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The Musk View - the Open AI lawsuit case against Sam Altman was about looting a charity by the founders. Basically Musk is saying he gave OpenAI $38 million and became one of its founders because of its non-profit business, not because it was afor profit business which would have raised many questions about the risks of for profits doing the wrong things with AI just for profit. Then Sam Altman breaks the promise of staying non-profit for his personal for profit gain, turns it into a for profit without answering any of the questions raised about the dangers of AI without regulatory safeguards into something worse than social media apps that spread fake news endangering democracies, and endangering education of a young generation, mental health risks for girls and children. Competition with China- in China much of it is controlled by the state and the state imposed limits on social media, to protect China's children and young people's educational needs. Tim Higgins says Musk lost but proved his point anyway on X and in the media so much so that speakers at commencements in American universities are being regularly booed  when they bring up AI.  Public perceptions have still not been shaped by the real issue - the massive misallocation of funds, the dubious propositions, the lack of normal financial scrutiny for return on investment that is supposed to happen in well run financial markets, ( is it or is it not a market system in the US as oligopolies are not free market systems), the failure to prove that the investments are viable by a long shot. Banks and capital markets are distorted in lending trillions of dollars to AI companies that cannot justify the investments on financial grounds of return in investment. Returns to the Nation and the American people, as well as financial returns are far better in rebuilding the  broken down infrastructure that America needs rebuilt, in investing in the industries that create jobs and strengthen competing with China and EU. How can the huge misallocation to AI of trillions of dollars, putting a burden on utilities to supply electricity for AI, and the distortion in capital markets to direct that money to infrastructure building and industrial renewal, be corrected? WSJ reports that there is a huge skeptical public on this issue. It is shown in Pew Research and Pew has not asked the question about alternative investments that are being starved of capital in what America desperately needs for reindustrialization and job creation, income creation, competition with China and the EU.   ...

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About half of private equity investors have money tied up in zombie funds in 2024 according to JP Morgan Chase. US state and local governments manage about $5 trillion in pension money. Large public pension funds have 14% of their money in private equity. And large corporate pension funds have 13% in private equity. California's worker pension fund will have put more money into its private equity part of its investments than it gets out 8 years in a row. CALPERS and California Teachers Pension funds are funds which have take out loans of 5% to 10% of fund holdings to deal with problems of private equity investment. Pension funds are selling private equity funds takin a hit. At a time when retirees such as teachers and public sector employees are facing cost of living and high healthcare costs they can ill afford such losses showing how widespread capital misallocation is today. 

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Three factors make up risk in diversification and risk reduction through bonds in 2025 with the estimated 1.5 -3 trillion in spending planned by 2030 with $400 billion in 2025 alone. AI in corporate bond indexes up to 15% and reach 20% by 2030 vs 40% of stock indexes (JP Morgan),  AI risk in bonds diversification from over issuance and downgrades is something to look at. One cannot assume bonds will reduce risk in the same way as before with overissuance of corporate bonds to power AI spending by Tech companies. There is also the risk to the Nation in the massive capital misallocation of funds that will crowd out essential spending in the crumbling infrastructure of the Nation, in education and healthcare, that degrade American leadership in industry, science and technology.

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The huge losses at Credit Suisse after the collapse of Archegos Capital Management. One more instance of misallocation of funds in the way capital markets are functioning today at the expense of much needed infrastructure health and other needs of countries in Europe.

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With the natural disasters following one after the other as hurricanes Milton and Helene have done in Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, the dire disaster funding situation at FEMA in 2024 needs to be tackled. The Nation is throwing dollars in wasted spending with capital market misallocation at a time when no provision is made for climate change action in disaster relief. To compound the insult AI billionaires are asking for the equivalent of the GDP of many European nations to fund AI for profit.

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It costs about 8 million pounds for maintenance of St Paul's Cathedral. St Paul's Cathedral income declined by 90% as the pandemic led to fewer visitors and ticket sales. The government provides 3.3 million pounds from its culture recovery fund. Because this is not enough for maintenance, much less the 15 million pounds needed for the repair of the 17th century lead roof, one of England's best known cathedrals had to dip into and nearly exhaust its reserve funds. If this is the condition of St Paul's one can imagine what decades of misallocation of capital have done in the rest of the country. St Paul's Cathedral remained a defiant symbol of British resistance in the Second World War during the Battle of Britain.  The dean of the cathedral Very Rev. David Ison says "if we don't have the resources to pay for heating and lighting we may have to close our doors." Imagine closing England's most famous cathedral and symbol of its spirit for lack of funds. Notre Dame Cathedral by contrast in Paris is being renovated with $100 million euros donated by two French businessmen and $700 million pledged so far to rebuilding and renovation of Notre Dame. ...

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The retrieval of $4 billion in  capital from SPAC misallocation of capital back to HEIRS- Health, Education, Infrastructure, Retirees, and Societal needs leading to much needed Upward Mobility in 2022. WiIliam Ackman says he is returning the capital for this SPAC after failing to find companies that meet investment criteria. This SPAC hedge fund raised $4 billion on the New York Stock Exchange in July 2020 as an Initial Public Offering.

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Daniel Henninger says in the WSJ that the debt ceiling will be raised, and Republicans should not be pitting program against program. He says the narrative though should be framed around the trillions being spent by the Biden administration on climate change action, US manufacturing and technology in chips, with interest on debt at over $400 billion a year. Yet this does not take into account that for two decades there has been an overcrowding of US government initiated capital investment for essential needs by massive Tech industry misallocation of funds even as productivity of this capital invested by tech was dropping, with much wasted capital. Today because these essential needs in infrastructure and for manufacturing and technology were starved for so long of capital the productivity of capital in these areas is high and will have ripple effects to help rebuild America.

