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A Peterson Institute of International Economics study on the TPP trade agreement shows it would reduce growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector by a fifth, according to this report in the NYT. Workers incomes and job losses in manufacturing are a key concern for voters and account for the surge in polls for Trump and Sanders in the U.S. presidential election of 2016. All four leading candidates Clinton, Sanders, Trump and Cruz oppose the TPP agreement. Congress will wait till after the election to decide. This is a big issue today because about 5 million jobs have been lost in 1977-2014, according to the Alliance for American Manufacturing. The Peterson study predicts job losses of 50,000 a year, yet another study by Tufts University predicts job losses of 450,000 a year. Another study by the Economic Policy Institute study shows other damaging effects such as labor's share of national income declining from the TPP.

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The views of Timothy Geithner, president of the New York Fed, of Robert Steel Undersecretary of the Treasury, and of r Schwartz of Bear Stearns and Dimon of Chase JP Morgan and Ben Bernanke in answering questing at a key congessional hearing of the Senate banking Committee about the Bear Stearns collapse. The $2 a share was determined after Geithner and Paulson knew that JP Morgan was prepared to bid $2 a share, and Paulson saw the need to keep the price as low as a higher price would create the possibility of moral hazard. Dimon's view he was buying a house on fire and he had to do in 48 hours what it would take a month to do, Schwartz, view the rumors did Bearn Stearns in ans set the stage for a bank run, Geithner's view the Fed would not have lent money to Bear Stearns directly under its new policy of lending to investment banks because it felt very uncomfortable about Bear Stearns knowing what it knew at the time. Officials say that the first $1 billion in losses from Bear Stearns would be borne by JP Morgan and after the $10 a share upgrading of the Chase offer the Fed lent $25 billion to Bear Stearns/Chase to complete the deal separate from the $30 billion Fed support of the original deal. Fed disclosed that securities firms borrowed an average of $38.1 billion a day through the week ending Wednesday and direct lending to tradtional borrowerswent up dramatically to $7 billion a day up from $550 million a day the previous week and the highest level since 9/11. Ben Bernanke's view it was action necessary in the interest of the American economy, and the bailout of Bear Stearns was a bailout of the markets in general. This includes Asian markets because the pressure was to do something before Asian markets opened Sunday night....

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Russian economy is faltering under the strain of the global financial crisis. The stock market is plunging, with the RTS Index down 19% on October 6, 2008, and the market down 60% since the high in May, 2008. Construction spending is winding down. Th economy growth rate was 8.1% in 2007 but its slipping. If oil prices hit $50 and they were already at $78 on October 10, 2008, then says Anders Aslund at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, there will be a sharp decline in the growth rate. Moscow analysts say the growth rate could drop to 4%. For Americans Russia may seem remote excpt for investors. But in a global economy there are connections to emerging markets and Russia is one big emerging market, next to China, India and Brazil. When General Motors shares dropped 31% and Ford's 22% on one day on October 9, 2008, the news that spooked the markets was ofcourse a credit watch and questions about liquidity from Standard and Poors rating agency, but alsoimportant was that the one bright spot for GM and Ford in Europe and in Russia in particular was disappearing as GM sales declined in Europe and in Russia. In the prior 12 months GM had seen sales jump by 40% in Russia giving it 10% of a car market that passed Germany recently as the largest car market in Europe. Couple of important things about Russia. Russians today are big spenders, savings are small and Russians do not trust their banks so bank deposits are very low. Household deposits are equivalent of 17% of GDP, compared with 45% in the USA. Only 4% of Russians trust commercial banks according to a poll by National Financial Research Agency in Moscow. So Russia depends on the outside world for much odf the cash flowing through its financial system. Foreigners purchased two thirds of the $170 billion in bonds isued by Russian companies and foreign banks put up half of the accumulated $900 billion in bank loans including almost all longterm debt estimates Moscow investment bank Troika Dialog. With global credit markets in a lockdown mode Russia is simply running short of cash. The government has $560 billion in foreign exchange reserves from years of high oil prices plus $160 billion in two sovereign wealth funds with most of this money in fixed income securities abroad as a rainy day cushion should oil prices tumble. On October 7 the governmet announced $36 billion in emergency loans to Russian banks following earlier pledges in September of $150 billion in loans and relief for Russian companies in danger of defaulting on international debts. One danger here is that about 55% of outstanding corporate loan are of maturity less than 1 year. One of Russia's largest developers Mirax Group is putting 50 projects on hold as bank financing for developers has almost ceased. On the other hand Russia's financial sector is relatively small and the credit crisis cannot hurt Russia as much as it will USA ad Europe. Bank loans account for 10% of corporate finance and the bond market is only a decade old, so about half of all capital investment by companies comes from retained earnings. And Russia has huge needs for investments in infrastructure after years of underinvestment, a stable political structure, an educated workforce, and an economy that is just getting started. As Secretary Paulson answered questions after the G7 meeting October 10, this was another point on the minds of the secretary and questoners, the hope that emerging markets like Russia, India, and China would continue to grow though slower than before, even as the US and Europe slipped into a long recession, and provide a little cushion to the global economy....

