by 11% over the prior year quarter, according to China's General Administration of Customs. This is a much faster pace than imports in 2011, which increased by 6%. China is building its strategic reserves to reach a goal of 90 days supply similiar to the U.S. strategic reserves. Lu Tienan, director of China's National Energy Administration, said at a conference in the first week of April that current total oil stocks, including strategic and commercial are enough for 40 days. It is doing this in the face of higher oil prices, because of the threat of sanctions against Iran's nuclear program could lead to a cutoff of Iranian supplies. China's oil imports from Iran were 11% of total imports in 2011, making this an urgent priority for China. Estimates of the East-West Center are for crude oil imports at an average of 5.77 million barrels a day in 2012, an increase of 13% over 2011. International Energy Agency estimates are for China's total oil demand for 2012 to be 9.9 million barrels a day in 2012, an increase of 6% over 2011....