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Putting 300,000 children in poverty, affecting 1.6 million families, that is the cost of the two child benefits cap of Tory finance minister under Cameron, Osborne. The cost 1.7 billion pounds when 18 billion pounds of debt was added to the debt of company running the British water utility Thames Water, with a chunk of it to to pay dividends, that was privatized in 1989, as shown in the Guardian. Leading to its inability to make the investment needed and to the water quality issues in the Thames river. Thames Water is near financial collapse with parent company defaulting on its debt in April, according to the Guardian. The misallocation of funds under the Tories is a warning about what happens under Reagan/Friedman economic theory that has become part of the existing culture and damaged the economy in the US and Europe. These are what the King's Speech called "the scars of 14 years where politics (and economic theory) was put above the national interest, and decline deep in the marrow of our institutions." It is a time for deep reflection on what has happened. ...

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This report in the WSj looks at the Silicon valley approach of pursuing rapid torrential growth at any cost. It shows the victims as investors looking for outsize returns to the point of turning their attention from the facts showing the products as highly hyped improperly as tech for WeWork or having health risks in alternative smoking products in the case of Juul Labs Inc. Both company CEO's were asked to resign. This discussion is on the the limited number of new ideas as the tech really creative stuff  peters out and the tens of billions of dollars pursuing a few ideas even if they as in the case of WeWork basically a real estate company subleasing space were not really tech. The neglect of top priorities in infrastructure, in priorities for health, education and other pressing needs are a result of the misallocation of capital by capital markets structures of funds, banks and investors. Juul started at Stanford University and quickly raised $14 billion. Soon three million high schoolers in the U.S. were using the vaping product as e-cigarettes causing alarmed parents to bring up the issue and the Food and Drug Administration to look into it. As the tech boom results in fewer new ideas practices fail to change in the allocation of capital and wasted capital, resulting in gross neglect of priorities for infrastructure, health and education, wide gaps in income.   ...

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Warnings to governments and leaders in industry and pharmaceutical research about epidemic preparedness by Bill Gates were ignored. He spent hundreds of millions of dollars to develop new vaccines and create disease tracking systems. But only governments could tackle this problem. He tells the WSJ in an interview that he feels terrible and that he wishes he had done more. His fear that a once in a century pandemic has come true. Governments did respond to the public health preparation needs as reported in France 24 to both SARS and the H1N1, both in Britain and France. It was the disbanding of this effort in the period of the global financial crisis and the eurozone financial crisis that led to the level of unpreparedness that Western Europe finds itself in today. This was caused by irresponsible banking practices. The response was austerity measures in Britain, France, Germany and Spain that led to leaving public health system investment being neglected, without fixing the original source of the problem. Misallocation of capital and lopsided priorities continued through most of the period leading up to the pandemic. There is a lot that Gates and other public spirited leaders could do now do in the new reordering of priorities and shifting the allocation of capital to public services and investments in infrastructure, and supply chain renewal to safeguard national interests. Today he is working with pharmaceutical executives and governments to produce billions of doses of vaccines while they are being tested. His foundation has reserved space in a manufacturing plant so that production can begin quickly once an effective vaccine is found. He says nobody has made 7 billion vaccines so that it will need all the help that it can get and international cooperation.  In an earlier interview with WSJ he told the interviewer in November 2014 that the world as a whole did not have preparedness. France and Britain prepared and then abandoned the effort for epidemic response by 2012 following the global financial and eurozone financial crises. Gates repeated the warning to 2016 presidential candidates in the U.S.  In 2017 at the Munich Security Conference he reminded people- "getting ready for a global pandemic is every bit as important as nuclear deterrence and avoiding a climate catastrophe." One focus of Gates was to come up with faster ways to a vaccine by using ready made components and then customizing it. This is an approach being adopted today by Oxford scientists and by Quidel Corp. in the U.S.   ...

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In nominal terms China's currency, the yuan, appreciated by 3.7% in 2011. The real effective exchange rate, measured on a trade weighted basis and adjusted for relative consumer prices is the more significant rate. The real rate shows the yuan up by 5.3% in 2011, according to the Bank for International Settlements. In November 2011 the yuan appeared to be weakening, and China's prime minister, Wen Jiabao, says China wants to see the renminbi more flexible "in either direction."

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The Economist points out that China's total debt of government, corporate and households has grown by about 100% of GDP since 2008. The 2009 crisis led to rapid increase in debt. It is now about 250% of GDP, according to the Economist. Slower growth of below 7% risks reducing China's ability to service this debt. About half of this debt is owed by state owned companies and property developers. China can use its sovereign reserves to continue supporting bank and state owned companies. Investor's are pricing bank shares to reflect about 10% of this debt as bad debt even though government estimates are much lower. The reserves provided China time to fix the banking system since 2008, yet the debt keeps growing and China has failed to take strong action in the last 6 years. Complacency is a problem, and the incentives for local governments to continue prior practices that increase debt continue. As Krugman and other experts have pointed out at some point the rules of finance will apply to China as they have for other countries that faced a debt crisis- Japan in the late 1980's, South Korea and other Aisan countries in 1997, and the U.S. in 2008. Even without a crisis through deft managemen and use of reserves China risks zombifying the economy as old loans are backed up by new loans, with the further risk of misallocation of capital or poor use of capital. This lowers productivity of capital and hurts development. With poor statistics such as the figure of 1% of debt being bad debt cited here, the problems of complacency can be magnified, as there is less reason for a strong response....