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Compared to the situation in 2008-2009 during the global financial crisis with the excess supply of labor, China in 2012 faces an excess in demand for labor. In 2009 about 20% of migrant workers were unemployed when the crisis hit, and wages dropped 10% for migrant workers, according to the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Stanford University. The situation three years later is one of tight labor markets and higer wages. A large stimulus in not only not needed today in the way it was in 2008-2009 as a way to maintain social stability, it would reduce the benefits of the anti-inflationary steps taken in 2011-2012, by putting more pressure on wages and prices. Manufacturing sector wages increased by 20.1% in 2011, according to China's statistics bureau. This may be why the Chinese government is taking measured steps to avoid creating more bad loans through indiscriminate lending, and being more selective in accelerating development projects in the pipeline. According to Hong Kong's new Chief Executive Officer China plans to have about 7% growth. This shift in approach would help China refocus on growth strategies recommended in the recent Development Reform Commission and World Bank Report on China....

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The WSJ's Troianovski and Benoit's interview with German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier. Steinmeier served as foreign minister eight years ago in a prior four year term. Steinmeier says he does not know whether he would have taken such an active role 8 years ago in diplomacy and talks with other countries, given the German public's reluctance to take an active role in world affairs. He and chancellor Merkel are much more active and the chancellor has been vocal about Germany's position in a way that Germans are not accustomed to. This has led to criticism inside Germany about Germany's role. A poll by TNS Infratest Policy Research in spring 2014 shows that only 37% of Germans say they want to see Germany more engaged in international crises. The same poll conducted recently showed the results were still the same, little change in how Germans see their post World War II role. Steinmeier says this is the difficulty he faces, to do what is needed as crises happen and call for a German role, presenting no real alternatives. He has on his desk at the foreign ministry a color lithograph of Social Democratic Chancellor, and Mayor of Berlin during the Cold War, Willy Brandt, with Brandt's words from 1969- "We want to be and to become a nation of good neighbors, internally and outwardly." Steinmeier expresses disappointment with the recurring crises in Ukraine, and says he can only guess Russian intentions, that Russia is looking for international respect and recognition. German business critics point to lower exports to Russia. And most Germans prefer that Germany maintain a peaceful role without foreign engagements. Sanctions that hurt the Russian economy are not seen as part of the German role, but Steinmeier who headed the chancellery during Gerhard Schroeder's term as chancellor from 1998-2005, says in the long term Germany has to support a world with rules. It should be mentioned that Willy Brandt as Mayor of Berlin 1957-1966 during the Eisenhower and Kennedy administrations was internationally engaged in a way that goes even beyond Steinmeier's engagement today....

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This editorial in the Economist looks at China's relationship with Russia. It says the Ukraine conflict and western sanctions have resulted in Russia moving closer to China. Yet the two countries have competing interests in central Asia, and different relations with India and Vietnam, in the Asian region. Russia is also wary of China copying designs of Sukhoi aircraft in sales to China of advanced military technology. The major oil and gas deal signed in 2014 provides Russia with a new outlet for oil and gas with the cooling of the relationship with Europe. Yet Russia has strong ties built with Germany over the entire post war period, and differences have emerged in U.S.- German relations. Germany's relationship with Russia- cooled by sanctions and German wariness over Russian intervention in Ukraine and Russian wariness over NATO close to its borders- spans 7 decades and is likely to remain strong in the long term. This comes from the shared sense of awareness of the terrible conflicts of an earlier period, just as it has for French-German relations, and from the strong efforts made by Germany to preserve the relationship and peace in Europe. Chinese president Xi's visit to Moscow on May 9, for celebrations of victory over Nazi Germany, will be followed by a visit May 10 by Chancellor Merkel of Germany. A factor in German-Russian relations is the close trade links, cultural exchanges, and history going back to the GDR where Chancellor Merkel is from, built up over many years, that are likely to set the long term future of relations. China's dominant partner relationship in the China- Russia relations does not bode well for the future of relations, compared to the equal partner relations with its European neighbor, Germany. In this different light Ukraine is a temporary pause, in German-Russian relations and peace in Europe, a situation which is in China's long term interest as it focusses on its economy and the next phase of development for a modernized economy. Especially as China continues to build on its own vital trade relations with Germany and the European Union, the latest example being Germany, other EU nations, and India, joining the China sponsored Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. ...

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A reminder from a veteran of investing about the enthusiasm and euphoria of Mr. Market, the term Benjamin Graham, author of the Intelligent Investor, used to describe the collective emotions of the people in the market during times of overoptimism when prices of shares have overextended and are overpriced. Graham warned of Mr Market in 1945, 1959, and in 1971, each time the market swooned and faltered. Zweig of the WSJ, points out data from Robert Shiller of Yale, the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 index jumping from 13.1 to 15.5 since March 2009, in 3 months. Ofcourse, this required aspecial disposition. Being well read and immersed in literature, mathematics and philosophy, helps to view things "from the standpoint of eternity, rather than day to day." And having a sense of detachment, a "certain aloofness," and "unruffled serenity." Graham mentions his internal equipment, his "embracing stoicism as a gospel sent to him from heaven." So Zweig again reminds investors on behalf of Graham as it were, and cautions about the mood swings ocurring lately from despair to a sudden optimism, which he describes as an insecure and desperate need to believe that things have taken a new turn when on closer examination things have only been papered over. Actually when one looks closely the credit tightening has eased by resolute action from the Fed and the Treasury and the Obama administration. But the underlying problem behind toxic mortgage securities remains at large. Private equity is being relied on to fix this problem in agovernment private partnership but no sigificant dent has been made in the toxic securities. Banks have made profits for one quarter, the outlook has improved and bank stock prices got a boost, but underlying problems remain. The loss in GDP this first quarter of 2009 compared to the prior year is 6% which is much better than the the 15-16 % drop in Germany and Japan, and 21% in Mexico. And the steep drops in unemployment are moderating. But large numbers of foreclosures continue with no dent in this in sight. And stimulus expenditures are only slowly trickling through, see the link to this. And the situation can only be described as improving but fragile....

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If there is no good succession in Medvedev's view the economic and social development of Russia will slow down significantly, for this reason the First Deputy Prime Minister under Putin puts a lot of significance on getting a good leader in place to continue the development progress of recent years. It is interesting that the thought process behind the remarks shows that the person has reflected a lot on these things, on leadership and good succession and its role in development, on a government and the importance of a good constitution and getting the best out of it, on studying the experience of other countries and being aware of their historical development, the role of a national leader, the constitution and everybody abiding by it, on corruption and its presence in latent and other forms and its different character in different societies. He talks about the importance of a Presidential system for Russia with strong presidential power, and the complete unsuitability of a parliamentary republic for Russia because it appears that the government could end up being weak with a many party coalition, especially in Russia at this time where there are many parties and factions each would be jockeying for power. Coalition governments would not accomplish much leading to stalled economic and social development. Manufacturing is very important to Russia, and adding a high portion of the value added to products is very important,  that Medvedev understands. It appears he has reflected on a lot of things that matter to Russia's development, and would make a different kind of President than Putin. He just might carry forward Russia's development for the next 8 years in a proper manner. From the standpoint of oil prices and availability of supplies, a good environment for cooperation in the energy sector between foreign companies and Russian companies, it appears that Medvedev would offer good leadership for the next 8 years in a Medvedev- Putin combination as President and Prime Minister, a Medvedev-Putin administration. This would also be true in the manufacturing sector in the expanding industries like automobiles and others. ...

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Chile's experience in Latin America stands out for the painful experience of the dictatorship years and the mismanagement of the economy by the government preceding it. The governments of the last 20 years of the Concertacion have studied the mistakes of these years and corrected them to aremarkable degree, like no other country in Latin America. The new politicians decided that the economy had to be managed so that inflation was under control and these Concertacion administrations produced budget surpluses in all but 4 years says Finance Minister Velasco. Velasco himself was 13 years old when the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet was set up, and his father a law professor had to leave the country for criticizing human rights abuses. He studied economics at Columbia University, and his principal focus there was he says, " to understand how did this happen to Chile and how do we make sure it will nhot happen again." His finding was that runaway inflation had created so much unrest among the people that coup plots could take place, and that political stability could not be maintained without good management of the economy. It also meant that Chile must avoid extremes, try to take amoderate position, which meant preserving the free market reforms that had taken place, and introducing policy measures, projects and investment which helped to bring up the vast majority of the people including the least well off of society. Velasco also studied the history of Latin American economies with their boom and bust cycle, the situation in countries especially Argentina and sometimes in Brazil and other countries since the fifties. He found as he says that when " a country seems very creditworthy, everyone wants to lend to you, capital flows in and consumption booms." At some point excessive amounts of capital flow in which cannot be absorbed and is wasted in unproductive ways, which becomes adebt burden as the bust part of the cycle takes hold. So Chile has been careful to control speculative inflows of capital. But Velaco went further. In 2006 he left a Professorship at Harvard University to become finance minister of Chile under President Ms. Bachelet. Copper prices were surging and Velasco insisted on caution. In 2006 he pushed through a law requiring the annual budget to be based on an independedt committtee's estimate of the average price of copper in the next 10 years. Any copper income above the budgeted price goes into a savings fund maintained outside the country. In 2007 the copper price used in the calculation was $1.21 a pound, while the market price was $3.23 a pound. The profits $6 billion for 2007 went into the rainy day fund, which is invested conservatively in government bonds or money market instruments denominated in dollars, euros and yen. This fund is now at$20 billion. What is remarkable for Velasco is the way this was executed. The price used was conservative, the political pressures from unions and students and other groups was resisted effectively, and the whole exercize was carried out to successful conclusion even as popular support for the government dropped. When the crisi hit in December 2007 copper prices plummeted. Velasco announced a stimulus package, getting the $4 billion stimulus package through both Houses of Congress in January 2009. Chile expects only adrop of 0.5% in GDP in 2009 year over year. $500 million was given to stae owned bank BancoEstado, which reduced consumer lending rates by half. The package offers subsidies for businesses to hire younger workers, $700 million for large infrastructure program designed to create 60,000 jobs in road paving, airport upgrades and housing construction. And 1.7 million families, the poorest 40% of the population received cash stipends from the government equivalent to $70, with another stipend due in August....

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This report in the NYT says Hillary Clinton has studied policy briefings, academic papers and taken advice from 200 policy experts, including experts from Bill Clinton's administration such as Alan Blinder, all in an effort to define her own policy positions on issues facing the U.S. This happens at a time different from the period of slow growth when Bill Clinton ran against George H.W. Bush. Since then middle class families face the added problems of not being able to keep up with the rising cost of college education, health care, child care, low interest rates on savings and volatile markets dampening savings growth. For working class Americans in the middle class during Bill Clinton's time in office the problems take the shape of a sharp decline in the manufacturing wages that once supported a middle class life in industrial states of the midwestern U.S., with global competition doing the damage, and few solutions available except improving technology and technical skill of the workforce to compete in higher end products. Consider the points made by Janet Yellen, the Fed chairwoman at a Boston Fed conference in Oct. 2014- Fed information for 2013 showing the average net worth of the lower half of American families representing 62 million households is $11,000. Only this conceals the situation facing one fourth of these families who have zero wealth or negative net worth, and a significant fraction owing more on their homes than they are worth. Hillary Clinton told a audience at the New School in Greenwich Village in New York, this is the defining economic challenge of our time. " We must raise incomes for hard-working Americans so they can afford a middle class life. This will be my mission from the first day I'm president to the last."...

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Detail about Tata's $2500 car. What it looks like- a jelly bean small in front, larger in the back for aerodynamics, 30-35 horsepower, with bearings good for 45 mph, top speed 75 mph, trunk in front to hold a briefcase and battery, rear mounted engine with continuous variable transmission, a hollowed out steering wheel shaft, engine designed by Bosch 600 to 660 cubic centimetres 35 hp. Tata CEO, Ratan Tata, says in a interview the car will do far better on emissions than today's low end cars, and that the emissions standards were much easier to meet than the crash and safety tests, because of the lightness of the vehicle. Todays lower emissions standards in developing countries makes it easier by not having to use more expensive technologies. Electronic sourcing and internet auctions are used by Tata to a greater degree, 30-40 % of parts sourced this way compared to 10-15% by other larger carmakers. This helps meet the aggressive cost target. On the safety isssue its interesting to note that most of the people buying this car will be millions of motorcycle families and individuals (typically a couple of people can ride an Indian motorcycle). They may be safer in a light car than on a motorcycle. This has to be seen in the particular context of India. Renault-Nissan used the experience of lowcost car engineering techniques and secrets from its Logan car made in Romania and transferred it to its other models. Tata started with a clean sheet of paper, asked the quesion what they really had to have and was there some other way. It was Ratan Tata's dream to build a car in 1 lakh or 100,000 rupees or about $2500. The project had all out backing and tested Indian engineers ingenuity. The Tata effort will be studied by carmakers from around the world. Bosch does not underestimate the value of this business, as the car will target a market of hundreds of millions of people in India and China and developing countries. Ariba a supplier to Toyota, and BMW a supplier to Tata, helped Tata buy parts through electronic sourcing. China's Cherry Automobile company, another pioneer, had an Austrian firm help it design its engine for its small car. Tata worked with German company Bosch on the engine. And both must have used cutting edge technology but with a different goals and specifications to achieve unique tasks....

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This editorial in the NYT says Bill Clinton moved the Democratic Party to the centre in 1992. In 2016 about 25 years later, after the removal of the Glass Steagall Act led to the 2008 global financial crisis and a deep recession, after the trade relations with China led to loss of U.S. manufacturing jobs over two decades and the hollowing out of industry in the midwest, things have changed. The revolution led by Bernie Sanders, a shrinking middle class, smaller access to college education for the middle and working class, and wide disparities in income, are putting the Democratic Party closer to its roots and the days of FDR. The Democratic Party platform calls for a 21st century Glass Steagall Act to separate normal banking from investment banking, opposes the TPP to prevent any further export of jobs overseas, and goes for a $15 minimum wage. This was also evident at the opening day of the Democratic National Convention when Sanders told the gathering in Philadelphia that even though he was not the candidate, these are the planks of the platform that Hillary Clinton will be pushing for in her presidency. What the editorial does not point out is that the Republican economic platform also calls for reinstatement of Glass Steagall Act, opposes TPP and opposes any loss of American jobs to overseas locations. It differs on the minimum wage leaving it to the states, and it is likely to skew tax cuts towards the wealthy, but also possibly removing the lower income brackets from taxes as Britain has done under the Conservative Party. Both parties today are looking for support from the middle and working class and have directed their appeal to these two groups which are in upheaval. The election of Trudeau in Canada recently also followed this trend, after the hollowing out of Canadian industry in Ontario and Quebec in a similiar pattern as in the midwestern U.S.  ...

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As remedies for the $1.6 trillion federal budget deficit for 2010, which says Hubbard threatens to compromise Americas economic future, set agggressive targets for reducing discretionary spending limiting growth to 2%. Hubbard also wants to see 1% reduction in projected entitlement spending growth for Social Security and Medicare. This can be done progressively, he says, by lowering the growth in spending for middle and upper income households and strengthening the safey net for lower income people. And third he would have a broad based consumption tax to pay for added social spending. Hubbard was adviser to president George W. Bush and is Dean at Columbia Business School.

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Seib points out why the current political landscape with the popularity of Trump and Sanders reflects demographic, economc and social changes in America compared to when Geroge H.W. Bush won the election in 1988 and Bill Clinton won in 1992. The Republican party is more populist, with older Americans, more Southern and conservative, making it harder for Jeb Bush or Wall Street backed candidates. The Democratic Party more liberal, more popular on both the east and west coast of the U.S., with younger Americans, diverse demographic groups, making it harder for Hillary Clinton as an establishment candidate. A Journal/NBC poll of Oct. 2015 shows 28% of Republicans describing their views as very conservative, and 26% of Democrats saying they are very liberal. Yet there is another aspect that will show up once the primaries are over. And this is the steady group of somewhat conservative and moderate combined in the Republican Party of 64%, and the steady group of somewhat liberal and moderate in the Democratic Party of 62% in the 2015 Journal/NBC poll. The moderates are up from 26% in the above 1990 poll to 31% in the 2015 poll for the Republican Party, and from 26% to 33% in the Democratic Party. So that one sees about a quarter of people polled in each party pushing for fringe views and a countervailing trend for moderate or close to moderate views with about two thirds support in the 2015 Journal/NBC poll for each party....

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When asked about gas prices and about inflation as well as about the recession Edward Lazear Chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisors takes a rather laid back response. Unemployment Benefits extension - with the labor market at 4.8% unemployment he thinks the job market is still tight. On inflation he thinks food prices increases were specific to 2007 and that inflation is relatively under control even though he says inflation numbers at 4.3% for the past 12 months is higher than the average for the last couple of years. His reasoning is that core inflation is low and the increase in energy and food prices were idiosyncratic specific to 2007. But the higher prices of food appear to be here for the next couple of years worldwide as demand grows and better nutrition around the world and energy prices are still pushed by overseas demand that by Lazear's own views have not slackened. And prices are up in China pushing up prices of cheaper imports and prices at your local Walmart. So how is inflation relatively under control?...

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This analysis by Mackintosh in WSJ points out that the low to negative interest  policy of the ECB has hurt savers, bank profits, and makes the ECB unpopular, yet it has shown tangible signs of success in creating jobs. This is true even though unemployment in the EU is still over 10% in some countries. He says that the unemployment is back to where it was in Nov. 1998 before the euro. There are 7.5 million jobs created in EU since beginning of 2014, the point at which ECB went to ultra low interest rates. This is above the 6.3 million created in the U.S. upto 1st quarter 2016. Big difference now is that companies and households are borrowing as rates fell. Inflation at 0.2% in August 2016 for EU is a weak spot, but considering where the EU was just 2-3 years before in 2013, the change is a largely positive one.

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Angela Merkel's call to the Greek president calling for a referendum vote on Greece's wishes to remain in the eurozone. This is denounced by Syriza and the centre left parties. Merkel denies she made the call, but Greece's president says the call was made.

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The European Central Bank left all its interest rates unchanged on September 7, 2016. No changes were made to asset purchase program, which will run until March 2017 or beyond as needed. The ECB left interest rates at 0% for its lending operations, and for overnight deposits at 0.4%.  Inflation is a special concern, as inflation was at 0.2% for August. Business activity and investment in the EU and in the U.S. is weak, and Brexit is still a concern.

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Car sales in Germany are up 40% from ayear ago. This is not about to happen in the USA. The cash for clunkers program in Germany is broad and less complicated.In Germany eligible cars have to 9 years old and the subsidy covered the purchase of any new car, regardless of size and fuel efficiency. In the US the program just signed by President Obama covers a narrow profile of customers. In the US customers who benefitare economically challenged and in the midst of adeep recession. Cars can't be over 25 years old, and can't have a combined highway and city fuel economy rating of more than 18 miles per gallon as calculated by EPA. To get the full $4500 credit customers must buy either a new truck or sport utility rated 5mpg higher than the clunker or scrapped vehicle, or a passenger car rated at least 10 mpg higher.And the credit is given instead of the trade in value, so if the trade in value is higher it doesn't help. The German government is giving away upto $4500 but it started out with 1.5 billion euros to get 600,000 clunkers off the road, but because of the popularity of the program has expanded it to 5 billion euros for 2 million cars and extended it to end of 2009. The US program only has $1 billion for 250,000 cars or one eight of what the Germans are doing for amuch larger car market. Because of the dire shape Detroit and much of the midwest is in, because of the slump in the auto industry, this may be a mistake and a missed opportunity to do what the Europeans are doing, and get an even bigger impact. The American car market and industry is taking a severe blow from the deep recession. Because of the depressed region the impact of a real clunkers for cash program that targets a broader profile, with bigger financing and designed to give a boost to the market, could make a real difference. At this point it is more of a program designed to help people turn in their gas guzzling trucks for passenger cars, and those driving a $200 car are not likely to be the kind of customer who goes out and buys a new car say dealers. See the link to Alan Blinder's stimulus proposal in July 29, 2008, that suggested a $20 billion program even before the current crisis. The present program has only $1 billion....